The trends continue
to be pretty strong.
Age - Horses aged
8-12.
No horse outside of
this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar
(aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant
Murphy (aged 13) who won in 1923. Horses younger than 7 are now
prevented from competing, they couldn't win anyway and need
protecting from over-enthusiastic trainers and owners.
The last 10 winners
were all aged between 8 and 11 years old. Amberleigh House won
well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995,
however horses outside the 8-11 age range have just 3 places from 86
runners since then.
10 Year Trends
(won-placed-runners)
aged 7 0-0-22
aged 8 3-6-65
aged 9 2-8-112
aged 10 2-8-100
aged 11 3-3-56
aged 12 0-1-29
aged 13 0-2-10
aged 14 0-0-2
Distance Win -
Winning form over at least 3 miles, preferably 3m1f+
Rule The World
was a maiden when winning in 2016. He has finished 2nd in the
Irish Grand National the season before, so had no stamina problems,
just race winning ones.
Previously on Grand
National blog:
* Not since Gay
Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a
race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won
a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 4m 21/2f.
* Apart from 2016
when Rule The World was a maiden (albeit with marathon placed
form).
To go a bit further,
15 of the previous 16 winners had won a chase over 3m 1/2f or more,
and 12 of the last 15 had a top 3 finish over 3m 21/2f
or further. The fences may be 'easier' and the distance 'shorter'
(one through moving the start 200yds and the other when all
racecourses were remeasured) but stamina is still extremely important
at a marathon trip.
Weight Carried
Only 3 horses since
1983 had carried more than 11 stone 1lb. Those 3 have come since
2010, possibly due to the fences being a bit easier and the race
shorter. However in the last 5 renewals, very few horses with weight
were up there at the business end.
In 2013 only 1 horse
within 50 lengths carried more than 11st.
In 2014 only 1 horse
within 115 lengths carried more than 11st.
In 2015 only 1 horse
within 90 lengths carried more than 11st. Excluding the winner.
In 2016 no horse
within 147 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb. The ground was soft.
In 2017 no horse
within 66 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb.
In 2018 only 1 horse
within 55 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb. The ground was heavy.
In total, just 5
horses were within 523 lengths of the winner in the last 6 years. So
low weights are still preferred.
Race Fitness -
Must have run within the previous 56 days
One For Arthur
was off for 84 days. As we said above, every winner was off for a
maximum of 56 days since at least 1988. Training methods are better
now, so maybe something will win after even further off soon, but it
will still pay to side with race fit horses.
Rough Quest had
a break of only 16 days in 1996.
Form - Had
finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to
be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't
want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly
out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in
the January of that year. Of course Auroras Encore (2013)
wasn't placed in his previous 7 races to throw that out of the window
but he'd run well in some decent Graded Handicaps. His last form was
the previous April with a quality 2nd in the Scottish National. All
other winners since 1988 had top 3 form.
Experience - Have
run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good
jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since
Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10
Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, the
benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording others the
same.
Class - Have won
a chase worth at least £17,000
You still need to be
classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. The
horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised
for this trend. Pineau De Reu won a £13,000 race, so leeway
can be given if they tick most of the other boxes, but every other
winner since Party Politics in 1992 had won a £17,000 Chase.
(Apart from Rule The World, who ran in 7 chases worth £40k or
more, and possibly would have won the Galway Plate if he hadn't
stumbled between the last 2 fences).
Season Runs -
Have raced between 3 and 6 times since August
Missed prep races,
setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it
tough to win the Grand National. This year we’ve had an
unseasonally warm winter and an equine influenza out break to give
yet more excuses.
Miinnehoma
had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner
since had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but
was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet. One For
Arthur (3) added to the 3 run list (now 2).
We are looking for
horses that have been kept ticking over throughout the season without
going over the top.
Conclusion:
Winning Profile
Aged 8-12
Won over 3 miles or
more over fences
Top 3 finish in a 3¼
mile Chase
Last run between
20-84 days ago
9+ Chases
Won a race worth
more than £13k to the winner
Between 3-6 runs
since August
If you want to
refine it further
'Perfect' Profile
Aged 8 to 11
Won a 3m 1f+ Chase
Top 3 in a 3m 4f+
Chase
Carrying less than
11-02
Last run between
20-56 days ago
10+ Chases
Won a race worth
more than £29k to the winner
Between 4-6 runs
since August
Lastly, the last few
years, Bet365 have been giving half of total stakes back on each way
bets (up to £125). You must have had an account with them by the the
wednesday to qualify. There's no guarantee that they will do the same
this year, but it's worth opening an account with them if you don't
have one already.
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