We all know by now that the winner of the Grand National hits certain trends year after year and isn't the "lottery" we are told it is. Lets start with an easy one.
Age:
The Grand National horses need to have stamina and a little speed to win, younger horses don't have the stamina built up yet and the older horses get round but far too slowly, so thats why the since 1940, 8-12 year olds have won every race.
The last 7 year old to win was Bogskar in 1940. The last 13 year old was Sergeant Murphy in 1923. In fact the last 6 winners were aged 9-10, but for now we want horses aged 8-12.
Bye Bye to Quinz (7), Quolibet (7), Hello Bud (13)
Stamina:
The last horse without a win at 3 miles or more was Gay Trip in 1970. If you haven't won at 3 miles, how do you win at 4 1/2 miles.
Laters Or Noir De Somoza, In Compliance, Santa's Son, Piraya
Class:
Right. Class is important. Party Politics (1992) was the last horse that hadn't won a race worth £17,000 to the winner. Horses must have some sort of 'Big Race' form. Bad horses don't win.
Horses not good enough are Dooneys Gate, Becauseicouldn'tsee, Grand Slam Hero, That's Rhythm
and Skippers Brig
Form:
You must have some sort of form to win the National. The last 21 winners had at least a Top 3 finish in one of their last 3 runs.
This now rules out last year's winner Don't Push It, Vic Venturi, Big Fella Thanks, Niche Market, Bluesea Cracker and Can't Buy Time
Fitness:
The last 21 winners all had a race under their belts within the last 49 days. Horses from a longer lay off are sharp enough for this race.
Out go Majestic Concorde, The Tother One, Calgary Bay, State Of Play and Royal Rosa.
Experience:
You need to have jumped a fair few fences to win the National. I'm going to say 9 races or more. This rules out the favourite The Midnight Club, Surface To Air and Ornais
Weight:
Finally we get to the tricky one. Weight. Horses carrying more than 11 stone just couldn't win the National but that was when you had lots of horses running off bottom weight of 10 stone. Now that the quality of runners has improved, and the bottom weights are bigger than 10-00, 11-00+ winners are coming into it. This years bottom weight is 10-02, which is lower than normal and no horse has won carrying more than 11-05 since Red Rum in 1977. So rule out horses carrying more than 11-05.
Good-bye to Tidal Bay and What A Friend, far too good for this race.
This leaves us with 12 good chances. I want to get that down to something manageable so I'm going to add another stat in.
Winners of this race have raced at least 4 times in the season. Horses with an interupted campaign just aren't able to tun to the best of their ability and are founds wanting at the end.
Out go horses with 3 runs Ballabriggs, Silver By Nature, Oscar Time, Comply Or Die, West End Rocker and Arbor Supreme. Golden Kite has actually run 'too many' times but a few of them were in the summer and he's border line. He's also 100/1 or so, so unlikely to win.
Back to the Age thing. I really want to be on the side of 9 & 10yo's. So reluctantly I'm chucking out Chief Dan George and Character Building, who are both 11.
This leaves 3 horses who have 'perfect' profiles...
Backstage (14/1, Stan James & William Hill), Killyglen (66/1, Bet365, Skybet, Vcbet, Coral) and King Fontaine (100/1, totesport)
There you have it..... 12 on the list and 3 shortlisted 'winners'.
Most bookies online are going 5 places. vcbet are 6 places. Avoid Betfred, Coral and William Hill as they are all paying 4 (I imagine Ladbrokes will too). If you are betting in the shop, please take a price at the counter. Most of the time it will be bigger than the Starting Price.
Good luck
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