1. Don't Push It (9/1fav). Last years winner and new favourite. Carries too much weight and is out of form this year.
2. Tidal Bay (40/1). Too much weight, but may be staying on late on for a place.
3. What A Friend (14/1). 4th in Gold Cup. Grade 1 winner last year, but surely carrying too much weight. Would be a fairytale for Sir Alex.
4. Vic Venturi (50/1). Always looked the right sort to win and should be up at the front, but too high in the weights now and out of form. Place prospects if he gets round.
5. Majestic Concorde (33/1). Hasn't run for 3 months and too inexperienced for this, and I haven't even menitoned the weight its carrying. Avoid
6. Or Noir De Somoza (66/1). French raider. No run for 11 weeks and too high in the weights and hasn't won over 3 miles... Avoid!!
7. Dooneys Gate (66/1). No run for 66 days and has won a decent race yet. Possible place prospects, but unlikely.
8. Big Fella Thanks (18/1). 6th, 2 years ago when too young, then 4th last year. Should be up there but form figures of 2P44 this seson will have to be improved on to win this.
9. The Tother One (80/1). Only 3 runs this season is a negative and with no run for 10 weeks, will have to be ultra-fit to win.
10. Ballabriggs (18/1). Geared towards this race all season. Only 3 seasonal runs (all in 2011) is the main negative but a big run expected.
2. Tidal Bay (40/1). Too much weight, but may be staying on late on for a place.
3. What A Friend (14/1). 4th in Gold Cup. Grade 1 winner last year, but surely carrying too much weight. Would be a fairytale for Sir Alex.
4. Vic Venturi (50/1). Always looked the right sort to win and should be up at the front, but too high in the weights now and out of form. Place prospects if he gets round.
5. Majestic Concorde (33/1). Hasn't run for 3 months and too inexperienced for this, and I haven't even menitoned the weight its carrying. Avoid
6. Or Noir De Somoza (66/1). French raider. No run for 11 weeks and too high in the weights and hasn't won over 3 miles... Avoid!!
7. Dooneys Gate (66/1). No run for 66 days and has won a decent race yet. Possible place prospects, but unlikely.
8. Big Fella Thanks (18/1). 6th, 2 years ago when too young, then 4th last year. Should be up there but form figures of 2P44 this seson will have to be improved on to win this.
9. The Tother One (80/1). Only 3 runs this season is a negative and with no run for 10 weeks, will have to be ultra-fit to win.
10. Ballabriggs (18/1). Geared towards this race all season. Only 3 seasonal runs (all in 2011) is the main negative but a big run expected.
11. The Midnight Club (11/1). Ruby Walsh on board, but is inexperienced. Only 2 runs this season is big negative.
12. Niche Market (22/1). looks the sort to win this, not in form but excuses for that (all good Class 1s). Pulled Up last year, but Irish GN winner in 2009.
13. Silver By Nature (18/1). Won the GN trial at Haydock but only 3 runs this season. Big chance if he can overcome that trend.
14. BACKSTAGE (NAP) (14/1). The most perfect horse in the race. Now all he has to do is WIN. Trainer won this in 2007 and jockey won in 1999.
15. Chief Dan George (50/1). Nice horse, fell at Cheltenham early on. A little on old side but good place chances.
16. Calgary Bay (40/1). Was decent a couple of years ago but not the same horse since. Off track for 10 weeks is his only negative.
17 Killyglen (66/1). Another perfect horse, only problem is he hasn't done too much and his last win was at this meeting 2 years ago.
18. Oscar Time (14/1). 2nd in last season's Irish National, only 10 Chase starts barely gets him in and only 3 runs this season.. Better prospects elsewhere.
19. Quinz (18/1). Good looking horse and may win it next year, but too inexperienced to win this...probably
20. Becauseicouldntsee (33/1). Not good enough even without being inexperienced and without a run in 3 months. Add his only 3m win was in a Point to Point in Ireland and we have an early faller in the making.... if it wins, I'll eat my proverbial hat.
12. Niche Market (22/1). looks the sort to win this, not in form but excuses for that (all good Class 1s). Pulled Up last year, but Irish GN winner in 2009.
13. Silver By Nature (18/1). Won the GN trial at Haydock but only 3 runs this season. Big chance if he can overcome that trend.
14. BACKSTAGE (NAP) (14/1). The most perfect horse in the race. Now all he has to do is WIN. Trainer won this in 2007 and jockey won in 1999.
15. Chief Dan George (50/1). Nice horse, fell at Cheltenham early on. A little on old side but good place chances.
16. Calgary Bay (40/1). Was decent a couple of years ago but not the same horse since. Off track for 10 weeks is his only negative.
17 Killyglen (66/1). Another perfect horse, only problem is he hasn't done too much and his last win was at this meeting 2 years ago.
18. Oscar Time (14/1). 2nd in last season's Irish National, only 10 Chase starts barely gets him in and only 3 runs this season.. Better prospects elsewhere.
19. Quinz (18/1). Good looking horse and may win it next year, but too inexperienced to win this...probably
20. Becauseicouldntsee (33/1). Not good enough even without being inexperienced and without a run in 3 months. Add his only 3m win was in a Point to Point in Ireland and we have an early faller in the making.... if it wins, I'll eat my proverbial hat.
21. Comply Or Die (66/1). 2008 winner and 2009 R/Up. 12th last year and 12yo now. Likely to finish but far behind the winner.
22. Quolibet (200/1). An inexperienced horse that hasn't won over 3 miles. Pray you don't get this in the sweepstake.
23. Grand Slam Hero (100/1). Surely outclassed, and ran plenty of times over the summer. Off the track for 2 months rounds off why he can't win.
24. State Of Play (33/1). Placed in both his Grand National runs. Not run since then and fitness taken on trust. No reason why he can't be up there, but he can't win it can he?
25. King Fontaine (100/1). Trend perfect (just) and a good 5th at Cheltenham. Only 9 Chase starts (4 wins) means he's inexperienced and only won an £18,000 race. Place chances?
26. In Compliance (66/1). Was potentially a very good horse a couple of years ago, but off track with injuries. Better over 2 1/2m and not this slog.
27. Hello Bud (40/1). Won the Becher Chase in November (over these fences) and former winner of Scottish GN. 5th in last year's GN. But 13yo now, so that rules him out and only 3 runs this season (off track 12 weeks) big negatives on top.
28. West End Rocker (33/1). Won't rule this one out. Fits all the trends, but 3 runs this season a small negative.
29. Santa's Son (200/1). Might finish around Christmas time. No wins over 3 miles and 7 runs this season is over the optimum.
30. Bluesea Cracker (25/1). No female winner since 1951, but she did win the Irish GN last season @ 25/1 so trip should be ok. 3 runs since and out of the frame each time is not what a Grand National winner looks like though.
22. Quolibet (200/1). An inexperienced horse that hasn't won over 3 miles. Pray you don't get this in the sweepstake.
23. Grand Slam Hero (100/1). Surely outclassed, and ran plenty of times over the summer. Off the track for 2 months rounds off why he can't win.
24. State Of Play (33/1). Placed in both his Grand National runs. Not run since then and fitness taken on trust. No reason why he can't be up there, but he can't win it can he?
25. King Fontaine (100/1). Trend perfect (just) and a good 5th at Cheltenham. Only 9 Chase starts (4 wins) means he's inexperienced and only won an £18,000 race. Place chances?
26. In Compliance (66/1). Was potentially a very good horse a couple of years ago, but off track with injuries. Better over 2 1/2m and not this slog.
27. Hello Bud (40/1). Won the Becher Chase in November (over these fences) and former winner of Scottish GN. 5th in last year's GN. But 13yo now, so that rules him out and only 3 runs this season (off track 12 weeks) big negatives on top.
28. West End Rocker (33/1). Won't rule this one out. Fits all the trends, but 3 runs this season a small negative.
29. Santa's Son (200/1). Might finish around Christmas time. No wins over 3 miles and 7 runs this season is over the optimum.
30. Bluesea Cracker (25/1). No female winner since 1951, but she did win the Irish GN last season @ 25/1 so trip should be ok. 3 runs since and out of the frame each time is not what a Grand National winner looks like though.
31. That's Rhythm (150/1). Off the track for 4 months and has yet to win a decent quality Chase. Add in form of 059 in his last 3 starts and you can see why he won't be taking home any money this time.
32. Surface To Air (100/1). 1 run since Jun 2008 (when he won the Summer National at Uttoxeter (4m1f). This is only his 5th Chase start. These are stunning negatives. Might be a contender if he had more experience.
33. Piraya (200/1). Out of form and doesn't stay more than 3 miles let alone this. 13th last year about a lap behind.
34. Can't Buy Time (100/1). Tony McCoy doesn't fancy him even though he does fit many of the trends. Badly out of form, so winning this would be a huge shock. Avoid!!
35. Character Building (33/1). Nina Carberry on board and a grey. Likely to start shorter than this at 4.15 tomorrow with all those housewives on it. A staying on 7th last year. Now an 11yo, a slight negative, but that's it's only negative so may get placed if raced closer to the pace.
36. Ornais (125/1). Too inexperienced after being off the track for over 2 years until Feb. Can't win.
37. Arbor Supreme (20/1). 2nd to The Midnight Club in Feb. Hits all the trends apart from having 4+ runs this season. Decent place claims.
38. Royal Rosa (100/1). A 12yo now and retiring after the race. Would be a fairytale end to a decent career, but off for 3 months rules the old git out of the running.
39. Skippers Brig (33/1). Beat Ballabriggs and Chief Dan George last time but that was completely different to this. Not won a Chase worth £17,000 or more is a big negative, and only 3 runs this season is not good either. May get a place.
40. Golden Kite (80/1). Hits all the major trends, but has run 7 times since last April. Would be a shock if he won, but there are worse horses out there.
32. Surface To Air (100/1). 1 run since Jun 2008 (when he won the Summer National at Uttoxeter (4m1f). This is only his 5th Chase start. These are stunning negatives. Might be a contender if he had more experience.
33. Piraya (200/1). Out of form and doesn't stay more than 3 miles let alone this. 13th last year about a lap behind.
34. Can't Buy Time (100/1). Tony McCoy doesn't fancy him even though he does fit many of the trends. Badly out of form, so winning this would be a huge shock. Avoid!!
35. Character Building (33/1). Nina Carberry on board and a grey. Likely to start shorter than this at 4.15 tomorrow with all those housewives on it. A staying on 7th last year. Now an 11yo, a slight negative, but that's it's only negative so may get placed if raced closer to the pace.
36. Ornais (125/1). Too inexperienced after being off the track for over 2 years until Feb. Can't win.
37. Arbor Supreme (20/1). 2nd to The Midnight Club in Feb. Hits all the trends apart from having 4+ runs this season. Decent place claims.
38. Royal Rosa (100/1). A 12yo now and retiring after the race. Would be a fairytale end to a decent career, but off for 3 months rules the old git out of the running.
39. Skippers Brig (33/1). Beat Ballabriggs and Chief Dan George last time but that was completely different to this. Not won a Chase worth £17,000 or more is a big negative, and only 3 runs this season is not good either. May get a place.
40. Golden Kite (80/1). Hits all the major trends, but has run 7 times since last April. Would be a shock if he won, but there are worse horses out there.
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