DAY
ONE
Skybet
Supreme Novices' Hurdle – Grade 1 - 2m 1/2f
10-year Trends
10/10 Had an
Official Rating (OR) of at least 136, or were un-rated (less than 3
Hurdle runs).
10/10 Had won at
the Distance.
10/10 Won at
least 50% of their Hurdles.
10/10 Had run
between 2 and 5 times over Hurdles.
9/10 Had run
within the last 52 days. 8 within 41 days.
9/10 Had
achieved a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of at least 137. Or an Adjusted
RPR of 144 or more.
9/10 Had run
less than 11 times in total in career.
9/10 Were aged
either 5 or 6.
8/10 Were rated
within 13lbs of the RPR Top Rated.
8/10 Won last
time out (LTO). One was 2nd and another 3rd.
7/10 Had
finished Top 4 in a Grade 1 Hurdle or won a Grade 2 Hurdle. The other
3 had not run in one.
Additionally
36 of the last 40
winners were aged 5 or 6.
Only one 4
year-old has won in the last 41 years. [Hors La Loi III in 1999]
19 of the last 20
winners had run within the last 68 days.
17 of the last 20
winners had run within the last 45 days.
16 of the last 18
winners had won last time.
18 of the last 21
places were filled by ex-bumper runners, but Vautour (Fr Hdls) &
Vsniteux (PtP) 2014.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo 0-1-5
5yo 5-12-90
6yo 4-6-67
7yo 1-1-20
8yo 0-0-3
9yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins 3-0-16
Nicky Henderson 0-8-18
Main
Contenders - 10
year trends winner averaged
4.4
stars.
Alvisio Ville ***** 16/1
12 lengths behind Nichols Canyon last time over
2m2f. So fails a couple of trends, but has a chance back at 2 miles.
Bentelimar *** 25/1
Looks a little short of top class for this.
Douvan ***** 7/4fav
Not sure he's beaten too much and has been off
59 days. Not too much to worry about there but price is a little
short.
Jollyalan **** 8/1
Decent 2nd out of Novice company
last time in a Listed race. Place chance if jumping improves
L'Ami Serge **** 7/2
Failed to win any of his 6 French Hurdles
(similar to Vautour last year) and therefore looks more
exposed than most for this race, but been a revelation since coming
to Nicky Henderson. Off the track for 56 days.
Qewy **** 14/1
Won convincingly at Newbury last time, but that
was only a Class 3 Novice Hurdle. More to do here
Seedling *** 20/1
Improved for every run in lower class hurdles,
seems to handle any ground, but has been off since the Open meeting
in December.
Shaneshill **** 12/1
Off the track 86 days when beaten at 4/9. Both
hurdle runs have been over further. Price is tempting, but should
find one or two too good.
Sizing John **** 33/1
Grade 1 winner at Christmas but not given a
great RPR for that. No run since either.
Some Plan **** 40/1
Steady stuff, but nothing too exciting. Beaten
by Seedling on penultimate start.
Tell Us More ***** 16/1
Turned over by stablemate McKinley last
time (65 days ago), No form on faster than soft is a worry.
Velvet Maker *** 100/1
Being beaten in lower grades won't help him.
Conclusions
There should be a decent pace, but nothing as
frenetic as usual. Douvan sets a decent standard but is too
short in the market. L'Ami Serge is better value at 7/2 and is
a solid win bet, but my each-way selection is for ALVISO VILLE
(16/1), who faded over 2m2f to 2 Neptune-bound horses last time out.
Racing
Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase – Grade 1 - 2m
10-year Trends
10/10 Aged
between 5 and 8 years old. Six 9 year olds have failed to make the
frame
9/10 OR of at
least 147 if not un-rated (less than 3 Chase runs).
9/10 Top 2 in
all Chase finishes
9/10 Rated within 6lbs of the RPR Top
Rated.
9/10 Best RPR of 153 or more. An
Adjusted RPR of 160 or more.
8/10 Ran to a Hurdles rating of 143
or more.
8/10 Had won at Cheltenham or had a
top 4 at a previous festival.
8/10 Had 3-5 Chase starts. The last 2
winners had 2 runs (Simonsig) and 1 run (Western Warhorse)
6/10 Won a Novice Chase at 2m or
2m1f. All 4 others had won over further (2m3-2m5).
Additionally
26 of the last 28 winners had finished
1st or 2nd on their last start.
22 of the last 24 winners started at
9/1 or less.
16 of the last 17 winners had not
unseated/fallen in their chase career.
13 of the last 15 winners had a hurdles
rating of 142+,
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-3-17
6yo 2-2-29
7yo 6-7-49
8yo 1-6-20
9yo 0-0-4
10yo 0-0-1
12yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky Henderson 2-1-8
Philip Hobbs 1-1-6
Henry de Bromhead 1-0-1
David Pipe 1-0-4
Willie Mullins 0-1-8
Paul Nicholls 0-1-11
Contenders –
10 year trends winner
averaged 3.9
stars.
Clarcam ** 14/1
Beat Vautour in
his last run, but was well beaten the time before that. Needs a lot
more.
Court
Minstrel *** 25/1
32 lengths behind
Vibrato Valtat, so not up to it on that evidence.
Dunraven
Storm *** 50/1
Can't really be
backing a 10 year-old here, and not going to get it all his own way
up front with Un
De Sceaux in the field.
God's
Own ** 40/1
Good horse over
further, should be out on his feet here.
Josses
Hill ***** 11/1
Not sure how he
fits the trends as well as he does. Won just 1 of his 3 Chases so
far, but both defeats were over 2m4f. Jumping has been sketchy at
best, however jockey reckons a good gallop will make him jump better.
Sail By The
Sea * 50/1
Not good enough.
Sgt
Reckless *** 20/1
Just the one Chase
start, an unusual season with a Hurdle and AW run afterwards, no up
to scratch so far.
Smashing ** 25/1
Shouldn't be good
enough for this.
Three
Kingdoms **** 25/1
Beaten by Vibrato
Valtat (½ length), before winning last time out. A couple of
minor fails on the trends, has place chances on the drying ground.
Un De
Sceaux **** 4/7fav
Worthy favourite,
slight negatives about his fall on début and him not having any
Cheltenham experience however he's rated up with the best on what
he's shown so far.
Vibrato
Valtat **** 6/1
Not done anything
wrong so far, however the worry may be more from his trainer who
doesn't seem to have any decent Novice 2-milers in the last few
years. No Cheltenham form and all wins in small fields.
Conclusions
After Western Warhorse piped up last year at 33/1, nothing should be
taken for granted. Only Josses Hill (11/1) is a five-star on
the trends. He hasn't looked great but must jump better here. However
any mistake and he's gone. Un de Sceaux is obviously going to
win with a clear round. With Vibrato Valtat (11/2) and THREE
KINGDOMS (25/1) so closely matched on form, a chance is taken on
the later at a price. (He's 11/1 w/o UDS and 8/1 w/o UDS/VV with
Bet365)
Ultima
Business Solutions Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 3m 1f
10-year Trends
10/10 Aged
between 7 and 10 years old.
10/10 OR between
129-145.
10/10 Won over 3
miles or more.
9/10 Carried
no more than 11-02 in weight.
8/10 Had run
within the last 47 days.
8/10 Finished
in the top 3 last time.
7/10 Had
run less than 10
times over fences.
Additionally
The last 16 winners were aged between 7 and 10.
14 or the last 15 winners were official rated no more than 143.
Holywell last year was 145.
Two horses aged 11 or more have placed since 1997. The Package (11)
was 3rd last year.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 0-3-14
7yo 4-8-36
8yo 3-2-44
9yo 1-9-48
10yo 2-4-35
11yo 0-2-23
12yo 0-0-6
13yo 0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Jonjo O'Neill 3-1-11
David Pipe 1-3-12
Alan King 1-1-9
Tony Martin 1-0-4
Colin Tizzard 1-0-5
Sue Smith 0-1-5
Philip Hobbs 0-1-6
Paul Nicholls 0-1-10
Venetia Williams 0-1-12
Main Contenders –
10 year trends winner
averaged 4.2
stars.
Black
Thunder *** 20/1
Too high in the handicap to be winning this, historically of course.
But Betbright Cup 5th last time not the worst form however
form round here is FF5.
Annacotty *** 20/1
Winning a Grade 3 Handicap last time means the handicapper probably
has him now. Should ensure there's a decent pace, but best to look
elsewhere for the winner.
Mendip
Express **** 14/1
Will Biddick takes of 3lbs, which gives him a nice weight and an
extra star. But place chances at best.
Theatre
Guide * 20/1
Not a 3 mile horse with a big weight. Avoid.
The Druids
Nephew ** 8/1
Has 3m form in the book, but more weight than your normal winner,
can't rule him out, but likely to find one or two better handicapped.
No
Planning **** 33/1
Seems to be lacking at this level, but passes many of the trends, so
won't put you off too much, however it's his course debut.
Cape
Tribulation *** 40/1
Decent horse on his day, but now 11. Can't have him now.
Monbeg
Dude ***** 25/1
Should be off his feet in this on the forecast ground. But ticks many
boxes.
Grand
Jesture *** 20/1
Yet to win over 3 miles or more, and ground could be a concern.
Ned
Stark ***** 8/1
Perfect on the trends. A bit worried that the ground is a little fast
for him now.
What A
Warrior *** 33/1
101 days away from racing,. 0 from 6 round here and that's just being
placed.
Lost
Legend **** 50/1
Won a Point-to-Point over 3 miles, but more required here.
Pendra *** 6/1fav
A 2m5f specialist off the track for 101 days and it's favourite. You
must be joking... lay lay lay
Indian
Castle ***** 25/1
Not impressed with any of his recent form. Last 3 mile win was 16
months ago.
Lamb Or
Cod **** 50/1
Kind of lost his way recently and seems to struggle in big fields.
Off for 88 days
Gevrey
Chambertin ***** 16/1
Record of P9P round here. 1St time blinkers on last time
for his Newbury win, been off for 83 days.
According To
Trev *** 50/1
Mixed record of late and too many letters in his form at the moment,
been off for 83 days.
Barrakilla **** 14/1
Off for 87 days and looks more of a 2m4f horse despite a 3m
Point-to-Point win to his name.
Smart
Freddy ***** 33/1
Perfect on the trends but done at a lower level. This is a lot
harder.
Shangani *** 50/1
Trying 3 miles in his last few starts without much success. Leave
alone.
Gallant
Oscar ***** 14/1
Been hudling this season until brought back over fences for the
Thystes Handicap Chase (28l 4th behind Djakadam) Was money
for him that day but all his form is on heavy or soft ground.
Dursey
Sound *** 40/1
Hasn't got to grips with 3 miles yet and is unlikely to start here.
Tenor
Nivernais *** 40/1
Another without 3 mile form, so looks like a no from me.
Azure
Fly **** 25/1
Getting closer at 3 miles, but still not managed a win. Ground will
be a plus in that respect.
Conclusions
I thought this was going to be easy. Just put all your money on Ned
Stark (8/1), but the drying ground is a slight worry. He's still
placepot material though so don't let me put you off, he has won on
good ground before.
I'm chucking in 2 against the field, the bottom weight AZURE FLY
(25/1) hasn't yet won over 3 miles, but isn't far off and will
appreciate the ground better than some. Back up at the top MENDIP
EXPRESS (16/1, betway, 14/1 general, but bet365, 5pl) ticks a lot
of boxes and will also love the ground after an outing over hurdles
last time.
Stan
James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy – Grade 1 – 2m 1/2f
10-year Trends
10/10 Had won at
the distance.
9/10 Had run
within the last 51 days.
9/10 Had an
Adjusted RPR of 166 or more or had achieved an RPR of 162 previously.
9/10 Had
achieved a RP Top Speed of 151 or more.
9/10 Were
rated within 8lbs of the RP Top Rated horse.
9/10 Had won a
Class 1 Hurdle that season, 5 won a Grade 1, 2 won a Grade 2 and 2
won a Listed race.
8/10 Were aged
between 6 and 8 years old. No horse aged 10 or more since Sea Pigeon
in 1980 & 1981.
8/10 Had
between 10 and 20 Hurdle runs. 2 exceptions had 5 and 6.
8/10 Had won a
Grade 1 Hurdle.
7/10 Had won
last time out.
Additionally
25 of the last
31 winners had won last time.
23 of the last
25 winners had won that season.
20 of the last
24 winners were from the first 5 in the betting.
19 of the last
23 winners had placed at a previous festival.
18 of the last
27 winners had won at Cheltenham.
The only
5-year-old to win since 1985 was Katchit in 2008.
Since 1951, only
4 winners were 9 or older. Only 2 winners were aged 10+
No reigning
Supreme Novice Winner has won since 1971.
Since 1993, only
1 winner had not run in that calendar year.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-6-28
6yo 3-5-34
7yo 3-3-24
8yo 2-4-19
9yo 1-2-8
10yo 0-0-5
11yo 0-0-6
12yo 0-0-4
13yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
N
Henderson 2-6-15
Willie
Mullins 2-1-8
Jessica
Harrington 1-1-4
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-3
Contenders
– average winner 4.3
stars
Arctic
Fire *** 18/1
A closing 2nd
to Hurricane Fly last time,
after Jezki's error
at the last. Has place chances.
Bertimont * Ran
The New One close in heavy ground last time.
Faugheen **** 11/10
fav
He's the one to
beat, but I'm worried that he's not run this year.
Hurricane Fly
**** 9/1
Double Champion
who's looked as good as ever this season. Have to oppose due to his
age and the drying ground.
Jezki
***** 9/2
Won on the 3rd
May, so just qualifies as a season winner. Put in his place by
Hurricane Fly in 3 runs since, but he was a little like that
last year and prefers the better ground.
Kitten
Rock ** 33/1
Progressive 5 year old, who's won his last 4 races, the last being a
Grade 2. Could run into a place, but doesn't tick enough boxes this
year.
The New
One *****
7/2
He's perfect on
the trends. Who knows if he'd have won last year, however he will
definitely be staying on, needs his
jumping to be spot on.
Vaniteux * 33/1
Lively
outsider at the start of the season after his 3rd
in the Supreme. Hasn't stepped up this season.
Conclusions
The market looks to have it spot on. I think THE NEW ONE (7/2)
is the value bet. Jezki is now a little too short, whether
they can get past Faugheen is another matter. I expect him to
take them round as there's no other pace-maker in this.
OLBG
(David Nicholson) Mares Hurdle – Grade 2 – 2m 4f
7-year 'Trends'
7/7 Aged between
5 and 10 years old. [5yos have the best win record, but only 1 has
placed]
7/7 Raced
between 5 and 16 times over Hurdles.
7/7 Rated within
23lbs of RP Top Rated. [Ideally within 5lbs]
6/7 Won over
2m4f or more. [Whiteoak won over 2m1f]
6/7 Had a Best
RPR of at least 142, adjusted to 156+.
6/7 Had won a
race worth £12k. [Whiteoak won a £6k race]
6/7 Won last
time.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo 0-0-3
5yo 2-1-23
6yo 1-6-37
7yo 1-3-27
8yo 1-2-18
9yo 1-1-7
10yo 1-0-3
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins 6-1-8
Nicky Henderson 0-2-8
Alan King 0-1-3
.
Contenders–
7
year
trends
winner averaged
4.4
stars
Annie
Power ***** 4/7fav
Classy mare, who would have gone to the World Hurdle if she'd not
been injured this season. The one to beat.
Bitofapuzzle *** 25/1
Looks
like she'll want further on this ground, but can't be ruled out of
the frame.
Carole's
Spirit **** 16/1
Versatile but more of a 3 mile horse. Should turn round form with
Bitofapuzzle, but likely to find a couple too good. Course
début.
Centasia * 66/1
Surely not good enough.
Dark
Spirit ** 50/1
11
lengths behind Bitofapuzzle and
Carole's Spirit last
time. But drop back in trip to suit.
Emily
Gray ** 50/1
Not good enough and beaten by 7 lengths by Glens Melody and
now 5lbs worse off
Glens
Melody **** 9/2
Looked likely to win last year before Quevega showed her class in the
last 100 yards. Second again?
Hidden
Identity ** 100/1
Would be a major shock to feature in this. Beaten a long way this
season.
L'Unique **** 16/1
3rd last year, and place chances again.
Mischievous
Milly * 50/1
Shouldn't be featuring here. 95 lengths behind Bitofapuzzle.
Pass The
Time * 66/1
Best form over shorter.
Polly
Peachum **** 10/1
Pulled-up last time after a near fall at the last, however 2m4f on
good/soft looks perfect and a good run is expected.
Sureness * 100/1
2 mile specialist, not the best time to step up to 2 ½ miles.
Swing
Bowler ** 50/1
Another 2 miler, who should finish well down the field like last
year.
The
Govaness * 66/1
Step up to 2m3 1/2f last
time seem to work so more improvement could come here, but this is so
so much harder.
The Pirate's
Queen *** 20/1
Consistent at the trip and has legitimate place claims with 2 wins
over Bitofapuzzle.
Conclusions
Although Annie Power should win, I'm not a big one for odds on
shots. There's 5 or 6 in behind that have place chances. I like Polly
Peachum (10/1), but that's a bit short for my each way plays, so
THE PIRATE'S QUEEN (11/1 w/o Annie Power, skybet 3pl) or 20/1
general looks the value bet here.
Toby
Balding National Hunt Novices' Chase (Amateur Riders') – Class 2
– 4m
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
raced over fences at least 3 times.
9/10 Had finished in the top 2
in a Chase over at least 3 miles.
9/10 Had achieved a hurdles
rating of 119 in their career.
9/10 Had won over at least 3
miles in any sphere.
9/10 Had finished in the top 5
last time.
9/10 Had been off the track
for at least 30 days.
8/10 Were aged either 7 or 8
years old.
8/10 Had finished in the top 2
in one of their last 2 starts.
Additionally
The
last 12 winners had at least 3 starts over fences.
10
of the last 13 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.
Since
1989, only one 5 or 6 year old has won the race (Tricky Trickster
in 2009)
Horses
older than 8 are 1-4-40 in the last 10 years. But Midnight Prayer
was 9 last year.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 1-1-26
7yo 5-9-71
8yo 3-7-57
9yo 1-3-28
10yo 0-1-9
11yo 0-0-1
12yo 0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Alan King 2-1-8
Willie Mullins 1-1-7
Rebecca Curtis 1-0-1
Gordon Elliott 1-0-2
Henry Daly 1-0-5
Nigel Twiston-Davies 1-0-7
Paul Nicholls 0-1-4
Venetia Williams 0-1-4
David Pipe 0-1-5
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.2
stars
Ballyculla **** 50/1
Ran 18 days ago, otherwise
would have been perfect especially on the ground. Ah well
Broadway
Buffalo *** 20/1
Ground not ideal, however a
tough race 3 weeks ago (fell 16th) is not the best prep for this.
Cause
Of Causes *** 8/1
Doesn't strike me as a 4
miler, he's barely a 3 miler!.
Cogry **** 14/1
I like him, but although a
6-year old can win, I'd rather not be with them. Cheltenham form is
uninspiring as well.
Doing
Fine **** 12/1
Not a great hurdler, and
nothing too inspiring in his chasing career so far.
I
Need Gold *** 50/1
Look elsewhere.
Perfect
Candidate **** 50/1
Won over 2m71/2f,
close enough. But very little else to get excited about.
Perfect
Gentleman *** 14/1
Not sure why he's so short,
must be the Mullins factor. Slightly too old without a 3 mile top 2.
Return
Spring **** 25/1
Not in the right frame of mind
to bounce back here.
Royal
Palladium ** 33/1
Light and fluffy 3 mile wins,
but not good enough for this.
Sego
Success ***** 5/1
Perfect trends, good Listed
win last time, good jockey booking, chance.
The
Job Is Right *** 8/1
Ran 26 days ago possibly to
get his fall in the Thyestes out of his system. Place chance at best
Thunder
And Roses **** 20/1
A
20 length beating by Very Wood
isn't the best prep for this.
Very
Wood *** 7/2fav
Very Wood is very young. He's
really not even 6 yet. He's the best horse in the race though.
Vivaldi
Collonges *** 16/1
Hasn't beaten a horse yet in
his 2 runs. Leave alone.
Theatre
Queen **** 33/1
A refusal to race and a run 10
days ago, not carrying my money.
Top
Totti **** 33/1
Ticks a lot of boxes, but
another that doesn't set the pulse racing.
Conclusions
With half the field having run
within the last month, we may have to ignore that trend. However this
field isn't really exciting me and with fancied horses winning the
last few renewals we probably shouldn't be looking too far from the
top of the market. SEGO SUCCESS (5/1) is a tentative win
selection. BROADWAY BUFFALO (20/1) is a tentative e/w pick.
CHAPS
Restaurant, Barbados Novices' Handicap Chase – Listed – 2m 41/2f
10-year Trends
10/10 Aged under
9.
9/10 Had
finished in the top 2 last time out.
9/10 Had raced
over fences between 3 and 6 times.
9/10 Had won
over at least 2 ½ miles.
9/10 Official
Rating of 132-142.
9/10 Had last
run within the last 45 days.
9/10 Carried a
weight within 9lbs of the bottom weight.
8/10 Finished
top 4 in all completed chases.
7/10 Hadn't
won more than 1 chase.
Additionally
Only 1 horse that carried a penalty ran into a place.
7 year olds have won 6 from 67 runners, all other ages are 4 from
108.
Horses in first time head-gear have placed 5 time in the last 6
runnings
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-1-15
6yo 2-8-35
7yo 6-5-67
8yo 1-6-38
9yo 0-4-15
10yo 0-1-4
11yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky Henderson 1-4-15
Philip Hobbs 1-1-10
Paul Nicholls 1-0-13
Nigel Twiston-Davies 0-2-5
Mouse Morris 0-1-1
Gary Moore 0-1-2
Nick Gifford 0-1-2
Tom George 0-1-4
Jonjo O'Neill 0-1-8
Venetia Williams 0-1-9
Contenders
– 10
year trends winner
averaged 3.9
stars
Killala
Quay **** 16/1
Top weight without a win to his name, off for 60 days not ideal but
not a deal breaker. Ground is fine.
Leap
Dearg * 20/1
Exposed 2 miler, not for me thanks.
Cold
March *** 33/1
Doesn't win too much and not at this trip, another on the no list.
Dromnea ***** 25/1
Consistent at a low level, looks outclassed here at a trip that he
isn't comfortable at yet.
Little
Jon **** 12/1
Cheltenham form of 3OF4. At least they are good grade novice chases.
Hasn't yet won at the distance.
Gorsky
Island **** 25/1
Good form at 3 miles, coupled with the good ground and a break of 83
days, he may be taken off his feat by some of these.
Stellar
Notion **** 16/1
Should get an easy lead here and has form with a few of these. A bad
error cost him his chance last time so needs to concentrate here.
Golden
Hoof *** 33/1
Consistent in small fields, but struggles in bigger handicaps. Ground
is not a problem.
Knock
House **** 16/1
On terms to reverse from with Stellar Notion, but poor at
Cheltenham and off the track for 74 days.
Vivaccio *** 50/1
Well beaten in both attempts at 2m3 or so.
Horizontal
Speed ***** 16/1
Had to drop down in class to get some winning form under his belt.
Slammed 57l by Southfield Theatre in a novice chase at the trip. All
boxes ticked though and ground is no problems at all.
Irish
Cavailier ** 14/1
Fails a few trends but good place form and on terms to reverse
placings with Generous Ransom. Place chances at best.
Bold
Henry * 11/1
Unseated last time, 9 year olds don't have a good recorded and all
form is at 2 miles.
Generous
Ransom ***** 9/1
At the top of the market and rightly so. Lots of bits of form with
others, but ground is fine and has the course form in the book.
Cocktails At
Dawn *** 16/1
Not got a lot going for him with no winning chase form, and this
ultimately looks too far for him.
Rum And
Butter ** 33/1
Beaten a total of 132 lengths in last 3 starts and off for 109 days.
Monkey
Kingdoms ** 40/1
Well humped in last 2 starts and one to be avoided.
Gores
Island *** 33/1
A 9-year old. Tried the trip a few times, but looks more at home over
shorter.
Thomas
Crapper *** 15/2fav
Been running out of Novice company recently and been put in his place
each time. Handicap mark could be well hidden and has good course and
distance form over hurdles. Difficult one to assess.
Keltus ** 11/1
No wins, off the track for 101 days and form over shorter. Bargain.
Conclusions
A very competitive handicap to finish the first day. Thomas
Crapper could be anything but as he's favourite he's easy to
ignore for my betting purposes. My two against the field are GENEROUS
RANSOM (10/1, Paddypower) looks a good thing with a course win
under his belt last time. STELLAR NOTION (16/1, Stan James)
blundered last time when leading and should get things his way if he
jumps well today.
No comments:
Post a Comment