Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase 

 Grade 3 - 4m 1/2f 

One week after the easiest race to find the winner in (or least have a competitive runner) we come up against it tougher Scottish cousin. I blew out massively last year, when a barely 7 year old called Godsmejudge ran away with the contest, I certainly didn't see that one coming. The trends are pretty strong, except that 2 of the last 3 winners have been anti-trend horses.

10 Year Trends

10/10    Ran within the last 57 days, 9 within 42 days. 2 won with a break of 7 and 9 days.

  9/10    Were aged between 8 and 11 years old.

  9/10    Won a chase of 3 miles or more. (8 had won over more than 3 miles)

  9/10    Had run between 3 and 6 times in the season. (exception 7 times, but only 6 since October).

  9/10    Had finished top 4 in a 3m 4f+ chase. (Last 8 top 2)

  9/10    Had won a Class 3 chase or better.

  9/10    Had finished top 2 in either of its last 2 starts. (exception PPP6 in season)

  8/10    Carried less than 10-10 in weight, 2 were well out of the handicap (5 & 26lbs). The last 9 were under 11-04.

  8/10    Were Officially Rated between 124-143. No winners over 148.

  8/10    Had finished in the top6 in a handicap last time, exceptions were Novice chasers, 2 of the last 3..

  8/10    Had achieved an RPR of 137+ in a 3m1f+ chase.

  8/10    Had won a Chase worth £15,000 or more. (Exceptions are Novices)

  8/10    Had raced over fences between 10 and 24 times (2 exceptions were novices with 4 & 6 runs).

 Ages (W-P-R)

  6yo    0-3-10

  7yo    1-8-43

  8yo    3-4-59

  9yo    2-6-47

10yo    2-5-44

11yo    2-2-34

12yo    0-2-13

A very lop-side field for this renewal with Tidal Bay giving 19lbs to the rest of the field, we know he can do the weight and only 10 opponents run from within the handicap proper. He unseated at the Canal Turn last week. If you can trust that he can defy all the negatives above then feel free to back him. I can't have him but I hope he runs well.

Ratings

*

Merry King 20/1

Not likely to stay, although was 5th at a trip this season. Only won once in his career so far.

Pure Faith 66/1

Fails loads of the trends, off the track too long, no 3m win, etc.

Trustan Times 14/1

No chase win past 3 miles (a hurdle) and only 5 Chases (1 in last 2 years, been hurdling) and out of form so  surely won't be winning this.

Ballybough Gorta  80/1

Clearly not good enough. Off the track for a while fails tons of trends.

**

Tidal Bay (16/1)

Class horse, too much weight, too old etc. His unseat at Aintree fails him a few others. Not a real 2 star in my eyes, but can't be backed.

Edmund Kean (20/1)

Novice Chaser who doesn't look like troubling the scorers here.

Adrenalin Flight (40/1)

Not good enough, out of form, no 3m win, etc.

*** 

Sam Winner (11/1)

Paul Nicholls thinks he has a really good chance, he hasn't. What does Nicholls know about winning handicaps. Far too honest for that. Sam has no form at a trip, even if PN thought that the RSA trip was on the short side for him at Cheltenham. 

Mendip Express (11/1)

Off the track a little long, and 'just' the win at 3m3f is also a little short. He just fails a few trends and should probably be a 4 star horse, however 11/1 is a short price for this 3.5 star horse.

Battle Group (40/1)

Can't be trusted on last week's exploits, even if he was sure to get the trip.

Hadrian's Approach (18/1)

2nd season chaser, who looks short of top class. Was 5th in last season's Sandown Gold Cup, so place chances aren't off the agenda.

Green Flag (10/1fav)

Not sure I want to back a 7 year old (he's still 6) without stamina proved. Could be this season's Godmejudge, however he's too short in the market.

Roberto Goldback (20/1)

Too old and surely he'd have the form in the book if he was going to get the trip. Not for me.

McMurrough (40/1)

No 3 mile win, certainly no form at a trip, so one to avoid.

Al Co (40/1) 

Fitness not assure off that long and no form at a trip, so another to avoid.

Lie Forrit (25/1)

No form over a trip. Won 3m3 hurdle last time, but chase form looks over 3 miles max.

Baile Anrai (50/1)

Lacks a 3 mile win, etc. Too many runs this season. Should have won a valuable chase by now.

Sole Witness (50/1)

All form at a lower level, so likely to be outclassed here.

Sir Du Bearn (66/1)

Out the back last weekend in a 3m handicap, still hasn't won at 3 miles, and not exactly in the form of his life.

****

Rigadin De Beauchene (28/1)

Pulled-up in this last year and first run back was very good (won a G3 H'cap) 2 months ago. Loves the mud, so have to imagine this will be a little too fast for him. One to back if it rains tomorrow. 

Godsmejudge (16/1)

Not in form at the moment, but is the holder of this title, so is respected. Handles any ground.

Midnight Appeal (20/1)

No form at a marathon trip and lacks that £15k win. Goes on any ground but must want no more rain to get the trip. Place chance at best.

Yes Tom (14/1)

Similar profile to Midnight Appeal, but doesn't want it to dry out any more. Never run past 3m2f.

Alpha Victor (25/1)

Excellent 2nd in the Midlands National last time, but only 4 chases for this novice and only 1 Class 4 win so far. Place chance.

Fill The Power (33/1)

5th here last year and 7th last time in the Midlands National well back from Alpha Victor (now worse off), can't imagine he'll be beating that one here.

*****

Lackamon (33/1)

Beaten by Lie Forrit last time over hurdles. Advantage is that he won the Durham National this time last year so stamina is assured and looks laid out for this with last 3 runs over too short a trip and 2 hurdles runs. Goes on any ground.

Nuts N Bolts (33/1)

Minor fails with 9 chases (for non-novice) and not top 3 last 2 runs. Really struggled before being pulled-up here last year, and he would like it a bit softer if possible, though G/S is ok. Off the track for nearly 2 months is at my limit of time off too.

Roalco De Farges (12/1)

Strong on trends and my likely winner. 12/1 is the shortest price I'll take. He goes on any ground and

Hobbs/ Johnson partnership a plus. Hobbs also 4 places from 9 runners in this.

 

Mister Marker (25/1)

3rd here last year, and all but one trend (fails the £15k race), as he's not a Novice, that's a bigger worry than it could be. Ground is ok.

Summery Justice (66/1)

Big price. Distant 4th in the Midland National and 10lb out of the handicap here. Same trends profile as  
Mister Marker and ground is fine. Beat Burton Port 2 runs ago and remember he was a 5 star horse for the Grand National (fell, 2nd). I fancy he'll outrun his price but will he make the frame.

Conclusions:
All can be backed for 5 places at the bookies below.

ROALCO DE FARGES (12/1 boyle, spbet, 11/1 elsewhere)

ALPHA VICTOR (28/1, betvictor, 25/1 at a good bookie)

LACKAMON (33/1, skybet, paddypower, betbright)

SUMMERY JUSTICE (66/1, boyle, Stan James, Betbright)

I can't get on at 12/1 with Roalco De Farges, so may have to give that one a miss. Hopefully the other 3 will give you a good run for your money.