Many Clouds burst plenty of trends last year, mainly the weight he carried (11st 9lbs), and therefore his Official Rating (160). Red Rum (12st) in 1974 is the only horse to carry more than 11-09, although the top weight is now 11-10. However, only one of the 14 behind Many Clouds carried more than 11 stone. He was also the first 8 year old to win since Bindaree in 2002. Only 2 8yo's have won since Party Politics in 1992. Many Clouds could easily be the first horse since Red Rum to win back to back Nationals.
We will again try to find the winner and maybe a forecast/tricast for the race using the methods that seem to apply year on year.
Age - Horses aged 8-12.
No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (aged 13) who won in 1923. Horses younger than 7 are now prevented from competing, they couldn't win anyway and need protecting from over-enthusiastic trainers and owners.
Now 9 of the last 10 winners were all aged between 9 and 11 years old. Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995, however horses outside the 8-11 age range have just 1 place from 65 runners in the last 10 years (Oscar Time (4th) in 2013).
10 Year Trends (won-placed-runners)
aged 6/7 0-0-25
aged 8 1-6-63
aged 9 2-12-104
aged 10 4-7-107
aged 11 3-4-61
aged 12 0-1-28
aged 13 0-0-9
aged 14 0-0-3
Distance Win - Winning form over at least 3 miles, preferably 3m1f+
Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 4m 21/2f.
To go a bit further, all of the previous 12 winners had won a chase over 3m1f, and 9 of the last 12 had a top 3 finish over 3m 21/2f or further. The fences may be 'easier' and the distance 'shorter' (one through moving the start 200yds and the other when all racecoures were remeasured) but stamina is still extremely important at a marathon trip.
Weight Carried
Many Clouds bashed this one up last year, however I still want to be on horses carrying less weight, as most in behind him were carrying 11 stone or less. But we now can't rule out any horse, with 3 of the last 6 winners carrying a weight that for the previous 25 renewals of the race was impossible to win with.
In 2013 only 1 horse within 50 lengths carried more than 11st.
In 2014 only 1 horse within 115 lengths carried more than 11st.
In 2015 only 1 horse within 90 lengths carried more than 11st.
Race Fitness - Must have run within the previous 56 days
Was 49 days, but Neptune Collonges (2012) was 7 days longer and lee-way can be given. I can only find data going back to 1989 and every winner has run within 56 days.
Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996.
Horses need to be race fit to win this and horses start losing their edge after a long break, either enforced or otherwise. We want a horse that is ready to race and ready to win.
Form - Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year. Of course Auroras Encore wasn't placed in his previous 7 races to throw that out of the window but he'd run well in some decent Graded races. His last form was the previous April with a quality 2nd in the Scottish National.
Experience - Have run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording others the same.
Class - Have won a chase worth at least £29,000
You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Pineau De Reu won a £13,000 race, so leeway can be given if they tick most of the other boxes, but every other winner since Party Politics in 1992 had won a £17,000 Chase.
Season Runs - Have raced between 3 and 6 times since August
Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National. Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since has had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet. We are looking for horses that have been kept ticking over throughout the season without going over the top.
Conclusion: Winning Profile
Aged 8-12
Won over more than 3 miles
Top 3 finish in a 3¼ mile Chase
Last run between 20-56 days ago
9+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £13k to the winner
Between 3-6 runs since August
If you want to refine it further
Perfect Profile
Aged 8 to 11
Won a 3m1f Chase
Top 3 in a 3m4f+ Chase
Carrying less than 11-02
Last run between 20-56 days ago
10+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £29k to the winner
Between 4-6 runs since August
Good Luck
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