Many Clouds 8/1fav ****
Last years victor and a worthy favourite this year, lots of boxes ticked, must go close, but has a star lopped off because low-weights are still favoured.
Silviniaco Conti 12/1 ***
Classy multiple Grade 1 winner at 3 miles, but yet to prove his stamina at marathon trips and again has a big weight to carry.
First Lieutenant 40/1 ***
lots of miles on the clock now and not your typical staying type, 16th last year a good 90 lengths behind the winner, hard to see him getting any closer this year.
Wonderful Charm 50/1 **
Only 1 run this season for this 8 year old, since pulling up in his only try at an extended trip in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, a major surprise if he won this.
Ballynagour 66/1 ***
Not a guaranteed stayer at 3 miles and has been continually beaten over that trip this season, avoid.
O’Faolains Boy 33/1 ***
Had injury problems since his RSA Chase victory 2 years ago at Cheltenham, 7th in the Gold Cup and this looks a bit too early in his career to be winning this.
Gilgamboa 66/1 ***
Yet to win at 3 miles and another to ignore.
On His Own 50/1 ***
This 12 year old could have won the Cheltenham Gold Cup 2 years ago, powers on the wain since and has fallen in both attempts in this race in 2012, 2013.
The Druids Nephew 16/1 *****
Has an excellent chance in my opinion. Fell on landing last year 5 fences out when going the best. A little too highly rated than most historical winners, but only carries 11 stone with some talented horses running above him.
Troilo D’Alene 33/1 ****
Former Hennessy Gold Cup Winner (2013) and still only a 9 year old, however pulled-up 2 years ago and was off the track for a year until January and so only has 2 runs this season.
Rocky Creek 66/1 ****
Out of sorts this season and chance probably went 2 years ago when 5th (lead 3 fences out before fading). 17th last year. 4 stars is generous.
Sir Des Champs 40/1 ****
Classy Grade 1 winner in his pomp (2nd in 2013 Gold Cup), just not firing now at that level. Never raced past the Gold Cup distance either. Off the track for 63 days not ideal.
Holywell 16/1 *****
Excellent 2nd in the 3 mile handicap at Cheltenham, which is a good preperation race for this. Usually a good jumper and has a chance although not tried a marathon trip before.
Shutthefrontdoor 20/1 ****
5th last year was excellent considering he had just 7 Chase runs under his belt. Trouble is he's only raced twice this season and his only Chase was tailed off before pulling up. Place chance at best.
Soll 50/1 ****
7th and 9th in this so knows how to get round, excuses last year, but isn't getting any younger and any chance may have gone.
Buywise 66/1 ***
This is the Buywise story, he gets held-up because he can't jump, then as he gets into a jumping rhythm he moves through the field to finish an unlucky 2nd, 3rd or 4th. He's been off for 70 days and hasn't won past 2m7f yet. Paul Moloney (placed in the last 7 Grand Nationals) is on board, so he may have a place chance.
Boston Bob 25/1 ****
Out of sorts for 2 years before winning the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February. Talented, but could have achieved much more. Stamina to prove and only 2 runs since a July run in the Galway Plate (13th, always behind).
Aachen 100/1 ***
He's a 12yo who's basically a 3 miler, and his biggest win was in December for (£25k) although that was over 3m2f. Beaten 120 lengths in his last 2 starts. He's also British-bred (last win 2001, Red Marauder).
Morning Assembly 25/1 ***
Back from almost 2 years off in January, on the right track in 4th behind Holywell, but untested past 3 miles 1 and has just the 8 Chases so far and biggest win is £20k.
Double Ross 80/1 ***
If he wins, he will be the new Gay Trip. No win past 2m5f. usually front runs and runs out of puff in 3 mile races, may have to be held-up here.
Goonyella 20/1 *****
Perfect 5 stars. Midlands Grand National winner last season, then 2nd in the Scottish National a month later. Had a couple of hurdles spins, so this has been his aim all season. However only 9th in only spin over these fences in December.
Ucello Conti 25/1 ***
French horse, now trained by National winning trainer Gordon Elliott, Just 3 runs for him and decent runs the last 2 times stepped up to 3 miles, however 79 days off, and obviously untested at a trip. Can't rule out, as his trainer had the golden touch in handicaps at Cheltenham, but would be an unusual winner.
Unioniste 33/1 *****
Fell at the 5th last year, the only time he's not completed in a 28 race career. Won a 3m2f 4 runner affair in February, so not much form at a trip, ticks lots of boxes, hmmm just doesn't look the National type to me.
Le Reve 50/1 ****
No win past 3 miles yet, but a decent performance in the Bet365 Gold Cup, could plod into a place, but unlikely to win.
Gallant Oscar 20/1 ****
No staying Chase form, no form recently either, shouldn't be good enough and a lucky 4 stars horse.
Onenightinvienna 50/1 **
Just 4 chase starts and yet to win over 3 miles. Difficult to see the 7 year-old novice featuring.
The Last Samurai 10/1 ****
Backed into 2nd fav after a 10 length beating of the The Druids Nephew, in the Grimthorpe Chase. No experience of a trip, but not failed to disappoint over 3m2f so far, so more to come. Only 8 chase starts so far his only negative.
Kruzlinin 25/1 **
10th 2 years ago, when a 7yo. Won at 3 miles, but not further and no place form at a trip. Olny won a 12k race so far and has just the 2 runs this season after a year out.
Rule The World 50/1 ***
2nd in last year's Irish National, but no runs at that distance before or since. 0/13 in his career must mean a place is the best he can hope for.
Just A Par 50/1 *****
Perfect trends. Won the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown last April staying on strongly, so the distance won't be a problem, but struggled this season, beaten over 80 lengths in his 3 races and a run just 18 days ago to get a run into him and possibly some confidence back after some indifferent jumping.
Katenko 66/1 ***
Badly out of form lately, and just 1 win at 3 miles so far, best to leave alone, lucky to be 3 stars.
Vics Canvas 66/1 ****
He's 13 now, so he can't win, although he was an excellent 2nd to Just a Par at Sandown, but nothing shown this year as age may have caught up with him.
Black Thunder 66/1 **
Not shown anything so far this season, and chase wins over a bare 3 miles are getting me excited, his biggest chase win just £17k.
Ballycasey 80/1 ****
Brought down early last year, but he's basically a 21/2m horse, and really shouldn't be 4 stars. An unlikely finisher.
Hadrian’s Approach 66/1 ****
Just one run in a year, stamina no problems, but all his 3 runs since winning the Bet365 Gold Cup 2 years ago have been disappointing.
Vieux Lion Rouge 66/1 **
Just a 7yo novice with 6 starts. Not this year.
Pendra 66/1 **
Not really the national type, been around for ages but just 9 starts over fences, and off for 4 months.
Saint Are 16/1 *****
Perfect trendswise, 2nd last year, and should have an excellent chance if the ground dries out. Bit worried that he was risked in a Cross-Country chase at Cheltenham, then disappointed in the Becher Chase back here. Bounced back at Doncaster last time.
Home Farm 100/1 **
No 3 mile form and just 2 starts this season. Biggest win is £13k and nothing to write home about form-wise in his lst 3 starts.
The Romford Pele 50/1 *****
Not sure he'll be suited by this stiffer test, but has won over 3m2f and may run on into a place if he can avoid the trouble out the back.
Reserves
Bishops Road 33/1 *****
Shame he hasn't go in, but is first reserve until tomorrow morning. Ran throughout the summer, so only 2 runs since August, but all winning form is on soft or heavy. Romped home in the National Trial at Haydock (heavy ground) in first run at a trip. If hedoes get in, I don't think the price will last as punters will latch onto trainer Kerry Lee, who has already won some big races this season (incl Welsh National) in her first season training after taking over from her dad, Richard.
Knock House 100/1 ***
Decent 4th in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham, but little staying form and as a 7 year old, with an £11k win to his name, may be another year.
Perfect Candidate 66/1 ****
Has been tackling staying chases this season with mixed success, hasn't really achived too much and has just a £12k chase win to his name/
Maggio 150/1 ***
Not shown to be good enough so far and no form past 3 miles.
Another grand national where the weather is changeable, currently its soft with a bit of good to soft, but there is rain forecast on friday night, but dry most of the rest of the time. I expect it will be similar to now.
Shortlist
It's very hard to crab anyone choosing Many Clouds (8/1fav), as he's a very good chance of following up with back to back wins, however 8/1 is too short for me, although he may appear in some combination bets. The Druids Nephew (16/1), was going well last year before falling, I think he can run well again. Sir Des Champs (40/1) has stamina doubts, and prefers softer ground, so he's not on my radar. Holywell (16/1) will like better ground, so that has to put him in doubt with the current forecasts. Soll (50/1) will like soft, but isn't good enough anymore. Goonyella (20/1) has run well on soft and good at marathon trips even if his trainer says he wants the rain. Unioniste (33/1) struggles in big fields, but does like any ground. The Last Samurai (10/1) looks on the upgrade, but is a little inexperienced for the usual winner, especially at this price, he's another for the the combi-tricast. Just A Par (50/1) blows hot a cold, but needs better ground anyway. Saint Are (16/1) goes ok on soft ground, but I think good/soft is better for him, he loves Aintree. The Romford Pele (50/1) ticks a lot of boxes, but does prefer better ground. He may get a place.
My each-way bets
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW (16/1, general)
GOONYELLA (20/1, general)
SAINT ARE (16/1, general)
Make sure you get 5 places online. If you are going to the betting shop, ask for the price, Paddy Power should do 5 places on the high street, possibly betfred, but they might not have the best price.
If the ground goes heavy, or good/soft or better, then I may have to revise the selections, but all 3 should be comfortable on any ground.
good luck
No comments:
Post a Comment