Marsh Novices' Chase
Going to be difficult to to stop Envoi Allen here. I'd take Fusil Raffles over Chantry House anyday, so 18/1 looks too big. Shan Blue to also fill the frame.
Updated odds give Shan Blue a nice each way price.
BET
Shan Blue e/w @ 12/1 - Bet365
Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle
Southfield Harvest & Getaround now non-runners
Dandy Mag wil be quite popular for Mullins/Townend, however French-Breds have a poor record in this.
Champagne Harvest looks a little inexperienced for this, but has the right profile.
Anything Will Do is a big price. He's finished 5th in big fields over this trip, but little to completely dismiss him.
Mrs Milner has run well here before, but has to overcome a fall last time. Plenty of mentions on the preview videos.
Redford Road, former Grade 1 winner over C & D last season. Went chasing, discovered he wasn't great at it and qualified for this on his first run back. Some graded winners just don't perform in big bustling handicaps, so that would have to be taken on trust.
Come On Teddy is another C & D winner, with only a 5 length defeat to Imperial Alcazar last time. I will say that Tom George is 1 place from 12 runners in the last fortnight. Jockey, Jonathan Burke is winless in his last 31 rides in the last 14 days as well.
BET
IMPERIAL ALCAZAR @ 6/1 - Bet365
REDFORD ROAD e/w @ 40/1 - Bet365
Ryanair Chase
Dashel Drasher & Real Steel additional non-runners.
Absolutely wide open. Imperial Aura and Mr Fisher haven't won a Grade 1 Chase yet. The Irish have Allaho and Min, and we can't discount Samcro or Melon either. There's no real each-way option and I may have a put on one closer to the race, especially if the ground dries.
Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle
Paisley Park looks back to his best after his last run. This has a stronger feel about it this year. Sire De Berlais won the Pertemps off top weight last year and that gives him a good chance here. Last year's winner Lisnagar Oscar also has a decent chance again, but is now much shorter. And you throw in Grade 1 winner, Flooring Porter, ultraconsistent The Story Teller, and Vinndication, back over hurdles, and you have a craicking race.
If the ground dried out further, If The Cap Fits, is a Grade 1, 3 mile winner, good ground winner, although he's been chasing this season, so it would be tough to win this from that campaign.
At the current prices, Flooring Porter looks the value.
BET
FLOORING PORTER @ 14/1, 5 places with Paddy Power
Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase (Mildmay Of Flete)
Smarty Wild & Laskalin are non runners.
It generally pays to stick to Novices or Second Season Chasers in these events. Just over half the field will be those this time.
The Shunter is short enough in the market now, going for the bonus. He was entered into half a dozen handicaps, and this looks the right one for him.
Wave Of The Sea is only 5, only 2 have run in this in the last decade, but he''' be a better class than those 2 as he was a Grade 1 Juvenile winner just last season. Not sure the ground will suit him today.
Farclas also won the Triumph here a in 2018. He will love better ground and has to go close.
Of the outsiders. I can't give you much really. Maypole Class has been climbing the weights, but in small fields, and seems to struggle in bigger. Sully d'Oc AA has a chance, has been off for 111 days though and although winning off a break earlier in the season, its always tougher here. Fils D'Oudaries has been running at the top level, but has been running of soft and heavy ground. Champagne Court is out of form this season. The Unit is pretty consistent and has been kept to mainly better ground
Of the older horses. Mr Whitaker, Paddy's Poem and Dead Right all have form on good ground.
There isn't a bet on the youngsters at a price, with The Shunter & Farclas up there and nothing too exciting on the ground. Mr Whitaker loves the track and after not getting 3 miles, he's back to his proper trip.
BET
MR WHITAKER @ 16/1, 5 places
Parnell Properties Mares' Novices' Hurdle
Hook Up was 4th to Appreciate It last time and the 3rd was booked for second on tuesday before falling at the last. He doesn't tick lots of boxes, but it is an embryonic race still. Willie Mullins has won them all, but all bar one is a single figure price this time. Tellmesomethinggirl is Irish trained, by Henry De Bromhead, and ticks more boxes than Hook Up. She ws 3 1/2 lengths behind Heaven Help Us (bolted up yesterday). Royal Kahala seems at home on softer ground and that has to be a worry, as does Skyace. The Glancing Queen ran well here in the bumper and runs well without winning, ground will be ok. Pont Aval is Mullins, but will need to find more here.
Can't see myself having a bet at the moment, but the strong form of Hook Up and Tellmesomethinggirl sways me towards those.
Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
A few renew their rivalry here. Kifilium Cross (2nd), Bob Mahler (3rd), Plan Of Attack (4th) and Diese Aba (5th) the ones at the business end 12 months ago. They are all lower in the handicap, apart from Diese Aba (same). Kilfilium Cross (age) and Bob Mahler (chase runs) have just tipped over the edge for a strong punt. Plan Of Attack is still on trend, but isn't hidden in the market. Hold The Note (still a novice), perfect here but is also a single digit price.
Mount Ida, Musical Slave and Morning Vicar haven't run over 3 miles yet and have to be opposed in this stamina test.
French-Bred's don't have a good record and this rules out these two. Cobolobo and Didero Vallis.
Sizing at Midnight hasn't completed the last twice.
Purely on their race last year, and their prices
BET
KILFILUM CROSS @ 18/1, Skybet 6 places
BOB MAHLER @ 22/1, WH or 5 places (20/1 Skybet, 6 places)
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