Tuesday 16 March 2021

 Skybet Supreme Novices' Hurdle


This looks like a battle between the Leopardstown Festival form and the UK form with Metier (Tolworth) and Soaring Glory (Betfair).

Appreciate It won The Leopardstown race easily, beating Ballyadam and Blue Lord, with Irracible in 5th. He looks the one to beat, being a 7yo is a negative, but offers the best form. Ballyadam was closing before whacking the last, but he's been beaten twice now.

Metier will be happy if it starts soft, but ex flat horses don't have a great record in this any more.

Betfair winner sdon't have a great win record, but often run into a place, so Soaring Glory can't be ruled out.

I'm going to give Grumpy Charley a shout for a place. He's run well at Chepstow and will improve here, however this looks between the top 3 in the market. It a no bet from me.


Likely winner: Appreciate It

Possible E/W:  Grumpy Charley

NO BET


Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase

Allmankind to go off with Numitor like the clappers, Shishkin sits in and picks them up and wins. Next.

Probably not as easy as that and the otrhers are decent horses in their own right. Franco De Port is a Grade 1 winner after all. Apparently Eldorado Allen was supposed to run elsewher, but they left him in the wrong race.


Likely winner: Shishkin

NO BET


Ultima Handicap Chase


Plenty to like about Aye Right, who runs well, but isn't getting a break from the handicapper. He's a little high in the weights but should give a good account of himself. Form is rock solid with places in the CHarlie Hall, Hennessy/Ladbroke and Skybet Chase.

Alnadam gets 5 stars, however his 3 mile win was in a Point To Point and his best form has been over shorter. (similar to The Druid's Nephew in 2015). Into 8/1 this morning, so not an e/w bet.

Happygolucky beat a closing in The Mighty Don (runs in last race). The Racing Post are all over that race, so if he goes in here, The Mighty Don may be of interest, stepped up in trip.

One For The Team has been running well without troubling the judges. Hes a bit short for that form and can't be advised.

Of the outsiders, The Wolf ticks a lot of boxes, but needs a lot more to get involved.

Another race without anything to recommend, however I will suggest 

Likely Winner: AYE RIGHT 

Bet: AYE RIGHT (11/2) - general


Unibet Champion Hurdle

Should be a cracker.


Basically Honeysuckle is perfect and has a big chance after here Irish Champion Hurldle win last time. She's not my kind of price to bet. 

Sharjah ran really well last year and could do so again, especially if the ground dries a little. He's 11/1 at the moment, and my e/w minimum is always 12/1.


Likeliest winner:  Honeysuckle
Possible Each-Way:    Sharjah


Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle


The market has it correct. No bet here. Of the rest Indfatigable won he Martin Pipe last year, steaming up the hill, but has not hit those heights this season.

Likely Winner: Concertista

Possible e/w: Indefatigable


NO BET


Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle



The Fred Winter/Boodles is always a tricky handicap, with the trainer who can hide their horses ability from the handicapper the best, the likeliest winner.

Nassalam had Triumph Hurdle aims until he wasn't good enough, he's top weight, but that is almost irrelvant here. I would'nt rule him out, but there's likely to be a lurker further down.

Willie Mullins has Saint Sam at the top of the market, Willie hasn't had a good record in the race, probably because he doesn't hide his horses. He's one to take on.


Houx Gris ticks lots of boxes, but hasn't run for 2 months. That's usually a negative in this and he's short enough.

Busselton shouldn't be left out, I could see him winning, and there's nothing wrong with a 9/1 winner.


It's a bit of a lottery, but the shortlist is:

Hell Red - Paul Nicholls has a good record in this and this horse has had wind surgey after being pulled-up. His first run back was ok if you are trying to get into this.

Her Indoors - Not that great on the flat, however the form of all 3 of his races look rock solid and I think she can run well. Fillies have a good record in the race, so don't be put off.

Balko Saint - Perfect on trends. Form is decent. 


Each-Way

Hell Red (40/1) - general

Her Indoors (33/1) - Betvictor, 28/1, Bet365

Balko Saint (33/1) - Bet365



Sam Vestey National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Chase


I'll keep this short and sweet:

Next Destiniation only has 2 starts, that's a big negative. He was a really good hurdler, but needs experience here.

Galvin is really good, but he's been off for 4 months and he's got soft ground anyway.

Escaria Ten is perfect, he's 4/1 and I won't put you off. However the form of his last 2 races is unknown, with only 2 horses racing since his December win.

Remastered really good Grade 2 win last time. 

Likeliest winner:  Remastered (11/2) Paddypower, Betfred, Boyles

Likeliest e/w:  Snow Leopardess (16/1) - Unibet, 14/1 general


BOTH ARE BETS


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