Tuesday’s Cheltenham Preview
Well, it’s finally here and I haven’t kept my promise of regular tips and post to this blog. But I will be working particularly hard to get everything in over the next 4 days. I will try and pick the winner using both the winner’s trends and my ratings and also pick out some value picks as per usual. First of all we need to remember that horses placed at previous festivals are more likely to be placed again as Cheltenham is one of the most demanding tracks in jumps racing. Horses for courses and all that.
There are plenty of free tipping competitions around to test your prowess or luck:-
http://www.attheraces.com/cheltenham/
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/community/news.php?id=725
http://www.selectastable.co.uk/CleverTV/en/tmg/rp-new/15740/clienthome.do
(£5 per stable, 5 for £20)
The roar of the first race is coming, let’s try and break even for the week....
PS Check out the latest odds on oddschecker.com or easyodds.com. Don’t forget that bet365.com, paddypower.com, stanjames.com and williamhill.com all offer guaranteed odds on their websites. (They pay out on the SP if its bigger, so always take the price)
And it’s an earlier start this year, so please don’t tune to Channel 4 at 2pm for the first race.
Happy valuehunting,
VH
1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (2m 110y)
Cousin Vinny 3/1f, Torpichen 6/1, Kempes 10/1, Go Native 11/1, Micheal Flips 14/1, Red Moloney 14/1, Ainama 14/1, 16/1 bar
The trends for his race suggest that you must have won 50% of your hurdles races and have a distance win to your name. This rules out most of the outsiders (good). Last year Captain Cee Bee beat Binocular up the hill to break 2 big trends as he was a 7 year old coming off a break of more than 75 days. Still 5/6 year olds have won 30 of the last 34 renewals and the Irish have an excellent record in the last 10 years (68 runners, 7 wins, 6 places)
Trends: Cousin Vinny @ 3/1f (Stan James, vcbet) or Kempes @ 12/1 (Coral)
Value: I don’t see any in Cousin Vinny, I reckon something could beat him up but he is the classiest horse in the race. Torpichen would be a very young winner at 4. With the rain forecast tomorrow, ones to be on the right side of is Golan Way @ 33/1 (Stan James, Ladbrokes, vcbet) or Aachen @ 16/1 (general). It could be a race to watch rather than punt on.
2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (2m)
Tatenen 4/1f, Calgary Bay 6/1, I’msingingtheblues 9/1, Forpadydeplasterer 9/1, Planet Of Sound 11/1, Kalahari King 14/1, 16/1 bar
The trends insist on an unexposed Novice Chaser (less than 6 Chase starts) aged 5-7, who has finished in the top 2 in all their starts and won over 2m/2m1f. The only horses that fit the profile are Tatenen @ 4/1f and I’msingingtheblues @ 9/1. However Planet Of Sound and Forpadydeplaster have both won over further, which is surely an advantage up the hill and Cheltenham on possibly soft ground. I wouldn’t rule out Kalahari King either, but he is 8.
Trends: Tatenen @ 4/1f (general) or I’msingingtheblues @ 9/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, vcbet)
Value: If the ground is soft, then this will play into the hands of Tatenen and Forpadydeplasterer. Both would be hard to beat. You can back Forpadydeplasterer @ 15/2 with bet365 in the ‘insure a bet’ 3 place market. (If he’s 2nd/3rd you get your stake back). Golden Silver @ 16/1 (general) and Follow The Plan @20/1 (Betfred, Stan James) could be viable each ways on the forecast soft ground.
2.40 William Hill Handicap Trophy Chase (3m 110y)
Wichita Lineman 6/1f, Possol 8/1, Star De Mohaison 10/1, Millenium Royal, 12/1, Patsy Hall 12/1, Cailin Alainn 14/1, 18/1 bar
There’s only been one winning favourite since 1977 (Antonin in 1994), however the horse doesn’t know what price he is, so it’s best sticking to stronger trends. For instance the best age is 7-10, ruling out Possol (6) and carrying less than 11st. Ideally the winner will have won over at least 3 miles and also won a good class Handicap Chase. Hmmm ... That didn’t work too well. We still have 9 in. Well we should be looking for horses in some sort of recent form and with some course form too.
Reveillez won the Jewson Novices’ Chase in 2006. Has raced once in almost 2 years, pulling up in January (heavy) in the race that The Sawyer won. – Avoid on soft going
Simon has had 5 runs around here and has placed just once and hasn’t looked the force of old (F25U4U47) since his last win over 2 years ago – Not good
Nenuphar Collonges - 2 wins from 3 runs here, including in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle last year. Won at Bangor in November. Good good!!
Hot Weld – Winner of the Amateur Rider’s Chase in 2006 and also the Scottish National in 2007. One run in nearly 2 years (pulled up in Feb). Has an outside chance of a place if he’s fit.
Lacdoudal has had 12 runs around here, with 1 win and 2 places. No win for 3 years, but should be plodding on at the end for place chances.
Billyvoddan hasn’t won since 2006 and is completely out of form. Has been placed 3 times in 8 runs at Cheltenham. - Ignore
Oedipe – Unexposed horse, who finished 13th to Mister McGoldrick in last year’s Racing Post Plate. Won’t want the rain to come.
The Sawyer won at Cheltenham in January over 2m 5f in heavy ground – A positive
Lothian Falcon – Pretty consistent, probably needed the run in January. Has a 100% record around here.
Trends: Nenuphar Collonges @ 18/1 (bet365, vcbet), The Sawyer @ 40/1 (bet365, vcbet, Ladbrokes or Lothian Falcon @ 20/1 (sportingodds, totesport)
Value: The two I’m interested in are actually trend horses . Nenuphar Collonges @ 18/1 and The Sawyer @ 40/1
3.20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (2m 110y)
Binocular 15/8f, Celestial Halo 9/1, Osana 11/1, Crack Away Jack 14/1, Katchit 14/1, Whiteoak 16/1, 20/1 bar
Trends: The ideal profile for this race is a horse with at least 9 outings over hurdles that has won LTO, has finished in the top 2 at a previous Festival, and won a Grade 1 Hurdle or Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle. Also horses over 8 have only won 3 times in over 50 years. The 3 horses that are left are Katchit @ 14/1 (general), Osana @ 11/1 (Betfred) and Whiteoak @ 16/1 (general). The last 10 winners had also run withing 52 day,s which is a negative on Katchit (80).
Value: None in Binocular, and he may well win, but that nagging doubt about the Cheltenham hill and this large field offers little value and there’s plenty of e/w thievery on offer. Namely in Celestial Halo, Osana and Katchit. And if the girls want to support the girls, I can’t put you off Whiteoak either.
4.00 Glenfarclas Handicap (Cross Country Chase) (3m 7f)
L’Ami 9/4f, Garde Chametre 4/1, Dix Villez 7/1, Wonderkid 10/1, Drombeag 14/1, A New Story 16/1, 20/1 bar
Trends: Not much as this has only been going for 4 years. If you want to follow the limited trends, then you can only really pick from L’Ami @ 9/4f (Paddy Power, Stan James, Ladbrokes, William Hill) or Garde Champetre @ 4/1 (Betfred). The two other selections with a sniff are Dix Villez @ 8/1 (PaddyPower) and Drombeag @ 12/1 (general).
Value: The value not surprisingly lies with Drombeag and he is nicely weighted with 10-7. Puntal @ 28/1 (Skybet) may sneak a place.
4.40 David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle (2m 4f)
Quevega 5/2f, United 4/1, Chomba Womba 15/2, Give It Time 10/1, Oscar Rebel 12/1, Caroles Legacy 16/1, 22/1 bar
Trends: The first running of this was last year, with Whiteoak (Champion Hurdle) outstaying Refinement up the hill.
Value: It will probably pay to side with United @ 4/1 (general), with her experience of Cheltenham and the softening conditions. Quevega @ 5/2f (general) is a good horse, but I don’t know what she’s actually beaten so far. Experienced campaigner Chomba Womba @ 15/2 (Paddy Power) should be there abouts. Gaspara @ 22/1 (Bet365, Stan James) could bring about a place for her efforts. 2 others for consideration at longer odds are Dansimar @ 22/1 (Bet365, SJ) and Sweetheart @ 28/1 (Bet365, vcbet).
Hopefully you’ll have broken even on the day. See you tomorrow
No comments:
Post a Comment