Cheltenham Festival - Day 4

Friday’s Cheltenham Preview
1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle (2m 1f)
Walkon 9/2f, Zaynar 5/1, Master Of Arts 6/1, Starluck 13/2, Ebadiyan 9/1, Lethal Weapon 14/1, Jumbo Rio 14/1, 18/1 bar
Trends: We’re looking towards a market leader, who’s finished top 2 LTO, won at least twice and preferably run within the last 7 weeks.
This leaves Jumbo Rio @ 14/1 (Bluesq), Master Of Arts @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes), Ebadiyan @ 9/1 (bluesq) and Walkon @ 9/2f (general)
Value: Trenchant @ 20/1 (general) and Reve De Sivola @ 2/1 (vcbet, paddypower, bet365) both pass the trends (apart from the market leaders). I think one of them will get into the frame.

2.05 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle (2m 1f)
Dave’s Dream 5/1f, Sunnnyhillboy 15/2, Aachen 8/1, Cockney Trucker 9/1, Raise Your Heart, 12/1, Kandari 18/1, 20/1 bar
Trends: Were look for a fancied horse aged 5 or 6 (won 37 of 46 renewals). 13 of the last 20 winners had won LTO, (another 4 were second) and they must have had at least 5 runs over hurdles. This still leaves 4 in. Raise Your Heart @ 12/1 (general), Dave’s Dream @ 5/1f (bluesq, Paddypower, Coral, Betfred), Sky Hall @ 20/1 (skybet) and Sunnyhillboy 15/2 (William Hill).
Value: I think the market has it pretty spot on and I’d rather leave this alone.
2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Spa Novices’ Hurdle Race) (3m)
Cape Tribulation 7/2jf, Pride Of Dulcote 7/2jf, Alpha Ridge 8/1, Weapon’s Amnesty 11/1, On Raglan Road 14/1, Chariot Charger 16/1, 18/1 bar
Trends: The race has only been going 4 years, so trends are limited. The previous 4 had all won at 2m5f or more and won a graded hurdle, so that looks a good stat. They also were 1st/2nd LTO and are rate on RPR of 139+.
Alpha Ridge @ 8/1 (general), Cape Tribulation @ 7/2jf (general), Pride OF Dulcote @ 7/2jf (Bluesq, PaddyPower, Coral), Thetwincamdrift @ 16/1 (general), Weapon’s Amnesty 11/1 (William Hill)
Value: Very little, the winner should come from the top 4 in the market.

3.20 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m 2f 110y)
Kauto Star2/1f, Neptune Collonges 6/1, Denman 13/2, Exotic Dancer 8/1, Madison Du Berlais 10/1, Barbers Shop 11/1, 16/1 bar
Trends: We can rule out the older horses, any not in the Top 4 LTO, those with only 1 run this season. And you need 6-13 chase starts, A grade 1 win and won a graded chase this year and a 1st or 2nd at a previous festival. Simples! Kauto Star or Exotic Dancer
Value: Madison Du Beralis @ 10/1 (general) is improving all the time, but I can’t help but think that last year’s 4th could run into a place. Halcon Generlardais is 66/1 (general). There must be a ‘without’ market where we can get some e/w. A big old price.
4.00 Christie’s Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup (3m 2f 110y)
Juveigneur 5/1f, Cappa Bleu 11/2, Amicelli 8/1, Royal Auclair 10/1, Kingscliff 12/1, Limerick Boy 14/1, 18/1 bar
Trends: The trends rule out a few but there are still 8 horses left in. Juveigneur isn’t one of them ;-)
Value: Difficult to find an edge. So I won’t.
4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (2m 4f 110y)
Big Eared Fran 5/1, Mamlook, 7/1, Buena Vista 12/1, Penn Da Benn 12/1, Hangover 14/1, Little Shilling 16/1, 20/1 bar
Value: First running of this race. I think Piraya is a big old price @ 25/1 (PaddyPower)
5.15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap) (2m 110y)
Poquelin 11/2, French Opera 9/1, Tiger Cry 10/1, Pasco 10/1, Clew Bay Cove 10/1,
My Petra 11/1, 12/1 bar
Trends: 7 left in after applying the trends. Hard race but, Poquelin and French Opera are the only market leaders that pass all the trends
Value: Very little, the winner is usually 10/1 or less, however L’Orient Express is overprice at 16/1 (vcbet, WH, Lad, Betfred) . Tiger Cry won this last year and Moon Over Miami is a lovely horse who love Cheltenham, but need to improve to reach the heights of 2007.