Wednesday’s Cheltenham Preview
Not a bad day yesterday, I think I managed to make a tiny profit, very unusual for the 1st day. Forpadydeplasterer won @ 8/1. Nenuphar Collonges was 3rd @ 17/2 (was 20/1), The Sawyer ran a great race before finishing 5th, hopefully some of you got paid out on that .Boylesports did 5 places and are also offering guaranteed odds, as are Victor Chandler. Enda Bolger had a 1-2-3 in the Cross Country, the only value being the 3rd, Drombeag which was 12/1 for most of the day.
1.30 139th Year Of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (4m)
Can’t Buy Time 9/2f, Kornati Kid 8/1, Coe 9/1, Niche Market 10/1, Forest Leaves 11/1, Parsons Pistol 12/1, 14/1 bar
Wow. For a 4 mile race I can see that most of the field have barely run over 3 ½ m. The only 3 that have managed it are Niche Market, Nine De Sivola and Tank Top. Interesting. However lets go through the trends.
Trends: Were looking for a 7-9yo horse with at least 3 runs over fences and a good run over 3m+, preferably finishing in the top 4 LTO. This isn’t a race for favourites either so plenty of value around. No 6yo has won for 20 years and no 5yo for over 30 years. This doesn’t rule out very many unfortunately. (Drumconvis, Fair Point, Hennesey, Itsa Legend, Le Beau Bai and Nuvelli are scratched) Wichita Lineman is a non-runner after yesterday’s fantastic effort.
Value: Nine De Sivola’s best performance was in the Scottish National (2nd), however this was on good to firm ground and I’m not sure Cheltenham will suit either. We’ll see.
Of the market leaders, I’m probably going to side with Coe @ 9/1 (PaddyPower, Ladbrokes, William Hill or - 7/1 insured first 3 with PP) who’s 2 runs this year at Haydock were pretty impressive. Doesn’t have the course form which is a worry, but no-one stands out in that respect. Parson’s Pistol @ 12/1 (William Hill) is an interesting Irish raider and is worth a small each way. Looks like the market leaders will prevail here, I can’t give you a value e/w selection, so maybe another race to watch.
2.05 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (2m 5f)
Mikael D’Haguenet 7/2f, Karabak 18/5, Diamond Harry 5/1, Mad Max 13/2, The Nightingale 14/1, Quwetwo 20/1, Knockara Beau 20/1, 28/1 bar
Trends: This looks a little easier. Winners of this have finished top 2 in all their completed hurdle starts with a 50% win percentage. They need to have won over at least 2 ½ miles and 21 of the last 23 winner have started in the top 6 of the betting. Only 1 7yo+ winner in this from over 100 runners. 6 yo have won 7 of the last 9.
This leaves Diamond Harry @ 5/1 (Paddypower, Coral), Karabak @ 18/5 (Sportingbet) and The Nightingale @ 14/1 (Sportingbet, Stan James)
Value:
Diamond Harry has done nothing wrong and is a nice price now thanks to Mikael D’Haguenet. Another who looks superb. Of the others Karabak and Mad Max have very good chances. Of the 4 I will plump for Diamond Harry @ 5/1. Each way, Junior @ 40/1 (general) has decent course form with his 3rd in last year’s Coral Cup.
2.40 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase (3m 110y)
Cooldine 7/2f, What A Friend 6/1, Carruthers 6/1, Gone To Lunch, 15/2, Massini’s Maguire, Killyglen 14/1, Casey Jones 14/1, 16/1 bar
Trends: Here, we are looking for horses with form, 1st/2nd LTO (31 of last 34 winners did this), At least 3 runs over fences and the last 10 winners weren’t brought over from the flat. Oh and rated within 14lbs of the RPR top rated. (Bye bye Hold Em, Horner Woods, Lightning Strike, Lodge Lane, The Market Man and Bohemian Lass). Well that’s great, still all the top horses still in, oh well lets look a bit closer.
Value: Never been a What A Friend fan, sorry Alex.... All Gone To Lunch’s wins have been in small field and this will be too competitive for him. I fancy Cooldine @ 7/2f (general)over Carruthers @ 6/1 (general) although both should run well. Ballyfitz @ 22/1 (sportingbet) has excellent course form on the ground and Irish runner Siegemaster @ 25/1 (bet365, Totesport, Sportingbet, Skybet) is well regarded.
3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase (2m)
Master Minded 2/5f, Big Zeb 12/1, Well Chief 14/1, Petit Robin 18/1, Briareus 20/1, Twist Magic 20/1, 50/1 bar
Right, Master Minded @ 2/5f (William Hill) will win by 20 lengths if he jumps well. Each way, Briereus (20/1, Paddypower) looks decent for a place. He beat I’msingingtheblues @ Kempton, before a good 4th in the King George. However his best form is over 3m. Well Chief (14/1)was class, and Twist Magic @ 20/1 is going backwards.
4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) (2m 5f)
The Polomoche 7/1f, Psycho 9/1, Pause And Clause 11/1, Ambobo 12/1, Great Endeavour 12/1, Mirage Dore 16/1, Gee Dee Nen 16/1, 18/1 bar
Trends: The trends rule out a few. Lough Derg is surely carrying too much weight here, though it hasn’t stopped him before. Of the favourites, Gee Dee Nen has won a race as good as this. The other pass the test.
Value: A very tough race. I though Naiad Du Misselot last year was a stand out, however thiis almost impossible. I’ll find 2-3 fun each ways, however minimum stakes advised.
Onnix @ 40/1 (general) 6th in last year’s Pertemps Hurdle, with some good horses ahead of him. Proves he can handle the trak and is worth a dabble.
Ambobo @ 12/1 (Bet365, Coral – both 5 places) looks a little big here and should make the frame
Serabad @ 25/1 (Bet365 – 5 places) – Think this is a big price and I fancy a big run.
Ninetieth Minute @ 18/1 (coral -5 places) Outside chances but should handle the course.
Chief Yeoman @ 33/1 (Boylesports – 5 places) Big price, may sneak a place
4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (2m 110y)
Alexander Severus 5/1f, Miss Sarenne 8/1, Amore Mio 12/1, Ronaldo Des Mottes, 12/1, Higgys Boy 14/1, Silk Affair 14/1, Mr Thriller 14/1, 18/1 bar
This looks a minefield. I think no bet is the best bet. Ok, Mr Thriller to teeny weeny stakes, 5 places at Bet365, 14/1
5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (2m 110y)
Rite Of Passage 9/2, Sicilian Secret 13/2, Dunguib 7/1, Quinola Des Obeaux 11/1, Quel Esprit 12/1, Shinrock Paddy 14/1, 16/1 bar
Trends: Back Willie Mullins horses. He won 6 out of 12 renewals. You’re looking for a horse (aged 5 or 6) that’s won a bumper with 15 or more runners that won LTO.
Value: I really fancy Shinrock Paddy @ 14/1 (Sportingbet – 4 places), he isn’t a Mullins horse but he’s won a bumper round here, the only one to do so. Dunguib @ 7/1 (betfred, Ladbrokes, Bluesq, Skybet) looks the best of the favourites.
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