The last good stuff of the year as far as I'm concerned. The Aintree Festival. Lots of value around normally as Cheltenham winners are horribly short for winning at the races they've been aimed for and some are put in here as an afterthought. There are some exceptions of course and the first is in the first race.
2.00 Liverpool Hurdle
Big Buck's will win off level weights, but at 1/3 he should do. World Hurdle runner-up Time For Rupert is a non-runner, so if there's any value to be had it's elsewhere. Tidal Bay flopped at Cheltenham, but has always preferred Aintree. He's 5/1 so you are getting your money back if he places, and that is of little interest to me. I've followed Bouggler (16/1) and I like him, but he looks one for next season. There are other winners around, but look best watched. If I have a bet it will be on Kayf Aramis (25/1) or (8/1 w/o Big Buck's). He's solid and runs on any ground and will be gunning for a place. Whether he's good enough to do that is a different matter but if I have a bet it will be on him.
2.35 4yo Novices' Hurdle
This looks a race for the favourites and escpecially horses that have run at Cheltenham with 9/10 winners running there and also finishing in the top 2 in either of their last 2 starts (8/10)
Sanctuaire (2/1f) was one of the few favourites to win at Cheltenham, although he was punted heavily on course to do so. He's a little short although a worthy favourite. He beat Notus De La Tour (17/2) by about 9 lengths that day. He's weighted to get closer today and will be up there. Barizan ran superbly for me/us the other week, nailed over the last but he kept plugging on anfter his tired error at the final fence. Now he's 6/1, he's not worth backing but I'll be cheering him on. Super Kenny (5/1) has been talked about for a while and won nicely on his belated debut last month. I can't find an each-way alternative so its not really a betting race for me.
3.10 Totesport Bowl
Imperial Commander (11/10) is the the horse of the day (unfair on Big Buck's perhaps), but the press and bookies are keen to get him beat. Calgary Bay (18/1) is Pricewise's tip. The horse that I would be interested in is What A Friend (100/30), who missed Cheltenham to win this. Nacarat (9/2) and Carruthers (14/1) have had hard front-running races recently and are targets for the others
3.45 Foxhunter's Chase
The top 3 in the market has provided 9/10 winners over the last decade. The biggest priced winner was 8/1 in that time.
Baby Run is looking for the Foxhunter double and I expect him to run really well, but 7/2 is no price in a 21 runner field. The horse that was 3rd that day @ 66/1 was Reach For The Top. I think that was a really good performance and he's still available at 18/1 today. I think that could be excellent value as Baby Run could be targetted by the others if he front runs.
4.20 Red Rum Handicap Chase
A really competative race with a number reopposing each other after a super Grand Annual race won by outsider Pigeron Island. He's happy to run as muh as possible so a 3 week break is no problem, however I have no idea how he won that day and It probably says a lot for the opposition. He's now 8/1 and can't be worth it at that price.
The Grand Annual provides a few winners of this and you won't find many big-priced winners either, so stick to the single figure prices. Consigliere (15/2fav) was unlucky in that race and I'd rather be with him but he's carrying a chunky weight. Safari Journey (8/1) is 8lbs better off today but is priced up accordingly. Nikola (16/1) isn't weighted that favourably but was out of the handicap last time. If he races a bit better this time he may be produced later as he blew up after a mistake 3 out. Chapoturgeon (9/1) has been done up like a kipper by the handicapper and he's still in his grip. He's a very good horse but it will take a fantastic performance carrying top weight here. I'd be suprised if anything else wins this, but if it does I'm not confident of finding it. Safari Journey is a tentative pick.
4.55 Manifesto Novices' Handicap Chase
The Nightingale (11/4) ran well at Kempton (beating Othermix) and missed Cheltenham. It will take a lot to beat Somersby (11/8f) though as he could have beaten an idling Sizing Europe in the Arkle with another 50 yards. Mad Max (11/2) is too short although he was travelling well (was 4th) in the same race before blundering badly coming round the back turn. He battled back well but isn't as good as the other two. Hey Big Spender (8/1) blundered at Cheltenham, while Othermix (22/1) was finishing 2nd, he's as honest as they come but must be outclassed here.
5.30 Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle
Ainama (5/1fav) disappointed at Cheltenham, he's better than that but is short enough for a horse who hasn't won for 7 races. A very competative handicap, I'm looking for something low down the handicap that didn't run at Cheltenham. Majaales (16/1) won comfortably last weekend and I'm fairly keen on him although he should be better next season. Maraafeq (22/1) has won his last 2 races, but this is tougher as you would expect, I think he'll be up there.
Of those Cheltenham horses, Silverhand (11/1) could be considered unlucky after being hampered when he was about to get in the mix, but 11/1 isn't e/w for me so I will pass him over. Sir Harry Ormesher (18/1) was 7th in that race but was another doing his best towards the end, a better ride today could se him up and abouts. Pascha Bere (40/1) had it all to do last time. He's a better horse than that, and I want to see him a bit closer today. The horse I'm going to recommend is Pagan Starprincess (28/1). She's veey consistent, runs on any ground and is on a decent weight here. First time headgear applied today. In a cometative race I think she could do us proud. Pascha Bere's price is too big at 40/1 but is much more speculative.
Selections (my win bets are @ 3/1 or more and each-way bets @ 12/1 or more in 7+ runner races
2.00
WIn: Big Buck's 1/3fav
breaking news only 7 runners so no e/w bet on Kayf Aramis
2.35
No Bet
3.10
Win: What A Friend @ 100/30 (Bet365)
3.45
E/W: Reach For The Top @ 18/1 (Bet365, Stan James)
4 places available 16/1 (sportingbet) 1/5 odds and 14/1 PaddyPower, Skybet 1/4odds
4.20
Win: Safari Joutrney @ 8/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, VCBet, Bet365) small stakes advised
4.55
Win: Somersby @ 11/8fav
5.30
E/W: Pagan Starprincess @ 25/1 (general)
Other possible E/W: Sir Harry Ormesher @ 20/1 (sportingbet); Marafeeq @22/1 (spbet, SJ), Majaales @ 16/1 (general), Pascha Bere @ 40/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, VCBet, Bet365), South O'The Border @ 33/1 (gen)
Good Luck
VH
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