Aintree - Day Two

Not the greatest day yesterday, got out of Jail with Sir Harry Ormesher winning the last and What A Friend coming in too, so we should have a little money for today.

2.00 - John Smith's Top Novices' Hurdle

This should all be about Menorah (6/4f) who won the Supreme Novice's Hurdle at Cheltenham. I won't put you off him but surprise winners at Cheltenham don't often follow up at Aintree. I saw Escort'Men (11/4)hack up at Kempton and there must be more to come from the Nicholls/Walsh combination. La Sarrazine (11/2) seems to be well regarded and has avoided the limelight so far. He may be come up a little short but until we see it we can't really tell, the 4/1-9/2 generally around is far too short. General Miller (12/1) decided to depart at the first fence of the Festival. There was money for him that day and the bookies aren't giving too much away today. Outsider Washington Irvine (25/1) could be the forgotten horse, he didn't run at Cheltenham but is similar to La Sarazine. The former Group 1 flat racer needs to prove he can hack it at the highest level, 25/1 is overpricing him though. I may be tempted.


2.35 - Mildmay Novices' Chase

Burton Port (5/2f) is up and coming, a worthy favourite with an excellent 2nd in the RSA Chase. Ogee (9/2) was pricewised last time and he just failed to beat Chief Dan George and The Package in the William Hill Trophy. Both of these should be up there. Not really anything each-wayable. Khachaturian (12/1) is  an honest enough front-runner, but is likely to set up the race for something else. I backed Door Boy (16/1) at Cheltenham, but he isn't suited to this imho.


3.10 - John Smith's Melling Chase

Forpadydeplaster (5/1) and Kalahari King  (4/1f) renew rivalries here. Pady has beaten him twice and should come on for his Cheltenham 2nd, yet KK is favourite... hmmmm. KK does like Aintree, but he was seriously under par at Cheltenham with ground that should have suited. It definitely does today, but I'd rather be with Pady. Throw in Albertas Run (15/2), Poquelin (6/1), Monet's Garden (8/1) and Deep Purple (9/1) and you probably have the best race at the the meeting. There is nothing else to say really. Schinfdler's Hunt  (16/1) was shite at Cheltenham but is a better horse than that day. Sit back and enjoy this race.


3.45 Topham Handicap Chase

Super, a 28 runner handicap to get my teeth into. With Scotsirish (20/1) being by far the best horse in the race, most of the field will be running from out of the handicap. I'm going to concentrate on the bottom 20 or so... just kidding. I'll start at the bottom and look to back 2-4 horses. Garleton, Oulart, Boomshakalaka, Pomme Tiepy, Commemoration Day and Gaora Lane are too far out of the handicap imho and I will leave them alone. Pak Jack (20/1) has had his moments in the past and has now got his ground. I certainly think he has a big run in him. Quilmar (22/1) is 6 but has plenty of experience, hasn't run on ground as fast as this, but if he goes on it is pretty interesting. Wee Robbie (20/1) has been running in some big races this season, this is more like his sort of race and I won't put you off. He runs better on Good-Soft but is ok on Good. Zacharova (100/1) doesn't do it in big fields, so should be ignored. Oodachee (16/1) was 2nd last year, he's now 11 and hasn't won any money this year, probably best watched.

You need experience of big fields and more than a little luck. A very hard race to pick the winner and I'm always a bottom of the handicap sort of guy, so apologies if something up the top comes along and wins but it shouldn't. I'm probably on Wee Robbie, Quilmar and Pak Jack.

4.20 - Sefton Novice's Hurdle

Right, lets get this out of the way first. I've followed Channinbar for about 6 months. The first time he placed at big odds, he then did bugger all at shorter odds, then he wins after I don't back him. I've then decided that he should be followed and he pulls-up. You out pal....   no more...... Channinbar hosed up at 20/1 yesterday.
I know I'm right, I just need to be right at the right time. So apologies if I channel all by pain into stupidly following Chimirey in this. He was 3rd at Cheltenham @ 33/1 and I was on, but it covered my other bets in the race. If he's come out of Cheltenham ok then he'll be up there. I'll give Western Leader (11/2) a thumbs up too, but i'm focussed on Chimirey here. Probably best to ignore my thoughts and back what you want. Chimirey WILL win a race at nice odds, let's hope its this one.

4.55 - John Smitrh's Handicap Hurdle

Whinestone Boy (14/1) was secretly fancied for the National and this is a poor consolation. I think the bookies have shortened him up because they're afraid. Its not often I big up a favourite, but Cross Kennon (9/1f) does look a good think at an ok price, he's not each way able so I will try and find some value. Clova Island is stepped up to 3 miles. He's been my friend this season. 14/1 is a fair price but nothing exceptional in that respect. Wow I think I've found a decent thing at 25/1. Not sure why Dancing Dik is 25/1. Form at the distance, form on the ground, not got the Class 1 form but how many do. A good 2nd at Newcastle LTO could be the springboard for a shock. Definitely a placepot pick with the other 2.

5.30 National Hunt Flat Race

 The 40/1 winner of the Cheltenham Bumper bashed up all the trends, none of those runners are here. I don't like short priced rookies. The bookies have all the form in the book and there is little value in them. Personally I think its a stay away race, especially if we have bookies money in the bank. A small cheeky bet on Lovey Dovey (22/1) may be preferred but I'm only saying it because I feel I have to say something. A win on Good ground is all we have to go on, but I'm happy to bet it to small stakes.

Selections:
2.00
Win: Menorah @ 13/8fav
E/W: Washington Irvine @ 25/1 (general)

2.35
Win: Burton Port @ 3/1fav (stan James)
E/W: Khachaturian @ 14/1 (Bet365, William Hill)

3.20
No Bet

3.45
E/W: Wee Robbie  @ 20/1 (Bet365)
E/W: Quilimar @ 20/1 (Bet365, PaddyPower - both 5 places)
E:W: Pak Jack @ 20/1 (general, but get 5 places)

4.20
Win: Western Leader @ 11/2fav
E/W: Chimirey @ 12/1 (general, Bet365 and Ladbrokes are 1/4 odds)

4.55
Win: Cross Kennon @ 9/1fav (general)
E/W: Dancing Dik @ 25/1 (bet365, Coral)
E/W: Clova Island @ 14/1 (Bet365, Sportingbet, Coral)

5.30
 E/W: Lovey Dovey @ 22/1 (Sportingbet, Coral)

Fingers crossed
VH