34 was it?
Class
Right. Class is important. Party Politics (1992) was the last horse that hadn't won a race worth £17,000 to the winner.
Horses without the right class to win this are: King John's Castle, Abbeybraney, Flintoff, Oodachee, Officer De Reserve.
This leaves 29.
Big Race Performance
It has come to light from a fellow bettor that since 1989 (yes that bloody Little Polveir buggered up some nice trends that year)... where was I... yes... Since 1989, every winner has done well in a big race. Where big race is a top 3 finish in one of the National Nationals... Irish, Welsh or Scottish. A top 5 finish in the Henessey at Newbury, a top 2 finish over the big Aintree fences or had at least won 3 Chases over 3m (incl. 1 over 3m4+). I've had a look and its competely true, so it seems a good place to start.
Out:
Don't Push It, Cloudy Lane, Nozic, Ballyholland, Can't Buy Time, Beat The Boys, Preists Leap, Snowy Morning, Big Fella Thanks, Ellerslie George, Conna Castle, Ballyfitz, Arbor Supreme, Royal Rosa, Chief Dan George and Offshore Account
Great 16 gone, 13 remain and Ballytrim isn't going to run so a nice round 12 left.
Finally, the Racing Post records only go back 20 years, so the following 2 trends are at least good for the last 20 years. They are: every winner has run between 16-49 days ago and every winner has finished in the top3 at least once in its last 3 races, proving they are in some sort of form.
We can now get rid of the following:
State Of Play (133 days)
Irish Raptor (126 days)
Ollie Magern (form of 467)
Hello Bud (form U87)
My Will (form 757)
Hurray, we now have 7 horses that fit all the trends and I will go through any negatives they have
7 Comply Or Die (22/1, William Hill)
Winner in 2008 and Runner-up in 2009. Is borderline carrying 11-05 round Aintree and never one to show great form in the build-up to the race, but write him off at your peril. Timmy Murphy chose him over The Package today.
9 Niche Market (18/1, Bet365, Totesport, William Hill)
Can't find fault with him really. Ran a superb 3rd in this season's Henessey and was 2nd in the AON Chase in February. Only 9th at Cheltenham behind Chief Day George, The Package, Offshore Account and Ollie Magern, however he made a couple of mistakes while beaten. Will have to carry 11-04 round here and there may be one or two too good.
11 Dream Alliance (40/1, Bet365, Betfred, William Hill, Ladbrokes)
Another carrying a little too much than is ideal. Could be the fairytale winner of the National as his owners are from a working men's club in a small village in Wales and have signed up to a deal to make a film of the horse after he came back from terrible injuries to win the Welsh National at Christmas. Also ran a solid 2nd to Denman in the 2007 Henessey.
24 Character Building (20/1, Betfred, Sportingbet, coral, Ladbrokes)
The perfect horse at the perfect weight. Won The Kim Muir at Cheltenham in 2009, however his 2 runs this seson have hardly set the world alight. Was 12th In the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham, even behind Niche Market. He was bought last week by the same people who bought Party Politics 3 days before his 1992 win.
26 Eric's Charm (50/1, general)
Being 12yo is a bit of a negative but at least he's in form, winning his last 2 races, including a Veteran's Handicap in March, beating Knowhere.
36 Mr Pointment (125/1, Sportingbet)
What can I say. A former Paul Nicholls Grand National Ante-Post Favourite in 2008. This horse has gone backwards ever since he was leading that race until fence 24 (pulled-up going backwards). Ran in the Gold Cup, but only 2 runs in the last 16 months has got to be a big negative. If he comes back to his form of 2007 then he may have a chance, but I would personally avoid him like the plague.
44 Knowhere (100/1, general)
Unlikely to get in and will be one of the reserves until Friday if he doesn't. Anoother 12yo who could get a place if he ran up to his best form.
There you have it, the 7 alleged winners of the Grand National, I will try and write up a couple of lines on all 40 runners if I have time.
Currently there are a number of bookies running to 5 places. They are Bet365, Boylesports, VCbet, Bluesq and Paddy Power. On the day the bookies may stretch to 6 places so it may be worth looking out for those at http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/grand-national, however the bookies that only pay 4 places may well have better prices so its a bit of a trade off.
The first day of the Aintree meeting starts tomorrow. If I fancy anything it will be up before noon.
Good Luck!!
VH
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