Cheltenham Day 1 - Tuesday 13th March

Tuesday 13^th March - Day 1

1.30 - William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle - 2m1/2f - Grade 1

This is the fast-paced opener where there are shocks aplenty and favourites are turned over on a regular basis. This year there are no stand-out odds-on shot to get beaten. As usual we shall try and apply sensible trends to whittle down the wheat from the chaff.

10 year Trends Analysis

10/10 All winners had won at least 50% of their hurdle runs. Sounds obvious and happily it rules out 7 horses straight away.

Removes: Catch Tammy, Colour Squadron, Dylan Ross, Prospect Wells, Simenon, Trifolium, and Vulcanite

10/10 Were officially rated 136+ or had no Official Rating.

Removes: Allure Of Illusion and Distant Memories.

10/10 Have won over 2 miles, confirming Catch Tammy can't win.

9/10 9 Winners have achieved a RP Hurdle rating of at least 137 and were also rated within 12lbs of the RP Top Rated horse Gallileo's Choice. Happily we can rule out some more.

Removes: Agent Archie, Hazy Tom and Jimbill.

9/10 Had run within the last 40 days. If you are looking for a reason why Cue Card got beaten last year, then the fact that he missed a prep run must be a significant factor. I really like Steps To Freedom, but this may also count against him. I'm prepared to look elsewhere on this basis.

Removes: Steps To Freedom. Look to take on Cinders And Ashes and Midnight Game on this basis too.

9/10 Had won last time. All had finished in the top 3. Darlan was travelling well when falling 2 out, but he's short enough now and I'll look to take him on.

Selection:

The three left are GALLILEO'S CHOICE, MONTBAZON and Tetlami. Personally I really like the first 2, but they aren't each-way prices so I won't be advising a bet per se. Tetlami hasn't beaten too much but almost fits all the trends. And I wouldn't be surprised if Cinders And Ashes, Darlan, Midnight Game and Steps To Freedom won.

I definitely think it's going to be a close renewal and it wouldn't surprise me to see 5 or 6 within a length at the last.

2.05 - Racing Post Arkle Trophy Chase - - 2m - Grade 1

I'm really looking forward to this, it looks a fantastic renewal. Just the 6 runners and 4 winners with chances.

I'm not going to chat too much about the trends as its such a small field. The main thing is, Foildubh can't win and I'm against Blackstairmountain. The Arkle punished bad jumping and Menorah, while very talented, just can't put in a perfect round of jumping. If he did he could win, but this looks between the top 3 in the betting.

Selection:

Not original, but SPRINTER SACRE does look very solid. Paddy Power refund your singles if he wins, so its worth backing Al Ferof and Cue Card with them. Al Ferof beat SS in the Supreme Novices last year with Cue Card 4^th. So if there is a chink in the armour of SS then the Cheltenham hill may find him out as it did last year. Cue Card is going to make it a test with a front-running performance and those tactics could throw the race wide open.

2.40 - JLT Speciality Handicap Chase – 3m1/2f – Grade 3

The first handicap of the meeting and hopefully we can find a big priced winner.

10 year Trends Analysis

10/10 Each winner was aged between 7-10 years old. Horses that were 6 or 11+ only managed 1 place from 41 qualifiers.

Removes: Noland, Mon Mome, Our Mick, Mossley, Mount Oscar and Runshan.

10/10 Had an O/R of 129-143. This rules out favourite, Hold On Julio. I still think he has a chance but until he breaks this stat, he won't be carrying my money.

Removes: Quantitiveeasing, Hold On Julio, Zarafakt, Magnaminity, Alfie Sherrin, Bottman, Riquez Dancer and Penteffic.

9/10 Had won over 3 miles or more. Seems pretty important to me. All the last 9 winners had, although Bensalem only won a PtP.

Removes: Tullamore Dew

Selection: 4 are left and there are holes in 3 of them. Baile Anrai (16/1) is a nice weight and ticks lots of boxes. He has fallen twice this season and I don't really want him onside. I won't put you off Billie Magern (33/1) but he falls short at the highest level IMHO. The Package is interesting, Chief Dan George beat him 2 years ago. He's been off the track for nearly 500 days and I can't be taking 6/1 about him. The one for me is FRUITY O'ROONEY (25/1). 3^rd to Calgary Bay at Doncaster in the SkyBet Chase, I think that is pretty good form. I won't rule out Hold On Julio but he's too short. Zarrafact may be too highly rated but with Quantitativeeasing compressing the weights I definitely wouldn't put you off backing him at 16/1 or so.

3.20 - Stan James Champion Hurdle Trophy – 2m1/2f – Grade 1

I like to back each-way only if I think my selection has a chance of winning. I really think only Binocular can beat Hurricane Fly and I don't wish to have an each-way bet on only 1 or 2 places.

10 year Trends Analysis

10/10 Every winner has run within the last 51 days. Fit and ready.

Removes: Overturn and Rock On Ruby

10/10 Every winner has won over today’s distance.

Removes: Oscars Well

9/10 5 year old don't have a great record and even though Katchit won in 2008, they still have to be opposed

Removes: Brampour, Kalann and Zarkandar

9/10 Top Speed Rating of 152 or more.

Removes: Zaidpour (who semi-fails 3 other categories as well)

Selection:

I fully expect HURRICANE FLY to win. But if Binocular runs as he did 2 years ago and how he looked to have run last time, then he could mount a serious challenge. Celestial Halo hits many of the trends here and is clear 3^rd best at 80/1. However he isn't good enough to win and won't be carrying my money. Maybe a market without HF could provide a bit of e/w value but there are plenty of youngsters who I'd rather see running well.

4.00 - Glenfarclas Cross-County Handicap Chase – 3m7f – Class 2

Always a bone of contention for its inclusion. I like it, its a nice race just after the Champion Hurdle and hopefully I can find a runner or two to get some money. Good-to Firm ground is forecast for the course.

7 year Trends Analysis

7/7 All were trained in Ireland. Enda Bolger used to hold all the Aces and now Willie Mullins wants some action. Until I find out otherwise, I'm happy to stick with those from over the water but I want to find another reason to not back the English.

7/7 Placed in a Cheltenham or Punchestown Cross-Country Chase. The carnage in December means that some who would have, didn't and those that couldn't, did. However it's still a fact that experience counts.

Removes: Balthazar King, Midnight Haze, Fortification, Dream Alliance, Gone To Lunch (all are English trained too)

6/7 Won over at least 3 miles. Sizing Australia (2011) had not, so again I want something else to take out a selection.

Removes: Dancing Tornado and Jacks Island (who both haven't been placed in a XCC)

6/7 Had an Official Rating of 126-143. Garde Champetre (in 2009) was top -rated in 150. So Top- Rated horses can and do win, but 5 of the 7 carried less than 11 stone. I want to be against Top-Weights. Only 3 have won in the last 10 years in 101 races (2 in this). 6 winners had run within 38 days of their last race so fitness is definitely important.

Removes: Uncle Junior (OR 156 and 95 days off). Wedger Pardy (off same time also isn't Irish-t rained), Maljimar (off 175 days and non-Irish).

Selections:

A few former champions turn out in this and while each has a decent chance, I WILL find something at a nice price. Scotsirish (3/1fav) probably would have won in December and he's priced accordingly. He's rated higher than any other winner and I'm looking elsewhere. Garde Champetre was the lucky beneficiary of the carve-up last time in December, an each-way chance at best I'm afraid. Sizing Australia (5/1) is too short for me although I think he'll make the frame. A NEW STORY (18/1) won this at a huge price in 2010 and could be too old. He will run his race again and can be backed each-way for a good run for your money. TALLY EM UP (33/1) has a similar profile to Sizing Europe, he hasn't won over 3miles yet, but has placed twice behind Scotsirish at Punchestown this season and is my sort of price. Ignore his last run on heavy ground, he has a win on good ground and could place at big odds.

Balthazar King has a record of W5-Pl3 from 17 runs on Good or Good-Firm ground, so although he fails the profile of the winner, he may get his ground.

4.40 - OLBG Mares Hurdle (David Nicholson Trophy) – 2m4f – Grade 2

The Quevega retirement fund. She's good enough to beat the boys but would rather win this. Won the last 3 of the 4 renewals, the last two years off a long break too. Nothing should get near her.

Violin Davis beat Kentford Grey Lady and Our Girl Salley at Ascot in January, but needed Ruby Walsh's guile to get her there.

Selections: QUEVEGA (4/7fav). The 5 I fancy to finish runner up are the three that fought out the mares race at Ascot in January. Violin Davis beat Kentford Grey Lady and Our Girl Salley then, but she needed Ruby Walsh's guile to get her there. Add in Swincombe Flame and Kells Belle and you probably have the foundation of a banker tricast.

5.20 - Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase – 2m41/2f - Listed

A nice Novice Handicap to finish, shame I'm never close to finding the winner of this, so it's not the get-out stakes race to finish off Day 1. Divers smashed the 6 years-worth of trends last year, so I will tread with caution.

7 year Trends Analysis (I'm only removing horses that fully fail 2 or more trends)

7/7 Every winner had finished Top 2 in their last race.

7/7 Raced between 3 and 6 times over fences

Removes: The Panama Kid and Vino Griego

7/7 All winners weighed less than 11-5. (however this year the bottom-weight is 11-4)

6/7 The first 6 winners were never out of the Top 4 in their Chase completions. (Divers excepted)

6/7 The first 6 has won none or only 1 of their Chases (Divers)

6/7 The last 6 were rated 132-139 by the handicapper (King Harald in 2005 was only 123)

Removes: Hunt Ball and Saint Are

6/7 Had won over at least 2m2f, 5yo Chapoturgeon (2009) was the fly in the ointment here.

Removes: Falcon Island

6/7 Had raced within the last 30-43 days. Finger onthe Pulse (2008) was off 60 days.

Removes: Battle Group, Quincy Des Pictons, White Star Line, Carrickboy, Cucumber Run and Educated Evans (all either ran within 30 days or are off for more than 60 days)

5/7 7yo's have won 5 runnings of this. A co-incidence maybe but 6-8 yo's must be the percentage play.

Removes: Going Wrong (9yo)

Selection:

8 are left and any of these could win, as could any that I've removed I expect. All have little negatives against their names too, but I'm going to get this right one day.

Bless The Wings is interesting but at 8/1 should be. I'm after each-way value so I can't back him. Owen Glendower is 20/1 but only ran 19 days ago and Barry Geraghty chooses Triolo D'Alene (6/1fav) who will be in my placepot but is too short for me. MIC'S DELIGHT (off for 23 days) has a real chance and at 20/1 I think he's worth a little dabble. Charminster (20/1) has a few too many question marks for me and still hasn't won over 18f or more under rules. ACKERTAC (14/1) followed Triolo D'Alene home but gets a 7lb pull for a 2l defeat. 52 days off his only slight negative. He's one I want to back if I can get at least 12/1. That'Ll Do (25/1) off for 151 days is not good and was 5^th on his penultimate start. I can't have him but he may make the frame if fit.

HARPSY CORD (22/1). The Racing Post don't fancy him, so that's a plus. Ran 24 days ago, but I'm happy to put him in my plans. So that's 3 against the field. If one places then it should be money-back.