Irish Grand National 2012

The Irish Grand National is a Grade A Handicap run over 3m5f at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday. Whilst the trends aren't as strong as in the British Grand National, we still have a good set of trends to analyse.

10-Years Trends
10/10     Every winner carried less than 10-13 in weight. Yes weight is important in marathon trips and we have to dismiss the top weights here.
10/10     Every winner was rated between 121 and 136 by the official handicapper. This will rule out those bad horses at the bottom of the racecard.
10/10     Every winner had won a Chase over 2m5f or more. 8 had won over 3 miles or more. Some trainers run 2 milers in this and they can't win. I'd rather my horses had won over 3 miles. Organisedconfusion (2011) and Hear The Echo (2008) had only won over 2m5f, so we have to treat with caution.

10/10     Every winner had raced in less than 12 Chases, no exposed chasers please.
10/10     Every winner had previously run to a RP Chase Rating of 135 or more.
10/10     Every winner had won a Chase on a Right-Handed course
9/10     Most winners had run in a Handicap Chase worth £42,000 or more. Numbersixvalvede (2005) had contested a £34,000 chase. Horses that win this have to be thought of as a decent standard of Chaser.
9/10     Had contested a 3 mile Chase. You'd think this was a given, but surprisingly not. 6 year-old Organisedconfusion did not.
9/10     Had run within the last 51 days. 7 weeks. Fitness is key in these races and only Hear The Echo was off for 87 days.
9/10     Were aged 6-9yo. Granit D'estruval (2004) was 10. Organisedconfusion was 6. 8 of the winners were 7-9yos, although 6yos have won one and placed twice from only 9 qualifiers.

Trainers:
Michael Hourigan (0-6-12) has an excellent record, with 6 of his horses getting place money from only 12 entrants. Arthur Moore (1-3-14) and Dessie Hughes (1-3-17) are the best trainers with a win. Ferdy Murphy and Jonjo O'Neill both have a win and a place from 4 entrants form over the North Sea.

Removals:
Carrying more than 10-13:
Removes: Roi Du Mee, Magnaminity, Osana, Allee Garde, Catch Me, Lastoftheleaders and Western Charmer

Rated out of the 121-136 band:
Removes: Aigle D'Or and Gift Of Dgab

Failed to win a Chase over 2m5f or more:
Removes: Four Commanders, Prince Erik, Shakervilz, Whatuthink, Whodoyouthink, Deal Done, Out Now and Raptor


Ran in more than 12 Chases:
Leanne, The Last Derby, Paddy Pub and Saddlers Storm

Best RP Chase Rating of less than 135:
Glam Gerry

Failed to win a Chase on a Right-Handed Course
Alfie Sherrin and Start Me Up

Also Consider removing these:
Not run in a Handicap Chase worth £42,000 or more:
Lion Na Bearnai, Ninetieth Minute.
Not run in a 3m Chase:
Ninetieth Minute
Last Ran more than 51 days ago:
Groody Hill and Cross Appeal
Aged 10 or more:
Lion Na Bearnai

Entries:
***** Perfect trendswise and must be seriously considered
SOME TARGET (25/1), ARABELLA BOY (25/1). Both are better on softer ground and the bet may be for Cross Appeal who is decent on all ground conditions, however the horses that have acted on faster ground basically aren't good enough to win the event.

****   Don't rule out. Has a good e/w chance.
Groody Hill (10/1jfav), CROSS APPEAL (14/1)

***1/2  Just can't recommend a bet, but if they won, I wouldn't be surprised.
Four Commanders (10/1jfav), Ninetieth Minute (14/1), Alfie Sheerin (14/1) Start Me Up (20/1), Paddy Pub (25/1), Lion Na Bearnai (33/1), The Last Darby (50/1),

***     Don't think they can win, but place money is not out of the question.
Glam Gerry (20/1), Magnaminity (28/1), Leanne (28/1), Shakervilz (28/1), Prince Erik (33/1), Saddler's Storm (33/1)

**       Will do well to get round
Allee Garde (14/1),  Raptor (33/1), Roi Du Mee (40/1), Whatuthink (50/1)

*         Has no chance.
Lastoftheleaders (16/1), Aigle D'Or (20/1), Catch Me (20/1), Western Charmer (20/1), Gift Of Dgab (25/1),  Out Now (25/1), Deal Done (33/1), Osana (40/1),  Whodoyouthink (50/1)