1 Syncronised 8/1fav
Trainer: Jonjo O'Neill Jockey: Tony McCoy
The Cheltenham Gold Cup winner heads the weights, however he was top-weight before he won it and is now “well-in” (ie the handicapper has rated him 167 if the weights for the National came out today). Of course that wouldn't help him in here as he'd still carry 11-10. He's also only had 9 Chase runs, but it would be lovely to see him win. Expect him to be running on through beaten horses if his Gold Cup exploits haven't taken their toll and he may sneak a place.
2 Ballabriggs 14/1
T: Donald McCain J: Jason Magiuire
Last years winner. It seems that that win took it out of him last year and he's had a delayed preparation this year. This is not good news as his only run looked good before he ran out of puff in the run in. He'll come on for the run but it will be tough carrying this weight around Aintree.
3 Weird Al 40/1
T: Donald McCain J; Timmy Murphy
Good horse, just short of top class, but has the scope to improve. Pulled-up in the Gold Cup but I don't see this as his thing and I'd rather he didn't run. Only 9 Chase starts and is carrying too much weight.
4 Calgary Bay 33/1
T: Henrietta Knight J: Dominic Elsworth
Seems to have been around forever but is still only 9. Looks in good form with a Skybet Chase win at he end of January under his belt, but hasn't run since then and that is a negative for me. He fell last year whilst carrying 10-10 and I think he's now in the handicapper's grip (on 11-6) to ever win this.
5 Neptune Collonges 33/1
T: Paul Nicholls J: Daryl Jacob
Decent horse who's a bit long in the tooth now. He's got 11-6 on his back and at has been off since his good 2nd in the National Trial (behind Giles Cross) 56 days ago.
6 Alfa Beat 40/1
T: John Joseph Mangan J: TBD
Failed to finish in his last 2 starts, but won a good handicap before that. At 8 years old he's a bit on the young side and is too highly rated to really be winning this but.....
7 Planet Of Sound 33/1
T: Philip Hobbs J: Richard Johnson
Won a weak-ish Grade 1 at Punchestown 2 seasons ago, but has only had 2 runs this season, a good 2nd in an average Hennessey and 3rd in the Racingplus Chase. So he's in form but is a little high in the weights for me.
8 Black Apalachi 50/1
T: Dessie Hughes J: Denis O'Regan
He's record in the National is FU2. Great numberplate!! Has won over these fences in the Becher Chase in 2008, however he's old, very old at 13 and his chance went 2 years ago. His only run this season was 2nd in the Bobbyjo Chase behind Prince De Beauchene so can't be ruled out for a place, but he won't be carrying my money.
9 Deep Purple 66/1
T: Evan Williams J: Jamie Moore
Won a 3m6f handicap at Sandown in December on his seasonal début but fell in the Racingplus Trophy. These are his only 2 runs this season, that and him being an 11yo carrying 11-3 make him less likely of a winner, but he can run well
10 Junior 12/1
T: David Pipe J: Tom Scudamore
One of the favourites for this years renewal on the back of him hosing up in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last season and then a good 2nd giving 22lbs to Ikorudu Road in the Grimthorpe Chase after 8 months off (winner won again since), but is far too inexperience to be winning this with just 8 Chases under his belt. Only 2 runs this season and whilst 11-2 is ok to carry round, he's far to short to back this year.
11 Chicago Grey 16/1
T: Gordon Elliott J: TBD
Won the 4 miler at Cheltenham in 2011. But not so hot this season. Can't rule him out on that evidence but doesn't seem to love his racing as much this season when I've backed him. Not seen a racetrack for 56 days is a slight negative too.
12 Tatenen 100/1
T: Richard Rowe J: Andrew Thornton
At his best over 2m5f, and certainly hasn't won over 3 miles or more. He's a little young (8yo) and has been off the track for 56 days.
13 According To Pete 40/1
T: Malcolm Jefferson J: Harry Haynes
Really come good this year with 2 big handicap wins. He hits all the trends but is just out of the perfect age trend (11yo). Back him and you should get a good run for your money.
14 Seabass 20/1
T: Ted Walsh J: Ms Katie Walsh
Irish raider, who hits all the trends, but his only 3m wins were in Point-to-Point races. He's in hot form over shorter and could either win or blow out. Worth backing at 20/1 but I'd stay clear if he's shorter.
15 Shakalakboomboom 25/1
T: Nicky Henderson J: Barry Geraghty
2nd in the Skybet Chase behind Calgary Bay last time but won a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham in December. He fits all the major trends, but is just 8 years old and has only 9 Chases under his belt Has a good chance of making the frame at least.
16 West End Rocker 14/1
T: Alan King J: Wayne Hutchinson
Romped home in this season's Becher Chase (same fences) beating Niche Market by 22 lengths, but hasn't run since (133 days). Only having 2 runs to his name this season means he has to break 2 trends but any more rain will be in his favour.
17 On His Own 14/1
T: Willie Mullins J: Ruby Walsh
Where to start? He's very inexperienced with just 6 Chase starts and is only 8. He did win the Thyestes Chase over at Gowran Park in January, but with only 2 runs this season and having been off since that win, he has it all to do on the trends. Ruby Walsh prefers him and he's halved in price. Pass over this year.
18 Always Right 28/1
T: John Wade J: James Reveley
3rd in last season's Scottish Grand National, pulled-up in last 2 starts (on soft & heavy ground). Has ability and can't be ruled out, although he's been off for a stat-busting 56 days.
19 Cappa Bleu 14/1
T: Evan Williams J: Paul Moloney
Rarely raced and thus only has 6 Chase starts despite being a 10yo. Has ability and can be expected to run through beaten horses at the end. Will he win? Doubtful as he may have too much to do by then, but won the Foxhunters' at Cheltenham 3 years ago off a year break, so a 56 day break may not be the hardest trend to bust for him.
20 Rare Bob 40/1
T: Dessie Hughes J: Bryan Cooper
This horse is the perfect trends match. However I really don't think he can win. He hasn't won at a trip for 3 years and isn't really in any sort of form. I'm taking half a mark off for that, however he does pass ALL the trends.
21 Mon Mome 50/1
T: Venetia Williams J: Aidan Coleman
The winner when out of form in 2009, now he's really out of form with his seasonal numbers being 52PP0. He's 12 now and his best years are behind him. I hope he runs well but shouldn't be up there this time.
22 Organisedconfusion 25/1
T: Arthur Moore J: Miss Nina Carberry
Busted a lot of trends by winning last season's Irish Grand National as a 6 year old. Will need to crack some more at 7 this year. It's the only trend he fails and he can win in future years, but must be ignored because he's so young.
23 The Midnight Club 33/1
T: Willie Mullins J: TBD
Finishing a distant 9th in the Gold Cup strangely move him up in the trends, however he really isn't the sort to be winning this. However he passes all the trends with the slight niggle being at he's 11 and just misses the sweet age of previous winners.
24 Treacle 20/1
T: Tom Taaffe J: Andrew Lynch
3rd, 7 lengths behind Quel Esprit in the Irish Hennessy. He has a chance at a nice weight but has been off for 2 months and is now 11 so is ignored.
25 Arbor Supreme 66/1
T: Jonjo O'Niell J: TBD
Fell in last years face when I fancied him. He's not run since December and only has 2 starts to his name this season. His last 3 runs give form figures of F-60 and clearly has it all to do this year.
26 Sunnyhillboy 16/1
T: Jonjo O'Neill J: Richie McLernon
He's the perfect match. He won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham (due to go up 10lbs for it) and I hope it didn't take too much out of him, but with a month off he's got sufficient rest. He's got a very good chance if he back to his best.
27 Killyglen 16/1
T: Stuart Crawford J: Robbie Power
Another with the perfect profile. His Down Royal win last month should have put him spot on and he's been running over Hurdles to keep him out of the handicappers spotlight.
28 Quiscover Fontaine 50/1
T: Willie Mullins J: David Casey
He'll be lucky to make it round once. He's has only 7 Chase starts and has been off the track for 77 days. Throw in a lack of a win over 3 miles or more and that his 2 Chase wins won £7k in each and we don't have a National winner. Oh he's also a bit young at 8 years old too.
29 Tharawaat 125/1
T: Gordon Elliott J: TBD
He's only 7 and is out of form with his season runs showing 13077. His biggest chase win was a £13k victory in October. He shouldn't be winning.
30 Always Waining 40/1
T: Peter Bowen J: Tom O'Brien
He's the winner of the Topham Chase at this festival in the last 2 seasons. So he loves the course and loves the fences. He doesn't win anywhere else nowadays. His minor problems are that he's an 11yo who's not in winning form. He still has a chance, but I'd rather he was in better form than 409 in his last 3 runs. The '4' was in the Becher Chase behind West End Rocker on heavy ground.
31 Becauseicouldntsee 20/1
T: Noel Glynn J: TBD
Ran a cracker behind Sunnyhillboy at Cheltenham. Fell in last years race, but his only win at 3m was in a Point-to-Point. His only Chase win was worth £10k in 2010 and is passed over due to that.
32 Le Beau Bai 40/1
T: Richard Lee J: TBD
He fits all the trends but has been off the track for 56 days, a week to much according to our trends.
He should go well and has to be considered.
33 State Of Play 50/1
T: Evan Williams J: Noel Fehily
Has placed in the last 3 Nationals, despite being off the track for long periods before each race. This will be his seasonal début again this year and is now 12 so if he was going to win, he'd have done it by now. Can he place again is a more pertinent question.
34 Swing Bill 80/1
T: David Pipe J: TBD
He Pulled-Up in the Becher Chase and was well down the field in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. He's raced too many times this season for my liking, I'm not too worried that this 11yo has “only” won a £15k Chase, but I'll be looking elsewhere
35 Postmaster 66/1
T: Tim Vaughan J: TBD
Has picked up some small prize money recently, but has only won a £10k Chase so far and looks out of his depth here. However he passes the other trends and is rated a 4 star.
36 Giles Cross 16/1
T: Victor Dartnall J: Paddy Brennan
The ground has softened at Aintree and with more rain to come his price has plummeted now he's in the race as he loves the marathon chases in bottomless ground. He's been off for 56 days but his record this year is Southern National (1st), Welsh National (2nd), Grand National Trial (1st) and placed in a previous Eider Chase, Welsh National and Midlands National so is well respected.
37 Midnight Haze 125/1
T: Kim Bailey J: TBD
Has a chance of some place money if he can get the run of the race, however he's only had 2 runs this season and his best win was only a Class 3 Handicap worth £7k, better value elsewhere.
38 Vic Venturi 66/1
T: Dessie Hughes J: TBD
Similar to Black Apalachi, if he was going to win the race he would have done so by now. Failed to finish through no fault of his own in the last 2 renewals but only managed to clear 3 fences in total.
He's been off for 62 days and if getting a little long in the tooth.
39 In Compliance 150/1
T: Dessie Hughes J: Leighton Aspell
Decent horse in his day but beset by injury problems. Now 12, he was never a National Horse with his best form over 21/2miles and coupled with him only having 2 runs this season can easily be dismissed.
40 Viking Blond 100/1
T: Nigel Twiston-Davies J: TBD
Very inexperienced 7 year old (5 Chase runs) and his only win was a Novice Chase worth £3k. Off for 56 days as well after missing Cheltenham. Maybe another year.
--------------------- HORSES ABOVE THIS LINE ARE GUARANTEED A RUN ---------------------
41 Hello Bud 80/1
T: Nigel Twiston-Davies J: Sam Twiston-Davies
Old war-horse who's now 14, but will happily bowl around up front looking like the winner before fading in the final quarter of the race. Previous Scottish National Winner in 2009 and Becher Chase winner in 2010. He was 5th in 2010 and Pulled-Up last year. Not the horse he was and has finished 5U654 this season.
42 Neptune Equester 150/1
T: Brian Ellison J: TBD
Lost his way in the winter after a productive summer, faster ground may be the key as he was punted into 11/2 for the Grimthorpe but ran badly. He's officially rated ”not good enough to win this” and misses the £17k win stat by “only” winning a £16k Chase at Haydock in November.
43 Any Currency 80/1
T: Martin Keighley J: Alain Cawley
Not won since 2009 which was his best result (worth £12k), his last 3 runs are P47 and isn't good enough to win and he's also been off since January's Argento Chase at Cheltenham.
44 Our Island 150/1
T: Tim Vaughan J: TBD
Probably the worst horse in the race for National purposes. He's 7. Only rated 130. Has 7 Chases, this season, under his belt. Is out of form (658). Hasn't won a Chase so far, so his 3m+ form is over hurdles.
45 Abbeybraney 150/1
T: George Bewley J: Ryan Mania
Rated 128, his only Chase win was a Novice Chase in 2009 worth £9k. He's now 11 and doesn't look like improving now.
46 Smoking Aces 150/1
T: Tom Taaffe J: TBD
Rated 128, he's been out of the money in his last 3 (064) starts and if that isn't enough he “only” won a £15k Chase and is a little young being 8.
47 Ballyvesey 150/1
T: Peter Bowen J: TBD
Rated 125, this 7yo also hasn't won over 3 miles or more and his biggest win was only £3k. He hasn't been seen for a “huge 50 days”.
HORSES RATED BY CHANCE OF WINNING
The perfect profile and I expect a big run
SUNNYHILLBOY (16/1) and KILLYGLEN (16/1)
Solid horses who have a good chance
Giles Cross (16/1), Chicago Grey (16/1), Seabass (20/1), Shakalakaboomboom (25/1), The Midnight Club (33/1), According To Pete (40/1), Rare Bob (40/1), Le Beau Bai (40/1)
A place run is possible, but I'd be surprised if they won.
Cappa Bleu (14/1), Treacle (20/1), Organisedconfusion (25/1), Always Right (28/1), Always Waining (40/1), Alfa Beat (40/1), Postmaster (66/1), Deep Purple (66/1)
A Top 10 finish will be a bonus
Synchronised (8/1fav), Junior (12/1), West End Rocker (14/1), Ballabriggs (14/1), Becauseicouldntsee (20/1), Planet Of Sound (33/1), Weird Al (40/1), Black Apalachi (50/1), Mon Mome (50/1), State Of Play (50/1), Vic Venturi (66/1), Swing Bill (80/1), Hello Bud (80/1), Tatenen (100/1), Midnight Haze (125/1), Abbeybraney (150/1)
Will do well to get round.
On His Own (14/1), Calgary Bay (33/1), Neptune Collonges (33/1), Quiscover Fontaine (50/1), Arbor Supreme (66/1), Any Currency (80/1), Viking Blond (100/1), Tharawaat (125/1), Our Island (150/1), Neptune Equester (150/1), Smoking Aces (150/1), Ballyvasey (150/1), In Compliance (150/1)
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