Grand National 2012 - Trends analysis

The Grand National is the easiest horse race to find a big-priced winner in..!!. that's because the same sort of horses win it every year.It's true, this year looks a pretty good renewal with some very good horses including the Gold Cup winner, Synchronised, heading the weights at the moment and with Ballabriggs, last years champ, back for more.

Every winner has conformed to the following trends since Miinnehoma won for comedian Freddie Star in 1993.


Aged 8-12
No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (13yo) who won in 1923. This year, horses younger than 7 years old are banned from taking part. It's a sensible approach as they are too young and inexperienced to run well over the course and distance.

The actual sweet spot for Grand National winners is either 9 or 10 year olds. 8 year-olds haven't really developed the stamina reserves to win over 41/2 miles, and horses older than 10 are on the downgrade and whilst they have sufficient stamina, may lack the pace to go on and win.

Only one 8 year-old has won the race since 1992, Bindaree (in 2002).
The only 11 year old since 1994 was Red Marauder in 2001 in the race with only 4 finishers on heavy ground.
Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995.

The bottom line is 13 of the last 16 winners were aged 9 or 10 years old. They are generally at their peak at this age and have the correct balance of speed and stamina to win the race. Don't rule out the 8 year olds or 11/12 year olds until the shortlist needs trimming some more.



Winning form over at least 3 miles
Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 41/2 miles.


Carrying less than 11st 6lbs
The best horse in the race will carry the biggest weight, but they don't often win the Grand National. It's a huge burden to lump nearly 12 stone around 41/2 miles and it takes it toll. Grand National hero Red Rum (1977) was the last horse to carry more than 11-05 in the National and win. It was his 3rd win at the age of 12 and was a superb performance. In fact Red Rum (12-00 in 1974) is the only horse since Sundew in 1957 to lump more than 11-05 around the course in a winning cause. Since Phil Smith (handicapper) compressed the weights (top weight carries 11-10 now) and the race has attracted better quality horses, the bottom weights now carry a little more weight than they used to. The cut-off for this trend was 11-00, when the bottom weights carried just 10-00 or 10-01, but now that horse no. 40 maybe carrying 10-04 to 10-06, we have to up the weight a winning horse may carry so we don't miss him. We caught Don't Push It in 2010, who carried 11-05 to win because of this (but I ruled him out as he was so out of form). The next trend runs parallel with this one.


Officially Rated between 136-155
This trend will rule out many of the horses that the previous one does, but also catches out those really crap horses that used to run at the bottom of the handicap but now rarely get in the race, and can be used to dump these horses at the first declaration stage.



Must have run within the previous 49 days
It works so far, you may want to let off horses that are within a few days of this upper end of this. Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996 and Hedgehunter, the 49 days for the trend. Horses need to be race fit to win this and horses start losing their edge after a long break, either enforced or otherwise. We want a horse that is ready to race. State Of Play is hard to get right so his connections just take his chance in the race and he's finished 4th (109 days off) in 2009, 3rd (133d) in 2010 and 4th (364d) last year. If he'd been fitter for the race he'd have won one of them.


Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year.


Have run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, like Synchronised, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording Junior (8) the same.


Have won a chase worth at least £17,000
You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. Every winner has won a Chase worth at least this amount of money. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend.


Have raced between 3 and 6 times in the season
Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National. Ballabriggs has only the 1 run since last year's win and this isn't good enough. He had a very hard race last year and it may have taken a while for him to be in the shape to race, but he's only had the one run this season and faded after looking the winner in the run in. He'll benefit for the run but he'll need a lot more with a heavy weight to lump round too. Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since has had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet.


Conclusion:
Winning Profile
Aged 8-12
Won over more than 3 miles 
Carrying less than 11-05
OR between 136-155
Last run between 16-49 days ago
Top 3 finish in his last 3 runs
9+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £17k to the winner
Between 3-6 runs that season

If you want to refine it further

Perfect Profile
Aged 9 or 10
Carrying less than 11-01
10+ Chases
Between 4-6 runs that season

These are the trends that sort the Winners from the also-rans. Horse do wind-up in the places that fail some of the trends. We want to find the winner, even if we are backing each-way.

Good luck, i'll be back next week  to go through the entrants at the 5 day declaration stage.