John
Smith's Grand National Handicap Chase – Grade 2 – 4m 31/2f
Horse
Age-Wgt (st-lbs) Odds Winning Chance
Imperial
Commander 12-11-10 16/1 **
Gold
Cup winner of 2010, who has had terrible injury problems since. Great
comeback run in January but he's a 12yo carrying top weight and has
just that run this season.
What
A Friend 10-11-09 50/1 **
Seldom
seen now and regressing from the Grade 1 winner he was a couple of
years ago. Carrying too much weight, he was pulled-up last year.
Weird
Al 10-11-08 50/1 ***
A
Grade 1 winner, who doesn't look the type to win this. Ran poorly
this season and carries too much weight.
Quel
Esprit 9-11-07 50/1 **
A
little inexperienced (just 9 chases), but a Grade 1 Chase winner last
season. His only run was a disappointing 4th of 4 in February. The
last of the 'big' weights.
Big
Fella Thanks 11-11-06 40/1 ****
4th
and then 7th in this race. Would be amazed if he then came
back and won, but does hit all the main trends but is too high in the
weights realistically.
Seabass 10-11-06
11/1 ***
Katie
Walsh became the best lady in National history with her 3rd
last year. The 110 yard decrease in distance will be in his favour as
he blew up when looking the winner over the last. Careful build-up
this season after winning all 5 races last year. Just 2 runs not
ideal, and still not won under rules over 3 miles. Punished for last
years performance by the handicapper and is thus too high in the
weights.
Roberto
Goldback 11-11-06 33/1 ****
Honest
horse who won a decent handicap in the autumn. A bit too high in the
weights for me and this trip may be too far for him, however he
passes the main trends.
Sunnyhillboy 10-11-04
16/1 ***
Back
for more, after a superb 2nd last year. Hiked up the
weights for that and he missed the Gold Cup through a bad scope on
the morning of the race (official story). Last year he won at
Cheltenham, this year he missed it and that absence is a big
negative. A 5th and Pulled-Up in his 2 runs and is a
little too high in the weights. I think his race was last year, but
place chances are up for grabs.
Ballabriggs 12-11-04
20/1 ****
Race
winner of 2011. Didn't look like he'd win last year, but ran superbly
for 6th. A little lower in the weights this year, but he's
now 12 years old. Place chances.
Teaforthree
9-11-03 14/1 *****
Welsh
National runner-up at Christmas, but a disappoint 10th in
the National Trial at Haydock last time. He passes all the trends,
but is a little high in the weights.
Across
The Bay 9-11-02 33/1 ****
7th
in the Welsh National, before recording a fine Hurdle success in
February. His biggest Chase win (£20k) isn't perfect and might be
better served over shorter distances.
Join
Together 8-11-02 16/1 **
A
little on the young side and inexperienced to boot. Very high in the
weights for what he's achieved and is easily passed over. On the plus
side he was 2nd in this year's Becher Chase over these
fences.
Colbert
Station 9-11-01 12/1 ***
Tony
McCoy's preference. It would be a huge feat to win with just 5 Chase
starts behind him. Not been seen for 2 months and looks good at about
3 miles. On the plus side Ted Walsh knows how to win a National and
if you can get past his inexperience, he could be a player.
Forpadydeplasterer 11-11-00
66/1 ****
Former
Arkle Chase winner who never went on. Famous for finishing 2nd
8 times in 8 completions, he's nowhere near that consistent now. This
is a big step up in trip for him but he does tick a lot of boxes. His
3m Chase win looks the limit of his talents though.
On
His Own 9-11-00 7/1f ***
Favourite,
but he was better treated last year when he fell (was going well).
Only has 7 Chase starts behind him and only been seen once since last
year's race.
Joncol 10-10-13
50/1 *****
Another
Grade 1 winner who hasn't fulfilled his promise. (no win in 18
months). Passes all the trends, but unproven past 3 miles.
Balthazar
King 9-10-12 20/1 ***
Definitely
a contender if he is over his injury problems, but off the track for
5 months and only 2 races this year are negatives. Will stay all day
if he's race fit.
Cappa
Bleu 11-10-11 12/1 ***
4th
last year, but still slightly inexperienced (9 Chases). Only 2 runs
this season, and his Foxhunters win 4 years ago at Cheltenham remains
his biggest prize. Similar place chances this year for this
ultra-consistent runner.
Oscar
Time 12-10-11 66/1 ****
A
little old (12yo) for perfection. Absolutely no form in the book
(last win 2009) and a fortunate 4* horse. But he does pass all but
one of the trends.
Always
Waining 12-10-10 40/1 ***
Won
the Topham Chase (over these fences) 3 years in a row and connections
must want him to take his chance before its too late (he's 12). He
does have a 3m Chase win behind him, well behind him as it was 6
seasons ago. 2m5f looks his distance and is overlooked.
Tatenen
9-10-10 66/1 **
Unseated
last year, but he is not a National horse and is still waiting for a
3 mile Chase win as is out of form.
Treacle 12-10-09
33/1 ***
I
short-listed him last year but decided there were better bets. Now 12
and had just 2 runs this year. Did win last time, but doesn't look a
stayer in this.
Lost
Glory 8-10-08 66/1 **
Inexperienced
8 year old, off the track for 6 months and hasn't won a race worth at
least £17k. He is in form and the drier the ground the better.
Swing
Bill 12-10-08 66/1 ***
10th
last year, he's now 12 and still hasn't won a race bigger than £15k
in his career. Can't imagine he'll improve now.
Saint
Are 7-10-08 50/1 ***
I
didn't think he'd win the 3m Handicap Chase here last year and he
did. So he's already tucked me up big time. He's 7, so has it all to
prove, especially at this distance.
Chicago
Grey 10-10-07 14/1 *****
Perfect.
Though he was losing interest in his races in the last year but had a
good win in Ireland last time. Former winner of the 4 mile race at
Cheltenham 2 years ago, he was brough down last year at fence 5 while
carrying 10-13. 10-07 is a lovely weight.
Quiscover
Fontaine 9-10-07 50/1 **
Yet
to win over 3 miles and completely out of form. If you get this in
the sweepstake, buy another horse.
Rare
Bob 11-10-06 25/1 *****
Perfect
trendswise, but I'm not certain he will
get the trip. Brought down by State Of Play (with Chicago Grey) last
year. Bryan Cooper is gonna be a great jockey and that's a plus.
The
Rainbow Hunter 9-10-06 66/1 **
Consistent,
but only seems to run in small fields. This looks a little hot for
him and I don't think he's good enough over this distance. Place
chance at a price.
Becauseicouldntsee 10-10-06
66/1 ***
Has
a chance on his 2nd to Sunnyhillboy last year at
Cheltenham, before falling at the Canal Turn. Yet to win over fences
at 3 miles or more. Out of form but could be getting there afte good
5th at Cheltenham.
Harry
The Viking 8-10-06 50/1 **
Inexperienced
out of form chaser, who may win this in a couple of years, but form
of PP90 this season doesn't instill confidence.
Mr
Moonshine 9-10-05 80/1 **
No
win over the bigger obstacles and only ran 17 days ago after a busy
campaign. This looks to hot for him.
Mumbles
Head 12-10-04 150/1 **
12
year old thats never really been good enough. His form in the summer
was decent and he wouldn't mind the ground drying out.
Ninetieth
Minute 10-10-03 66/1 **
Not
as good over fences as he was over hurdles, and has yet to win over
the required 3 miles. Not good enough.
Auroras
Encore 11-10-03 80/1 ***
Not
really in form, but has been running in some hot handicaps. Has place
chances at a massive price if he can get round.
Tarquinius 10-10-02 100/1 **
Very
busy since the Autumn (11 races) and really not good enough at this
extreme distance.
Any
Currency 10-10-00 100/1 **
The
distance shouldn't be a problem, but whether he'll be at the sharp
end to trouble the judges is a different matter. Slow and steady and
wants better ground.
Major
Malarky 10-10-00 100/1 **
Another
plodder. Won't mind the distance but shouldn't be fast enough.
Soll
8-10-00 40/1 *
9th
in the Welsh National, He's very inexperienced. This may set him up
for next year, but he won't be winning this one
Viking
Blond 8-10-00 100/1 **
Another
who's just 8, but more experienced. A stayer in the making, this may
come too soon for him. Hasn't won for 18 months.
Reserves:
Pentiffic 10-10-00 100/1 **
Mortimers
Cross 12-10-00 250/1 **
Out
of the handicap:
Major
Malarkey (1lb), Soll (2lbs), Viking Blond (3lbs), Pentiffic (6lbs),
Mortimers Cross (8lbs)
Conclusions:
The
are 4 top rated horses. 2 are genuine stayers. TEAFORTHREE
(14/1) and CHICAGO GREY (14/1) have 4 mile winning form in the
book. They will be up there with a clear round. The other 2 are more
risky. Rare Bob (25/1) has no winning form on better than
soft, but has place form on good He could run into a place and is
considered. Joncol (50/1) has only raced once on ground better
than soft and is opposed. Ballabriggs (20/1) will love the
ground and if he's not too old at 12 could be the first to regain the
title for 36 years. At a massive price Auroras Encore (80/1)
could surprise a few people.
2
main bets. I hope I don't talk you out of the winner.
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