Scottish Grand National (Handicap Chase) – 4m 1/2f (Grade 3)

 Recently retired Merigo wins for the 2nd time.

Overview

2 weeks after we found a 66/1 winner of the Grand National in Auroras Encore we concentrate on the Scottish season finale at Ayr.

Auroras was a 5-star until I finalised my write up, when I found I'd included 2 weight-based stats and then tightened up a couple of bands to get rid of some definite non-winners. He was a very decent 3-star and we put him up as a lively outsider. We also had Teaforthree (3^rd) and Rare Bob (5^th). Oscar Time (4*) was 4^th @ 66/1 too.

Onto the Scottish version. Auroras Encore was an unlucky 2^nd last year in this but is now top weight after his Aintree heroics. Red Rum did the double some while ago and remains the last to do so. I don't expect Auroras Encore to follow up here.

The trends aren't as strong here as you would think for a 4m race, however there are plenty of things you need to to have achieved in my opinion to be successful in any distance handicap, especially on forecast heavy ground. Novice Beshabar won 2 years ago and confounded half of the trends. I doubt it will be repeated this season. Iris De Balme (66/1) won from 26lbs out of the handicap in 2008 but did achieve lots of the things you want in a probable winner.

10-year Trends

10/10 Aged between 8 and 11. Similar to the Grand National.

10/10 Ran within the last 57 days. Race fit please.

9/10 Top 6 in a handicap last time out, most at Cheltenham. Exception 2^nd in a Novice Chase.

9/10 Had won a Chase over 3 miles or more.

9/10 Had between 3 and 6 runs in the season. All had 3-7 runs.

9/10 Carried less than 10-10 in weight.

8/10 Officially Rated between 124 and 143.

8/10 Had between 10 and 24 Chases under their belt.

8/10 Had achieved a RP Rating of 137 or more over at least 3m1f.

8/10 Had won a Chase worth at least £15,000.

7/10 Had won a Class 2 Chase or better.

Contenders

Auroras Encore    16/1   ***

Looks like the handicapper has stopped him winning any more races. Aintree was his season and can't be backed here with confidence on bad ground. This will be his 9^th run of the season (7 since November)

Lion Na Bearnai   33/1   **

Irish National winner last season. So stamina not an issue, however he's only raced once this season (pulled-up) and is carrying too much weight.

Silver By Nature   33/1   **

Just 1 race in 2 years. Has long distance form on heavy that season, but too high in the weights and would take a lot to get him fit for this.

Our Mick    16/1   *

Still no win over 3 miles and is carrying too much weight. He's a 7yo with only 2 starts this season. Ran well at Cheltenham, but running well isn't winning.

Always Right    12/1   ****

Last seen winning at Kelso in a listed race, he was 3^rd in this 2 years ago. Older and wiser now and ticks many of the boxes a winner should, however I don't want my horses carrying 11-7 in heavy ground.

Rival D'Estruval    13/2f   ***

Favourite, but I don't want to be with a Novice Chaser with little experience of a big slog (fell in the 4m at Cheltenham), this high in the weights. His owners also had Merigo (2010 & 2012 winner)

Garleton   40/1   **

Too old, too high in the weights, etc. Never won at a level considered good enough to take this. 6^Th lasy year and will do well to match that.

Knockara Beau   25/1   ***

Pulled up last year, and there are too many slight doubts in his profile. Too high in the weights and is passed over.

Godsmejudge   10/1   **

There are worse 2-star horses around. He a Novice, but got a nice 3^rd in the 4m race at Cheltenham. But as a 7yo he's got it all to do to overcome his inexperience. Too high in the weights for me.

Rose Of The Moon   25/1   ***

Novice who hasn't achieved half what Godsmejudge has, yet is 1 star better off. Mainly due to the weight factor (only 10-13 plus another 3 off from his jockey) and he's a year older

Problema Tic   25/1   ***

Decent 4^th at Aintree, but most of his form is on good ground. Has won on soft but only over 2½m. Only a 7yo, his time may come in a year or two.

Tour Des Champs   33/1   **

The only 6 year old to have won since the race was first run at Ayr in 1966 was Earth Summit (1994) so he has it all to do. Its not as if he has everything else going for him either, so is easily overlooked.

Bradley   20/1   ***

I'm sure he's got a big race in him, but he keeps making too many mistakes. I don't like it that we haven't seen him since January, but there is little else to fault him on. His lack of race wins at this level is also counting against him, but he's almost a 4-star horse. Apprentice takes off a handy 7lbs as well.

Mister Marker   20/1   ***

Another with lots of little crosses in all the right boxes. However, as he's off the track a little too long (just 1 run in a year), is ok, but not ideal, weight-wise, and hasn't won at Class 2 or a race worth £15k. The odd one can be forgiven, but when they all add up, you get a horse that isn't ready to win this race.

Rigadin De Beauchene   20/1   *****

My first strong fancy. Smacks all the trends hard, but was pulled-up last time out, but he he did clobber 2 fences on the way round that and is easily forgiven that. Needs to step back up though.

Nuts N Bolts    16/1   **

Too young (7yo) and this Novice Chaser doesn't look a stayer just yet (just 2 chases at 3m1f). Looks out of his depth.

Big Occasion   8/1   ***

Another 6yo who should be overlooked. But he won the Midlands National over basically this trip on heavy so could be a big threat. Jockey takes off a useful 7lbs again. The race was only 5 weeks ago and it could well have left a mark on him. At 8/1 he's short enough to leave alone.

Relax   33/1   ***

Blundered at Cheltenham, so needs to brush up on his jumping. Doesn't look good enough at this distance and is overlooked.

Fill The Power   25/1   **

Never won on soft or worse nor over 3m or more. He's also 7. That is all.

Neptune Equester   16/1   *****

Hits all the major trends, but yet to win a Class 2 Chase. 3 runs this year and 2 wins, but they were over Hurdles and he flopped in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. Needs to step up again to win this.

Pentiffic   50/1   **

Just missed out on the Grand National by a place. Pulled-Up at Ascot the day after. Yet to prove he wants a marathon and is ignored.

Monsieur Cadou   16/1   ****

Only fails the minor trends, and has won a couple of races this season at 3m4f. Didn't seem to beat too much, however that isn't his fault and has place chances (or better).

Cool Operator   40/1   ***

Pulled-up in the Midlands National and just doesn't look the right sort of horse to win this.

Rebeccas Choice   20/1   ****

2^nd to Big Occasion in the Midlands National. That may have taken its toll, but that run came 4 weeks after another slog in February, so is a tough cookie. 7 runs this season isn't ideal and hasn't achieved much Class-wise or RPR-wise, but is foolish to ignore completely.

Lively Baron    33/1   *****

Steady sort who won't pull up many trees. I don't see the winner when I look at his profile, but the Scottish National throws up winners like this every so often. Worth taking a chance at the price, as his only 'blemish' is the Racing Post haven't rated him 137 over 3m1f or more (135 only). Lovely low weight and handles the ground over these distances.

Captain Americo   50/1   **

7lbs out of the handicap and hasn't won for 12 races. On the plus side is that he's consistent in marathons and could plod round into a place.

Conclusions

I keep changing my mind, but something has to win. Best to stick with the trends horses and RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (20/1 general, boylesports pay 5 places) looks to have a stronger look about him than LIVELY BARON (33/1, totesport, Betfred, William Hill) but that is factored into the price. Although Neptune Equester (16/1) is also a top-rated horse, his price is now a bit skinny and while he has some sort of form on the ground, his trainer thinks he's better on better ground. Of the 4-stars, Always Right is too high in the weights, but I won't put you off Monsieur Cadou (16/1 Coral, William HIll) or Rebeccas Choice (20/1, general, Boyle and PaddyPower paying 5 places) if you fancy them. 2 bets only, but maybe 2 more for the combintion tricast.