Grand
National Analysis
Neptune Collonges wins the closest National in history. Sunnyhillboy is back for more
A nose is all that separated a perfect
trends horse, Sunnyhillboy, from lots of backslapping and
self-congratulations. He didn't win. Neptune Collonges did. He
carried 11 stone 6lbs, the biggest since Red Rum and
we have to seriously consider the way the handicapper is rating the
horses. The top weighted horses are being let in off lenient marks to
even up the race... That is his job after all. I still don't want big
weights for my horses, but we have to consider them from now on.
The following trends are strong and should be adhered to.
The following trends are strong and should be adhered to.
Aged 8-12
No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (13yo) who won in 1923.
The actual sweet spot for Grand National winners is either 9 or 10 year olds. 8 year-olds haven't really developed the stamina reserves to win over 41/2 miles, and horses older than 10 are on the downgrade and whilst they have sufficient stamina, may lack the pace to go on and win.
Only one 8 year-old has won the race since 1992, Bindaree, 11 years ago.
Two 11 year olds - Red Marauder, in 2001, and Neptune Collonges, last year, have won since 1994.
Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995.
10 Year Trends
(won-placed-runners)
aged
6/7 0-0-29
aged
8 0-7-73
aged
9 3-10-104
aged
10 5-6-95
aged
11 1-7-71
aged
12+ 1-0-35
As
you can see, the sweet spot is still 9 or 10 years old. No youngster
has placed and only Amberleigh
House
has placed as a 12yo.
Winning form over at least 3 miles
Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 41/2 miles (ps this year it's 4m 31/2f).
Carrying less than 11st 6lbs
The best horse in the race will carry the biggest weight, but they don't often win the Grand National. It's a huge burden to lump nearly 12 stone around 41/2 miles and it takes it toll. Last year, Neptune Collonges managed it with 11-06. It's become easier to carry a big weight around thanks to some leniency by the handicapper.
Winning form over at least 3 miles
Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 41/2 miles (ps this year it's 4m 31/2f).
Carrying less than 11st 6lbs
The best horse in the race will carry the biggest weight, but they don't often win the Grand National. It's a huge burden to lump nearly 12 stone around 41/2 miles and it takes it toll. Last year, Neptune Collonges managed it with 11-06. It's become easier to carry a big weight around thanks to some leniency by the handicapper.
The
bottom weights are back to 10 stone and I still think this is a good
stat to adhere to. I'm still tempted to say that 11 stone is the
cut-off, but I'm only ruling out horses above that line if they've
failed other trends.
Grand National hero Red Rum
(twice) was the previous horse to carry more than 11-05 in the
National and win. Before that it was Sundew in 1957.
Officially Rated between 136-155
This trend will rule out many of the horses that the previous one does, but also catches out those really crap horses that used to run at the bottom of the handicap but now rarely get in the race, and can be used to dump these horses at the first declaration stage. Neptune Collonges was rated 157, but we are dumping the bottom weights this time.
Must have run within the previous 56 days
Was 49 days, but Neptune Collonges break was 7 days longer and lee-way can be give. I don't want anything with more than 70 days. I want race fit horses.
Rough Quest had a break of only
16 days in 1996.
Horses need to be race fit to win this
and horses start losing their edge after a long break, either
enforced or otherwise. We want a horse that is ready to race.
Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year.
Have run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, like Cappa Bleu, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording Colbert Station (5) the same.
Have won a chase worth at least £29,000
You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. Every winner in the last 10 years has won a Chase worth at least this amount of money. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Horses that have won a £17k-£28k Chase may be given a little le-way as Bindaree (2002) has just dropped off the end
Have raced between 3 and 6 times in the season
Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National. Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since has had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet.
Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year.
Have run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, like Cappa Bleu, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording Colbert Station (5) the same.
Have won a chase worth at least £29,000
You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. Every winner in the last 10 years has won a Chase worth at least this amount of money. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Horses that have won a £17k-£28k Chase may be given a little le-way as Bindaree (2002) has just dropped off the end
Have raced between 3 and 6 times in the season
Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National. Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since has had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet.
Officially Rated at least 138
Numbersixvalverde (under-the radar Irish raider) and Silver
Birch (injury problems) were rated 138. Horses lower probably
aren't good enough.
Conclusions:
Winning Profile
Aged 9-12
Won over more than 3 miles
Carrying less than 11-07
OR between 138-157
Last run between 20-56 days ago
Top 3 finish in his last 3 runs
9+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £17k to the winner
Between 3-6 runs that season
If you want to refine it further
Perfect Profile
Aged 9 or 10
Carrying less than 11-01
10+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £29k to the
winner
Between 4-6 runs that season
Good Luck
Between 4-6 runs that season
Good Luck
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