Grand National 2014 - Trends Analysed

Grand National Analysis

We had the winner last year, he got a mention in dispatches, even if he wasn't a 5 star. AURORAS ENCORE has since been retired through injury. A lot has been said about the new shaped fences and how the better horses will show their class. This didn't happen last year. The top 12 horses to finish all carried 11-03 or less (10 carried under 11 stone). So weight is still a big factor in this race.

The following trends are strong and should be adhered to.

Aged 8-12
No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (13yo) who won in 1923. Horses younger than 7 are now prevented from competing, they couldn't win anyway and need protecting from over-enthusiastic trainers and owners.

The last 2 winners were 11, and the last 9 winners were all aged between 9 and 11 years old. We can't rule out the 8 and 12 year olds, but they can't afford to miss too many trends.

Only one 8 year-old has won the race since 1992, Bindaree, in 2002.
Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995.

10 Year Trends (won-placed-runners)

aged 6/7  0-0-28

aged 8     0-7-71

aged 9     3-11-98

aged 10   4-5-99

aged 11   2-6-72

aged 12   1-1-32

aged 13+ 0-0-7

No horse outside the 8-12 age range has even placed in 10 years from 35 runners.


Winning form over at least 3 miles
Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 4m 31/2f).

To go a bit further, all of the previous 10 winners had won over 3 miles, 1 furlong and 9 of the last 10 winners had finished top 3 in a 3½ mile+  Chase, with Neptune Collonges (the exception) winning a 3¼ m Chase.

Last year the first 5 home has finished in the top 4 in a 'National' ie over 3m4f.


Carrying less than 11st 6lbs
The best horse in the race will carry the biggest weight, but they don't often win the Grand National. It's a huge burden to lump nearly 12 stone around 41/2 miles and it takes it toll.

Last year, only 1 horse got within 50 lengths on the winner that carried more than 11 stone.

The bottom weights are back to near 10 stone and I still think this is a good stat to adhere to. I'm still tempted to say that 11 stone is the cut-off, but I'm only ruling out horses above that line if they've failed other trends. A good line to take is to rule out horses that carry more than 14lbs more than the bottom weight.

Grand National hero Red Rum (twice) was the last horse previous to Neptune Collonges horse to carry more than 11-05 in the National and win and before that Sundew in 1957.

Officially Rated between 136-155
This trend will rule out many of the horses that the previous one does, but also catches out those really crap horses that used to run at the bottom of the handicap but now rarely get in the race, and can be used to dump these horses at the first declaration stage. Neptune Collonges was rated 157, but this stat dumps the bottom weights this time. This year there are unlikely to be any horses rated this low.


Must have run within the previous 56 days
Was 49 days, but Neptune Collonges was 7 days longer and leeway can be given. I don't want anything with more than 70 days. I want race fit horses.

Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996.

Horses need to be race fit to win this and horses start losing their edge after a long break, either enforced or otherwise. We want a horse that is ready to race and ready to win.


Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year. Of course Auroras Encore wasn't placed in his previous 7 races to throw that out of the window but he'd run well in some decent Graded races. His last form was the previous April with a quality 2^nd in the Scottish National.


Have run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, like Colbert Station and Mountainous, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording Rocky Creek (7) the same.


Have won a chase worth at least £29,000
You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. Every winner in the last 10 years has won a Chase worth at least this amount of money. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Horses that have won a £17k-£28k Chase may be given a little leeway as Bindaree (2002) has just dropped off the end


Have raced between 3 and 6 times in the season
Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National. Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since has had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet.


Conclusion:
Winning Profile
Aged 8-12
Won over more than 3 miles
Top 3 finish in a 3¼ mile Chase

Carrying less than 11-07
OR between 136-157
Last run between 20-56 days ago
9+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £17k to the winner
Between 3-6 runs that season

If you want to refine it further

Perfect Profile
Aged 9 to 11
Won a 3m1f Chase
Top 3 in a 3m4f+ Chase

Carrying less than 11-02
Last run between 20-56 days ago
10+ Chases

Won a race worth more than £29k to the winner
Between 4-6 runs that season

Good Luck