Grand National 2014 Runners

John Smith's Grand National Handicap Chase – Grade 2 – 4m 31/2f

Horse                Age-Wgt (st-lbs) Odds Winning Chance

Tidal Bay      13-11-10      14/1       ***

Would be a fairytale winner, I remember him winning the Arkle in 2008. Trouble is he's now 13 and carrying a welter-burden here. However he was a running on third in the Welsh National, under top weight, in December, so likely to be out the back early on here and could find trouble in running. Unseated 3 years ago, but if he weaves past those fallers, he could be running on again at the end.

Long Run       9-11-09      16/1      ***

Gold Cup (2011) and King George (2012) winner but lost his way this season and looks on the downgrade now. Liable to make a sizeable error or two as well. Will be carrying a big weight and this is a mile further than he's ever run before.

Hunt Ball      9-11-07       66/1       **

A true 2 ½ miler, who is too high in the weights and hasn't won a good enough race to justify carrying any money here.

Triolo D'Alene      7-11-06      20/1      ***

He won the Topham Chase over these fences last year (2m6f) and then won the Hennessy this season. He's 7 and too young and carrying too much weight, but could be a potential winner in the future.

Rocky Creek      8-11-05      18/1      *

Bridesmaid this year, losing big races to Triolo D'Alene and The Giant Bolster. Inexperienced and off the track for 10 weeks, and hasn't won a big race, is too high in the weights and no form past 3 miles 2 ½ furlongs. Not this year Rocky.

Quito De La Roque      10-11-01      40/1       ****

Form is pretty poor and doesn't look a National winner, however he passes most of the trends but no form over marathon trips.

Colbert Station      10-11-00      33/1      ***

Unseated last year, still fairly inexperienced, but 9 runs isn't so bad (cut off is 10). But looks like 3 miles is his limit and out of form as he can't jump. Leave alone.

Walkon      9-11-00     50/1      **

Doesn't look a national horse to me, stamina-wise, but decent 2^nd to Al Ferof in 2012 Hennessy in a bog, suggests that he could surprise. Pulled up in last years Scottish National, but has form over these fences and maybe the shorter distance is where he should be aimed.

Balthazar King      10-10-13     20/1       *****

Our first perfect horse, won all 3 cross country races at Cheltenham this season. The last was just 24 days ago and has this come too soon. Last year he was 15^th without a prep run. Doesn't want the rain.

Wayward Prince      10-10-13      66/1      ****

Looks short of class and has no experience of marathon trips, hard to fancy with no win for 16 months, but passes everything else.

Mr Moonshine      10-10-12      50/1      ***

Yet to win over 3 miles or more and doesn't look good enough to win this.

Teaforthree     10-10-12       8/1fav      *****

Favourite, and with a decent weight, should have a big chance. I'm worried that he didn't last out after the last fence last year and I expect the same to happen again. Will probably get a place.

Across The Bay      10-10-11      50/1      *****

He only fails the lack of a big race win stat (£20k is acceptable). 14^th last year but a year older and wiser. Unseated last time and I don't like that in my national horses. Would love some rain.

Double Seven       8-10-11      14/1      ****

A little young (8yo), but his trainer knows how to win the race (Numbersixvalverde in 2006). Fits most of the trends but no form past 3 miles is a big worry. Form on soft, but better on good ground.

Battle Group      9-10-10      50/1       ***

Loves Aintree (won twice in 3 days at last years festival) and loves good ground, however doesn't want to race any more and has to be left alone. No form past 3 miles and off the track since he barely started in December.

Buckers Bridge       8-10-10       66/1      ***

No 3 mile win yet or place form at a trip and no racing on better than good/soft. He's a little young at 8 and hasn't won a big race yet. Avoid.

Lion Na Bearnai      12-10-10      33/1      *****

12 year old. Shock winner of the Irish National in 2012 but pulled-up in the Scottish version last April. Passes everything else and could be a player in the mud but more miss than hit even when he was younger.

Prince De Beauchene      11-10-10      20/1     ***

Another 3 miler who is out of form, been off the track for 79 days now.

Monbeg Dude      9-10-09       12/1      *****

Winner of the 2012 Welsh National and had some decent results in the last 2 years, but put in his place by Night In Milan in the Grimthorpe Chase last time. My worry is he's a hold-up horse who doesn't jump great, so will need to get into a good rhythm early and avoid some fallers on the way. If he does that he'll be creeping closer and closer by the 2^nd last. Loves any ground.

Big Shu      9-10-08       25/1      *****

3^rd in the Cross County at Cheltenham (won in 2013). 2 seasonal runs aren't ideal, but passes everything else. He'll have a new jockey for this race which isn't ideal. No form on faster ground so rain please.

Burton Port      10-10-08      20/1       *****

Not the best 5 star horse that others are, and little experience at marathon trips. Can't see him placing, but....

Our Father      8-10-08      66/1      **

An '8' year old with only 6 Chase starts. He's actually not yet reached his 8^th birthday. Too inexperienced on many counts and out of form on ground he's unproven on.

Mountainous        9-10-07      40/1  *****

Won the Welsh National. Not worried about 9 chase starts or that he's been off for 63 days. Would love the rain to come but difficult for a horse to win 2 nationals in a season.

The Rainbow Hunter       10-10-07      33/1      ****

Winner of the Skybet Chase last time. That was 70 days ago, which is a little long away. I always thought he'd win a decent staying handicap but this could be a step too far. Unseated last year after only 8 fences.

Vintage Star      8-10-07      50/1      ****

Youngster (not yet 8yo) who hasn't too much experience at a trip although he was a creditable 6^th in the Welsh National. Fell last time at Cheltenham, and currently has won a valuable chase yet.

Chance Du Roy      10-10-06      33/1       ****

9^th in last years Topham after a creditable 3^rd the year before, so has experience of these fences. Little experience past 3 miles, but has place chances. Goes on any ground, but you'd imagine the faster the better here.

Hawkes Point      9-10-06       40/1       ***

Inexperienced (7 chases) but excellent place in the Welsh National. Hasn't won that decent Chase yet but all his form in on bottomless ground. How about next year?

Kruzhlinin      7-10-06      100/1      ***

Too young for this, no winning experience past 3 miles nor a win at a decent level. And little experience of big fields. No chance.

Pineau De Re      11-10-06      20/1     ****

Only think he really fails is the lack of a big chase win. Has a chance and goes on any ground.

Golan Way      10-10-05     66/1     ****

Another monkey, who you couldn't trust with stolen money to actually start, but has been better this season. Theoretically only 1 run in 16 months (fell after 2, other) and not won at a good enough level yet, surely he can't win.

Twirling Magnet     8-10-05     100/1      ****

Hasn't won at the required level yet and has plenty of time as he's just 8. Little form past the bare 3 miles either.

Vesper Bell     8-10-05     66/1      **

Decent staying form on heavy ground in Ireland, but this almost 8 year old (born 17^th Apr) is a little inexperienced and has been off the track for 72 days now. No recent form with only finish a poor 9^th last time and no form on ground faster than soft..

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The Package       11-10-04       20/1      ****

Just 1 completion in 16 months (good 3^rd at Cheltenham). Unseated 2 years ago, place chance at best here. Cheltenham form franked today with the 1st and 2nd both winning.

Raz De Maree     9-10-03      50/1       *****

Ran only 19 days ago. Won a Cork National in 2012, but all form in testing conditions, difficult to assess and his 3^rd last time was in a crappy 5 runner race, form P0P before that suggest he may be out classed here.

Rose Of The Moon      9-10-03     50/1     **

Inexperienced chaser who hasn't done too much so far. Poor run in the Becher Chase, here and been off for 74 days now. Not this year.

Shakalakaboomboom     10-10-03      33/1     ***

Great run 2 years ago, before running out of puff in the home turn. Still hasn't won that big chase or any decent form over a marathon trip, and no form at all this year. He's been trained for the race and is 2 years older and wiser this time around or is that 2 years slower. Can't imagine rain will help his cause.

Alvarado     9-10-02     33/1     *****

Can you forgive the fact that he's been off for 3 months when pulled up? If you can he has a good chance. Won a good stayers handicap in the Autumn and has form on all grounds although good would probably be better.

Last Time D'Albain      10-10-02     50/1     *

Has course experience after a 3^rd in last years Topham, but never run past 2m6f before!! Was staying on but difficult to imagine another 2 miles from him. Fails tons of the trends, and only ran 2 weeks ago. Ignore

One In A Milan     9-10-02     66/1      **

Inexperienced chaser with no winning form passed 3 miles basically not good enough and out of form.

Swing Bill      13-10-1      80/1      **

An excellent 6^th last year, but he's now 13 and he wont be winning this year. Still fails the Valuable chase stat, and a place at 3 ½ miles and isn't any real form, however was 5^th over the fences in the Becher Chase last December.

Conclusions:

This looks like 2 nationals in one. One set of runners wants the rain to stay away and the ground to be good/soft (good in places) and the other set wants plenty of rain and it to be soft to see their true running, at the moment it is the former so that's where we'll start.

Perfect Horses:

Teaforthree (8/1fav) is a worthy favourite, but is far too short now. I'm a big worried that he won't truly stay like last year and he'll finish 3^rd or 4^th. Monbeg Dude (12/1) is a bit in and out and with Zara Phillips schooling him he'll probably start favourite. My main worry is that he'll have to

negotiate 39 horses to win and that's IF he does jump well, no value in the price. Balthazar King (20/1) doesn't want any rain to get into the ground, not too much anyway, he won well at Chetlenham and as long as that didn't take too much out of him he should run a good race and a decent price.

Others to consider:

Across The Bay (50/1) has a good chance if it rains (0/10 on G/S or faster), blundered last time but at 50/1 he's value. Ran well until 4 out last year when blundering then fading.

Lion Na Bearnai (33/1) is a little old for my liking and is more miss than hit nowadays.

Big Shu (25/1) lacks experience of the fences, but will get the trip. In good form just behind Balthazar King, a little rain welcome.

Burton Port (20/1) doesn't look a true National horse to me, but he was just short of top quality once.

Mountainous (40/1) Hard to see him doing 2 Nationals in a season. He needs the rain and is a little inexperienced, but the Welsh National was a shock too.

Chance Du Roy (33/1) Won over the fences in December, this could be a little too far but has a chance on good ground.

Raz De Maree (50/1) Badly out of form, so have to pass on him even if he fits the trends.

Alvarado (40/1) Off the track a little too long for my liking but will get the trip on good ground.

Other thoughts:

I'd love Tidal Bay (14/1) and Long Run (14/1) to run well, don't think they'll win but stranger things have happened and these are 2 classy stalwarts. Tidal Bay could well be running on at the end and doesn't care about the ground. Long Run could be anything, no form over trip or fences but on his day was a Gold Cup and King George winner. Hawkes Point (40/1) shouldn't really be considered, but if it was a bog on saturday, he'd love it and he couldn't be ruled out.

Good (G/S in places) Grand National

BALTHAZAR KING (20/1)

CHANCE DU ROY (33/1)

ALVARADO (40/1, William Hill, betbright, 33/1 generally available)

Soft Grand National

ACROSS THE BAY (50/1)

BIG SHU (25/1)

MOUNTAINOUS (40/1)

HAWKES POINT (40/1)

The rain is forecast from 10am tomorrow until the evening, so I expect it to be a right old slog and the soft horses are favoured, however the write-up is written on the current Good-Soft ground.

So that's it, I hope we have a good run for our money, lets hope for an exciting, but safe Grand national and this year I want the forecast (1^st and 3^rd last year)

Offers:

www.bet365.com not only give you a free bet if you get the winner (their 4/1+ tv offer), but they are giving half your stake back on any each-way bets (until noon on saturday up to £125 total). This is for existing customers only.

They also will be going 5 places. Everyone are 5 places (except totesport, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill – 4 places)

www.betvictor.com (boo!!!) offer 6 places as do Betfred and newbies www.betbright.com.

Totepsort & Betfred are the same company btw – No I don't get the disparity either.

Make sure you take a price on the high street, Paddy Power go 5 places, but their odds aren't as good, swings and roundabouts and all that.