JCB
Triumph Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 1f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
raced within the last 55 days.
10/10 Had
won at least 50% of their hurdle races.
10/10 Were
rated within 11lbs of the RPR top rated.
10/10 Had
an OR of 84+ on the flat, or did not race on the flat.
9/10 Had
raced over hurdles at least twice.
9/10 Had
an Adjusted RPR of at least 150.
8/10 Were
from a flat Group 1 sire.
8/10 Made
their hurdles début after November 10th.
7/10 Had
won last time out.
Additionally
20
of the last 25 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles.
18
of the last 22 winners had won last time out.
18
of the last 22 winners had won at least twice over hurdles.
Only
1 winner was rated lower than 80 on the flat since 1996.
9
of the last 11 winners (since the introduction of the Fred Winter)
came from the first 4 in the betting.
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 3-4-14
Paul
Nicholls 2-2-15
Alan
King 1-4-13
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-1-14
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.1
stars
Big
McIntosh 100/1
Clan
Des Obeaux 16/1
Connetable 14/1
Consul
De Thaix 33/1
Footpad 9/1
Frodon 25/1
Gibralfaro 25/1
Ivanovich
Gorbatov 11/2
Leoncavallo 22/1
Sceau
Royal 7/1
Tommy
Silver 20/1
Who
Dares Wins 12/1
Zubayr 9/2fav
Apple's
Jade 16/1
Let's
Dance 14/1
Conclusions
Wiith
the drying ground, Ivanovich Gorbatov (11/2), the top rated
flat horse in the field while not being perfect on the trends, would
be a likely winner, but he’s hardly value. Sceau Royal has
had 7 runs, more than most, but is proven on the ground and 8/1 looks
pretty good. Zubayr (9/2jf) has had 1 run and what an
excellent one it was, comparisons with Zarkandar (also won on debut
in the Adonis Hurdle for Paul Nicholls). Footpad (9/1)looked
superb last time beating Let’s Dance and Ivan Gorbatov
but that was on heavy and he is unproven on ground this fast.
With it possibly being about the ground, the only ones who’ve run
on something this firm are Zubayr, Ivanovich Gorbatov
and Sceau Royal. Take your pick.
Vincent
O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3 – 2m 1f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
between 4 and 14 hurdle races.
10/10 Were
rated between 131 and 139 by the handicapper.
10/10 Had
ran in a handicap.
9/10 Had
achieved a RPR of 136 or more on a Left-Handed course. The last 7
winners, 140+.
9/10 Had
finished in the top 4 in either of their last 2 starts.
9/10 Had
carried less than 11-01
9/10 Had
at least 4 runs in the season. Exception ran 3 times and last year
winner refused to start 6 days earlier after false start on 4th
run.
9/10 Had
raced within the last 55 days.
8/10 Were
aged either 5 or 6.
7/10 Were
top 2 in at least 40% of their seasonal hurdles runs.
Additionally
51
of the last 54 winners had carried less than 11-03.
The
last 21 winners had handicap experience. (Thumbs Up in 1993
the last not to)
19
of the last 22 winners has raced at least 4 times in the season.
18
of the last 21 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 4-9-62
6yo 4-5-80
7yo 0-12-63
8yo 1-1-29
9yo 1-1-19
10yo 0-1-9
11yo 0-0-3
12yo 0-1-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-5-18
Paul
Nicholls 3-3-16
Philip
Hobbs 0-5-15
Alan
King 0-2-8
Jonjo
O’Neill 0-2-10
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.1
stars
Cheltenian 33/1
Zamdy
Man 50/1
Dicosimo 20/1
Devilment 33/1
Henry
Higgins 20/1
Great
Field 8/1
All
Yours 12/1
Blue
Hell 10/1
Fethard
Player 33/1
Some
Plan 25/1
Bentelimar 33/1
Sizing
Tennessee 33/1
Hawk
High 33/1
Ivan
Grozny 40/1
Sternrubin 25/1
Starchitect 12/1
Mad
Jack Mytton 20/1
Draco 50/1
Cardinal
Walter 25/1
Francis
Of Assisi 40/1
John
Constable 12/1
Modus 14/1
Wait
For Me 12/1
Kayf
Blanco 40/1
Superb
Story 7/1fav
Montbazon 28/1
Conclusions
They
go at such a breakneck speed round here, that it pays to sit off the
speed and with a lot of the horses fairly close in the handicap, and
the trends, that is a nice angle to use to thin the field. With the
good ground, we can this the field even further. Perfect trends horse
MODUS (14/1, bet 365 5 places) is our first bet, will love the
ground and will be held-up. At slightly bigger prices are HENRY
HIGGINS (22/1, skybet, 5places) and MAD JACK MYTTON (25/1,
bet365, 5places). That will do here. 2 at massive prices that still
fit the bill are Devilment (40/1) and Draco (50/1), but
the first 3 are enough in this.
Albert
Bartlett (Spa) Novices' Hurdle – Grade 1 – 3m
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
raced over hurdles at least 3 times.
10/10 Hadn't
run for 27 days or more. Last 9 winners had also run within the last
68 days.
10/10 Were
aged between 5 and 7.
9/10 Had
an Adjusted RPR of 146 or more.
9/10 Were
rated within 12lbs or the RP Top Rated
8/10 Had
finished top 2 in a Grade 2 Hurdle last time. 2 exceptions were 3rd
and 4th.
8/10 Had
won at 2m 5f or more. (Exceptions won a 3m PTP and 2m4f.)
8/10 Had
won a Graded Hurdle.
8/10 Were
Irish-bred.
6/10 Had
run at Cheltenham during the season. 5 had won. 3 exceptions were
Irish-trained.
Additionally
8
of the 11 winners started in the top 5 in the betting.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-5-38
6yo 5-8-81
7yo 4-4-43
8yo 0-3-17
9yo 0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Rebecca
Curtis 1-0-6
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-4-18
Colin
Tizzard 0-1-5
Contenders
–
10
year trends winner
averaged 4.4
stars
Allysson
Monterg 40/1
Atlantic
Gold 150/1
Aurillac 40/1
Bachasson 25/1
Balko
Des Flos 25/1
Barters
Hill 9/2
Bleu
Et Rouge 10/1
Champers
On Ice 33/1
Definite
Outcome 33/1
Fagan 33/1
Gangster 7/1
Hit
The Highway 66/1
Jonniesofa 40/1
Long
Dog 8/1
Open
Eagle 25/1
Shantou
Village 4/1fav
Solstice
Star 66/1
Unowhatimeanharry 14/1
Up
For Review 16/1
West
Approach 100/1
Conclusions
4
against the field who will like the good ground are all short in the
market. I really didn’t like the manner of Barters Hill’s
win at Doncaster, struggling to beat inferior opposition. I was
extremely taken with Shantou Village’s start to the season
on good ground here was excellent, then he ran into Yanworth on heavy
and was beaten 7 lengths, but was in turn thrashing Champers On
Ice again. Gangster
has been well backed in the last week, easily winning his last race,
stepping up to 3 miles. Finally its Long Dog
(Ricci/Mullins/Walsh) who has beaten everything that’s been put in
front of him. Thought he’d have gone for the Neptune Hurdle, but I
guess Walsh would have ridden Yorkhill, so this may not be exactly
the trip they wanted, as he’s won his last 2 races at 2 miles and
before that 2m5f. Take your pick, feels like Shantou
Village and Gangster
for me.
Timico
Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase – Grade 1 – 3m 21/2f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
a Grade 1 Chase win under their belt. 8 at 3 miles or more
10/10 Were
aged between 6 and 9 years old.
9/10 Had
raced between 2 and 5 times that season.
9/10 Had
raced over fences less than 11 times. [Kauto Star reclaimed his crown
on 20 Chases]
8/10 Had
an Adjusted RPR of 173+ for this race.
8/10 Had
recorded a seasonal Graded Chase win.
8/10 Were
rated within 10lbs
of the RP Top
Rated.
8/10 Had
won a chase over 3 miles or more. [plus Imperial Commander won a
point-to-point.]
7/10 Had
been placed at a previous festival.
7/10 Had
won last time out. Exceptions 2nd, 5th and 6th
in a Grade 1.
Additionally
24
of the last 28 winners were top 4 last time
23
of the last 25 winners had raced at least twice that season.
20
of the last 22 winners were aged 7 to 9.
The
last 16 winners had all won a Grade 1 Chase.
15
of the last 17 winners had won that season.
14
of the last 15 winners were all from the front 3 in the betting.
14
of the last 16 winners had an OR of 166 or more.
14
of the last 18 winners were placed at a previous festival.
13
of the last 15 winners had finished top 2 last time.
11
of the last 14 winners had been off for 62 days or less.
11
of the last 15 winners had finished top two at a festival
12
of the last 24 winners were second season chasers.
81
of the last 83 horses beaten in the race, were beaten again. [only
Kauto Star and See More Business (c/o)]
No
horse aged 11 or more has won since 1969.
Only
3 horses have won with less than 6 Chase starts since 1963.
No
winner has run on heavy ground in his winning season
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 1-1-4
7yo 2-5-22
8yo 4-5-44
9yo 3-3-35
10yo 0-4-28
11yo 0-2-9
12yo 0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-4-9
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.4
stars
Carlingford
Lough 20/1
Wouldn’t
have even been considered until winning the Irish Gold Cup last time
with a huge last to first victory. Could pick up place prize money if
he does the same today.
Cue
Card 4/1
Breathing
op has transformed him from doubtful stayer into King George Chase
winner. Does he stay 3m21/2f?
Is he too old now? Possibly. I love the horse and would love him to
win.
Djakadam 7/2
2
falls here at Cheltenham, but was a staying on 2nd in last
years renewal. They say you can’t come back from losing a Gold Cup
to win one. The last first time winner to win after being beaten was
The Fellow in 1994. (See More Business was carried out by
another horse the year before in 1998). I’m against him, but he
still has a chance.
Don
Cossack 3/1fav
Brian
Cooper has chosen him over Don Poli,
and the drying ground will suit him. He’s the highest rated chaser
in training, however he fell while about to challenge in the King
George, he may have won, or maybe not. His record is superb, apart
from at Cheltenham. He fell in the RSA 2 years ago and was a
disappointing 3rd
in the RSA Chase in 2015.
Don
Poli 4/1
Loves
Cheltenham, and stays all day, could stay up the hill past tying up
favourites. Runs too lazily for some, but always finds enough to get
his head in front. Ground is fine for him despite what the papers may
say. Only blip in his career was at Punchestown, but he’d done
plenty that season.
Irish
Cavalier 100/1
Basically
an out of form horse too high in the handicap to run in those, likely
to be pulled up.
O'Faolains
Boy 66/1
Won
the RSA 2 years ago, has been off with injuries since, not really
been pulling up trees since. Just a watching brief.
On
His Own 66/1
Could
have been awarded the race 2 years ago, likely to lead up with Smad
Place, but surely his chance,
aged 12, has now gone.
Road
To Riches non runner
Smad
Place 10/1
Breathing
operation and front-running tactics have revitalised him, surely
he’ll do that again, but he’s never won a Grade 1 Chase and that
a negative.
Conclusions
Difficult
to split the top 4 in the market, should be a classic, I’d be happy
for any of them to win.
St
James' Place Foxhunter
Chase Challenge Cup
(Amateur Riders)
– Class 2 - 3m 21/2f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
won over 3 miles or more.
10/10 Were
aged between 7 and 10.
10/10 Had
between 4 and 14 Chases (Cappa Bleu had 4 Point-to-Points)
10/10 Had
not achieved an OR of 141 or more in their career.
9/10 Had
achieved a rating of 130+ over fences.
8/10 Top
3 last time out.
8/10 Started
their career in either Point-to-Points or Hunter Chases.
7/10 Had
run within the last 35 days. 20-34 in fact. The 3 exceptions off for
at least 252 days.
Additionally
21
of the last 22 winners had won under rules.
23
of the last 25 winners were aged 10 or less. 9 of the last 11 winners
were aged 7-9 years old.
24
of the last 27 winners started their career in Point to Points or
Hunter Chases.
23
of the last 30 winners had won last time.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 0-0-3
7yo 2-0-18
8yo 2-5-42
9yo 4-6-42
10yo 2-4-44
11yo 0-4-44
12yo 0-1-31
13yo 0-0-10
14yo 0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Enda
Bolger (Ire) 1-1-3
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 1-0-2
Jonjo
O’Neill 1-0-5
Warren
Greatrex 0-1-2
Colin
McBratney (Ire) 0-1-2
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.4
stars
Alskamatic 40/1
Aupcharlie 10/1
Brackloon
High 66/1
Camden 66/1
Cave
Hunter 66/1
Chapoturgeon 33/1
Current
Event 25/1
Current
Exchange 40/1
Dark
Lover 25/1
Impact
Area 33/1
Indiana
Bay 50/1
It
Came To Pass 12/1
Major
Malarkey 50/1
Marito 10/1
Mendip
Express 10/1
Mr
Mercurial 20/1
Need
To Know 50/1
On
The Fringe 11/4fav
Pacha
Du Polder 20/1
Paint
The Clouds 6/1
Pena
Dorada 66/1
Richmond 50/1
Temple
Grandin 100/1
Twirling
Magnet 25/1
Conclusions
A
race that may have more headlines than the Gold Cup 40 minutes
previously, thanks to Victoria Pendleton’s ride on Pacha Du
Polder, I hope she gets round,
the horse isn’t a 3 miler though and can be comfortably left alone.
Favourite, On The Fringe
won last year, but being a year older, this maybe a step to far as
he’s now 11. Paint The Clouds
is also 11 and was 3rd
last year, he should give it a good run again, but is likely to find
another one too good.
The
perfect trends horse is Camden,
but his Best RPR would make him the worst rated winner since Cappa
Bleu in 2009. (he was a pure pointing horse at the time). CURRENT
EVENT (20/1, bet365, 4 places)
has had more that the usual chases in his career (19), but the ground
will suit him and is a solid each way bet with 4 places. Dark
Lover (25/1) is just the wrong
age (11yo) to win but will like the ground a lot better than some.
Martin
Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle – Class 2 - 2m 41/2f
7-Year
Trends
7/7 Were
aged either 5 or 6.
7/7 Were
officially rated between 133 and 143.
7/7 had
achieved an RPR of at least 136.
7/7 had
less than 14 hurdles starts.
7/7 Were
1st/2nd season hurdlers.
7/7 Had
run within the last 52 days.
7/7 Carried
a weight within 10lbs of the bottom weight.
Additionally
21
of the 28 horses in the top 4 were 1st/2nd season
hurdlers.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo 0-1-1
5yo 2-4-39
6yo 5-8-54
7yo 0-6-36
8yo 0-1-18
9yo 0-0-8
10yo 0-0-5
12yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-2-8
Paul
Nicholls 1-4-12
Nicky
Henderson 1-4-18
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-2-4
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-1-4
Contenders
–
7-year
trends winner averaged
5.0
stars
Handiwork 100/1
Squouateur 4/1fav
Bivouac 28/1
Zulu
Oscar 20/1
Tully
East 33/1
Work
In Progress 25/1
Label
Des Obeaux 20/1
Buiseness
Sivola 40/1
Childrens
List 12/1
Qualando 10/1
Ibis
Du Rheu 16/1
Whiteout 28/1
Westend
Star 16/1
Mr
Mix 16/1
Laurium 25/1
Flying
Angel (5x) 14/1
Roadie
Joe 66/1
Matorico 33/1
Nabucco 33/1
Jetstream
Jack 16/1
Sky
Khan 66/1
Montdragon 16/1
Goodwood
Mirage 33/1
Urano 33/1
Conclusions
The
truncatction of the handicap makes the weights fairly worthless with
just 7lbs between to field, but these conditional jockeys often have
gone off too fast to win and horses come off the pace to scoop the
prize. SQUOUATEUR (4/1fav,
general) ticks all the boxes, likes the ground and won’t be at the
front of the pack.. Qualando (10/1)
won the Fred Winter last year (and I shamefully ignored him at a big
price). He is exactly the same type who is worth putting on the
placepot and your forecasts. Willie Mullins has won 3 of the 7
renewals from only 8 runners (and 2 places). The best of his bunch
could be CHILDRENS LIST (12/1,
5pl, totesport/betfred). He’s been backed in the evening and could
be much shorter by the start of the race.
Johnny
Henderson Grand Annual Chase – Grade 3 – 2m 1/2f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
won over 2 miles 1 furlong or more.
9/10 Had
raced less than 13 times over fences.
9/10 Were
aged between 6 and 9 years old.
9/10 Had
raced within the last 54 days.
9/10 Fonished
in the top 3 in one of their last 2 completed races.
8/10 Carried
less than 11-00.
8/10 Had
raced at a previous festival.
8/10 Hadn’t
won this season.
8/10 Were
officially rated between 129 and 143.
7/10 Had
run less than 5 times since August.
Additionally
16
of the last 17 winners had raced less than 13 times over fences.
15
of the last 16 winners were aged 10 or less.
14
of the last 16 winners had carried under 11-00 (incl claimers)
22
of the last 25 winners had raced within 45 days.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 0-3-5
6yo 1-3-27
7yo 2-8-44
8yo 4-6-58
9yo 2-4-40
10yo 1-2-26
11yo 0-2-10
12yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 2-6-31
Michael
Scudamore 1-1-2
Arthur
Moore (Ire) 1-1-4
Paul
Nicholls 1-1-16
Jonjo
O’Neill 0-2-5
Venetia
Williams 0-1-9
Main
Contenders–
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.3
stars
Arthur’s
Oak 20/1
Savello 25/1
Bright
New Dawn 20/1
Dunraven
Storm 40/1
Croco
Bay 20/1
Dresden 33/1
Velvet
Maker 12/1
Rock
The World 11/1
Sizing
Codelco 16/1
Bold
Henry 25/1
Next
Sensation 9/1fav
Eastlake 14/1
Red
Spinner 25/1
The
Saint James 16/1
Surf
And Turf 66/1
Germany
Calling 33/1
Solar
Impulse 33/1
Workbench 33/1
Gardefort 33/1
Chris
Pea Green 20/1
Lough
Kent 16/1
Pearls
Legend 25/1
Raven’s
Tower 25/1
Dandridge 12/1
Conclusions
CHRIS
PEA GREEN (20/1) is the perfect
trends horse and also is happy on good ground. Next
Sensation (9/1fav) is a year
too old but must still be respected. Its worth having a saving
each-way bet on DANDRIDGE
(12/1, 5pl, Bet365) and possibly Gardefort
(33/1, 5pl Bet365, but 50/1 with Skybet/betway, 4 places) if we can
get 40/1 with bet365.
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