SKYBET
SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE
2
Miles 87 Yards, Grade 1 Novice Hurdle
Overview
When
the enigmatic (to say the least) Labaik won last year he
busted a load of the trends. But on reflection, when taking out his
refusals to race, he actually hit all but two of them. So if you
waited until he'd jumped off properly you might have got on at 25/1
in running and looked smug for the rest of the day.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.2 stars
2017
** Labaik (25/1)
2016
***** Altior (4/1)
2015
***** Douvan (2/1 fav)
2014
***** Vautour (7/2 jt fav)
2013
***** Champagne Fever (5/1)
2012
***** Cinders And Ashes (10/1)
2011
**** Al Ferof (10/1)
2010
**** Menorah (12/1)
2009
***** Go Native (12/1)
2008
** Captain Cee Bee (17/2)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Had won over 2 miles.
9/10
Had won at least 50% of their hurdles. [Labaik,
last year, won both hurdles he actually started, refusing to start
properly in the other 3]
9/10
Had run between 4 and 5 times over hurdles. The last 9 winners.
9/10
Had run less than 11 times in total in their career. [Labaik
had
15, but refused to start in 6 of the last 8, flat and jumps]
9/10
Had achieved an Adjusted Racing Post Rating (RPR) of at least 146.
[Ebazayan,
only 121 in 2007]. All had an Official Rating (OR) of 139+ or hadn't
yet achieved a rating.
9/10
Were aged 5 or 6. [Captain
Cee Bee was
aged 7 in 2008]
8/10
Had won last time out (LTO). [Menorah,
2nd in 2010 and Labaik
(RR),
but won his last 'race']
8/10
Had run within the last 59 days. [Exceptions 80 and 115 days]
8/10
Were rated within 10lbs of the Top A.RPR.
8/10
Were not flat-bred horses.
7/10
Had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Hurdle. 6 of the last 7 winners had
achieved this. [2 exceptions had not run in one. One winning a Class
2 Hurdle and the other, an Irish Maiden Hurdle. Labaik
won
a Grade 3, and refused in 2 Grade 1&2 races]
Additionally
Only
one 4-year old has won in the last 43 years.[Hors La Loi III in
1999]
39
of the last 43 winners were aged 5 or 6.
21
of the last 23 winners had run within the last 68 days. 18 of the
last 23 winners had run within the last 45 days.
18
of the last 21 winners had won last time.
12
of the last 14 winners had run in 4 or more hurdles races.
Flown
(blinkered) in 1992, was the last horse to win with headgear. 34
horses beaten. He’s also the last horse to win after just one
hurdle run.
Ages
(Win-Place-Runs)
4yo
0-1-4
5yo
4-12-80
6yo
5-6-59
7yo
1-1-17
8yo
0-0-3
9yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Win-Place-Runs)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-3-25
Nicky
Henderson 1-9-20
Philip
Hobbs 1-1-7
Contenders
*** Claimantakinforgan (14/1)
Hasn't kicked on from a Grade 2 win in December and was pretty disapponting last time out. Should find a few too good although the ground will be fine.
** Debuchet (50/1)
Below average start over hurdles, and has to be passed over.
***** First Flow (12/1)
3 from 3 over hurdles and on bad ground as well, winner of a Grade 2 Trial on his last start, but has he beaten anything.
***** Getabird (7/4fav)
The Mullins/Walsh/Ricci hotpot. Impressive and 2 from 2. Has stamina after a debut hurdles win over 2m4 on heavy. Ran out in a point-to-point on only start going left handed. I'd prefer him to have more than 2 starts.
Hasn't kicked on from a Grade 2 win in December and was pretty disapponting last time out. Should find a few too good although the ground will be fine.
** Debuchet (50/1)
Below average start over hurdles, and has to be passed over.
***** First Flow (12/1)
3 from 3 over hurdles and on bad ground as well, winner of a Grade 2 Trial on his last start, but has he beaten anything.
***** Getabird (7/4fav)
The Mullins/Walsh/Ricci hotpot. Impressive and 2 from 2. Has stamina after a debut hurdles win over 2m4 on heavy. Ran out in a point-to-point on only start going left handed. I'd prefer him to have more than 2 starts.
* Golden Jeffrey (200/1)
No-hoper with no chance.
***** Kalashnikov (9/2)
Winner of the Betfair Hurdle last time out. He was off the bridle half way round but finished impressively on soft ground. Trainer says he prefers better ground and that could be a worry if it comes up heavy after he was beaten by Summerhill Boy on heavy the run before.
** Lostintranslation (50/1)
Well beaten by First Flow last time. Was fancied that day and could out-run his odds, but has to be ignored as a bet.
** Mengli Khan (12/1)
Put in his place by Getabird by 9 lengths last time. Is a Grade 1 winner in a key trial for this, but inexplicably ran through the fence-wing in between times. Should be better than a two star but is marked down with plenty of flat/hurdles run under his belt.
*** Paloma Blue (14/1)
Seems to be fancied by some of the industry 'experts', but just seems to be short of the class that wins this on what he's shown.
* Saxo Jack (250/1)
Move on, nothing to see here.
*** Sharjah (20/1)
Looked good before falling in a Grade 1, before being put in his place last time. Has winning form in heavy ground.
* Shoal Bay (100/1)
No good enough to win this.
No-hoper with no chance.
***** Kalashnikov (9/2)
Winner of the Betfair Hurdle last time out. He was off the bridle half way round but finished impressively on soft ground. Trainer says he prefers better ground and that could be a worry if it comes up heavy after he was beaten by Summerhill Boy on heavy the run before.
** Lostintranslation (50/1)
Well beaten by First Flow last time. Was fancied that day and could out-run his odds, but has to be ignored as a bet.
** Mengli Khan (12/1)
Put in his place by Getabird by 9 lengths last time. Is a Grade 1 winner in a key trial for this, but inexplicably ran through the fence-wing in between times. Should be better than a two star but is marked down with plenty of flat/hurdles run under his belt.
*** Paloma Blue (14/1)
Seems to be fancied by some of the industry 'experts', but just seems to be short of the class that wins this on what he's shown.
* Saxo Jack (250/1)
Move on, nothing to see here.
*** Sharjah (20/1)
Looked good before falling in a Grade 1, before being put in his place last time. Has winning form in heavy ground.
* Shoal Bay (100/1)
No good enough to win this.
* Simply The Betts (40/1)
Shouldn't be good enough to trouble the market leaders.
**** Slate House (25/1)
Beat Summerhill Boy here early in the season, but didn't stay, on heavy, when upped in trip last time. By Presenting, he looks to need further over time, but the ground may bring him into the equation here.
**** Summerville Boy (10/1)
Best run last time out at Sandown on heavy, when beating Kalashnikov by 4 lengths. Other 2 runs at Cheltenham where he was behind Slate House and Western Ryder. So track is a worry although he'll love the ground.
*** Trainwreck (100/1)
A lot to do to make the frame here, but does tick more boxes than most.
** Us And Them (50/1)
Beat Trainwreck, before a close 2nd in small field Grade 3 last time. More improvement could be to come.
** Western Rider (40/1)
Entered in this as he won't stay in the ground in the Ballymore, good start to season before not quite hitting the heights that will win this. He's coming from a 2m4f race at Huntingdon. Huntingdon is notorious as the worst track to have a prep run, being the complete opposite to Cheltenham, however with the ground so bad, having a bit of stamina in the pedigree isn't a negative to me.
**** Dame Rose (80/1)
Ticks plenty of boxes, but not particularly outstanding this season, even against her own sex. Can't see here beating the boys here.
* Khudha (200/1)
Beaten 78 lengths in his last 3 races and 4 year old have a poor record in this.
Conclusion
The last 7 winners had all won a Graded Hurdle, which gives us a short-list of 7 horses. The likeliest winner is Getabird, but he's not my sort of price especially with only 2 runs. Kalashnikov is more like it, but is winning a Grade 3 Hurdle last time good enough for this. Claimantakinforgan, Mengli Khan and Slate House haven't gone on after early promise. Summerville Boy looked good last time, on heavy, but has 2 defeats at Cheltenham this season. First Flow has done nothing wrong so far and will love the ground, is he good enough? Time will tell.
Selection
Selection
FIRST FLOW (12/1 e/w, Ladbrokes, Coral)
[Might be bigger prices on tuesday morning].
[Might be bigger prices on tuesday morning].
RACING
POST ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY
NOVICES' CHASE
NOVICES' CHASE
1
Mile 7
Furlongs 199 Yards,
Grade 1 Novice Chase
Overview
This looks a cracking renewal with the 3rd, 4th and 8th from last year's Champion Hurdle embarking on chasing careers this season. Just the 5 runners, but 4 live contenders.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.6 stars
2017
***** Altior (1/4 fav)
2016
***** Douvan (1/4 fav)
2015
***** Un De Sceaux (4/6 fav)
2014
** Western Warhorse (33/1)
2013
***** Simonsig (8/15 fav)
2012
***** Sprinter Sacre (8/15 fav)
2011
***** Captain Chris (6/1)
2010
***** Sizing Europe (6/1)
2009
***** Forpadydeplasterer (8/1)
2008
**** Tidal Bay (6/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Top 2 in all Chase finishes.
10/10
Had run within the last 80 days.
10/10
Were not flat-bred.
9/10
Aged 6 or 7 years old. [Sizing Europe won aged 8 in 2010.]
9/10
An Adjusted RPR of 160 or more. (10/10 OR 147+ or unrated.)
[Exception: Western Warhorse (148), had only 1 run]
9/10
Rated within 6lbs of the RPR Top Rated. [Exception: Western Warhorse
(23lbs) in 2014]
9/10
Ran to a Hurdles rating of 143 or more. [Exception: Western Warhorse
130]
8/10
Had 3-5 Chase starts. Both exceptions less.
8/10
Had won last time. [Exceptions were 2nd in Grade 1 and Class 2
Chases]
8/10
Won a Novice Chase between 2m and 2m3f. Exceptions won at 2m4f and
2m41/2f.
8/10
Had a course win or had a top 4 finish at a previous festival.
Additionally
29
of the last 31 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on their last start.
25
of the last 27 winners started at 9/1 or less.
18
of the last 20 winners had not unseated/fallen in their chase career.
17
of the last 19 winners were aged 5-7.
16
of the last 18 winners had a hurdles rating of 142+,
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-1-5
6yo
3-3-30
7yo
6-10-46
8yo
1-3-13
9yo
0-0-6
10yo
0-0-1
12yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 3-2-10
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 2-1-10
Henry
de Bromhead (Ire) 1-2-5
Philip
Hobbs 1-1-5
David
Pipe 1-0-4
Contenders
**** Brain Power (7/1)
Hasn't completed his last two starts. The last, in open company. Got to be a worry, but a danger if he gets it together. Had a wind operation since his last run.
**** Brain Power (7/1)
Hasn't completed his last two starts. The last, in open company. Got to be a worry, but a danger if he gets it together. Had a wind operation since his last run.
***** Footpad (11/8fav)
Worthy favourite, faultless so far.
Worthy favourite, faultless so far.
**** Petit Mouchoir (9/4)
Beat Footpad 3 times over hurdles, but behind him last time over fences. He'll have needed the run and it was only his second run of the season. He'll improve for that, and he'll have to.
** Robinshill (80/1)
Not good enough on his form so far and disappointed both times he's run at the Festival.
Beat Footpad 3 times over hurdles, but behind him last time over fences. He'll have needed the run and it was only his second run of the season. He'll improve for that, and he'll have to.
** Robinshill (80/1)
Not good enough on his form so far and disappointed both times he's run at the Festival.
**** Saint Calvados (4/1)
Impressive last time at Warwick. He's a French import and is only 5 years old. Loves soft ground but possibly lacks the class of some others.
Impressive last time at Warwick. He's a French import and is only 5 years old. Loves soft ground but possibly lacks the class of some others.
Conclusion
Only 5 runners. Footpad has looked excellent so far. The ground will suit him and he has stamina as well. Saint Calvados may lack the class of the usual winner, but will love the ground. Petit Mouchoir needs to jump better but is the class in the race, not sure he wants it too soft.Selection
No bet. Footpad to beat Saint Calvados, probably.
ULTIMA
HANDICAP CHASE
3m
1f,
Grade 3
Handicap
Chase
Overview
Tricky handicap to get through. Big weights in the past were a no no, but the last 4 winners carried 11-3 or more. The weight spread is only 18lbs and we don't have a full field for the first time in a while. 3m1f in soft ground should get rid of plenty of horses this time.
Last
10 Winners- average 3.9 stars
2017
*** Un Temps Pour Tout (9/1)
2016
**** Un Temps Pour Tout (11/1)
2015
*** The Druids Nephew (8/1)
2014
**** Holywell (10/1)
2013
*** Golden Chieftain (28/1)
2012
*** Alfie Sherrin (14/1)
2011
***** Bensalem (5/1)
2010
***** Chief Dan George (33/1)
2009
**** Wichita Lineman (5/1 fav)
2008
***** An Accordion (7/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Aged between 7 and 10 years old. 8 were aged 7 or 8.
10/10
Won over 2 miles 71/2 furlongs
or more.
9/10
OR no bigger than 148. [Previous winner Un
Temps Pour Tout was
rated 148 & 155]
9/10
Had run between 2 and 5 times that season. [Golden
Chieftain racked
up 7 before winning this]
9/10
Had achieved a Chase RPR of 143. [Alfie
Sherrin was
the worst rated winner (135)]
9/10
Had run within the last 47 days. [Wichita
Lineman was
off for 94 days)
8/10
Finished in the top 3 in one of the last 2 starts. 2 winners were
unplaced in decent Hurdle races last time.
8
/10
Had run less than 10 times over fences.
7/10
Carried no more than 11-03 in weight. [All 3 within the last 4
years].
Additionally
The
last 19 winners were aged between 7 and 10.
The
last 13 winners had between 2 & 7 runs that season.
16
of the last 18 winners had won over 3 miles or more
Only
two horses aged 11 or more have placed since 1997.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
0-3-15
7yo
3-11-44
8yo
5-2-55
9yo
1-8-48
10yo
1-2-30
11yo
0-2-17
12yo
0-0-4
13yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
David
Pipe 3-3-14
Jonjo
O'Neill 3-1-15
Neil
Mulholland 1-1-7
Alan
King 1-1-10
Nicky
Henderson 0-2-10
Contenders
**** Gold Present (7/1)
In good form, but not raced in 2018, possibly avoiding soft ground.
** Sizing Codelco (25/1)
Looks exposed and season form a big negative. Off for 3 months a negative too.
** Tala Enki (16/1)
Conditions will be fine, but run 24 days ago may have taken it out of him. Doesn't put 2 good runs together.
** Shantou Flyer (20/1)
Exposed and best form over shorter.
*** O O Seven (12/1)
No form over this far and is ignored
*** Vicente (16/1)
Dour stayer, unpredictable, better on spring ground.
**** Beware The Bear (14/1)
Well backed in the 4 miler last year but finished a disappointing 7th. Can't help thinking this far on soft won't be to his liking.
**** Wakanda (16/1)
First win for over 2 years last time. 22 chases behind him now, so one to look to take on.
***** Singlefarmpayment (7/1)
So unlucky last season, when beaten by Un Temps Pour Tout. 3lbs higher this year but his form doesn't compare to last season.
*** Ramses De Teillee (14/1)
Ground no problem and consistent in small fields. Only 6 years old though (last winner in 1994) and had a busy campaign. Pipe/Scudamore combo has won the last 2 renewals.
** Knight Of Noir (25/1)
Doesn't look good enough to win this. Busy summer campaign and then off since October.
**** Coo Star Sivola (6/1fav)
He's a 6yo. That's his noly negative. Stepped up as a player last time at Exeter. Before that I'd have had doubts about the trip/ground combo.
***** Vintage Clouds (10/1)
Good 4th in the Welsh National considering he made errors at crucial times. Did he need another stamina sapping run at Wetherby next up, not so sure.
*** Vic De Touzaine (40/1)
Form is U1PPP, think there may be another P added in this. Not good enough to win this.
**** Gold Present (7/1)
In good form, but not raced in 2018, possibly avoiding soft ground.
** Sizing Codelco (25/1)
Looks exposed and season form a big negative. Off for 3 months a negative too.
** Tala Enki (16/1)
Conditions will be fine, but run 24 days ago may have taken it out of him. Doesn't put 2 good runs together.
** Shantou Flyer (20/1)
Exposed and best form over shorter.
*** O O Seven (12/1)
No form over this far and is ignored
*** Vicente (16/1)
Dour stayer, unpredictable, better on spring ground.
**** Beware The Bear (14/1)
Well backed in the 4 miler last year but finished a disappointing 7th. Can't help thinking this far on soft won't be to his liking.
**** Wakanda (16/1)
First win for over 2 years last time. 22 chases behind him now, so one to look to take on.
***** Singlefarmpayment (7/1)
So unlucky last season, when beaten by Un Temps Pour Tout. 3lbs higher this year but his form doesn't compare to last season.
*** Ramses De Teillee (14/1)
Ground no problem and consistent in small fields. Only 6 years old though (last winner in 1994) and had a busy campaign. Pipe/Scudamore combo has won the last 2 renewals.
** Knight Of Noir (25/1)
Doesn't look good enough to win this. Busy summer campaign and then off since October.
**** Coo Star Sivola (6/1fav)
He's a 6yo. That's his noly negative. Stepped up as a player last time at Exeter. Before that I'd have had doubts about the trip/ground combo.
***** Vintage Clouds (10/1)
Good 4th in the Welsh National considering he made errors at crucial times. Did he need another stamina sapping run at Wetherby next up, not so sure.
*** Vic De Touzaine (40/1)
Form is U1PPP, think there may be another P added in this. Not good enough to win this.
***** Minella Daddy (20/1)
Perfect trends. But I've my doubts he gonna put it together in this. Needed his first run of season after a year off the track, better next time, so could be winding up for this. May just back him for the red stars.
Perfect trends. But I've my doubts he gonna put it together in this. Needed his first run of season after a year off the track, better next time, so could be winding up for this. May just back him for the red stars.
*** Casse Tete (25/1)
Looks like this will be too far for him and he's only a 6yo. Good win last time.
**** Cogry (25/1)
Well humped by Casse Tete last time, and fell at the first the time before. Has 23 starts, but the sort who will be up there if he jumps well
*** Eamon An Cnoic (25/1)
Surely its not his trip. Leave alone.
Conclusion
I do love a good old tricky handicap. Well usually I do, but not this one. Everything has some sort of 'negative', yet something will win. The head of the market looks ok, but I don't want a 6yo in this ground. So Coo Star Sivola is out, Ramses De Teillee looks a better fit anyway and i can see that one being backed on tuesday. Singlefarmpayment ran so well last year but is short enough. Gold Present has a lot of weight and rarely runs of softer ground. Vintage Clouds will stay and likes the ground and Minella Daddy is the best on the trends.Selection
VINTAGE CLOUDS (12/1 e/w, marathonbet, sportingbet)
[no bet for me at moment as i want a major bookie to make him 12/1]
MINELLA DADDY (20/1 e/w, general, skybet 5 places)
[perfect on trends, but just a small play here]
UNIBET CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY
2
Miles 87 Yards, Grade 1
Hurdle
Last 10 Winners- average 3.8 stars
2017
*** Buveur D'Air (5/1)
2016
**** Annie Power (5/2 fav)
2015
**** Faugheen (4/5 fav)
2014
**** Jezki (9/1)
2013
*** Hurricane Fly (13/8 fav)
2012
** Rock On Ruby (11/1)
2011
***** Hurricane Fly (11/4 fav)
2010
***** Binocular (9/1)
2009
**** Punjabi (22/1)
2008
**** Katchit (10/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Had won at the distance.
10/10
Were rated within 8lbs of the RP Top Rated horse.
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 166 or more. [Buveur
D'Air (163)
had started the season as a Novice Chaser]
9/10
Had won a Grade 1 Hurdle. [Rock
On Ruby,
just at Listed level]
8/10
Had between 5 and 12 Hurdle runs. [Hurricane
Fly (19)
was a previous winner.]
8/10
Had won a Class 1 Hurdle that season, 6 won a Grade 1, 1 won a Grade
2 and 2 won a Listed race. [The 2 exceptions had just the 1 prep run
before winning the in the last 2 renewals]
8/10
Had run within the last 51 days. All ran within 79 days.
8/10
Were aged between 6 and 8 years old. One exception was a previous
winner. No horse aged 10 or more has won since Sea Pigeon in 1980 &
1981.
7/10
Had won last time out. Exceptions were, 2nd, 3rd and 4th in Graded
Hurdles.
Additionally
26
of the last 28 winners had won that season.
28
of the last 34 winners had won last time.
23
of the last 27 winners were from the first 5 in the betting.
22
of the last 26 winners had placed at a previous festival.
20
of the last 30 winners had won at Cheltenham.
The
only 5-year-old to win since 1985 was Katchit in 2008.
Since
1951, only 4 winners were 9 or older. Only 2 winners were aged 10+
No
reigning Supreme Novice Winner has won since 1971.
Since
1993, only 2 winners had not run in that calendar year.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
1-5-29
6yo
4-7-33
7yo
3-1-22
8yo
1-4-18
9yo
1-1-7
10yo
0-1-4
11yo
0-1-4
12yo
0-0-2
13yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-4-16
Nicky
Henderson 3-7-23
Paul
Nicholls 1-1-8
Donald
McCain 0-2-5
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-6
Contenders
***** Buveur D'Air (4/7fav)
The Champion, perfect on the trends.
* Ch'Tibello (50/1)
Not good enough to take this.
* Ch'Tibello (50/1)
Not good enough to take this.
* Charli Parcs (100/1)
Never built on the promise of his early juvenile form.
** Elgin (20/1)
Supplemented for this after a Grade 2 win in the Kingwell. I'd be surprised if that form is good enough for this.
**** Faugheen (6/1)
Had his well documented problems since his win in 2015. Still ticks plenty of boxes but last 2 runs underwhelming
* Identity Thief (80/1)
Was good enough once, but disappointing for a while now.
* John Constable (80/1)
Not quite at the level to win this.
* Melon (20/1)
Very disappointing in Faugheen's comeback race, probably shouldn't be a 1 star, but if you get beaten by The New One and My Tent Or Yours, what do you expect.
*** Mick Jazz (33/1)
Behind Faugheen last time. Place chance at best.
** My Tent Or Yours (16/1)
May be only 1 place up for grabs this year, but his Champion Hurdle form is 222. Now an 11 year old, he's looked as good as ever this year and looks booked for a place again.
* Wicklow Brave (16/1)
Doesn't like to start, if he does he could be a dark horse, gave a few lengths to the field last year before running on near the end and then fading.
*** Yorkhill (16/1)
Good enough to win, but he's only here because he can't jump. Won 4 out of 5 over hurdles, and could be anything.
* Verdana Blue (100/1)
Not good enough.
Conclusion
Buveur D'Air should be winning this. But the doesn't seem to be much pace in the race, so I wonder if Charlie Parcs will be doing his bit for the cause. With Faugheen now confirmed, My Tent Or Yours may have only 1 place to aim at but he looks as good as ever this season. Yorkhill could be anything but even Paul Townend doesn't want to sit on him.
Selection
MY TENT OR YOURS (16/1 e/w, paddypower)
OLBG
MARES’ HURDLE
(REGISTERED
AS THE DAVID
NICHOLSON MARES’
HURDLE)
2
Miles 3 Furlongs, 200
Yards, Grade
1
Hurdle
Overview
Gordon Elliott broke Willie Mullins stranglehold on the race last season, although Apple's Jade was with Willie at the start of the season. Just the nine runners this year suggests an uncompetative renewal.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.4 stars
2017
**** Apple’s Jade (7/2)
2016
***** Vroum Vroum Mag (4/6 fav)
2015
***** Glens Melody (6/1)
2014
***** Quevega (8/11 fav)
2013
***** Quevega (8/11 fav)
2012
***** Quevega (4/7 fav)
2011
***** Quevega (5/6 fav)
2010
***** Quevega (6/4 fav)
2009
***** Quevega (2/1 fav)
2008
* Whiteoak (20/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Aged between 5 and 7 years old or were a previous winner.
[Quevega won as a 8,9 & 10 year old]
10/10
Raced between 4 and 17 times over Hurdles. [4-10 hurdles
with Quevega and a lucky Glenn’s
Melody had more]
9/10
Rated within 12lbs of RP Top Rated. [4lbs looks more like it with 8
in that area]
9/10
Won over 2m4f or more. [Whiteoak won
over 2m1f]
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 156.
9/10
Had won a race worth £12k. [Whiteoak won
a £6k race, 8 had won £28k or more.]
8/10
Won last time. [Exceptions were 9th in a Grade 2 and 2nd in a Grade
1]
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
0-0-3
5yo
3-1-26
6yo
1-7-48
7yo
3-5-44
8yo
1-5-33
9yo
1-1-11
10yo
1-0-3
11yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 8-3-14
Nicky
Henderson 0-3-10
.
Main Contenders
***** Apples' Jade (8/13fav)
Last year's winner, hard to see her not following up this year.
Last year's winner, hard to see her not following up this year.
*** Benie Des Dieux (4/1)
Has been chasing this year, in fact hasn't jumped a hurdle for over 2 years. Very short in the market. Mullins and Walsh team up so has to be respected.
** Indian Stream (66/1)
4th last year, done nothing special this season, Hard to fancy.
**** Jer's Girl (16/1)
Fell 3 out last year when going ok, always seem to run into one, and behind Apple's Jade and La Bague Au Roi this season. Each-way chance.
* Kayf Grace (16/1)
Been running at 2 miles this season and should struggle here.
***** La Bague Au Roi (6/1)
7th in the Novice race last year, up in trip this season and in good form. Perfect on the trends and could give Apple's Jade the most to do.
* Midnight Jazz (66/1)
10th last year, and should offer little danger.
** Midnight Tour (66/1)
6th last year, could be a little closer this year.
* Pravalaguna (66/1)
Another no hoper to avoid.
Has been chasing this year, in fact hasn't jumped a hurdle for over 2 years. Very short in the market. Mullins and Walsh team up so has to be respected.
** Indian Stream (66/1)
4th last year, done nothing special this season, Hard to fancy.
**** Jer's Girl (16/1)
Fell 3 out last year when going ok, always seem to run into one, and behind Apple's Jade and La Bague Au Roi this season. Each-way chance.
* Kayf Grace (16/1)
Been running at 2 miles this season and should struggle here.
***** La Bague Au Roi (6/1)
7th in the Novice race last year, up in trip this season and in good form. Perfect on the trends and could give Apple's Jade the most to do.
* Midnight Jazz (66/1)
10th last year, and should offer little danger.
** Midnight Tour (66/1)
6th last year, could be a little closer this year.
* Pravalaguna (66/1)
Another no hoper to avoid.
Conclusion
Apple's Jade should be winning this, it's a small field and only La Bague Au Roi, Benie Des Dieux and Jer's Girl could realistically challenge.
Selection
JER'S GIRL (16/1 e/w, Bet365, William Hill)
NATIONAL
HUNT CHALLENGE CUP
AMATEUR
RIDERS’ NOVICES’ CHASE
3
Miles 7 Furlongs 170
Yards, Grade
2
Novice Chase
Last
10 Winners- average 4.6 stars
2017
**** Tiger Roll (16/1)
2016
***** Minella Rocco (8/1)
2015
**** Cause Of Causes (8/1)
2014
*** Midnight Prayer (8/1)
2013
***** Back In Focus (9/4 fav)
2012
***** Teaforthree (5/1 fav)
2011
***** Chicago Grey (5/1 fav)
2010
***** Poker De Sivola (14/1)
2009
**** Tricky Trickster (11/1)
2008
**** Old Benny (9/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had raced over fences at least 3 times.
10/10
Had finished in the top 2 in a Chase over at least 2 miles
71/2 furlongs.
10/10
Had finished in the top 5 last time.
10/10 Were by a Sire who's index was 11.5 furlongs or more. (Or DamSire if no rating)
10/10 Were by a Sire who's index was 11.5 furlongs or more. (Or DamSire if no rating)
9/10
Had achieved a hurdles rating of 125 or more in their career.
9/10
Were aged between 6 and 8 years old. [Midnight
Prayer was
a 9yo]
9/10
Had won over at least 3 miles in any sphere. [Cause
Of Causes was
2nd the Festival before in a 3m11/2f
Chase]
8/10
Had been off the track for between 24 and 78 days. [Exceptions 18 &
134days]
8/10
Had finished in the top 2 in one of their last 2 starts. [Exceptions
3rd & 5th]
8/10
Had raced in a Graded Chase. [Exceptions won Class 2 & 3 Chases]
7/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 154 or better. [The last 7, 6 of whom were
159+]
Additionally
The
last 17 winners had at least 3 starts over fences.
19
of the last 20 winners had finished in the top 4 in their last 2
starts.
18
of the last 19 winners had finished in the top 2 in a 3 mile Chase.
17
of the last 18 winners has run between 4 and 8 times that season.
11
of the last 16 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.
Since
1989, only two 6 year olds had won the race (2009 and 2016)
All
17 horses aged 10 and above were unplaced since 2002.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-0-1
6yo
2-2-25
7yo
4-8-71
8yo
3-8-52
9yo
1-2-21
10yo
0-0-7
12yo
0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 3-0-5
Alan
King 2-1-10
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 1-3-11
Ferdy
Murphy 1-1-2
David
Pipe 0-2-6
Contenders
Fails plenty of trends and is ignored
No form to speak of and fails a few trends.
***** Duel At Dawn (20/1)
Consistent sort, but 5 lengths behind Ms Parfois and she gets more weight from him this time.
**** Impulsive Star (25/1)
Sam Waley-Cohen on board, and ticks lots of boxes, but pretty uninspiring stuff so far.
***** Jury Duty (9/2fav)
Jamie Codd on board and his record is fantastic, Jury Duty has decent Graded place form but is yet to win over 3 miles.
**** Keeper Hill (10/1)
Fell when going well last time, but his Sire is a worry for this.
* Lofgren (100/1)
Easy to ignore.
**** Mossback (6/1)
Another not to win at 3 miles yet. Ran well last time but that was a tough race and only 3 weeks ago.
*** No Comment (6/1)
Very short price for a horse with just the one start over fences. Risky business, but does have one of the best amateurs on board.
** Pylonthepressure (16/1)
Just 2 starts is a big negative and the trip is an unknown.
*** Rathvinden (7/1)
He's the top-rated horse in the race, but hasn't completed his last 2 runs and as a 10 year old I have to pass him over.
*** Reigning Supreme (25/1)
Just 2 starts over fences, and ran over 2 miles last time. Difficult to see him up there at the end.
He's the top-rated horse in the race, but hasn't completed his last 2 runs and as a 10 year old I have to pass him over.
*** Reigning Supreme (25/1)
Just 2 starts over fences, and ran over 2 miles last time. Difficult to see him up there at the end.
** Robin Of Locksley (100/1)
Refused last time in his first start at 3 miles.
*** Shades Of Midnight (40/1)
Nothing to write home about.
Refused last time in his first start at 3 miles.
*** Shades Of Midnight (40/1)
Nothing to write home about.
Unusual for a 10 year old to win this.
***** Ms Parfois (8/1)
She has the perfect profile, and the 7lbs girls allowance may play a part.
Contenders
It seems to pay to follow the best jockeys in this in Jamie Codd and Derek O'Connor, but only Jamie's looks the winning type in Jury Duty, but preference is for Ms Parfois, who was available at a juicy 33/1 (not nrnb) at the 6 day stage. *shakes head and sighs*
Selection
MS PARFOIS (8/1, general)
CLOSE
BROTHERS
NOVICES’ HANDICAP
CHASE
2
Miles 4 Furlongs,
78 Yards,
Listed
Novice Chase
Overview
The tightest handicap of the meeting, looks more like one this year, after the rating ceiling was lifted to 145. Since the introduction of the JLT, the handicap was hugely compressed, 3lbs last year (without Zamdy Man's penalty) and this looks like its done the trick.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.0 stars
2017
*** Tully East (8/1)
2016
**** Ballyalton (12/1)
2015
**** Irish Cavalier (11/1)
2014
***** Present View (8/1)
2013
**** Rajdhani Express (16/1)
2012
*** Hunt Ball (13/2 fav)
2011
***** Divers (10/1)
2010
***** Copper Bleu (12/1)
2009
**** Chapoturgeon (8/1)
2008
*** Finger Onthe Pulse (9/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Aged under 10. Horses aged 6 or 7 have won 10 of the 13 renewals.
10/10
Had won at least a Class 3 Chase or Hurdle.
9/10
Had finished in the top 3 last time they completed.
9/10
Had raced over fences between 3 and 5 times.
9/10
Had last run within the last 45 days. The last 9 winners.
9/10
Hadn't won more than 2 chases. [Exception Hunt
Ball won
6 as he went 50lbs up the ratings.]
7/10
Had won over at least 2m 4f. [Exceptions won over 2m1 (twice) and
2m2]
7/10
Had not run in a Graded Chase so far. [Exceptions were 2nd,
fell in a Grade 2 and 2nd of 3 in a Grade 3, 6th in a Grade 1.]
Additionally
Only
1 horse that carried a penalty ran into a place.
Since
the start, 6 and 7 year olds have won 10 from 149 runners, all other
ages are 4 from 106. Last year they filled the top 6 places from 10
runners.
Horses
in first time head-gear have placed 6 times in the last 9 renewals.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
1-2-15
6yo
3-8-41
7yo
4-10-75
8yo
1-6-48
9yo
1-4-17
10yo
0-0-3
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 1-4-16
Alan
Fleming 1-1-3
Philip
Hobbs 1-1-10
Paul
Nicholls 1-1-10
Tom
George 0-2-8
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-9
Contenders
**** Any Second Now (7/1)
No win at the trip, in fact none in his 4 Novice Chases so far, but Footpad is a tough opponent!
**** Tycoon Prince (16/1)
Again, stamina problems likely.
**** Le Rocher (33/1)
Picked up some nice small chase wins, but could be outclassed here. Conditions are fine.
** Demi Sang (16/1)
Fails a few of the trends, but that's a little harsh, can't see him winning though.
**** Conrad Hastings (33/1)
Beaten 88 lengths in the last 2 runs. Ground problems in this.
***** Barney Dwan (8/1)
Good 2nd to Presenting Percy in the Pertemps last year. Plenty of stamina, best performances on better ground, but does go on soft.
***** Rather Be (10/1)
Perfect trends-wise, worry is that all his runs at the trip are on better ground, does handle soft or heavy at shorter.
***** De Plotting Shed (13/2fav)
De plot thickens. Well backed in the last couple of weeks and with Davy Russell on this Gordon Brown hotpot. He does look a good thing. Ground won't be a problem.
**** Rocklander (20/1)
Off for 73 days, is too long for a usual winner of this. Tom George trained, his record is a little unlucky without a winner from 50 odd runners, but he's placed frequently.
***** Divine Spear (14/1)
Concerns about his stamina on the ground should rule him out this year.
** Western Miller (40/1)
Hasn't looked good enough so far.
**** Ibis Du Rheu (25/1)
Festival winner, but yet to win over fences and not great last time. Drop back in trip may suit on the ground
**** Jameson (33/1)
Started season well, but form has tailed off recently.
**** Report To Base (20/1)
Running ok, but may have stamina issues on this ground. Trainer seems to be out of form at the moment.
**** Livelovelaugh (16/1)
10th in last season's Ballymore. Conditions will suit and its not often you'll get 16/1 about a Mullins/Walsh combination.
***** Markov (33/1)
Ground may have gone against him now.
*** Ballyhill (20/1)
Well beaten last time here. But the time before won in the conditions. Can't rule out but must improve jumping.
**** Kayf Adventure (33/1)
Only ran 18 days ago, probably in a bid to get into this race. Things didn't go to plan but he's in anyway. Don't rule out.
***** Mister Whitaker (12/1)
Perfect on trends, but all form on better ground. However did win last time here on soft.
* Deauville Dancer [Reserve] (40/1)
*** Cobra De Mai [Reserve] (50/1)
Contenders
Obviously it's a tough handicap. Best to stick to horses at the front of the market. Barney Dwan, De Plotting Shed, Livelovelaugh and Mister Whitaker all fit the bill and should give their running in the ground.
Selections
MISTER WHITAKER (12/1, bet365, paddypower, some others)
LIVELOVELAUGH (20/1 sportingbet, 16/1 general)
*** Testify (14/1)
Usually I'd be concerned about horses with plenty of stamina for this, but it may come into play in the conditions. Most winners have hid themselves from the handicapper during the season, but he hasn't with 3 wins.
Usually I'd be concerned about horses with plenty of stamina for this, but it may come into play in the conditions. Most winners have hid themselves from the handicapper during the season, but he hasn't with 3 wins.
**** Any Second Now (7/1)
No win at the trip, in fact none in his 4 Novice Chases so far, but Footpad is a tough opponent!
**** Tycoon Prince (16/1)
Again, stamina problems likely.
**** Le Rocher (33/1)
Picked up some nice small chase wins, but could be outclassed here. Conditions are fine.
** Demi Sang (16/1)
Fails a few of the trends, but that's a little harsh, can't see him winning though.
**** Conrad Hastings (33/1)
Beaten 88 lengths in the last 2 runs. Ground problems in this.
***** Barney Dwan (8/1)
Good 2nd to Presenting Percy in the Pertemps last year. Plenty of stamina, best performances on better ground, but does go on soft.
***** Rather Be (10/1)
Perfect trends-wise, worry is that all his runs at the trip are on better ground, does handle soft or heavy at shorter.
***** De Plotting Shed (13/2fav)
De plot thickens. Well backed in the last couple of weeks and with Davy Russell on this Gordon Brown hotpot. He does look a good thing. Ground won't be a problem.
**** Rocklander (20/1)
Off for 73 days, is too long for a usual winner of this. Tom George trained, his record is a little unlucky without a winner from 50 odd runners, but he's placed frequently.
***** Divine Spear (14/1)
Concerns about his stamina on the ground should rule him out this year.
** Western Miller (40/1)
Hasn't looked good enough so far.
**** Ibis Du Rheu (25/1)
Festival winner, but yet to win over fences and not great last time. Drop back in trip may suit on the ground
**** Jameson (33/1)
Started season well, but form has tailed off recently.
**** Report To Base (20/1)
Running ok, but may have stamina issues on this ground. Trainer seems to be out of form at the moment.
**** Livelovelaugh (16/1)
10th in last season's Ballymore. Conditions will suit and its not often you'll get 16/1 about a Mullins/Walsh combination.
***** Markov (33/1)
Ground may have gone against him now.
*** Ballyhill (20/1)
Well beaten last time here. But the time before won in the conditions. Can't rule out but must improve jumping.
**** Kayf Adventure (33/1)
Only ran 18 days ago, probably in a bid to get into this race. Things didn't go to plan but he's in anyway. Don't rule out.
***** Mister Whitaker (12/1)
Perfect on trends, but all form on better ground. However did win last time here on soft.
* Deauville Dancer [Reserve] (40/1)
*** Cobra De Mai [Reserve] (50/1)
Contenders
Obviously it's a tough handicap. Best to stick to horses at the front of the market. Barney Dwan, De Plotting Shed, Livelovelaugh and Mister Whitaker all fit the bill and should give their running in the ground.
Selections
MISTER WHITAKER (12/1, bet365, paddypower, some others)
LIVELOVELAUGH (20/1 sportingbet, 16/1 general)
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