JLT
NOVICES’ CHASE
(REGISTERED
AS THE GOLDEN MILLER NOVICES; CHASE)
2
Mile
3
Furlongs 198 Yards,
Grade
2
Novice Chase
Overview
Obviously with just 7 renewals, trends are in their infancy, but there are some developing and some good horses have come out of this race.
Last
7 Winners- average 4.9 stars
2017
***** Yorkhill (6/4 fav)
2016
***** Black Hercules (4/1 co fav)
2015
***** Vautour (6/4 fav)
2014
***** Taquin Du Seuil (7/1)
2013
***** Benefficient (20/1)
2012
***** Sir Des Champs (3/1)
2011
**** Noble Prince (4/1)
7-Year
Trends
7/7
Won over at 2m4 or 2m5f.
7/7
Had an Adjusted RPR of 161 or more.
7/7
Were aged 6 or 7.
7/7
Had between 2 and 5 Chase runs.
7/7
Were in the top 4 all finishes.
7/7
Had run within the last 54 days.
7/7
Won a Class 1 Chase or were 2nd in a Grade 1.
6/7
Won their last completed finish..
Additionally
14
of the 21 top 3 finishers had won last time out.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-1-4
6yo
2-5-26
7yo
5-6-28
8yo
0-2-9
9yo
0-0-4
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-1-12
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-3-6
Noel
Meade (Ire) 0-2-3
Nicky
Henderson 0-2-9
Contenders
*** Benatar (8/1)
Fails a couple of trends, Nothing too bad but possible ground worries if it goes heavier.
Fails a couple of trends, Nothing too bad but possible ground worries if it goes heavier.
** Bigmartre (20/1)
Not up to the standard of some of these and stamina problems over this far.
*** Finian's Oscar (8/1)
Classy hurdler, fiddly over his fences, pulled up back over hurdles last time. If he sorts out his jumping he can go close, but it's a risky prospect.
**** Invitation Only (7/2fav)
Lack of course form his only weakness. Should be there or thereabouts
*** Kemboy (16/1)
Not good enough on what he done so far.
**** Modus (9/1)
Top-rated horse, likes the track. He's an 8yo, but don't forget we have young trends. I'm not sure he's beaten anything so far and heavy ground won't see him at his best.
* Snow Falcon (18/1)
Hasn't done too much so far, can't win hurdles any more and Chasing seems an afterthought.
* West Approach (40/1)
Won't be winning this.
* Terrefort (4/1)
Fails lots of trends. So lets re-write the trends. He's just 5, but like plenty of French imports, he's experienced, with 8 Chase starts. He once finished 6th (yes 6th!! terrible!!) and he doesn't have course experience. However he's a Grade 1 winner and the ground is absolutely fine.
**** Shattered Love (15/2)
**** Shattered Love (15/2)
Off for 76 days, not really a negative. I expect a big run from her.
Conclusion
Pretty open race. Nothing perfect on trends. I still want to be near to the trends but you have to respect these young French chasers. Very happy to follow Shattered Love over a cliff, luckily she's pretty smart.
Selections
Pretty open race. Nothing perfect on trends. I still want to be near to the trends but you have to respect these young French chasers. Very happy to follow Shattered Love over a cliff, luckily she's pretty smart.
Selections
SHATTERED LOVE (6/1, bet365, Paddypower)
TERREFORT (7/2, general)
TERREFORT (7/2, general)
PERTEMPS
NETWORK FINAL HANDICAP
HURDLE
2
Miles
7
Furlongs 213 Yards,
Grade 3
Handicap
Hurdle
Overview
Not a great view on this sort of handicaps. Stamina good, French-Bred's bad. Ex-Chasers do well in this. Time to get the pin out.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.8 stars
Not a great view on this sort of handicaps. Stamina good, French-Bred's bad. Ex-Chasers do well in this. Time to get the pin out.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.8 stars
2017
*** Presenting Percy (11/1)
2016
***** Mall Dini (14/1)
2015
***** Call The Cops (9/1)
2014
*** Fingal Bay (9/2 fav)
2013
**** Holywell (25/1)
2012
***** Cape Tribulation (14/1)
2011
** Buena Vista (20/1)
2010
** Buena Vista (16/1)
2009
**** Kayf Aramis (16/1)
2008
***** Ballyfitz
(18/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had run within the last 61 days.
10/10
Were either British or Irish-bred.
9/10
Weight carried within 12lbs of bottom weight.
9/10
Were aged between 6 and 9. [Buena Vista retained his title
aged 10]
9/10
Had won at least a Class 3 Hurdle.
8/10
Had won over 3 miles or more. [Both exceptions won over 2m4f]
8/10
Had less than 11 hurdle runs. [Buena Vista was a seasoned
hurdler in both wins]
8/10
Finished Top 4 last time. [Buena Vista the exception both
times]
7/10
Officially rated between 132 and 142.
Additionally
14
of the last 16 winners were rated lower than 143.
12
of the last 14 winners were 10/1 or bigger, including two 50/1
winners.
12
of the last 22 winners had won last-time out from only 22% of
runners.
4
of the last 5 winners were 6 year olds.
Only
1 5yo has won in the history of the race.
Just
2 of the last 21 winners had won their qualifying race.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-3-16
6yo
4-7-56
7yo
1-9-68
8yo
3-7-48
9yo
1-1-20
10yo
1-1-14
11yo
0-2-11
12yo
0-0-1
13yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
David
Pipe 2-3-21
Patrick
Kelly 2-0-2
Malcolm / (Ruth) Jefferson 1-1-2
Venetia
Williams 1-1-7
Jonjo
O’Neill 1-1-14
Philp
Hobbs 1-1-17
Alan
King 0-4-6
Paul
Nicholls 0-3-13
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-2-4
Contenders
*** Thomas Campbell (25/1)
* Who Dares Wins (14/1)
* Boite (28/1)
** Mine Now (22/1)
*** Dell' Arca (40/1)
**** Louis Vac Pouch (11/1)
Stepped up to 3 miles for the first time, in the qualifier and won well. Not many winners of a qualifier win this, and he's unproven on heavy ground. Been off for 4 months is a negative in this race. Place chance.
Stepped up to 3 miles for the first time, in the qualifier and won well. Not many winners of a qualifier win this, and he's unproven on heavy ground. Been off for 4 months is a negative in this race. Place chance.
**** Sykes (28/1)
Aborted chasing career, the softer the better for him. More starts than your normal winner. No surprise if he was involved, but got to be something sexier lower down.
Aborted chasing career, the softer the better for him. More starts than your normal winner. No surprise if he was involved, but got to be something sexier lower down.
***** Lovenormoney (25/1)
Perfect on the trends, up and down season (2 good wins, 2 heavy defeats). Will love the ground, but has to step up again.
Perfect on the trends, up and down season (2 good wins, 2 heavy defeats). Will love the ground, but has to step up again.
* Wait For Me (25/1)
***** Prime Venture (33/1)
Good recent form is always a plus. 2 average runs since off a higher mark.
*** Sort It Out (9/1)
Yet to win over further than 2m4 and had lots of hurdles experience
** Delta Work (12/1)
*** Theo's Charm (33/1)
**** Taj Badalandabad (50/1)
More rain won't be in his favour and disappointing last time. 14 Hurdle runs a youch too much.
*** Whataknight (50/1)
** Forza Milan (12/1)
**** The Mighty Don (33/1)
The trip and ground aren't in his favour. Ignore.
**** Protek Des Flos (20/1)
Former Graded Hurdle winner before chasing, will love the ground, but trip is a worry. 3rd on first start over a trip las time (behind Taj Badalandabad). Fench-bred have a terrible record in this.
**** Kansas City Chief (25/1)
This will be tough for him (won a Class 4). Won't relish the ground.
**** Glencoe (7/1fav)
Off for slightly longer than allowed. Ground is ok, but probably won't want it any softer. Likes big fields. Should run his race.
**** Dadsintrouble (40/1)
Passed lots of trends but ughhhh, not in form, and never won this far.
** Connetable (40/1)
**** A Great View (12/1)
Another with an aborted chase career (not a negative) and has run well in defeat back over hurdles. Ground shouldn't be a problem. Trainer & Jockey unknown. Owner's 4th string on caps, but 2nd in betting order. Only won over 2 miles, but been placing over 3.
***** Prime Venture (33/1)
Good recent form is always a plus. 2 average runs since off a higher mark.
*** Sort It Out (9/1)
Yet to win over further than 2m4 and had lots of hurdles experience
** Delta Work (12/1)
*** Theo's Charm (33/1)
**** Taj Badalandabad (50/1)
More rain won't be in his favour and disappointing last time. 14 Hurdle runs a youch too much.
*** Whataknight (50/1)
** Forza Milan (12/1)
**** The Mighty Don (33/1)
The trip and ground aren't in his favour. Ignore.
**** Protek Des Flos (20/1)
Former Graded Hurdle winner before chasing, will love the ground, but trip is a worry. 3rd on first start over a trip las time (behind Taj Badalandabad). Fench-bred have a terrible record in this.
**** Kansas City Chief (25/1)
This will be tough for him (won a Class 4). Won't relish the ground.
**** Glencoe (7/1fav)
Off for slightly longer than allowed. Ground is ok, but probably won't want it any softer. Likes big fields. Should run his race.
**** Dadsintrouble (40/1)
Passed lots of trends but ughhhh, not in form, and never won this far.
** Connetable (40/1)
**** A Great View (12/1)
Another with an aborted chase career (not a negative) and has run well in defeat back over hurdles. Ground shouldn't be a problem. Trainer & Jockey unknown. Owner's 4th string on caps, but 2nd in betting order. Only won over 2 miles, but been placing over 3.
Conclusion
As usual, a horrible race, keep to small stakes. Get 6 in the placepot. Tipping Lovenormoney, perfect on trends will love the ground, needs to improve, but this is the place to do it. Protek Des Flos is a French-Bred, but he had some promise as a juvenile and i do like classy handicappers (especially under 11 stone). Others for the placepot consideration, Louis Vac Pouch, Sykes, Glencoe and A Great View.
Selections
As usual, a horrible race, keep to small stakes. Get 6 in the placepot. Tipping Lovenormoney, perfect on trends will love the ground, needs to improve, but this is the place to do it. Protek Des Flos is a French-Bred, but he had some promise as a juvenile and i do like classy handicappers (especially under 11 stone). Others for the placepot consideration, Louis Vac Pouch, Sykes, Glencoe and A Great View.
Selections
LOVENORMONEY (25/1 e/w, Bet365, 5pl)
PROTEK DES FLOS (20/1 e/w, sportingbet, 16/1 Skybet, PaddyPower 6pl, Bet365 5pl)
RYANAIR
CHASE
(REGISTERED
AS THE FESTIVAL TROPHY)
2
Miles
4
Furlongs 166 Yards, Grade
1
Chase
Overview
Doubts about all of these, but could be a classic. A Small field so no each-way from me.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.4 stars
Doubts about all of these, but could be a classic. A Small field so no each-way from me.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.4 stars
2017
***** Un De Sceaux (7/4 fav)
2016
***** Vautour (evs fav)
2015
***** Uxizandre (16/1)
2014
***** Dynaste (3/1 fav)
2013
***** Cue Card (7/2)
2012
**** Riverside Theatre (7/2 fav)
2011
**** Albertas Run (6/1)
2010
**** Albertas Run (14/1)
2009
** Imperial Commander (6/1)
2008
***** Our
Vic (4/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Aged 10 or younger.
10/10
Had finished top 2 in one of their last 2 Chase finishes.
10/10
Had won over 2m4 or 2m5f.
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 170 or more. [Imperial Commander (165)]
9/10
Had won at the course. [Exception: Riverside Theatre in 2012]
9/10
Had less than 5 runs since October. [Albertas Run had more in
his first win]
9/10
Had run between 5 and 17 times over fences. [Albertas Run (22)
won the previous year.]
9/10
Were rated within 5lbs of the RPR Top rated horse. The last 8
winners. [Imperial Commander (19lbs)]
9/10
Had won a Grade 1 chase, The last 8 winners. [Imperial Commander
won a Grade 3]
Additionally
10
of the 12 winners started at 6/1 or shorter.
9
of the 10 winners since the race was upgraded in 2008 were rated 161+
on official ratings.
9
of the 10 winners since the upgrade were rated 170+ by the Racing
Post A RPR.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
0-2-3
7yo
3-6-18
8yo
3-7-40
9yo
2-3-30
10yo
2-1-12
11yo
0-1-5
12yo
0-0-3
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 2-2-10
Jonjo
O’Neill 2-1-7
David
Pipe 2-0-5
Alan
King 1-2-8
Nicky
Henderson 1-2-13
Paul
Nicholls 0-2-10
Contenders
** Balko Des Flos (12/1)
Great run last time in the Irish Gold Cup over 3 miles. Goes on soft. Unproven on heavy. Fell in JLT last year before he could show what he could do, stable first string over Sub Lieutenant.
Great run last time in the Irish Gold Cup over 3 miles. Goes on soft. Unproven on heavy. Fell in JLT last year before he could show what he could do, stable first string over Sub Lieutenant.
* Cloudy Dream (12/1)
2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd. Lowest rated horse in the race, and questions about whether he likes going onto win.
2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd. Lowest rated horse in the race, and questions about whether he likes going onto win.
*** Cue Card (13/2)
He's now 12, will be the oldest Grade 1 winner since goodness only knows. Stamina and ground no problems and good comeback run last time.
He's now 12, will be the oldest Grade 1 winner since goodness only knows. Stamina and ground no problems and good comeback run last time.
**** Frodon (11/1)
Solid performer, beaten 15 lengths behind Cue Card last time. Not sure he's got the class for this, but he's priced accordingly.
Solid performer, beaten 15 lengths behind Cue Card last time. Not sure he's got the class for this, but he's priced accordingly.
* Sub Lieutenant (20/1)
2nd last year, but not the same force this season. Doesn't win enough to take this.
2nd last year, but not the same force this season. Doesn't win enough to take this.
***** Un De Sceaux (11/10fav)
The champ, perfect on trends, but this is surely the furthest he'll stay but only on better ground, maybe his class will see him through.
The champ, perfect on trends, but this is surely the furthest he'll stay but only on better ground, maybe his class will see him through.
Conclusion
I can't have Un De Sceaux on the ground at the price, let him win. Cue Card won this in 2013, he can win again aged 12. Balko Des Flos is interesting but has to prove it again. Not many of these have wins this season, so it could be a keep your powder dry kind of race, I won't and will probably have a couple of win bets.
Selections
I can't have Un De Sceaux on the ground at the price, let him win. Cue Card won this in 2013, he can win again aged 12. Balko Des Flos is interesting but has to prove it again. Not many of these have wins this season, so it could be a keep your powder dry kind of race, I won't and will probably have a couple of win bets.
Selections
BALKO DES FLOS (14/1, bet365, PaddyPower)
CUE CARD (11/2 Unibet, 5/1 general)
CUE CARD (11/2 Unibet, 5/1 general)
SUN
BETS STAYERS’ HURDLE
2
Miles
7
Furlongs 213 Yards, Grade
1
Hurdle
Overview
Looks a substandard renewal, and very open.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.8 stars
Looks a substandard renewal, and very open.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.8 stars
2017
**** Nichols Canyon (10/1)
2016
**** Thistlecrack (evs fav)
2015
** Cole Harden (14/1)
2014
* More Of That (15/2)
2013
**** Solwhit (17/2)
2012
**** Big Buck’s (5/6 fav)
2011
**** Big Buck’s (10/11 fav)
2010
***** Big Buck’s (5/6 fav)
2009
***** Big Buck’s (6/1)
2008
***** Inglis
Drever (11/8 fav)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
2-4 runs since August.
10/10
Aged between 6 and 9.
9/10
Finished in the top 2 last time. [9 won] [Cole Harden, in
2015, was 4th]
9/10
Top 2 in all hurdle finishes that season. [Cole Harden (4th)]
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 165. [Cole Harden (162)]
9/10
Were rated within 7lbs of the RP Top rated [More Of That
(14lbs)]
8/10
Had previous festival experience. 7 in Grade 1’s. [More Of That
had not]
7/10
Had won a Graded Hurdle over 3 miles or more. [Exceptions: had won
Grades 1 and 2 over 2m4/5]
7/10
Had run in between 9 and 20 hurdle races. [Big Buck's (23,28)
was the reigning champion twice, More Of That had just 4
starts]
Additionally
The
last 31 winners finished in the top 4 last time they completed.
25
of the last 28 winners were aged 6-8. Of the 3 9yos to win, 2 were
the currrent champion.
19
of the last 24 winners had run in the previous year's festival.
17
of the last 18 winners finished in the top 2 last time they
completed.
16
of the last 17 winners came from the top 4 in the betting.
15
of the last 16 winners had been in the top 2 over hurdles all season.
12
of the last 16 winners had won a Graded Hurdle over 3 miles or more.
No
Albert Bartlett runner has every won, including 5 winners.
No
winner came from out of the top 2 in the previous year's renewal
since 1981.
No
5-year old has ever won.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-1-5
6yo
3-10-30
7yo
2-2-37
8yo
2-2-28
9yo
3-3-17
10yo
0-1-8
11yo
0-1-5
13yo
0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Paul
Nicholls 4-3-17
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 1-2-17
Eamon
O’Connell (Ire) 0-2-3
Alan
King 0-2-8
Nicky
Henderson 0-2-12
Contenders
* Bacardys (12/1)
Quietly fancied as step up in trip should suit, but not good enough on his form so far and pretty inexperienced.
Quietly fancied as step up in trip should suit, but not good enough on his form so far and pretty inexperienced.
*** Donna's Diamond (80/1)
Supplemented for the race, has won a Grade 2 hurdle last time on heavy.
Supplemented for the race, has won a Grade 2 hurdle last time on heavy.
**** L'Ami Serge (12/1)
Won a French stayers hurdle, but seems to find one too good.
Won a French stayers hurdle, but seems to find one too good.
** Lil Rockerfeller (40/1)
Really unlucky last year. Doesn't win too often and the ground is big worry over this distance.
Really unlucky last year. Doesn't win too often and the ground is big worry over this distance.
* Old Guard (66/1)
Very bust this season and unlikely to stay this far.
Very bust this season and unlikely to stay this far.
** Penhill (14/1)
Albert Bartlett winner - they've never won this race - and off all season. Big ask to win first time out.
Albert Bartlett winner - they've never won this race - and off all season. Big ask to win first time out.
**** Sam Spinner (7/2fav)
Worthy favourite, will stay and ground is no problem. Won one of the major trials. Small stable though.
Worthy favourite, will stay and ground is no problem. Won one of the major trials. Small stable though.
**** Supasundae (8/1)
Won Coral Cup last season and then the Irish Champion Hurdle (2 miles) Will he stay in this ground. I'm not sure.
Won Coral Cup last season and then the Irish Champion Hurdle (2 miles) Will he stay in this ground. I'm not sure.
* The New One (16/1)
Probably should have come to this earlier. Too old now. Ground ok, but not sure at this trip.
Probably should have come to this earlier. Too old now. Ground ok, but not sure at this trip.
* The Worlds End (40/1)
Beaten fair and square by Sam Spinner twice.
Beaten fair and square by Sam Spinner twice.
* Unowhatimeanharry (8/1)
Should have been winning this last year. Not in the same form now. Can't rule out, but not for me.
** Wholestone (22/1)
Should be higher than 2 stars. Loves the course and has place chances.
***** Yanworth (13/2)
Won at Aintree on good over this far, whether he'll get home on the ground is another matter. Perfect on trends, so considered.
***** Apple's Jade (14/1)
3rd in the Mares Hurdle, will she run?
* Augusta Kate (40/1)
Form behind Presenting Percy last time working out well, but best form at 2m4.
* Colin's Sister (40/1)
Love the horse, but up against it here. Has a place chance at best.
* Let's Dance (50/1)
No idea why she didn't go for the mares hurdle, behind Augusta Kate last time.
Should have been winning this last year. Not in the same form now. Can't rule out, but not for me.
** Wholestone (22/1)
Should be higher than 2 stars. Loves the course and has place chances.
***** Yanworth (13/2)
Won at Aintree on good over this far, whether he'll get home on the ground is another matter. Perfect on trends, so considered.
***** Apple's Jade (14/1)
3rd in the Mares Hurdle, will she run?
* Augusta Kate (40/1)
Form behind Presenting Percy last time working out well, but best form at 2m4.
* Colin's Sister (40/1)
Love the horse, but up against it here. Has a place chance at best.
* Let's Dance (50/1)
No idea why she didn't go for the mares hurdle, behind Augusta Kate last time.
Conclusion
This looks Sam Spinner's all the way. Yanworth is classy but trip/ground unknown. Not sure Supasundae will stay either [update now 8/1, that is far too big really], L'Ami Serge can make the frame.
Selections
This looks Sam Spinner's all the way. Yanworth is classy but trip/ground unknown. Not sure Supasundae will stay either [update now 8/1, that is far too big really], L'Ami Serge can make the frame.
Selections
SAM SPINNER (7/2 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Marathonbet) - Might get pushed out by William Hill between 12-1pm
BROWN
ADVISORY & MERRIEBELLE
STABLE
PLATE HANDICAP
CHASE
(REGISTERED
AS THE MILDMAY OF FLETE PLATE)
2
Miles
4
Furlongs 166 Yards, Grade
3
Handicap
Chase
Overview
Another pinsticking job. Lower weights are best, 3 horses a trends-perfect.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.9 stars
2017
***** Road To Respect (14/1)
2016
***** Empire Of Dirt (16/1)
2015
*** Darna (33/1)
2014
*** Ballynagour (12/1)
2013
***** Carrickboy (50/1)
2012
*** Salut Flo (9/2 fav)
2011
*** Holmwood Legend (25/1)
2010
***** Great Endeavour (18/1)
2009
***** Something Wells (33/1)
2008
** Mister
McGoldrick (66/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had won at least a Class 3 Chase.
10/10
Had won over a distance of 2m3-2m5f.
9/10
Had less than 17 Chase starts. [Mister McGoldrick (33) in
2008]
9/10
Officially Rated between 135-145. [Holmwood Legend (130)]
9/10
Carried less than 11 stone. [Mister McGoldrick (11-7)]
8/10
Aged between 6 and 9. [Exceptions 10 & 11]
7/10
Hadn't run in either of that season's Cheltenham’s big 2m4f
Handicaps.
7/10
Had run within the last 60 days.
Additionally
26
of the last 30 winners were rated less than 142.
21
of the last 23 winners carried less than 11 stone.
20
of the last 26 winners had a top 4 finish last time out.
19
of the last 26 winners had raced at a previous festival.
16
of the last 17 winners were at double-figure odds.
Only
3 Irish trained winners since 1951. But the last 2 winners were Irish
trained.
Only
1 of the last 18 winners had run more than 16 times over fences.
The
‘BetVictor’ Gold Cup winner (in November) hasn't won this in the
last 24 years.
The
last 5 year old winner was in 1999.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-1-3
6yo
2-4-19
7yo
1-4-39
8yo
2-12-61
9yo
3-4-48
10yo
1-5-34
11yo
1-1-15
12yo
0-0-4
13yo
0-1-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
David
Pipe 3-3-21
Venetia
Williams 2-2-19
Sue
Smith 1-1-5
Gary
Moore 0-2-4
Ferdy
Murphy 0-2-6
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-9
Philip
Hobbs 0-2-10
Jonjo
O’Neill 0-2-10
Paul
Nicholls 0-2-14
Contenders
** Village Vic (40/1)
*** Last Goodbye (12/1)
** Ballybolley (40/1)
** The Storyteller (8/1cfav)
*** Old Grangewood (25/1)
** Viconte Du Noyer (40/1)
**** Traffic Fluide (28/1)
Beaten by plenty this season in big Grade 1's, ground isn't in his favour, but class in a handicap?
Beaten by plenty this season in big Grade 1's, ground isn't in his favour, but class in a handicap?
**** Mercian Prince (28/1)
Been on a winning run in small fields. Slow start to season, so possibly grown up now. Has another step up here.
**** Quite By Chance (33/1)
Exposed now with 30 starts, ground is a big worry too.
***** Romain De Senam (25/1)
2 fifth places in big handicaps this season on soft, dropped 3lbs since. The 3 months off is a negative, but should run his race.
*** Movewiththetimes (8/1cfav)
No idea why he's this short. 3 Novice Chases to his name and run well in them, but this is a bit more hurly burly and ground isn't in his favour.
**** Ultragold (66/1)
I backed him in the Topham at Aintree. Too inconsistent, and ground is a problem too.
***** Drumcliff (25/1)
Perfect on trends, but trip in this ground may be a problem.
**** King's Socks (8/1cfav)
Wind Op (tick), David Pipe Frenchie (tick) goes on ground (tick). Trip may be a problem, but dangerous to ignore.
***** Pougne Bobbi (33/1)
He's come from Huntingdon (notoriously bad prep-run track) and has no experience of big field races. Ground is fine, but I have my doubts.
***** Midnight Shot (66/1)
All the ticks, but Charlie Longsdon doesn't have a great Festival (or even Cheltenham) record. All runs on better ground this season.
***** King's Odyssey (20/1)
On a winning mark and trip/ground is fine. Has to be on the shortlist even if he doesn't win too often.
***** Guitar Pete (20/1)
Slight negative is his Cheltenham win earlier in the season, but I think that stat if fading out. Should go well.
***** Willie Boy (16/1)
Venetia Williams has a fine record in this race, and she's the queen of soft ground. Not sure she gets as good a horse any more though. The sort of horse who could hose up or finish tailed off. Only has 4 chase starts and has been off for 3 months.
**** Ballyalton (20/1)
He's the wrong age, but he was the wrong age winning the Novice Handicap 2 years ago. The ground seems to be against him now.
**** Shanahan's Turn (66/1)
Been running in hot handicaps, badly. Off with a wind op since and been given time to recover. 5lbs below his last winning mark and could be kept for this. If there's a big handicap winner at the festival, he could be the one.
*** Spalsh Of Ginge (33/1)
Been on a winning run in small fields. Slow start to season, so possibly grown up now. Has another step up here.
**** Quite By Chance (33/1)
Exposed now with 30 starts, ground is a big worry too.
***** Romain De Senam (25/1)
2 fifth places in big handicaps this season on soft, dropped 3lbs since. The 3 months off is a negative, but should run his race.
*** Movewiththetimes (8/1cfav)
No idea why he's this short. 3 Novice Chases to his name and run well in them, but this is a bit more hurly burly and ground isn't in his favour.
**** Ultragold (66/1)
I backed him in the Topham at Aintree. Too inconsistent, and ground is a problem too.
***** Drumcliff (25/1)
Perfect on trends, but trip in this ground may be a problem.
**** King's Socks (8/1cfav)
Wind Op (tick), David Pipe Frenchie (tick) goes on ground (tick). Trip may be a problem, but dangerous to ignore.
***** Pougne Bobbi (33/1)
He's come from Huntingdon (notoriously bad prep-run track) and has no experience of big field races. Ground is fine, but I have my doubts.
***** Midnight Shot (66/1)
All the ticks, but Charlie Longsdon doesn't have a great Festival (or even Cheltenham) record. All runs on better ground this season.
***** King's Odyssey (20/1)
On a winning mark and trip/ground is fine. Has to be on the shortlist even if he doesn't win too often.
***** Guitar Pete (20/1)
Slight negative is his Cheltenham win earlier in the season, but I think that stat if fading out. Should go well.
***** Willie Boy (16/1)
Venetia Williams has a fine record in this race, and she's the queen of soft ground. Not sure she gets as good a horse any more though. The sort of horse who could hose up or finish tailed off. Only has 4 chase starts and has been off for 3 months.
**** Ballyalton (20/1)
He's the wrong age, but he was the wrong age winning the Novice Handicap 2 years ago. The ground seems to be against him now.
**** Shanahan's Turn (66/1)
Been running in hot handicaps, badly. Off with a wind op since and been given time to recover. 5lbs below his last winning mark and could be kept for this. If there's a big handicap winner at the festival, he could be the one.
*** Spalsh Of Ginge (33/1)
Conclusion
Difficult to assess, as always, the ones i like against the field are King's Odyssey and Guitar Pete, but there's nearly always a big priced winner so have to have a dabble on Shanahan's Turn too.
Selections
Difficult to assess, as always, the ones i like against the field are King's Odyssey and Guitar Pete, but there's nearly always a big priced winner so have to have a dabble on Shanahan's Turn too.
Selections
KING'S ODYSSEY (16/1 ew, general, Skybet, 6 places)
GUITAR PETE (20/1 e/w, Bet365, 5 places)
SHANAHAN'S TURN - (66/1 ew. Bet365, Paddypower, both 5 places.) small stakes
GUITAR PETE (20/1 e/w, Bet365, 5 places)
SHANAHAN'S TURN - (66/1 ew. Bet365, Paddypower, both 5 places.) small stakes
TRULL
HOUSE STUD MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE
(REGISTERED
AS THE DAWN RUN
MARES’
NOVICES HURDLE)
2
Miles
179
Yards, Grade
2
Novice
Hurdle
Overview
Last 2 Winners- average 5.0 stars
Last 2 Winners- average 5.0 stars
2017
***** Let’s Dance (11/8 fav)
2016
***** Limini (8/11 fav)
‘Trends’:
Taking
a line from the Supreme Novice Trends, we have something to play
with.
Aged
5-6:
Both
winners were 5, wih 2 placed horses aged 6.
Had
won at the distance:
Both
winners had won over 2m 2f.
Had
won a Class 1 Hurdle:
Both
winners had won at Grade 2/3 Hurdle.
Had
run within the last 2 months: Both ran within 47 days.
Has
an A.RPR of 145+:
Winners
had ratings of 148 & 153.
Finished
Top 2 Last Time:
Both
winners had won their last 2 races.
Had
run over hurdles at least twice: Winners ran 2 & 9
times.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
0-0-3
5yo
2-1-10
6yo
0-2-13
7yo
0-1-5
8yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 2-0-4
Alan
King 0-2-3
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-1-3
Nicky
Henderson 0-1-4
Contenders
* Cap Soleil (12/1)
***** Laurina (4/6fav)
***** Maria's Benefit (7/1)
* Dawn Shadow (80/1)
* Angels Antics (80/1)
** Champayne Lady (100/1)
** Countister (16/1)
** Cut The Mustard (40/1)
* Ellie Mac (100/1)
* High School Days (33/1)
* Pietralunga (40/1)
** Rouergate (80/1)
* Salsaretta (14/1)
** Spice Girl (66/1)
***** Laurina (4/6fav)
***** Maria's Benefit (7/1)
* Dawn Shadow (80/1)
* Angels Antics (80/1)
** Champayne Lady (100/1)
** Countister (16/1)
** Cut The Mustard (40/1)
* Ellie Mac (100/1)
* High School Days (33/1)
* Pietralunga (40/1)
** Rouergate (80/1)
* Salsaretta (14/1)
** Spice Girl (66/1)
Conclusion
The
short-priced Willie Mullins / Ruby Walsh horse has won both renewals. Laurina should win, Maria's Benefit for the forecast. Salsaretta may make the frame, but with 1 place likely to be available, shes not a viable bet.
Selections
No bet.
Selections
No bet.
FULKE
WALWYN KIM MUIR CHAlLENGE CUP AMATEUR RIDERS’ HANDICAP CHASE
3
Miles
2
Furlongs, Class
2
Handicap
Chase
Overview
Ah great, amateur riders. Always look for the best amateurs, avoid claimers. and get the pin ready.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.9 stars
Ah great, amateur riders. Always look for the best amateurs, avoid claimers. and get the pin ready.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.9 stars
2017
*** Domesday Book (40/1)
2016
**** Cause Of Causes (9/2)
2015
*** The Package (9/1)
2014
***** Spring Heeled (12/1)
2013
**** Same Difference (16/1)
2012
***** Sunnyhillboy (13/2 fav)
2011
***** Junior (10/3 fav)
2010
**** Ballabriggs (9/1)
2009
***** Character Building (16/1)
2008
**** High
Chimes (14/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Carried more than 10-09 in weight.
9/10
Were rated within 7lbs of the RPR top rated horse. [Character
Building (10lbs)]
9/10
Had run within 78 Days. [The Package (96 days) in 2015.]
9/10
Aged between 7 and 9. [The Package (12yo).]
9/10
Had won 1 or 2 Chases. [Ballabriggs (3) in 2010.]
9/10
Were officially rated between 134-142. The last 9 winners.
8/10
Had run over 2 miles 7 furlongs or more last time.
8/10
Had run in fewer than 12 chases. [Exceptions, twice in the last 3
years.]
8/10
Did not have a conditional jockey on board. Look for experienced
amateurs like Derek O’Connor and Jamie Codd.
7/10
Had won a Chase over at least 3 miles.
7/10
Ran in a 3m31/2f+ Chase.
Additionally
22
of the last 25 winners were aged 7 to 9.
31
of the last 32 winners had run in a handicap last time out. Cause
Of Causes ran in a Grade 2 in 2016.
16
of the last 18 winners had run over 2m 7f or more last time out.
[Exceptions in the last 2 years]
11
of the last 13 winner were ridden by non-claiming jockeys.
Ireland
won this in 2014 for the first time since 1984, but also won in 2016.
French-bred
horses are 0/52 since 2005.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
0-2-10
7yo
3-11-48
8yo
2-2-58
9yo
4-7-58
10yo
0-7-33
11yo
0-0-16
12yo
1-1-11
13yo
0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
David
Pipe 2-2-28
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-3-5
Jonjo
O’Neill 1-2-19
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-2-5
Ferdy
Murphy 0-2-6
Tony
Martin (Ire) 0-2-6
Venetia
Williams (Ire) 0-2-9
Nicky
Henderson 0-2-10
Contenders
** Pendra (14/1)
2nd last year off top weight after a year off. Derek O'Connor on board again and had another year off.
2nd last year off top weight after a year off. Derek O'Connor on board again and had another year off.
*** Actinpieces (33/1)
*** Wild West Wind (25/1)
**** Mall Dini (11/2jfav)
A little high in the weights, runs well here and 5th last season.
A little high in the weights, runs well here and 5th last season.
** Double Ross (40/1)
*** Final Nudge (20/1)
***** Tintern Theatre (25/1)
Conditional on board, not a good jumper, others preferred I hope.
Conditional on board, not a good jumper, others preferred I hope.
***** Missed Approach (11/1)
Proper stayer and had a wind operation since last run. Is 40 days off enough to recover, time will tell. Happy to be on his side.
***** Sugar Barron (12/1)
***** Sugar Barron (12/1)
Proper stayer, off for 3 months a touch too long. Ground will be fine and the lovely, beautiful, super bumper winning rider Katie Walsh is on board.
**** Braqueur D'Or (28/1)
Unproven of ground this soft. Negatives are the 3 months off and 3 wins for Paul Nicholls (not his race)
**** Squouateur (11/2jfav)
Jamie Codd on board, but the trip is a worry for me. Not won in 9 Chases and plenty short for those reasons. Had a wind-op since last run.
**** Very First Time (33/1)
Ground ok ,but not experienced the hustle and bustle of a big handicap before. Have to pass over.
**** The Young Master (20/1)
Always runs a good race. No form this year. Place chance.
**** Aubusson (25/1)
Not sure he'll stay and doesn't run particularly well at the track. Was a decent hurdler, so the class is there and on a decent weight. On balance one to leave.
*** Marinero (80/1)
** Pressurize (80/1)
*** Band Of Blood (12/1)
** Arctic Gold (50/1)
* Captain Buck's (40/1)
*** Millanisi Boy (33/1)
**** Braqueur D'Or (28/1)
Unproven of ground this soft. Negatives are the 3 months off and 3 wins for Paul Nicholls (not his race)
**** Squouateur (11/2jfav)
Jamie Codd on board, but the trip is a worry for me. Not won in 9 Chases and plenty short for those reasons. Had a wind-op since last run.
**** Very First Time (33/1)
Ground ok ,but not experienced the hustle and bustle of a big handicap before. Have to pass over.
**** The Young Master (20/1)
Always runs a good race. No form this year. Place chance.
**** Aubusson (25/1)
Not sure he'll stay and doesn't run particularly well at the track. Was a decent hurdler, so the class is there and on a decent weight. On balance one to leave.
*** Marinero (80/1)
** Pressurize (80/1)
*** Band Of Blood (12/1)
** Arctic Gold (50/1)
* Captain Buck's (40/1)
*** Millanisi Boy (33/1)
** West Wizard (100/1)
Conclusion
Aaaand, the pin has landed on Missed Approach and Sugar Baron.
Selections
Aaaand, the pin has landed on Missed Approach and Sugar Baron.
Selections
MISSED APPROACH (11/1 Unibet)
SUGAR BARON (12/1e/w Betbright, Betfred, Unibet)
Bad place terms mean I may just go for 2 win bets. I guess if they go 14/1 or 16/1 later, then each way is a better option
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