BALLYMORE
NOVICES’
HANDICAP
HURDLE
(REGISTERED
AS THE BARING BINGHAM NOVICES’ HURDLE)
2
Miles 5
Furlongs
26
Yards,
Grade
1
Novice
Hurdle
Overview
Samcro heads the betting and is a worthy favourite, many short-priced jollies get turned over in this, hopefully we can find one.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.5 stars
2017
***** Willoughby Court (14/1)
2016
***** Yorkhill (3/1)
2015
**** Windsor Park (9/2)
2014
***** Faugheen (6/4 fav)
2013
***** The New One (7/2)
2012
***** Simonsig (2/1 fav)
2011
***** First Lieutenant (7/1)
2010
***** Peddler’s Cross (7/1)
2009
***** Mikael D’Haguenet (5/2 fav)
2008
** Fiveforthree (7/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Were aged either 5 or 6.
10/10
Were rated within 9lbs of the RPR top rated.
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 152 or better. [Exception had raced just once]
9/10
Had at least 2 runs over the sticks.
9/10
Had won, or at least finished 2nd in a Graded Hurdle. [Exception once
raced]
9/10
Were bred for National Hunt (Irish Point-to-Points or Bumpers).
[Exception raced in France]
8/10
Had won at least 50% of their hurdle races.
8/10
Had not run at a previous festival, (ie last years bumper).
[Exceptions 5th & 6th in the bumper]
8/10
Had won a 2m4 or 2m5f hurdle
8/10
Had finished in the top 2 in all Hurdles so far.
Additionally
33
of the last 34 winners had finished in the top 2 last time out.
30
of the last 32 winners were from the top 6 in the betting.
24
of the last 25 winners were aged either 5 or 6.
17
of the last 19 winners were NH-bred.
No
winner aged 4 since 1991. All 21 unplaced.
No
winner aged 7+ since 1974.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
0-0-2
5yo
3-6-44
6yo
7-12-69
7yo
0-2-19
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-5-20
Mouse
Morris (Ire) 1-2-5
Dermot
Weld (Ire) 1-1-4
Alan
King 0-3-10
Nick
Williams 0-2-2
Contenders
** Ahead Of The Curve (200/1)
Handicapper won't be winning this.
Handicapper won't be winning this.
* Aye Aye Charlie (80/1)
Handicapper won't be winning this.
**** Black Op (9/1)
Outstayed by Santini here last time in similar conditions, they pulled well clear. He can forgiven that he's 7. Should make the frame.
** Brahma Bull (40/1)
Won on hurdles debut (3 miles). Will improve for that run, but I'd like him to have more experience.
** Coolanly (100/1)
Only 2 runs under rules. Not too far from Vinndication on hurdles bow, but must be opposed here.
** Diablo De Rouhet (150/1)
Shouldn't be good enough.
*** Duc Des Genievres (14/1)
Stamina doubts for this, could have run in the Supreme Novices hurdle.
*** Gowiththeflow (66/1)
Not good enough on form, but has run into some decent ones. One of the better big priced runners.
** Knight In Dubai (100/1)
Disappointing when upped in class, should find it too hot here.
*** Mind's Eye (50/1)
Only 15 lengths off Samcro, on debut, gone handicapping, so this is a big step up in class.
***** Next Destination (7/2)
4th in last year's bumper. Done nothing wrong so far. Should be challenging at the sharp end.
***** Samcro (8/11fav)
Looks a very good horse in paper, very short in the market, but should win.
** Scarpeta (25/1)
Should be a step too far on this ground.
*** Vision Des Flos (16/1)
Looks better down in trip and is opposed on this ground.
Conclusion
Its hard to oppose Samcro, except on price. I expect Next Destination and Black Op to fill the frame. Gowiththeflow will improve, but doesn't have the form in the book. I'll take Black Op at 9/1 and Gowiththeflow e/w in the w/o Samcro market when it's up.
Selection
BLACK OP (10/1, William Hill, Bet365)
GOWITHTHEFLOW (w/o Samcro, 40/1) or (80/1, PaddyPower) - small stakes
GOWITHTHEFLOW (w/o Samcro, 40/1) or (80/1, PaddyPower) - small stakes
RSA
INSURANCE NOVICES’
CHASE
3
Miles 80
Yards,
Grade
1
Novice
Chase
Overview
The role of honour for this is impressive providing many a future Gold Cup winner. There's a strong Irish interest this year vs Black Corton and Bryony Frost.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.5 stars
2017
**** Might Bite (7/2 fav)
2016
***** Blaklion (8/1)
2015
*** Don Poli (13/8 fav)
2014
***** O’Faolains Boy (12/1)
2013
*** Lord Windermere (8/1)
2012
***** Bobs Worth (9/2)
2011
***** Bostons Angel (16/1)
2010
***** Weapon’s Amnesty (10/1)
2009
***** Cooldine (9/4 fav)
2008
***** Albertas Run (4/1 fav)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Were horses bred for National Hunt racing, no flat runners here.
10/10
Were rated to within 15lbs of the RPR top rated horse.
10/10
Had been a Novice Hurdler the previous season. [Might Bite was
a 2nd season Novice Chaser, but went chasing at the earliest
opportunity]
9/10
Had finished top 2 in a Grade 1 or 2 Chase. [Might
Bite fell
while cruising to victory in the Grade 1 Feltham/Kauto Star Chase]
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 160. [Lord
Windermere (155)]
9/10
Had run within the last 39 days. [Don
Poli was
off for 72 days in 2015, the first for 50 years to win after not
running that year.]
9/10
Had started between 3 and 5 Chases. [Don
Poli (2
chases)]
9/10
Had finished in the top 2 last time. Lord
Windermere was
3rd within
½ length of winner.
8/10
Were aged 7 years old. [Don
Poli was
6, Might
Bite 8]
8/10
Had won over 2m71/2f
or more under rules. Exceptions: 2m3f and 2m5f (with a 3m PtP win)]
Additionally
52
of the last 53 winners had run that year. Don Poli, ran
on 28th December.
28
of the last 30 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.
22
of the last 24 winners had started at least 3 chases. Don
Poli (2) an exception.
23
of the last 25 winners were British/Irish bred.
21
of the last 25 winners were Novice Hurdlers last season.
14
of the last 18 winners were aged 7.
No
horse older than 8 has won since 1992 [Minnehoma].
Only
3 6-year olds have won since 1978.
Only
1 5-year old has won since 1950.
No
ex-flat horse has placed since 1994.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-1-4
6yo
1-4-18
7yo
8-9-59
8yo
1-4-21
9yo
0-2-8
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 2-4-11
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 2-3-15
Jonjo
O’Neill 1-1-2
Jessica
Harrington (Ire) 1-1-3
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 1-1-4
Contenders
**** Al Boum Photo (7/1)
Staying on strongly vs Monalee last time up, but that was over shorted and I worry that he won't stay in this ground.
Staying on strongly vs Monalee last time up, but that was over shorted and I worry that he won't stay in this ground.
* Allysson Monterg (50/1)
Not up to this level.
**** Ballyoptic (16/1)
Should have done more than he has show so far. But decent performance last time. Stays and goes on the ground, outside chance.
***** Black Corton (8/1)
Started as a summer jumper, but keeps on winning (8/10 so far). Grade 1 form in the book and course form too. Gives his all every race, but is this a step too far?
** Bonbon Au Miel (20/1)
Willie Mullins' 2nd string here. Just 2 starts over fences and trip is a big worry.
**** Dounikos (9/1)
Hasn't won over this far, not a worry on good/soft, but shouldn't be winning this.
***** Elegant Escape (10/1)
Has beaten Black Corton, this season, danger to the field. May be underestimated in the market.
** Full Irish (100/1)
Outclassed here.
***** Monalee (10/3)
Runner-up in the Albert Bartlett, so stamina not an issue. Did fall 2 runs ago, but looked assured last time.
***** Presenting Percy (5/2fav)
Easy Pertemps Final winner last year. Had a bit of a weird campaign lately with a hurdles run and then met Gold Cup hopeful Our Duke in open company last time. Trip/ground no problem.
Not up to this level.
**** Ballyoptic (16/1)
Should have done more than he has show so far. But decent performance last time. Stays and goes on the ground, outside chance.
***** Black Corton (8/1)
Started as a summer jumper, but keeps on winning (8/10 so far). Grade 1 form in the book and course form too. Gives his all every race, but is this a step too far?
** Bonbon Au Miel (20/1)
Willie Mullins' 2nd string here. Just 2 starts over fences and trip is a big worry.
**** Dounikos (9/1)
Hasn't won over this far, not a worry on good/soft, but shouldn't be winning this.
***** Elegant Escape (10/1)
Has beaten Black Corton, this season, danger to the field. May be underestimated in the market.
** Full Irish (100/1)
Outclassed here.
***** Monalee (10/3)
Runner-up in the Albert Bartlett, so stamina not an issue. Did fall 2 runs ago, but looked assured last time.
***** Presenting Percy (5/2fav)
Easy Pertemps Final winner last year. Had a bit of a weird campaign lately with a hurdles run and then met Gold Cup hopeful Our Duke in open company last time. Trip/ground no problem.
Conclusion
I don't like tipping favourites, but the market has it right. Elegant Escape and Ballyoptic are viable each way bets and who can forget Black Corton.
Conclusion
I was going to bet Elegant Escape e/w, but the price has gone. The rest of the market looks correct, Al Boum Photo and Dounikos excepted. Probably best to wait for tomorrow when they push out the 2 market leaders or Elegant Escape to a cheeky 14/1!
CORAL
CUP HANDICAP
HURDLE
2
Miles 5
Furlongs 26
Yards,
Grade
3
Handicap
Hurdle
Overview
Got to be the trickiest race of the festival. Usually horses stepping up to 2m5 furlongs have an advantage, but with the heavy ground, we probably need something already proven at the trip.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.7 stars
2017
***** Supasundae (16/1)
2016
***** Diamond King (12/1)
2015
***** Aux Ptits Soins (9/1)
2014
***** Whisper (14/1)
2013
***** Medinas (33/1)
2012
** Son Of Flicka (16/1)
2011
***** Carlito Brigante (16/1)
2010
***** Spirit River (14/1)
2009
***** Nintieth Minute (14/1)
2008
***** Naiai Du Misselot (7/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Carried no more than 15lbs than the bottom weight.
10/10
Had won at least a Class 3 hurdle or 8k race in Ireland or France.
10/10
Had run no more that 4 times that season. [Supasundae's 5
runs included a race at Punchestown on April 27th, theoretically the
season before]
10/10
Had run no more that 4 times that season.
10/10
Were aged between 5 and 8 years old.
9/10
Had a break of at least 32 days from the racetrack. [32-83 days] [Aux
Ptits Soins (181
days) won in 2015]
9/10
Had won between 2m11/2f
and 2m4f. [Carlito
Brigante won
over 2m]
9/10
Had won earlier in the season. [Son
Of Flicka's record
was awful (9090)]
9/10
Had only won at most 1 handicap hurdle. [Son
Of Flicka won 2]
8/10
Had run in less than 10 hurdles.[Son
Of Flicka (22
runs)]
8/10
Were officially rated between 139-153.
7/10
Had a top 2 finish last time out.
Additionally
18
of the last 22 winners carried less than 11-04.
19
of the last 24 winners had won that season.
15
of the last 17 winners had won no more than one handicap.
21
of the last 24 winners were all officially rated less than 149. [3
of the last 4 winners rated 150+]
Only
four horses aged older than 9 have placed since 1999. [2 10yos placed
in 2017]
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
3-11-54
6yo
3-7-75
7yo
2-2-62
8yo
2-6-36
9yo
0-0-18
10yo
0-3-12
11yo
0-1-3
12yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 2-2-10
Nicky
Henderson 2-1-29
Alan
King 1-3-14
Paul
Nicholls 1-1-16
Jonjo
O'Neill 0-3-8
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-3-21
Nick
Williams 0-2-4
Noel
Meade (Ire) 0-2-7
David
Pipe 0-2-15
Contenders
*** Diamond King (25/1)
Won this 2 years ago, and back again after disappointing over fences. Only run of season showed promise, but he's now a 10 year old.
***** William Henry (8/1)
Plenty of decent course form and he won the Lanzarote Hurdle on his last run in soft ground. Big chance with a good claimer on board.
Won this 2 years ago, and back again after disappointing over fences. Only run of season showed promise, but he's now a 10 year old.
***** William Henry (8/1)
Plenty of decent course form and he won the Lanzarote Hurdle on his last run in soft ground. Big chance with a good claimer on board.
***** Topofthegame (12/1)
Usually I'd say that you don't want a stayer in this, but he'll be around at the death on ground that's fine.
Usually I'd say that you don't want a stayer in this, but he'll be around at the death on ground that's fine.
*** Abbyssial (33/1)
Out of form and any form was at 2 miles or so.
Out of form and any form was at 2 miles or so.
**** River Frost (25/1)
Difficult to assess his chances ,but you want a horse in form and he isn't
Difficult to assess his chances ,but you want a horse in form and he isn't
**** Bleu Berry (33/1)
Decent Novice form at 2 miles, but this is harder and just the one race this season. Pass.
Decent Novice form at 2 miles, but this is harder and just the one race this season. Pass.
*** Burbank (20/1)
Form in France on this ground, but looks outclassed at this level over this distance.
**** Voix Du Reve (20/1)
Little racing over the last couple of years, wouldn't be surprised if Willie Mullins got one ready for this. Form over 2 miles, been running averagely over 3 miles. Could be spot on for some 2m5f.
**** Royal Vacation (28/1)
Excellent win here 15 months ago. Uninspiring this season, down to a nice weight though. Wind operation since last run. Could be anything.
**** Mount Mews (16/1)
Been Novice Chasing up to 3 miles (12l behind Black Corton last time). Hurdle career stayed nearer 2 miles. Winners of this are usually well rested and he comes off a break of 25 days. Passed over.
**** Voix Du Reve (20/1)
Little racing over the last couple of years, wouldn't be surprised if Willie Mullins got one ready for this. Form over 2 miles, been running averagely over 3 miles. Could be spot on for some 2m5f.
**** Royal Vacation (28/1)
Excellent win here 15 months ago. Uninspiring this season, down to a nice weight though. Wind operation since last run. Could be anything.
**** Mount Mews (16/1)
Been Novice Chasing up to 3 miles (12l behind Black Corton last time). Hurdle career stayed nearer 2 miles. Winners of this are usually well rested and he comes off a break of 25 days. Passed over.
** Max Dynamite (7/1fav)
Globe-trotting flat horse, last seen at the Melbourne Cup and Hong Kong Vase. This would be the furthest he's run before. Would be an unusual winner. Favourite, so respected, but one to take on.
*** Fix Le Cap (20/1)
Another off a break of 25 days. Difficult to assess, but others preferred.
**** Stowaway Magic (33/1)
Another off a 25 day break. Been running on good ground and over fences, not for this.
*** As You Were (33/1)
Novice Hurdler (they've never won in first season). Winning form over shorter, could want this step up in trip, but one to leave alone.
***** Springtown Lake (25/1)
Good on trends, if one was Are You A Novice Hurdler, he'd slip down a bit. Decent numbers, but all in small fields.
*** Le Breuil (14/1)
Not won this season. Only wins in Class 4 Hurdles. So big step up needed.
*** Red Indian (33/1)
3rd in the Lanzerote Hurdle. Should have won since but didn't. Questions to answer. Place chances.
*** Dusky Legend (40/1)
Finding the Mares' events tough out of Novice company, Hard to see her beating the boys in a handicap.
**** C'est Jersey (33/1)
Novice Chasing this season, now back over hurdles. Hard to see him involved at the end.
***** The Organist (33/1)
Been running over 3 miles, ticks all the boxes. 2 Average runs at course a negative. Not sure she's jumping out at me.
*** Jeannot De Nonant (50/1)
Been busy this season, Good win last time but that was only 17 days ago.
*** Flemcara (40/1)
Put together a good series of wins before finally hitting his level last time. Similar expected this time.
*** Barra (33/1)
Decent 2nd last time. Needs more at this level.
***** Bastien (50/1)
Trip on good ground would be fine, but can't say he'll be staying on at the end here.
*** Graceful Legend (40/1)
Running well in Mares' races, this is a whole lot tougher
*** Project Bluebook (50/1)
Would prefer better ground. A Grade 2 winner in his Juvenile days, but all form at 2 miles or so.
Reserves:
**** Mischievous Max (33/1)
**** Kildisart (40/1)
Globe-trotting flat horse, last seen at the Melbourne Cup and Hong Kong Vase. This would be the furthest he's run before. Would be an unusual winner. Favourite, so respected, but one to take on.
*** Fix Le Cap (20/1)
Another off a break of 25 days. Difficult to assess, but others preferred.
**** Stowaway Magic (33/1)
Another off a 25 day break. Been running on good ground and over fences, not for this.
*** As You Were (33/1)
Novice Hurdler (they've never won in first season). Winning form over shorter, could want this step up in trip, but one to leave alone.
***** Springtown Lake (25/1)
Good on trends, if one was Are You A Novice Hurdler, he'd slip down a bit. Decent numbers, but all in small fields.
*** Le Breuil (14/1)
Not won this season. Only wins in Class 4 Hurdles. So big step up needed.
*** Red Indian (33/1)
3rd in the Lanzerote Hurdle. Should have won since but didn't. Questions to answer. Place chances.
*** Dusky Legend (40/1)
Finding the Mares' events tough out of Novice company, Hard to see her beating the boys in a handicap.
**** C'est Jersey (33/1)
Novice Chasing this season, now back over hurdles. Hard to see him involved at the end.
***** The Organist (33/1)
Been running over 3 miles, ticks all the boxes. 2 Average runs at course a negative. Not sure she's jumping out at me.
*** Jeannot De Nonant (50/1)
Been busy this season, Good win last time but that was only 17 days ago.
*** Flemcara (40/1)
Put together a good series of wins before finally hitting his level last time. Similar expected this time.
*** Barra (33/1)
Decent 2nd last time. Needs more at this level.
***** Bastien (50/1)
Trip on good ground would be fine, but can't say he'll be staying on at the end here.
*** Graceful Legend (40/1)
Running well in Mares' races, this is a whole lot tougher
*** Project Bluebook (50/1)
Would prefer better ground. A Grade 2 winner in his Juvenile days, but all form at 2 miles or so.
Reserves:
**** Mischievous Max (33/1)
**** Kildisart (40/1)
Conclusion
The two that do stand out are William Henry and Topofthegame. Both big handicap winners last time out who'll stay on the ground.
Selections
WILLIAM HENRY (8/1, general)
TOPOFTHEGAME (12/1 e/w, general, 5/6 places)
Selections
WILLIAM HENRY (8/1, general)
TOPOFTHEGAME (12/1 e/w, general, 5/6 places)
BETWAY
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
1
Mile
7
Furlongs 199
Yards,
Grade
1
Chase
Overview
Reports of Altior being lame yesterday, throw it all up in the air. Douvan is still likely to be going to the Ryanair chase. It will be an intriguing contest and
Last 10 Winners- average 4.7 stars
Last 10 Winners- average 4.7 stars
2017
*** Special Tiara (10/1)
2016
***** Sprinter Sacre (5/1)
2015
***** Dodging Bullets (9/2)
2014
**** Sire De Grugy (11/4 fav)
2013
***** Sprinter Sacre (1/4 fav)
2012
**** Finian’s Rainbow (4/1)
2011
**** Sizing Europe (10/1)
2010
**** Big Zeb (10/1)
2009
***** Master Minded (4/11 fav)
2008
**** Master Minded (3/1 fav)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had won over 2m1/2f or
2m1f.
10/10
Were racing within the last 81 days. [8 ran within 53 days]
10/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 170.
10/10
Were younger than 11 years old. [The last 2 winners were aged 10]
9/10
Had between 7 and 16 Chase starts. [Special
Tiara had
22 starts]
9/10
Had run no more than 4 times in the season. [Sire
De Grugy ran
6 times]
9/10
Had won a Grade 1 Chase. [Master
Minded's first
win was the exception]
9/10
Were rated within 9lbs of the RPR top rated. [Big
Zeb was
19lbs off of the highly rated Master Minded]
7/10
Won a Graded Chase last time out. [Exceptions were 2nd,3rd and
5th in
Grade 1/2 races]
Additionally
31
of the last 34 winners had won over 2m2f or more, or were C&D
winners.
31
of the last 36 winners won at a single figure price.
22
of the last 33 winners were placed at a previous festival.
18
of the last 19 winners had 7 or more Chase starts.
15
of the last 16 winners were Grade 1 Chase winners.
15
of the last 19 winners were 5/1 or shorter.
14
of the last 15 champions were beaten. [Only Master Minded
retained his title]
15
of the last 16 Arkle
winners to run
in the following year's Champion Chase all placed. [The
injuered
Douvan,
last year, being the exception]
16
of the last 25 winners had won at a previous festival. (20 of last
33)
Only
1 winner aged greater than 10 since 1977.
Only
1 of the last 21 winners had run more than 4 times that season.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
1-0-1
6yo
1-2-7
7yo
2-3-16
8yo
1-4-24
9yo
3-2-23
10yo
2-5-14
11yo
0-3-7
12yo
0-0-2
13yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 3-1-9
Paul
Nicholls 3-0-14
Henry
De Bromhead (Ire) 2-4-9
Colm
Murphy (Ire) 1-2-5
Mick
Channon 0-2-4
Tom
George 0-2-5
Contenders
**** Altior (5/4fav)
Lame yesterday, fine today, just 1 run this season takes a star off. If he's fine, he'll win.
** Ar Mad (50/1)
Front-runner and bold jumper. Found it harder in open company.
* Charbel (40/1)
Served it up to Altior in the Arkle before falling. Talented, but out of sorts this season.
** Douvan (11/4)
Been off for a year and likely to go for the Ryanair on thursday. Fails trends because of his injury, not because he has not talent. Risky proposition, but Willie wouldn't run him if he wasn't fine.
*** God's Own (50/1)
Runs well in this before finishing just out of whatever place terms I've backed him at. Plenty of stamina, 2m4 on Good at Aintree is his preferred conditions. He's now 10 but I may still have a cheeky punt on him with doubts about some of the runners.
**** Min (3/1)
Beaten by Altior in the Supreme. Brings some of the best form into the contest, so will give a good account, whether he's good enough is a different matter. Stays further and the ground is fine for him as well. One negative is he's only jumped fences 5 times, more experience would be preferred.
**** Altior (5/4fav)
Lame yesterday, fine today, just 1 run this season takes a star off. If he's fine, he'll win.
** Ar Mad (50/1)
Front-runner and bold jumper. Found it harder in open company.
* Charbel (40/1)
Served it up to Altior in the Arkle before falling. Talented, but out of sorts this season.
** Douvan (11/4)
Been off for a year and likely to go for the Ryanair on thursday. Fails trends because of his injury, not because he has not talent. Risky proposition, but Willie wouldn't run him if he wasn't fine.
*** God's Own (50/1)
Runs well in this before finishing just out of whatever place terms I've backed him at. Plenty of stamina, 2m4 on Good at Aintree is his preferred conditions. He's now 10 but I may still have a cheeky punt on him with doubts about some of the runners.
**** Min (3/1)
Beaten by Altior in the Supreme. Brings some of the best form into the contest, so will give a good account, whether he's good enough is a different matter. Stays further and the ground is fine for him as well. One negative is he's only jumped fences 5 times, more experience would be preferred.
* Ordinary World (80/1)
Short of class to win this. May pick up place money if the race falls apart for the big guns.
**** Politologue (14/1)
Done all the right things for a Champion Chase winner, but easily beaten by Altior on his comeback run last time. Good each-way chance if he doesn't try to win it.
*** Special Tiara (28/1)
Won as a 10yo last year. Likes to front run, but will have Ar Mad serving it up as well. I think the ground will make it tough for him as he looks a pure 2 miler. Looks like age has caught up with him as well
Short of class to win this. May pick up place money if the race falls apart for the big guns.
**** Politologue (14/1)
Done all the right things for a Champion Chase winner, but easily beaten by Altior on his comeback run last time. Good each-way chance if he doesn't try to win it.
*** Special Tiara (28/1)
Won as a 10yo last year. Likes to front run, but will have Ar Mad serving it up as well. I think the ground will make it tough for him as he looks a pure 2 miler. Looks like age has caught up with him as well
Conclusion
Min will give you a solid run, whether he wins or not depends on Altior. Got to be a worry that he was lame yesterday. Douvan is supposed to go for the Ryanair, but is now running here.
Selection
I don't have a strong opinion on this race. Altior should be winning this, but he's not my sort of price. On the day I may back Min at 4/1 or so. A cheeky bet on God's Own may also be in order.
Min will give you a solid run, whether he wins or not depends on Altior. Got to be a worry that he was lame yesterday. Douvan is supposed to go for the Ryanair, but is now running here.
Selection
I don't have a strong opinion on this race. Altior should be winning this, but he's not my sort of price. On the day I may back Min at 4/1 or so. A cheeky bet on God's Own may also be in order.
GLENFARCLAS
CROSS COUNTRY CHASE
3
Mile
6
Furlongs 37
Yards,
Grade
2
Chase
Overview
Some of the trends are holding up now that it's an level weight contest (Handicap until 2017). Mainly because its such a unique contest that experience of these fences and the course outweighs any weight penalties. There's no 5 star on the trends.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.7 stars
Some of the trends are holding up now that it's an level weight contest (Handicap until 2017). Mainly because its such a unique contest that experience of these fences and the course outweighs any weight penalties. There's no 5 star on the trends.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.7 stars
2017
*** Cause Of Causes (4/1)
2016
**** Josies Orders (15/8 fav)
2015
** Rivage D’Or (16/1)
2014
**** Balthazar King (4/1)
2013
***** Big Shu (14/1)
2012
** Balthazar King (11/2)
2011
**** Sizing Australia (13/2)
2010
*** A New Story (25/1)
2009
***** Garde Champetre (7/2)
2008
***** Garde
Champetre (4/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Had raced 3 or more times in the season.
9/10
Aged between 8 and 10 years old. [A
New Story was
12]
9/10
Had won a Chase over 3 miles or more. [Sizing
Australia,
2m6f]
9/10
Had run in between 7 and 21 Chases. [A
New Story (48)]
9/10
Had experienced between 1 and 6 Cross Country Chases in their
career. [exception debuted in 2015]
8/10
Irish Trained. [Exception Philip Hobbs]
7/10
Placed in a Cheltenham or Punchestown Cross Country Chase that
season.
7/10
Top 4 last time out in a Chase. [One exception was carried out and
the other fell.]
Additionally
12
of the 13 winners had won over 3 miles or more.
12
of the 13 winners had raced no more than 5 times that season.
10
of the last 11 winners were aged 8-10.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
0-1-4
7yo
0-0-8
8yo
3-2-19
9yo
3-4-33
10yo
3-4-39
11yo
0-10-26
12yo
1-4-23
13yo
0-1-11
14yo
0-3-4
15yo
0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Enda
Bolger (Ire) 3-7-31
Philip
Hobbs 2-2-10
Michael
Hourigan (Ire) 1-4-7
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-2-5
Peter
Maher (Ire) 1-1-4
Henry
de Bromhead (Ire) 1-1-5
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-3-12
Martin
Keighley 0-2-5
Contenders
**** Auvergnat (9/1)
Beat Josies Orders last time, he's a big price on that form.
* Beeves (40/1)
Too many negatives to recommend.
** Bless The Wings (10/1)
Beat Cantlow in december, he's a little old now, but has placed here in the last 2 renewals.
** Cantlow (16/1)
Consistant, but not the good thing he once was.
*** Cause Of Causes (11/4fav)
Prepped around this before winning last year and then 2nd in the Grand National. 1 prep run over 2m5 last time, so ignore that. Worthy favourite.
* Chic Name (100/1)
Not good enough.
*** Federici (50/1)
Should find a few too good.
*** Hurricane Darwin (33/1)
A little inexperienced, maybe a force next year.
**** Josies Orders (6/1)
Beat Josies Orders last time, he's a big price on that form.
* Beeves (40/1)
Too many negatives to recommend.
** Bless The Wings (10/1)
Beat Cantlow in december, he's a little old now, but has placed here in the last 2 renewals.
** Cantlow (16/1)
Consistant, but not the good thing he once was.
*** Cause Of Causes (11/4fav)
Prepped around this before winning last year and then 2nd in the Grand National. 1 prep run over 2m5 last time, so ignore that. Worthy favourite.
* Chic Name (100/1)
Not good enough.
*** Federici (50/1)
Should find a few too good.
*** Hurricane Darwin (33/1)
A little inexperienced, maybe a force next year.
**** Josies Orders (6/1)
Got given the race 2 years ago, after the winner returned a bad sample. Solid place chance.
* Saint Are (40/1)
Grand National runner up 2015, Doesn't appeal here.
*** The Last Samuri (7/1)
Grand National runner-up 2016, seems to have run out of options. Debut in a CC.
* Saint Are (40/1)
Grand National runner up 2015, Doesn't appeal here.
*** The Last Samuri (7/1)
Grand National runner-up 2016, seems to have run out of options. Debut in a CC.
**** Tiger Roll (6/1)
Similar to Cause Of Causes, had an average look at the fences first time up and could be a serious challenger.
** Urgent De Gregaine (16/1)
Won at 50/1 here this season. 2 stars is a bit harsh and has place chances.
Similar to Cause Of Causes, had an average look at the fences first time up and could be a serious challenger.
** Urgent De Gregaine (16/1)
Won at 50/1 here this season. 2 stars is a bit harsh and has place chances.
* Urumqi (66/1)
CC debut, only 7, so best watched, one for the future possibly.
*** Vicomte Du Seuil (40/1)
I backed him in November where he was just edged out of it by Kingswell Theatre. He's a big price.
CC debut, only 7, so best watched, one for the future possibly.
*** Vicomte Du Seuil (40/1)
I backed him in November where he was just edged out of it by Kingswell Theatre. He's a big price.
* Belamix D'Or (66/1)
Another French 7yo. Best watched on CC debut.
Another French 7yo. Best watched on CC debut.
Conclusion
I really like Cause Of Causes and Tiger Roll, they are priced accordingly.
However the French horses are too big a price for this.
I really like Cause Of Causes and Tiger Roll, they are priced accordingly.
However the French horses are too big a price for this.
Selections
URGENT DE GREGAINE (18/1 e/w, Paddypower)
BOODLES
FRED
WINTER JUVENILE
HANDICAP
HURDLE
2
Mile
87
Yards,
Grade
3 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Overview
Always seems to be a shock. No 5 star horse, so no Qualando for me to ignore this time.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.1 stars
2017
**** Flying Tiger (33/1)
2016
*** Diego Du Charmil (13/2)
2015
***** Qualando (25/1)
2014
**** Hawk High (33/1)
2013
**** Flaxen Flare (25/1)
2012
***** Une Artiste (40/1)
2011
** What A Charm (9/1)
2010
***** Sanctuaire (4/1 fav)
2009
***** Silk Affair (11/1)
2008
**** Crack
Away Jack (14/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had achieved a RPR rating of 110 or more.
9/10
Had run within the last 32 days (8 within 25). [Diego
Du Charmil off
for 133 days.]
9/10
Had a flat rating of at least 83 (if rated). [Hawk
High (79)]
9/10
Had an OR of 125-134. Exception far lower.
9/10
Had no more than 5 hurdle starts. [Last year, Flying
Tiger had
6]
7/10
Had won one of their last 2 starts. Two were 2nd.
7/10
Were from a Group 1 winning flat sire. [Exceptions Groups 2&3]
Additionally
12
of the 13 winners had run within 37 days.
9
of the 13 winners had just the 3 runs over hurdles.
4
of the 13 winners were fillies, and 3 places from just 19 runners.
Males: 8 wins from 259.
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Paul
Nicholls 3-6-17
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-2-10
Nick
Williams 1-1-5
Nicky
Henderson 1-1-13
Alan
King 0-4-16
David
Pipe 0-3-11
Edward
O'Grady (Ire) 0-2-3
Contenders
*** Casa Tall (33/1)
French import. Hasn't run for 109 days and is high in the weights. Ground not a problem.
*** Mitchouka (10/1)
Hasn't hidden himself from the handicapper. Probably not good enough for the Triumph Hurdle, but surprised he's not running in that.
*** Style De Garde (11/1)
Bit high in the weights and off for 2 months are slight negatives. Others preferred.
*** Act Of Valor (8/1jfav)
Ran well in defeat behind a Triumph horse in We Have A Dream. High in the weights, Paul Nicholls 2nd string.
**** Mercenaire (25/1)
1lb higher than all the last 10 winners. Tick in plenty of boxes and an interesting outsider. Lizzie Kelly prefers Esprit De Somoza.
*** Esprit De Somoza (16/1)
Straight into hurdling, running just below Graded class, may be underestimated by the handicapper. I prefer Mercenaire.
** Nube Negra (8/1jfav)
Spanish flat horse, ran Apple's Shakira (Triumph fav) to 3 lengths in his only defeat. Sire is weak.
*** Look My Way (12/1)
Another behind Apple's Shakira (8 lengths). Slight negatives, but ground should be ok.
**** Brave Dancing (33/1)
French import, first run in UK. Difficult to assess, but goes on the ground.
**** Lisp (16/1)
Doesn't hit the minimum rating on the flat. Not great last time and this is tougher.
*** Padleyourowncanoe (20/1)
Not done enough so far and falt rating only 60.
*** Veneer Of Charm (25/1)
Another without the required flat rating for usual winners, defeated by Michouka but weighted to get closer here.
*** Embole (22/1)
Won after a wind-op last time. Well beated by Esprit De Somoza.
**** Eure Du Boulay (33/1)
French import, okay on the ground. Off for 114 days a big negative.
*** Solo Saxaphone (28/1)
Not good enough to win on his form so far.
**** Oxford Blu (20/1)
Flat rating not good enough, but could be better than that.
**** The King Of May (12/1)
French import. Ok UK debut, after a while off the track. Would like another run in him but should improve and e/w chance.
*** Knight Destroyer (25/1)
Weighted to get the better of Nube Negra, after getting turned over earlier in season at 2/7. Of for 3 months and unproven on ground this deep.
**** Turning Gold (33/1)
Sightly down on flat rating, but battled back to win last time after slow start to career. Whether that is good form remains to be seen.
*** Mastermind (33/1)
Not great on the flat and had more runs than your regular winner.
*** Grand Sancy (20/1)
Sire problems and unusually came from bumpers. Paul Nicholls trained so don't rule out.
**** Eragon De Chanay (12/1)
Winning penalty on saturday gets him in here. That was impressive and if it hasn't left a mark, he could run well.
Reserves
*** American Craftsman (50/1)
**** Les Arceaux (33/1)
Conclusion
Very open as all Fred Winters are. French-bred's do well as does Paul Nicholls and Gordon Elliott. Three against the field are: Eragon De Chanay, looked good saturday and will be well in for this now. It was an easy win so hopefully he's come out of it well. I keep looking at Mercenaire and he just stands out to me as a Fred Winter type. And finally Grand Sancy, just because of the trainer and the ground was decent that day and he'll do better here.
Selection
French import. Hasn't run for 109 days and is high in the weights. Ground not a problem.
*** Mitchouka (10/1)
Hasn't hidden himself from the handicapper. Probably not good enough for the Triumph Hurdle, but surprised he's not running in that.
*** Style De Garde (11/1)
Bit high in the weights and off for 2 months are slight negatives. Others preferred.
*** Act Of Valor (8/1jfav)
Ran well in defeat behind a Triumph horse in We Have A Dream. High in the weights, Paul Nicholls 2nd string.
**** Mercenaire (25/1)
1lb higher than all the last 10 winners. Tick in plenty of boxes and an interesting outsider. Lizzie Kelly prefers Esprit De Somoza.
*** Esprit De Somoza (16/1)
Straight into hurdling, running just below Graded class, may be underestimated by the handicapper. I prefer Mercenaire.
** Nube Negra (8/1jfav)
Spanish flat horse, ran Apple's Shakira (Triumph fav) to 3 lengths in his only defeat. Sire is weak.
*** Look My Way (12/1)
Another behind Apple's Shakira (8 lengths). Slight negatives, but ground should be ok.
**** Brave Dancing (33/1)
French import, first run in UK. Difficult to assess, but goes on the ground.
**** Lisp (16/1)
Doesn't hit the minimum rating on the flat. Not great last time and this is tougher.
*** Padleyourowncanoe (20/1)
Not done enough so far and falt rating only 60.
*** Veneer Of Charm (25/1)
Another without the required flat rating for usual winners, defeated by Michouka but weighted to get closer here.
*** Embole (22/1)
Won after a wind-op last time. Well beated by Esprit De Somoza.
**** Eure Du Boulay (33/1)
French import, okay on the ground. Off for 114 days a big negative.
*** Solo Saxaphone (28/1)
Not good enough to win on his form so far.
**** Oxford Blu (20/1)
Flat rating not good enough, but could be better than that.
**** The King Of May (12/1)
French import. Ok UK debut, after a while off the track. Would like another run in him but should improve and e/w chance.
*** Knight Destroyer (25/1)
Weighted to get the better of Nube Negra, after getting turned over earlier in season at 2/7. Of for 3 months and unproven on ground this deep.
**** Turning Gold (33/1)
Sightly down on flat rating, but battled back to win last time after slow start to career. Whether that is good form remains to be seen.
*** Mastermind (33/1)
Not great on the flat and had more runs than your regular winner.
*** Grand Sancy (20/1)
Sire problems and unusually came from bumpers. Paul Nicholls trained so don't rule out.
**** Eragon De Chanay (12/1)
Winning penalty on saturday gets him in here. That was impressive and if it hasn't left a mark, he could run well.
Reserves
*** American Craftsman (50/1)
**** Les Arceaux (33/1)
Conclusion
Very open as all Fred Winters are. French-bred's do well as does Paul Nicholls and Gordon Elliott. Three against the field are: Eragon De Chanay, looked good saturday and will be well in for this now. It was an easy win so hopefully he's come out of it well. I keep looking at Mercenaire and he just stands out to me as a Fred Winter type. And finally Grand Sancy, just because of the trainer and the ground was decent that day and he'll do better here.
Selection
ERAGON DE CHANAY (12/1, general)
MERCENAIRE (28/1, Paddypower)
GRAND SANCY (20/1, Coral, Ladbrokes)
MERCENAIRE (28/1, Paddypower)
GRAND SANCY (20/1, Coral, Ladbrokes)
WEATHERBYS
CHAMPION BUMPER
2
Mile
87
Yards,
Grade
1
Standard
Open National
Hunt Flat Race
Overview
Looks a competitive bumper. Last year, Fayonagh, was a mare that was perfect on the trends. I wonder if we can find another one.
Last
10 Winners- average 3.8 stars
2017
***** Fayonagh (7/1)
2016
**** Ballyandy (5/1)
2015
***** Moon Racer (9/2 fav)
2014
*** Silver Concorde (16/1)
2013
** Briar Hill (25/1)
2012
**** Champagne Fever (16/1)
2011
**** Cheltenian (14/1)
2010
*** Cue Card (40/1)
2009
***** Dunguib (9/2)
2008
*** Cousin
Vinny (12/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Won last time.
9/10
Had won at least half of their bumpers. [Silver
Concorde had
won 1 of his 3 runs spread over 3 seasons]
9/10
Were aged 5 or 6. [Cue
Card was
a 4 year old]
9/10
Hadn't raced for at least 33 days. [Cousin
Vinny had
just 22 days off]
9/10
Had raced in less than 4 bumpers. [Ballyandy (4)]
8/10
Had an A.RPR of 126 or more. [Exceptions had won their only start.]
7/10
Had won a bumper with 13 or more runners.
7/10
Had won a bumper worth at least £4,000.
Additionally
23
of the last 25 winners had won last time out.
The
last 19 winners had no more than 4 bumper runs.
19
of the last 20 winners were aged 5 or 6.
19
of the last 25 winners were Irish-bred.
19
of the last 25 winners had won a bumper with 14 or more runners.
18
of the last 25 winners were trained in Ireland.
18
of the last 25 winners were from the first 6 in the market.
16
of the last 17 winners had won at least 50% of their bumper starts.
13
of the last 16 winners had won a bumper worth £4k or more.
.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
1-2-26
5yo
5-16-146
6yo
4-2-56
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-4-40
Dermot
Weld (Ire) 1-1-8
Contenders
***** Blackbow (5/1fav)
Good Graded win last time, beating Rhinstone. Should run well for Willie & Patrick Mullins.
**** Carefully Selected (10/1)
Ruby Walsh on board for Mullins, but don't forget Patrick Mullins gets first dibs of the bumper rides. Only ran 17 days ago is his negative.
***** Crooks Peak (25/1)
Done all that has been asked of him, will have to step up from Listed win last time, but why not.
*** Dashel Drasher (50/1)
Won on debut, needs more here.
***** Didtheyleaveuoutto (14/1)
Perfect on trends, absent for 4 months though, possible ground worries, but sire was ok on it.
* Doc Penfro (100/1)
4th in both starts, ignore.
***** Felix Desjy (7/1)
Off for 4 months is a worry for me.
*** Herecomestheboom (50/1)
Poor showing last time, not good enough.
*** Know The Score (20/1)
13 length winner on only start. Form of that isn't enough to take this usually.
**** Mercy Mercy Me (25/1)
Win obn debut, but why off for 4 months. No likey.
*** Nestor Park (66/1)
5th to Acey Milan last time. Can't be good enough.
*** Rhinestone (8/1)
2nd is usually a no no for the bumper, but if its a small defeat in a Graded bumper, you can forgive him that. I'd still rather be on Blackbow.
*** Seddon (33/1)
Shouldn't be good enough for this. Nibbled in the market this evening.
*** Stoney Mountain (66/1)
No good enough on what we've seen so far.
**** Thebannerkingrebel (25/1)
Small field winner of 2 Class 5 bumpers. I'd have preferred him to have stepped up in class in his last run.
**** The Big Bite (25/1)
Another winning in low class bumpers. Just 1 run this season, improvement needed.
* The Flying Sofa (50/1)
Fails plenty of trends.
**** Tornado Flyer (10/1)
Short in the market. Just the one run. Form of that hardly franked. Mullins 3rd string.
**** Colreevy (25/1)
Mare. 4 lengths behind Relegate last time, ticks the other boxes. Mullins 4th string.
***** Relegate (25/1)
Mare. Ticks all the boxes, Willie Mullins 5th string, possibly. Katie Walsh won the Grade 2 that Fayonagh won last year. Can I let a Grade 2 winner go unbacked.
*** Acey Milan (8/1)
Solid win at Newbury in Listed contest last time. He's the first of the 4-year olds, who don't have a great record.
* Arch My Boy (100/1)
Not sure he ticks any box.
* Jaytrack Parkhomes (40/1)
Not up to scratch on what he's done so far.
* Volcano (40/1)
Beat Acey Milan on debut, but tables were turned last time.
Conclusion
Don't have a problem with Blackbow, Rhinestone or 4yo Acey Milan. But its Relegate for me.
Selection
Good Graded win last time, beating Rhinstone. Should run well for Willie & Patrick Mullins.
**** Carefully Selected (10/1)
Ruby Walsh on board for Mullins, but don't forget Patrick Mullins gets first dibs of the bumper rides. Only ran 17 days ago is his negative.
***** Crooks Peak (25/1)
Done all that has been asked of him, will have to step up from Listed win last time, but why not.
*** Dashel Drasher (50/1)
Won on debut, needs more here.
***** Didtheyleaveuoutto (14/1)
Perfect on trends, absent for 4 months though, possible ground worries, but sire was ok on it.
* Doc Penfro (100/1)
4th in both starts, ignore.
***** Felix Desjy (7/1)
Off for 4 months is a worry for me.
*** Herecomestheboom (50/1)
Poor showing last time, not good enough.
*** Know The Score (20/1)
13 length winner on only start. Form of that isn't enough to take this usually.
**** Mercy Mercy Me (25/1)
Win obn debut, but why off for 4 months. No likey.
*** Nestor Park (66/1)
5th to Acey Milan last time. Can't be good enough.
*** Rhinestone (8/1)
2nd is usually a no no for the bumper, but if its a small defeat in a Graded bumper, you can forgive him that. I'd still rather be on Blackbow.
*** Seddon (33/1)
Shouldn't be good enough for this. Nibbled in the market this evening.
*** Stoney Mountain (66/1)
No good enough on what we've seen so far.
**** Thebannerkingrebel (25/1)
Small field winner of 2 Class 5 bumpers. I'd have preferred him to have stepped up in class in his last run.
**** The Big Bite (25/1)
Another winning in low class bumpers. Just 1 run this season, improvement needed.
* The Flying Sofa (50/1)
Fails plenty of trends.
**** Tornado Flyer (10/1)
Short in the market. Just the one run. Form of that hardly franked. Mullins 3rd string.
**** Colreevy (25/1)
Mare. 4 lengths behind Relegate last time, ticks the other boxes. Mullins 4th string.
***** Relegate (25/1)
Mare. Ticks all the boxes, Willie Mullins 5th string, possibly. Katie Walsh won the Grade 2 that Fayonagh won last year. Can I let a Grade 2 winner go unbacked.
*** Acey Milan (8/1)
Solid win at Newbury in Listed contest last time. He's the first of the 4-year olds, who don't have a great record.
* Arch My Boy (100/1)
Not sure he ticks any box.
* Jaytrack Parkhomes (40/1)
Not up to scratch on what he's done so far.
* Volcano (40/1)
Beat Acey Milan on debut, but tables were turned last time.
Conclusion
Don't have a problem with Blackbow, Rhinestone or 4yo Acey Milan. But its Relegate for me.
Selection
RELEGATE (33/1 e/w, Paddy Power, 4 places)
1 comment:
Hi VH,
Where have your posts gone for day 3 and day 4? Was enjoying reading them and have done well so far!
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