JLT
NOVICES’ CHASE
(REGISTERED
AS THE GOLDEN MILLER NOVICES; CHASE)
2
Mile 3 Furlongs 198 Yards, Grade 2 Novice Chase
Overview
We
now have 8 renewals in the bank and some strong trends are coming to
the fore.
Last
8 Winners- average 4.8 stars
2018
**** Shattered Love (4/1)
2017
***** Yorkhill (6/4 fav)
2016
***** Black Hercules (4/1 co fav)
2015
***** Vautour (6/4 fav)
2014
***** Taquin Du Seuil (7/1)
2013
***** Benefficient (20/1)
2012
***** Sir Des Champs (3/1)
2011
**** Noble Prince (4/1)
8-Year
Trends
8/8
Won over at 2m4 or 2m5f.
8/8
Had an Adjusted RPR of 161 or more.
8/8
Were aged 6 or 7.
8/8
Had between 2 and 5 Chase runs.
8/8
Were in the top 4 all finishes.
8/8
Won a Class 1 Chase or were 2nd
in a Grade 1.
8/8
Had ran at a previous festival
7/8
Had run within the last 54 days. [Shattered
Love 76 days]
7/8
Won their last completed finish..[Noble
Prince (2nd)]
Additionally
17
of the 24 top 3 finishers had won last time out.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-2-5
6yo
2-6-29
7yo
6-6-31
8yo
0-2-11
9yo
0-0-4
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-1-14
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-3-6
Nicky
Henderson 0-3-10
Noel
Meade (Ire) 0-2-3
Contenders
*
Capeland
(28/1)
Not
good enough on what we’ve seen so far.
****
Defi Du Deuil
(3/1
fav)
5th
on debut, but bounced back since winning the Grade 1 Scilly Isles.
Turned form around with Lostintranslation
on level weights.
***
Kildisart (8/1)
Horses
in Grade 1’s from handicaps have a terrible record. His lack of
Graded experience is a worry.
***** Lostintranslation
(7/2)
Beaten
by Defi Du Seuil
last time his only blemish. Big chance.
*
Mengli
Khan (16/1)
3rd
in last years Supreme Novices Hurdle. Behind Us And Them last time
and he ran well on Tuesday, but unproven at this trip and best
watched.
****
Real Steel
(13/2)
Has
a lack of Graded form and fell on debut. Need to step up again.
***
Vinndication (15/2)
Thought
he’d run in the RSA Chase. Behind Defi
Du Seuil and
Lostintranslation
last time. Very short in the market for that defeat.
****
Voix Du Reve
(10/1)
Chase
form over shorter. Fell last time when going well. Can’t rule out.
****
Castafiore (33/1)
Better
suited for the Close Brother Handicap, did he not get in? Has won a
Grade 2, but lots to find on these terms.
****
Pravalaguna
(14/1)
Won
at Listed level, hard to evaluate, a mare did win last year, but
allowance puts her near the others and needs more.
Conclusion
No
each-way value, Mengli Khan possibly. I think Defi Du Seuil and
Lostintranslation will be at
the business end and preference is for the former.
Selections
DEFI
DU SEUIL @ 100/30, Betway, 3/1 general.
PERTEMPS
NETWORK FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE
2
Miles 7 Furlongs 213 Yards, Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
Overview
Delta
Work
did not do me any favours last year, busting a lot of preconceptions
about the race. Perhaps it’s best to focus on the young and
upcoming horses coming over from Ireland, especially Gordon Elliott’s
or Pat Kelly’s charges. We will see.
Last
10 Winners- average 3.5 stars
2018
** Delta Work (6/1)
2017
*** Presenting Percy (11/1)
2016
***** Mall Dini (14/1)
2015
***** Call The Cops (9/1)
2014
*** Fingal Bay (9/2 fav)
2013
**** Holywell (25/1)
2012
***** Cape Tribulation (14/1)
2011
** Buena Vista (20/1)
2010
** Buena Vista (16/1)
2009
**** Kayf Aramis (16/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had run within the last 61 days.
9/10
Were either British or Irish-bred. [Delta
Work last
year was]
9/10
Weight carried within 12lbs of bottom weight. [exception Fingal
Bay (15lbs)]
9/10
Had won at least a Class 3 Hurdle.[Holywell
won a Class4]
8/10
Were aged between 6 and 9. [Buena
Vista retained
his title aged 10, Delta
Work
was 5]
8/10
Between 6 and 10 Hurdle runs. [Buena
Vista was
a seasoned hurdler in both wins]
8/10
Finished Top 4 last time. [Buena
Vista the
exception both times]
7/10
Had won over 3 miles or more. [Exceptions won over 2m4f and Delta
Work’s
only win came over 2m1/2, however his class was there and he was
runner up in a 3m, Grade 2 Hurdle on his last run]
7/10
Officially rated between 133 and 142.
Additionally
15
of the last 17 winners were rated lower than 143.
12
of the last 15 winners were 10/1 or bigger, including two 50/1
winners.
12
of the last 23 winners had won last-time out from only 22% of
runners.
4
of the last 6 winners were 6 year olds.
Delta
Work became
only the second 5yo to have won in the history of the race.
Delta
Work became
the first French-bred winner in 24 years.
Just
2 of the last 22 winners had won their qualifying race.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
1-2-12
6yo
4-8-59
7yo
1-9-65
8yo
2-7-49
9yo
1-1-23
10yo
1-1-15
11yo
0-2-10
12yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
David
Pipe 2-4-20
Patrick
Kelly (Ire) 2-0-2
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-3-6
Venetia
Williams 1-1-6
Jonjo
O’Neill 1-1-15
Philp
Hobbs 1-1-19
Alan
King 0-4-7
Paul
Nicholls 0-3-13
Contenders
*
Walk
To Freedon (11/1)
**
A Toi Phil
(14/1)
*
Sire
Du Berlais (11/2
fav)
****
Boyhood
(16/1)
*
Padleyourowncanoe
(50/1)
****
First Assingment
(12/1)
***
Eminent Poet (50/1)
****
Aaron Lad
(14/1)
****
Black Mischief
(25/1)
***** Not
Many Left (14/1)
****
Coole Cody
(40/1)
****
Theclockisticking
(25/1)
****
Thermistocles
(14/1)
***** Flemcara
(20/1)
****
Cuneo
(14/1)
****
Oh Land Abloom
(40/1)
**
Wait For
Me (40/1)
***** Tobefair
(66/1)
***
Samburu Shujaa (10/1)
****
Notwhatiam
(11/1)
***** Champers
On Ice (14/1)
***
Abolitionist (18/1)
***
Aspen Colorado (50/1)
Conclusion
Sire
Du Berlais could absolutely hack up here, but he doesn’t fit our
trends, so we’ll look elsewhere. While Not Many Left is
perfect on the trends, his last run was at Huntingdon, which is the
graveyard of many a Cheltenham horse. Champers On Ice was
a good prospect a while back and at the bottom of the weights should
be considered. Boyhood
and First Assignment have
form that ties in with Paisley Park and are interesting.
Selections
Selections
BOYHOOD
@ 25/1, Marathon, 4 places, 22/1 Bet365, Ladbrkes, Betvictor,
Betfred/tote 5 places.
CHAMPERS
ON ICE @ 12/1, Bet365, Skybet 5 places
FIRST
ASSINGMENT @ 12/1, Bet365, Blacktype 5 places, general 4 places
RYANAIR
CHASE
(REGISTERED
AS THE FESTIVAL TROPHY)
2
Miles 4 Furlongs 166 Yards, Grade 1 Chase
Overview
Good
race in the past, lacking a bit of sparkle this year.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.2 stars
2018
*** Balko Des Flos (8/1)
2017
***** Un De Sceaux (7/4 fav)
2016
***** Vautour (evs fav)
2015
***** Uxizandre (16/1)
2014
***** Dynaste (3/1 fav)
2013
***** Cue Card (7/2)
2012
**** Riverside Theatre (7/2 fav)
2011
*** Albertas Run (6/1)
2010
**** Albertas Run (14/1)
2009
** Imperial Commander (6/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had finished top 2 in one of their last 2 Chase finishes.
10/10
Had won over 2m4 or 2m5f.
9/10
Aged 7-9 [Exception Albertas
Run when
winning again]
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 170 or more [OR 162]. [Imperial
Commander (165)
OR 156]
9/10
Had less than 5 runs since October. [Albertas
Run had
more in his first win]
9/10
Had run between 5 and 17 times over fences. [Albertas
Run (22)
won the previous year.]
9/10
Were rated within 7lbs of the RPR Top rated horse. The last 9
winners. [Imperial
Commander (19lbs)]
8/10
Had won at the course.
8/10
Had won a Grade 1 chase, [Imperial
Commander won
a Grade 3. Balko
Des Flos was
2nd
in a Grade 1]
Additionally
10
of the 13 winners started at 6/1 or shorter.
10
of the 11 winners since the race was upgraded in 2008 were rated 161+
on official ratings.
10
of the 11 winners since the upgrade were rated 170+ by the Racing
Post A RPR.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
0-1-3
7yo
4-6-19
8yo
3-6-38
9yo
2-3-27
10yo
1-1-12
11yo
0-1-5
12yo
0-0-4
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 2-3-11
Jonjo
O’Neill 2-1-7
Alan
King 1-2-8
Nicky
Henderson 1-2-13
Henry
De Bormhead (Ire) 1-1-4
Contenders
**
Aso
(33/1)
Decent
at a lower level. 19 Chases now and won’t be winning.
****
Balko Des Flos
(16/1)
Winner
last year, this is a tougher test, 0 from 3 this season, but 2 tries
at 3 Miles in there.
*
Charbel
(25/1)
Grade
2 winner, but found wanting at highest level.
***
Coney Island
(33/1)
Highly
rated Novice, but had injury problems. Not sure he’s got it any
more.
****
Footpad
(4/1
jtfav)
Great
2 mile Novice last season, not gone so well this season. Has won at
2m 31/2f,
unproven over this trip.
****
Frodon
(13/2)
Joint
top-rated horse, had plenty of races but nothing at the top level.
May get taken on up front, which could kill his chance.
****
Monalee (9/2)
2nd
in the RSA last year, good run last time. Likes to lead, but there’s
plenty of those in the race and with the ground drying out he may get
outpaced. Has the stamina if he’s upsides at the end.
***** Road
To Respect (4/1
jtfav)
Perfect
horse, however what we say about Monalee,
applies here. He’ll let them go mad up front, but needs to keep up
to have a chance. Drying ground benefits him, but might not play to
his stamina strengths.
*
Sub
Lieutenant (50/1)
Former
decent horse, but now too old.
***
Terrefort
(25/1)
Looked
a very good prospect at Aintree after a Festival 2nd.
But hasn’t gone on this season. To be fair he’s been losing over
3 miles to Gold Cup horses. Soft ground preferred at this trip.
**
The Storyteller
(20/1)
Very
fortunate Grade 1 Novice winner last year. Nothing since, can’t
recommend today.
***
Un De Sceaux (11/2)
Former
champ, still as good as ever, but didn’t stay on soft ground last
year, so hard to recommend a year later aged 11.
Conclusion
Looks
a good field, but lacks the sparkle of recent seasons. Plenty of pace
at the front end if required and it may pay to stick with the
top-rated 5 star horse, Road To Respect, though
drying ground over this distance is a slight concern. Terrafort
also comes into it dropping back in trip.
Selections
ROAD
TO RESPECT @ 4/1 general
TERRAFORT
@ 22/1 general, 3 places
SUN
RACING STAYERS’ HURDLE
2
Miles 7 Furlongs 213 Yards, Grade 1 Hurdle
Overview
Penhill
became the first runner from the Albert Bartlett (Spa) Novices’
Hurdle ever to win this, he also did it while being off the track for
11 months. Our bet, Sam
Spinner,
who had done what Paisley
Park
has done this season, decided to lead out and got swamped in the home
straight, although our money was done as soon as no-one else wanted
to lead after half a furlong.
Last
10 Winners- average 3.5 stars
2018
** Penhill (12/1)
2017
**** Nichols Canyon (10/1)
2016
**** Thistlecrack (evs fav)
2015
** Cole Harden (14/1)
2014
* More Of That (15/2)
2013
**** Solwhit (17/2)
2012
**** Big Buck’s (5/6 fav)
2011
**** Big Buck’s (10/11 fav)
2010
***** Big Buck’s (5/6 fav)
2009
***** Big Buck’s (6/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Aged between 6 and 9
9/10
2-4 runs since August.. [It was Penhill’s
first
run of the season]
9/10
Finished in the top 2 last time. [9 won] [Cole
Harden, 4th
in
2015]
9/10
Not out of top 2 in all hurdle finishes that season. [Cole
Harden (4th)]
8
/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 165. [Cole
Harden (162),
Penhill
(159)]
8/10
Were rated within 7lbs of the RP Top rated [More
Of That (14lbs),
Penhill
(10lbs)]
8/10
Had previous festival experience. 7 in Grade 1’s.
7/10
Had won a Graded Hurdle over 3 miles or more. [Exceptions: had won
Grade 1 and 2s over 2m4/5]
7/10
Had run in between 9 and 20 hurdle races. [Big
Buck's (23,28)
was the reigning champion twice, More
Of That had
just 4 starts]
Additionally
The
last 32 winners finished in the top 4 last time they completed.
26
of the last 29 winners were aged 6-8. Of the 3 9yos to win, 2 were
the current champion.
20
of the last 25 winners had run in the previous year's festival.
18
of the last 19 winners finished in the top 2 last time they
completed.
16
of the last 18 winners came from the top 4 in the betting.
16
of the last 17 winners had been in the top 2 over hurdles all season
(incl Penhill)
13
of the last 17 winners had won a Graded Hurdle over 3 miles or more.
No
winner came from out of the top 2 in the previous year's renewal
since 1981.
No
5-year old has ever won.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-1-5
6yo
3-9-29
7yo
3-2-39
8yo
2-3-27
9yo
2-3-17
10yo
0-1-8
11yo
0-1-4
13yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Paul
Nicholls 4-3-17
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 2-2-20
Eamon
O’Connell (Ire) 0-2-3
Alan
King 0-2-7
Nicky
Henderson 0-2-12
Contenders
*
Bacardys
(16/1)
Fell
last year and has fallen since. Thought he had a chance last year,
but one not to be trusted with form of 7F this season
*
Bapaume
(20/1)
Graded
form is over shorter and need to find plenty here.
*
Black
Op (12/1)
Good
2nd
in the Ballymore Hurdle last year. Back over the sticks after an
aborted Chase career. Grade 1 win over shorter, but 3rd
to Paisley Park last
time. First time at 3 miles that day so likely to be closer today.
*
Coquin
Mans (80/1)
Can’t
be back on what he’s shown.
***
Faugheen (9/2)
Beat
Penhill at Punchestown in April (first try at 3 miles). Fell in the 3
mile hurdle at Christmas when seen last. He’s now 11 and even 10
year olds have a poor record, but he is/was class though. Personally
I’m against on the age thing, but very little in the race to
recommend instead.
*
Keeper
Hill (125/1)
I
was waiting to back him in a handicap. Sadly outclassed in this.
**
Kilbricken Storm
(12/1)
We
all love the Storm. But Albert Bartlett winners (Penhill aside) have
a bad record in the race. Another aborted Chase career. Better chance
than most, but still opposed.
*
Man
Of Plenty (250/1)
Outclased
*
Nautical
Nitwit (150/1)
Grade
2 winner at Wetherby, but 5th
in a handicap last time. Probably shouldn’t be 150/1, but is easily
passed over on these terms.
****
Paisley Park
(13/8
fav)
Done
all that was expected of him this season. Any ground is fine. The one
to beat.
*
Petit
Mouchoir (33/1)
Lost
his way, back over hurdles this season. Hard to think he’ll stay 3
miles.
*
Sam
Spinner (40/1)
Favourite
last year, but ruined his chance when being forced to lead a dawdling
pace.
Unseated
twice this season, and best look elsewhere.
***
Supasundae (8/1)
2nd
last year. Lots of 2nd
this year over shorter. Very versatile and fair chance of going one
better.
*
The
Mighty Don (100/1)
Started
the season well, but beaten in Graded races after that.
*
Top
Notch (14/1)
Versatile
in terms of distance, ground and obstacles. Hasn’t done much over
this trip over Hurdles, but is a dark horse. On his 5 length beating
by Paisley Park
(2nd try at a trip)
*
West
Approach (33/1)
2nd
to Paisley Park
last time. Doesn’t win very often, but could run well again at big
odds.
**
Wholestone
(33/1)
Ran
on for 4th
last year, very good record at the course, but worst run for ages
last time (9th,
39 length behind Paisley Park)
*
Yanworth
(40/1)
Enigma,
shocking this season, but Grade 1 winner over shorter early in his
career. Can’t rely on him now.
Conclusion
Plenty
of 1 star horses, mainly because of how far clear the top horses are.
Paisley Park the worthy favourite. Too short for us
valuehunters obviously, Faugheen was value earlier in the
season, but isn’t now. I’m looking at Supasundae and each
way value is probably Top Notch.
Selections
SUPASUNDAE
@ 10/1 general (win)
TOP
NOTCH @ 14/1 general ,
betvictor, betfred 4 places
BROWN
ADVISORY & MERRIEBELLE
STABLE
PLATE HANDICAP CHASE
(REGISTERED
AS THE MILDMAY OF FLETE PLATE)
2
Miles 4 Furlongs 166 Yards, Grade 3 Handicap Chase
Overview
The
Irish horses have really made this their own in the last 3 seasons.
Only 1 Irish-trained winner since 1951, and now 3 in a row. They must
be respected from now on.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.1 stars
2018
**** The Storyteller (5/1 fav)
2017
***** Road To Respect (14/1)
2016
***** Empire Of Dirt (16/1)
2015
*** Darna (33/1)
2014
*** Ballynagour (12/1)
2013
***** Carrickboy (50/1)
2012
*** Salut Flo (9/2 fav)
2011
*** Holmwood Legend (25/1)
2010
***** Great Endeavour (18/1)
2009
***** Something Wells (33/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had won at least a Class 3 Chase. [Incl 6k Irish]
10/10
Had won over a distance of 2m3-2m5f.
9/10
Had less than 13 Chase starts. [Carrickboy
(17)]
9/10
Officially Rated between 135-147. [Holmwood
Legend (130)]
9/10
Carried less than 11 stone. [The
Storyteller
(11-4)]
9/10
Aged between 6 and 9. [Holmwood
Legend
(10)]
7/10
Hadn't run in either of that season's Cheltenham’s big 2m4f
Handicaps.
7/10
Had run within the last 60 days.
Additionally
26
of the last 31 winners were rated less than 142.
21
of the last 24 winners carried less than 11 stone.
20
of the last 27 winners had a top 4 finish last time out. [Only 5 in
the last 10 years)
19
of the last 27 winners had raced at a previous festival.
16
of the last 18 winners were at double-figure odds. [2 exceptions were
both fav]
Only
4 Irish trained winners since 1951. But the last 3 winners were
Irish-trained.
Only
1 of the last 18 winners had run more than 16 times over fences.
The
‘BetVictor’ Gold Cup winner (in November) hasn't won this in the
last 24 years.
The
last 5 year old winner was in 1999.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-0-2
6yo
2-4-19
7yo
2-3-44
8yo
2-12-60
9yo
3-5-47
10yo
1-5-32
11yo
1-2-15
12yo
0-0-5
13yo
0-1-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
David
Pipe 3-3-21
Venetia
Williams 2-2-19
Colm
Murphy (Ire) 1-1-2
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-1-4
Gary
Moore 0-2-4
Ferdy
Murphy 0-2-6
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-9
Jonjo
O’Neill 0-2-9
Philip
Hobbs 0-2-10
Contenders
***
Janika (9/2
fav)
*
River
Wylde (12/1)
****
Spiritofthegames
(8/1)
****
Modus
(20/1)
***
Kalondra (14/1)
**
Valseur Lido
(33/1)
****
Kauto Riko
(40/1)
****
Bigmartre
(40/1)
***
Polidam (33/1)
Ballyhill
– NON RUNNER
****
Bouvreuil
(22/1)
***** Siruh
Du Lac
(13/2)
***
Some
Buckle (25/1)
****
Templehills
(33/1)
***
Doitforhevillage (20/1)
***
Voix D’Eau (100/1)
****
Testify
(33/1)
***
Gardefort (28/1)
***** Azzerti
(16/1)
Romain
De Senam
– NON RUNNER
***** Eamon
An Cnoic
(10/1)
**
Splash Of Ginge
(28/1)
***
King’s Odyssey (22/1)
***** Didero
Vallis
(20/1)
Conclusion
Not
guaranteed to get a strong pace. Top weight Janika is
respected here, but is short enough. Plenty in with chances
Selections
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES
@ 8/1, general (win bet)
SIRUH
DU LAC @ 7/1 Betway., 13/2 general (win bet)
DIDERO
VALLIS @ 20/1 Bet365 5 places, Marathon 4 places, 18/1 general
NATIONAL
HUNT BREEDERS SUPPORTED BY TATTERSALLS MARES’
NOVICES’ HURDLE
REGISTERED
AS DAWN RUN MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE
2
Miles 179 Yards, Grade 2 Novice Hurdle
Overview
Willie
Mullins has won all 3 renewals, and our ‘trends’ have caught all
three of his short-priced favourites.
Last
3 Winners- average 5.0 stars
2018
***** Laurina (4/7 fav)
2017
***** Let’s Dance (11/8 fav)
2016
***** Limini (8/11 fav)
‘Trends’:
Taking
a line from the Supreme Novice Trends, we have something to play
with.
Aged
5-6: All
3 winners were 5, with 5 of the 6 places in the age range.
Had
won at the distance:
All 3 had won over at least 2m2f too.
Had
won a Class 1 Hurdle:
All 3 winners had won a Grade 2/3 Hurdle.
Had
run within the last 2 months:
All 3 ran within 47 days.
Has
an A.RPR of 145+ (OR 144+):
Winners had APRs of 148, 153 & 155
Finished
Top 2 Last Time:
All
3 had won their last 2 races.
Had
run over hurdles at least twice:
Winners ran 2, 9 and 4 times.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
0-0-3
5yo
3-2-19
6yo
0-3-18
7yo
0-1-5
8yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-0-8
Alan
King 0-2-3
Fergal
O’Brien 0-1-1
Alan
Fleming 0-1-1
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-1-3
Nicky
Henderson 0-1-5
Contenders
****
Posh Trish
(11/2)
Listed
winner, 74 days off? Grounds will be fine.
****
Queenofhearts
(14/1)
Improved
with every run, including a Grade 2 last time.
***
Sancta Simona (16/1)
Mark
Walsh on board, rather than Ruby
****
Sinoria
(8/1)
Not
rated as high as I’d expect. Not proven on soft ground, so far.
**
Awayinthewest
(100/1)
7
year old, not the right profile for novice races, but rated nearer
the top, than bottom.
*
Court
Maid (100/1)
10th
last time and can’t be fancied.
**
Lust For Glory
(18/1)
Beaten
by Posh Trish
2 runs ago, giving 3lbs for a 3 length beating. Can’t rule out, but
needs to improve more.
**
Presidente Line
(66/1)
Nothing
special so far, beaten on only start.
*
Tintangle
(40/1)
Beaten
in her Graded Hurdle runs.
**
Allez Dance
(40/1)
Won
only start in big field, but all 6 from that race were unplaced.
**
Black Tears
(40/1)
Getting
better, but beaten by Elfile
on
debut, when 6/5 favourite.
*
Buildmeupbuttercup
(66/1)
5th
in Grade 2 last time. Experience against the boys always a bonus. Won
in a 29 runner field on debut.
*
Concertista
(50/1)
Hurdles
debut. Best watched.
*
Dame
Du Soir (150/1)
Not
good enough on what she’s done.
*
Diamond
Gait (80/1)
Wins
in Class 4 races, but 4th
of 5 against Posh Trish in
Listed Company.
*
Eglantie
Du Seuil (40/1)
2
runs and only 3rd
last time after debut win.
*
Elfile
(28/1)
Beat
Black Tears
a short-head on debut. Prefer another run inside her.
**
Elusive Belle (12/1)
Low
level form. Short enough for that.
**
Emily Moon
(25/1)
Improved
last time after slow start over hurdles. Has big field experience.
More required today.
***
Epatante (2/1
fav)
Favourite,
but only won 2 Class 4 races. Very short, time to take her on.
****
Indefatigable
(28/1)
Beaten
a neck by Lady Buttons (4th
in Mares Hurdle on Tuesday) in open company last time. Shouldn’t be
this price.
**
My Sister Sarah
(9/1)
Market
mover from 16/1, because of Mullins/Walsh I’d imagine. They
obviously don’t have a hotpot this season. Won 2 Novice Hurdles
only.
Conclusion
Easy
to oppose the favourite here and 2 against the field are
Indefatigable
and Queenofhearts.
For
reference Indefatigable id joint RP Top-Rated and is 28/1.
Selections
QUEENOFHEARTS
@ 14/1, Paddypower, 4 places,
general, 3 places
INDEFATIGABLE
@ 28/1, Betfred/tote, Marathon,
Betvictor
FULKE
WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE
CUP AMATEUR RIDERS’ HANDICAP CHASE
3
Miles 2 Furlongs, Class 2 Handicap Chase
Overview
Ah
great, amateur riders. Always look for the best amateurs, avoid
claimers, and get the pin ready.. Still we did pick up the winner
last year so we just need to find the same pin.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.3 stars
2018
***** Missed Approach (8/1)
2017
*** Domesday Book (40/1)
2016
**** Cause Of Causes (9/2)
2015
*** The Package (9/1)
2014
***** Spring Heeled (12/1)
2013
**** Same Difference (16/1)
2012
***** Sunnyhillboy (13/2 fav)
2011
***** Junior (10/3 fav)
2010
**** Ballabriggs (9/1)
2009
***** Character Building (16/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Carried more than 11-00 in weight.
10/10
Were officially rated between 134-142.
9/10
Were rated within 7lbs of the RPR top rated horse. The last 9 winners
[Character
Building (10lbs)]
9/10
Had run within 78 Days. [The
Package (96
days) in 2015.]
9/10
Aged between 7 and 9. [The
Package (12yo).]
9/10
Had only won 1 or 2 Chases. [Ballabriggs
(3)
in 2010.]
9/10
Did not have a conditional jockey on board. Look for experienced
amateurs like Derek
O’Connor and
Jamie
Codd
(won 4 of last 9). [Exception 7lb claimer on Same
Difference
in 2013]
8/10
Had run over 2 miles 7 furlongs or more last time.
8/10
Had run in fewer than 12 chases. [Exceptions, 15 & 19]
7/10
Had won a Chase over at least 2m 71/2f
miles.
7/10
Had run in a 3m31/2f+
Chase.
Additionally
23
of the last 26 winners were aged 7 to 9.
32
of the last 33 winners had run in a handicap last time out. Cause
Of Causes ran
in a Grade 2 in 2016.
17
of the last 19 winners had run over 2m 7f or more last time out.
12
of the last 14 winner were ridden by non-claiming jockeys.
Ireland
won this in 2014 for the first time since 1984, but also won in 2016.
French-bred
horses are 0/56 since 2005.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
0-2-10
7yo
3-10-46
8yo
3-3-59
9yo
3-7-57
10yo
0-6-32
11yo
0-0-15
12yo
1-2-11
13yo
0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
David
Pipe 2-2-26
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-3-6
Jonjo
O’Neill 1-2-18
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 1-1-12
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-2-5
Tony
Martin (Ire) 0-2-5
Venetia
Williams (Ire) 0-2-8
Nicky
Henderson 0-2-11
Contenders
***
Livelovelaugh (16/1)
***
Any Second Now (13/2)
***
The Young Master (20/1)
***
Pearl Royale (50/1)
***
Out Sam (25/1)
****
Crievehill
(40/1)
***
Perfect Candidate (28/1)
****
Kilfilum Cross
(14/1)
***
Speaker Connolly (12/1)
****
Arkwrisht
(33/1)
**
No Comment
(12/1)
***
Squouateur (25/1)
****
Measureofmydreams
(4/1
fav)
****
Sumkindofking
(50/1)
***
Rogue Angel (25/1)
****
Just A Sting
(14/1)
***** Ah
Littleluck (50/1)
****
Captain Chaos
(20/1)
****
Teackle Tart
(33/1)
**
Sky Pirate
(14/1)
*
Uhlan
Bute (66/1)
***
Touch Kick (16/1)
**
Its All Guesswork
(12/1)
***
Drumconner Lad (100/1)
Conclusion
The
ground may have gone against the favourite here. Squouateur,
3rd last year is still a maiden after 14 attempts, though
couldn’t have had a worse season to bounce back from. Of the 4 star
horses, Crievehill doesn’t
look a Kim Muir horse with pleny of form over 2m 4f. Kilfilum
Cross had Derek O’Connor on
board last time when he won, but he’s elsewhere today and the horse
has has only 3 starts. Sumkindofking
is a big price considering the drying ground will help and he ran
well now upped in trip. Just A Sting
only has 3 starts as well, but has looked good in his races so far.
Ah Littleluck has
jumping problems and will be highlighted even more with an amateur on
board. Captain Chaos ran
a good 2nd
to Lake View Lad (4th
on Tuesday) and drynig ground will help him. Treackle
Tart’s trainer is bang out of
form and is hard to fancy. Tentatively selection is CAPTAIN
CHAOS, who was 9lb higher last
season
maybe
a bit on SUMKINDOFKING as well
Selections
CAPTAIN
CHAOS @ 22/1, General, 5 places
SUMKINDOFKING
@ 80/1, William Hill, Btvictor, Betfred/tote, 5 places
No comments:
Post a Comment