SKY
BET SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE
2
Miles 87 Yards, Grade 1 Novice Hurdle
Overview
Last
year’s Willie Mullins hotpot, Getabird,
was not fancied on the trends with just the 2 hurdles runs under his
belt before the festival. The last 10 winners now have 4 or 5 starts
over the sticks before winning this. With the issues of good winter
ground and the Equine Influenza problem, we may find this won’t be
the case this year. Allowances could
be made for those with 3 runs, who perhaps have been off the track a
little longer. However it may also strengthen the trends and those
who weren’t inconvenienced, coming to the fore.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.5 stars
2018
***** Summerville Boy (9/1)
2017
** Labaik (25/1)
2016
***** Altior (4/1)
2015
***** Douvan (2/1 fav)
2014
***** Vautour (7/2 jt fav)
2013
***** Champagne Fever (5/1)
2012
***** Cinders And Ashes (10/1)
2011
**** Al Ferof (10/1)
2010
**** Menorah (12/1)
2009
***** Go Native (12/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Had won over 2 miles.
10/10
Had run between 4 and 5 times over hurdles.
10/10
Were aged 5 or 6. [1 placed horse from 21 runners outside of this age
group]
9/10
Had run less than 11 times in total in their career. [Labaik
had
15, but refused to start in 6 of the last 8, flat and jumps]
9/10
Had an Adjusted Racing Post Rating (A.RPR) of at least 150. The
last 9 had an Official
Rating (OR) of 142+.
9/10
Had run within the last 67 days. [Exceptions 80 and 115 days]
9/10
Were not flat-bred horses.
8/10
Had won at least 50% of their hurdles. [Exceptions the last 2 years]
8/10
Had won last time out (LTO). [Menorah,
2nd in 2010 and Labaik
(RR),
but won his last 'race']
8/10
Were rated within 10lbs of the Top A.RPR.
8/10
Had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Hurdle. 7 of the last 8 winners had
achieved this. [Menorah
winning a Class 2 Hurdle and Labaik
a Grade 3, and refused in 2 Grade 1&2 races]
Additionally
Only
one 4-year old has won in the last 44 years.[Hors
La Loi III in
1999]
40
of the last 44 winners were aged 5 or 6.
22
of the last 24 winners had run within the last 68 days. 18 of those,
within the last 45 days.
19
of the last 22 winners had won last time.
13
of the last 15 winners had run in 4 or more hurdles races.
Flown
(blinkered) in 1992, was the last horse to win with headgear. 35
horses beaten. He’s also the last horse to win after just one
hurdle run.
Ages
(Win-Place-Runs)
4yo
0-0-2
5yo
4-14-80
6yo
6-5-61
7yo
0-1-13
8yo
0-0-5
9yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Win-Place-Runs)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-3-27
Nicky
Henderson 1-8-18
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-1-4
Tom
George 1-0-2
Paul
Nicholls 1-0-5
Contenders
***** Al
Dancer (9/2)
Fine
winner of the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle. The stats say that as he’s
yet to win a Grade 1 or 2 and he comes from a handicap that he can’t
win. Plenty of Betfair Hurdle winner come close though and he comes
here highly rated.
****
Angels
Breath (9/2)
Won
the Supreme Trial on debut and his 2nd
in the Dovecote Hurdle probably enhanced his chance here, however
with just 2 runs over hurdles coupled with that defeat last time I’ll
pass. I also want my horses in this ground to have won over at least
the trip and he’s only won over 1m71/2f
***
Aramon
(16/1)
Beaten
a head by Klassical
Dream
last time, but is a Grade 1 winner. He’s an ex-flat horse with
plenty of miles on the clock. Doesn’t fit the winners profile.
* Beaufort West (200/1)
Out
of his depth here.
* Brandon Castle (25/1)
Won
his last 3 races, but all at a lower level. Unlikely to feature.
***** Elixir
De Nutz
– NON
RUNNER
***** Felix Desjy (25/1)
Won
a Grade 2 last time back down to 2 miles. Was running, unsuccessfully
over 2 and a half. Lively outsider.
***
Grand Sancy
(12/1)
Behind
Elixir
De Nutz
and Itchy
Feet this
season, but won the Grade 2 Kingwell last time in Open Company. He’s
a second season Novice with 11 hurdle runs and has to be overlooked,
** Itchy Feet (33/1)
Missed
his prep with the Influenza outbreak and therefore is a little behind
on the trends. Beaten by Elixir
De Nutz
last time he was seen in November, but no surprise if he out ran
these odds.
***
Klassical
Dream (4/1
fav)
Flat-bred
who didn’t win that much in France, now he’s won a Grade 1, but
with 7 runs to his name. Rated fairly low by the Racing Post but has
to be respected.
**** Mister Fisher (14/1)
Seriously
considered, but does only have 3 runs. He’s just a tick off the 150
APR too. Only won over the bare 2 miles too.
* Normal Norman (200/1)
3rd
in the Dovecote Hurdle, miles behind Angels
Breath.
** The Big Bite (33/1)
Behind
Mister
Fisher
and Thomas
Darby
in December and
hasn’t been seen since. Not good enough
*
The
Flying Sofa (200/1)
Yet
to win so far and is ignored.
***
Thomas
Darby (25/1)
Not rated high enough to win and yet to race in Graded company. Beaten by Mister Fisher 2 runs ago.
Not rated high enough to win and yet to race in Graded company. Beaten by Mister Fisher 2 runs ago.
** Tokay Dokey (100/1)
Fell
early on in the Dovecote, so we’ll never know. Was 14/1 that day,
so unfancied and has to be passed over.
* Vision D’honneur (11/1)
6
lengths behind Klassical
Dream
and Aramon
last time. Not rated high enough and shouldn’t be turning that form
around here.
***** Fakir D’oudairies (11/2)
While
4 year olds don’t have a great record in the race, many are
no-hopers. This one ticks all the other boxes and with the 8lbs
allowance for 4yos, becomes top-rated.
Conclusion
Some
decent horses in this without it looking a classic. Brandon Castle
is the lone pace angle now with Elixir De Nutz absent.
The Racing Post doesn’t seem to
rate the Irish form, while the official handicapper does. The trends
seem to fall with the British horses. Every horse seems to have a
reason not to back them. With the rain that is forecast to come on
Tuesday, I definitely want to be with a horse who has winning form
over more than the bare 2 miles, whether Felix Desijy’s
stamina over much further will
help or hinder is anyone’s guess, though his Grade 1 success was on
Good ground. Al Dancer
has done nothing wrong and should be up and around. Fakir
d’oudairies may be avoiding
Sir Erec in the Triumph Hurdle (same ownership) but is worth serious
consideration.
Selection
All
bets will assume the rain has come in the morning and the ground will
be soft.
Money
has come for the Irish horses. Great stuff.
FAKIR
D’OUDAIRIES @ 13/2, Paddypower, 6/1 general
Best
horse on ratings.
FELIX
DESJY @ 28/1 e/w, Paddypower, Unibet, 25/1 general
Grade
1 winner with proven stamina. 28/1 is far too big.
RACING
POST ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY
NOVICES'
CHASE
1
Mile
7
Furlongs 199 Yards, Grade 1 Novice Chase
Overview
No
superstar hurdler this year and cases can be made for quite a few.
Chase
experience is key and Graded Chase experience an obvious advantage.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.7 stars
2018
***** Footpad (5/6 fav)
2017
***** Altior (1/4 fav)
2016
***** Douvan (1/4 fav)
2015
***** Un De Sceaux (4/6 fav)
2014
** Western Warhorse (33/1)
2013
***** Simonsig (8/15 fav)
2012
***** Sprinter Sacre (8/15 fav)
2011
***** Captain Chris (6/1)
2010
***** Sizing Europe (6/1)
2009
***** Forpadydeplasterer (8/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Top 2 in all Chase finishes.
10/10
Had run within the last 80 days.
10/10
Were not flat-bred.
9/10
Aged 6 or 7 years old. [Sizing Europe won aged 8 in 2010.]
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 160 or more. (OR 152+) [Exception: Western
Warhorse
(148), had only 1 run]
9/10
Rated within 6lbs of the RPR Top Rated. [Exception: Western
Warhorse
(23lbs) in 2014]
9/10
Ran to a Hurdles rating of 143 or more. [Exception: Western
Warhorse
130. 8 of last 9 rated 151+.]
9/10
Had won last time. [The last 9 winners]
9/10
Won a Novice Chase between 2m and 2m3f. Exception won at 2m41/2f.
8/10
Had 3/4 Chase starts. Both exceptions less.
8/10
Had a course win or had a top 4 finish at a previous festival.
Additionally
30
of the last 32 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on their last start.
26
of the last 28 winners started at 9/1 or less.
19
of the last 21 winners had not unseated/fallen in their chase career.
18
of the last 20 winners were aged 5-7.
17
of the last 19 winners had a hurdles rating of 142+,
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-0-4
6yo
4-3-28
7yo
5-10-42
8yo
1-3-12
9yo
0-0-6
10yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-1-10
Henry
de Bromhead (Ire) 1-2-7
Colin
Tizzard 0-1-1
Tom
George 0-1-3
Contenders
**
Articulum
(25/1)
Aged
9, and shouldn’t be good enough on what he’s done so far with
just the 2 starts.
**
Clondaw
Castle
(25/1)
Winning
at a lower level, more needed here.
****
Duc
Des Genievres
(6/1)
Hasn’t
done too much, but ticks a lot of the boxes. His form is over 21/2m
and they’ll surely be too quick for him here.
****
Glen
Forsa
(4/1
fav)
Put
Kalashnikov
in his place last time and has won all 3 starts, including the Grade
2 Kingmaker last time. This usually goes to a classy hurdler, and he
certainly wasn’t one of those.
***
Hardline
(5/1)
Beaten
6 lengths into 3rd
last time and has now had 6 starts. He’s all the rage in Ireland
and has halved in price in the week. If it turns up soft, his stamina
will kick in here.
***** Kalashnikov
(8/1)
Form
has taken a knock in the last 2 races, but he does tick a lot of
boxes. A nice bit of rain will help.
***
Knocknanuss
(20/1)
Fell
last time, has been running over 21/2m
as well and rain wont really help him. Also had 5 runs over fences
and is a 9yo.
***
Lalor
(11/2)
Just
2 runs over fences and well beaten last time at Sandown 3 months ago.
Definitely good enough, but needs to bounce back and bust a few
trends.
**
Ornua
(14/1)
Highly
rated, but doesn’t tick as many boxes as he should. He’s 8 with 7
chase runs so far and has been off for 3 months and didn’t win last
time. Wouldn’t be surprised if he ran well though.
***
Paloma
Blue (11/1)
Only
the 2 starts so far and beaten 13 lengths on debut. Can’t be having
him here.
**
Slate
House
(66/1)
Beaten
128 lengths in his 3 starts so far. Much, much more required here.
**
Us
And Them
(14/1)
Runner-up
to Le Richebourg and Hardline
this season. Hard to fancy.
Conclusion
Kalashnikov
is the trends horse, will like some rain too and ran really well in
the Supreme last year. But has made telling mistakes in his last 2
defeats. Everyone else has their own problems as well,
including Lalor and Hardline. Both
beaten into 3rd
last time, but both Graded Chase winners. Glen Forsa
probably the correct favourite.
Selection
Just
because of his assured stamina, HARDLINE is the pick.
Kalashnikov is too shot now although he may well run well.
HARDLINE
(11/2) Ladbrokes/Coral
ULTIMA
HANDICAP CHASE
3m
1f,
Grade 3
Handicap
Chase
Overview
Fancied
horses are coming to the fore in recent years, although I can’t
quite pick the one. Coo
Star Sivola
became the first 6 year old to win since 1994.
Last
10 Winners- average 3.8 stars
2018
**** Coo Star Sivola (5/1 fav)
2017
*** Un Temps Pour Tout (9/1)
2016
**** Un Temps Pour Tout (11/1)
2015
*** The Druids Nephew (8/1)
2014
**** Holywell (10/1)
2013
*** Golden Chieftain (28/1)
2012
*** Alfie Sherrin (14/1)
2011
***** Bensalem (5/1)
2010
***** Chief Dan George (33/1)
2009
**** Wichita Lineman (5/1 fav)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Won over 2 miles 71/2 furlongs
or more.
9/10
Aged between 6 and 9 years old. 7 were aged 7 or 8.
9/10
OR no bigger than 148. [Previous winner Un
Temps Pour Tout was
rated 148 & 155]
9/10
Had run between 2 and 5 times that season. [Golden
Chieftain racked
up 7 before winning this]
9/10
Had achieved a Chase RPR of 143. [Alfie
Sherrin was
the worst rated winner (135)]
9/10
Had run within the last 47 days. [The last 9 winners][Wichita
Lineman was
off for 94 days]
8/10
Finished in the top 3 in one of the last 2 starts. 2 winners were
unplaced in decent Hurdle races last time.
8 /10
Had run less than 10 times over fences. [None more than 14 starts.]
7/10
Carried no more than 11-03 in weight. [All 3 within the last 5
years].
Additionally
The
last 13 winners had between 2 & 7 runs that season.
19
of the last 20 winners were aged between 7 and 10.
17
of the last 19 winners had won over 3 miles or more
Only
two horses aged 11 or more have placed since 1997.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
1-3-16
7yo
2-10-41
8yo
5-5-59
9yo
1-7-53
10yo
1-2-28
11yo
0-2-16
12yo
0-0-4
13yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Jonjo
O'Neill 3-1-14
Nick
Williams 1-2-3
Neil
Mulholland 1-1-7
Colin
Tizzard 1-0-10
Nicky
Henderson 0-3-13
Lucinda
Russell 0-1-2
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-1-2
Tom
George 0-1-4
Sue
Smith 0-1-6
Paul
Nicholls 0-1-11
Contenders
**
Lake
View Lad
(20/1)
9
year old, off since Boxing Day, this top-weight is in good form, and
I won’t put you off baking him as he’ll love the ground.
*
Sizing
Codalco
(100/1)
Exposed
10 year old is far too high in the weights to win this.
**
O
O Seven
(66/1)
10th
in this last year, runs off the same mark, so similar result
expected.
**
Minella
Rocco
(8/1)
Placed
in the Gold Cup a couple of years ago, but beaten too often nowadays.
*
Activial
(40/1)
Doesn’t
look a 3 miler to me and has had a busier season than most winners.
Opposed.
*
Mister
Whitaker
(7/1)
Won
the Close Brothers Handicap last year. Up in trip in this is a risk.
I like my horses to be proven in these competitive handicaps.
**
Beware
The Bear
(14/1)
4th
last year, up 1lb from that. Stays on well but make too many mistakes
and off since New Years Day a negative, but loves the ground and has
place chances.
**
Magic
Of Light
(20/1)
Won
a Grade 2 Hurdle in January, and is in good form, a little high in
the weights trendswise, and with 13 Chase starts, a little to
experienced, but 2 starts here is too harsh. Shortlisted.
**
Royal
Vacation
(25/1)
Consistent
sort, a little too high in the weights for me but can’t rule out
completely. But I really want to oppose 9 year olds if I can.
*
Noble
Endeavor
(14/1)
Elliott/Russell
combinations must be respected, but he’s 10 now and is carrying too
much weight.
****
Crucial
Role
(20/1)
Would
have had a perfect weight for this if he hadn’t won 2 weeks ago.
Now he’s slightly too high in the weights. Very strange. Ticks all
the other boxes too and was probably a bet.
***
Calipto
(16/1)
Had
a busy year, can’t fully rule out, but ground may have gone against
him now.
***
Singlefarmpayment
(16/1)
Well
backed in 2 renewals of this, 2nd
then 5th
last year. Felt his chance has passed now.
****
Up
For Review
(7/1)
He’s
10 now, and has run poorly in both starts at the course.
****
Give
Me A Copper
(6/1
fav)
Just
1 run in 16 months, difficult to recommend and great that he’s
taking a chunk out of the market. His 3 mile win was a 2 runner
affair, so hardly awe inspiring stuff.
****
Coo
Star Sivola
(9/1)
Winner
last year on Heavy ground, up 3lbs on that this time around, Not the
same good preperation this year, off for 88 days a negative and he
hasn’t fired at all this season, beaten 109 lengths.
***
Vintage
Clouds (25/1)
Had
wind surgery and has been off since pulling up in the Welsh National.
Was 3rd
last year, but needs to step up again. Will like the mud and stays
all day. Place chance at best though.
***
General
Principle (20/1)
10
year old marathon stayer. Not really a Cheltenham horse and is
opposed.
***** Willie
Boy
(50/1)
Needs
to improve his jumping, fell on both trips to the course. But only 5
star horse in field.
**
Flying
Angel
(66/1)
Never
won as far as this and think he’s more of a speed horse. Track
doesn’t appear to suit him either.
*
Shantou
Village
(100/1)
Off
since November and out of form. Hard to see him featuring.
****
Oldgrangewood
(100/1)
Another
out of form and surely better over shorter.
****
Catamaran
De Seuil
(33/1)
Couldn’t
have jumped any worse last time at Kempton. Should be better over
shorter too.
***
Big
River (25/1)
Stays
and likes the softer ground. But out of form and been off since
December.
Conclusion
Irish
Trainers have a bad record in the race, having not won it since 2006.
Shortlisted Magic Of Light IS trained by Jessica Harrington. A
Chance is taken on Crucial Role. Maybe Dan Skelton knows how
much he’s got in hand and just wanted him in the race when winning
last time. Honourable mentions for Beware The Bear
and Lake View Lad for
placepot purposes
Selection
CRUCIAL
ROLE e/w (22/1,
Ladbrokes/Coral)
MAGIC
OF LIGHT e/w (22/1, Paddypower, 20/1 general)
UNIBET
CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY
2
Miles 87 Yards, Grade 1 Hurdle
Overview
Buveur
D’Air
aims to become the 7th
horse to win 3 Champion Hurdles, however this looks a lot stronger
renewal than his previous wins. Apple’s
Jade
looks a serious contender and Laurina
is on the upgrade and looks quality too.
.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.8 stars
Last 10 Winners- average 3.8 stars
2018
***** Buveur D'Air (4/6 fav)
2017
*** Buveur D'Air (5/1)
2016
**** Annie Power (5/2 fav)
2015
**** Faugheen (4/5 fav)
2014
**** Jezki (9/1)
2013
*** Hurricane Fly (13/8 fav)
2012
** Rock On Ruby (11/1)
2011
***** Hurricane Fly (11/4 fav)
2010
***** Binocular (9/1)
2009
**** Punjabi (22/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Had won at the distance. [The last 9 over an extended 2 miles.]
10/10
Were rated within 8lbs of the RP Top Rated horse.
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 168 or more. [OR
162+]. [Buveur
D'Air
(163) had started the 2016/17 season as a Novice Chaser]
9/10
Had between 5 and 12 Hurdle runs. [Hurricane
Fly
(19)
was a previous winner.]
9/10
Had won a Grade 1 Hurdle. [Rock
On Ruby,
just at Listed level]
8/10
Had won a Class 1 Hurdle that season, 6 won a Grade 1, 1 a Grade 2
and 2 won a Listed race. [Annie
Power had
just 1 prep run before winning]
9/10
Were aged between 6 and 8 years old. [Hurricane
Fly
(9) was a previous winner. No horse aged 10 or more has won since Sea
Pigeon in
1980 & 1981.]
8/10
Had run within the last 51 days. All ran within 79 days.
7/10
Had won last time out. Exceptions were, 2nd, 3rd and 4th in Graded
Hurdles.
Additionally
27
of the last 29 winners had won that season.
29
of the last 35 winners had won last time.
24
of the last 28 winners were from the first 5 in the betting.
23
of the last 27 winners had placed at a previous festival.
21
of the last 31 winners had won at Cheltenham.
The
only 5-year-old to win since 1985 was Katchit
in 2008.
Since
1951, only 4 winners were 9 or older. Only 2 winners were aged 10+
No
reigning Supreme Novice Winner has won since 1971.
Since
1993, only 2 winners had not run in that calendar year.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-4-28
6yo
4-7-30
7yo
4-2-23
8yo
1-4-17
9yo
1-1-7
10yo
0-1-4
11yo
0-1-4
12yo
0-0-2
13yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 4-6-23
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-5-19
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-1-1
Contenders
**
Brain
Power
(33/1)
Ran
in this 2 years ago, won a Grade 2 last time but hasn’t got the
required rating for this.
***** Buveur
D’Air
(11/4)
The
reigning duel-champion. Beaten by Verdana
Blue
this season. Should go close.
*
Espoir
D’Allen
(16/1)
Probably
comes a year too early for this 5 year old.
**
Global
Citizen
(66/1)
4th
behind Verdana
Blue
and Buveur
D’Air
at Christmas, so much more to find here.
**
Melon
(16/1)
Beaten
a length by Buveur
D’Air
last year, not in the same form this season.
***** Sharjah
(16/1)
Ryanair
Hurdle winner at Christmas, off the track since, but ticks all the
boxes. Not sure connections thought he’d be good enough as he was
running in the Galway Plate in the summer.
*
Silver
Streak
(100/1)
Beaten
by Global
Citizen and
Brain
Power
this season, this looks far too hot for him.
****
Apple’s
Jade
(15/8
fav)
Beaten
in the Mares’ Hurdle last year, but was found to be in season
after. She also went there after a break when she needs a run
beforehand. She has that now, but her front running style may set up
the race for something else.
***** Laurina
(7/2)
Not
beaten anything, however her 6 victories have been by 106 lengths.
Perfect on the trends and her if they go off too fast in front, may
set up the race for her and her proven stamina.
**
Verdana
Blue
(25/1)
Wouldn’t
want any rain, but beat Buveur
D’Air
at Christmas, ran on the All-Weather as a prep run, which is bad news
for Grade 1 horses at the Festival.
Conclusion
Apple’s
Jade likes to lead out, but maybe taken on by Global Citizen.
Paul Kealy is the Racing Post
doesn’t think he will lead, thus giving Apple’s Jade a
chance to lead them out. She’ll take a lot of pegging back if
that’s the case. Laurina hasn’t beaten anything, so far. She is
perfect on the trends and we are also forgetting the Champion. It’s
a race where I don’t want to particluarly commit myself. One of the
top 3 will win. Sharjah
looks best of the rest.
Selection
Whatever
you want. Laurina is perfect on the trends though. Buveur
D’Air’s drift may also make
him a bet tomorrow. 11/4 also too big.
OLBG
MARES’ HURDLE
(REGISTERED
AS THE DAVID NICHOLSON MARES’ HURDLE)
2
Miles 3 Furlongs, 200 Yards, Grade 1
Hurdle
Overview
The
Willie Mullins benefit continued last season, with 2 potential stars
going for the Champion Hurdle, this looks a pretty weak
renewal.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.8 stars
2018
***** Benie Des Dieux (9/2)
2017
**** Apple’s Jade (7/2)
2016
***** Vroum Vroum Mag (4/6 fav)
2015
***** Glens Melody (6/1)
2014
***** Quevega (8/11 fav)
2013
***** Quevega (8/11 fav)
2012
***** Quevega (4/7 fav)
2011
***** Quevega (5/6 fav)
2010
**** Quevega (6/4 fav)
2009
***** Quevega (2/1 fav)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Aged between 5 and 7 years old or were a previous winner. [Quevega
won
as a 8,9 & 10 year old]
10/10
Raced between 4 and 17 times over Hurdles. [4-10 hurdles with Quevega
and
a lucky Glenn’s
Melody had
more]
10/10
Rated within 14lbs of RP Top Rated. [5lbs looks more like it with 8
in that area]
10/10
Won over 2m4f or more.
10/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 156. [OR
147+]
9/10
Had won a race worth £22k.
8/10
Won last time. [Exceptions were 9th in a Grade 2 and 2nd in a Grade
1]
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
0-0-2
5yo
2-1-22
6yo
1-8-50
7yo
4-4-44
8yo
1-6-35
9yo
1-0-8
10yo
1-0-3
11yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 9-3-16
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-1-3
Alan
King 0-2-7
Harry
Fry 0-1-4
Jessica
Harrington (Ire) 0-1-7
.
Main
Contenders
**
Alletrix
(100/1)
Doesn’t
look up to the required standard.
***** Benie
Des Dieux
(5/6
fav)
Ticks
all the boxes and does win off a break. The one to beat.
*
Cap
Soleil
(33/1)
2nd
in the Mares’ Novice last year, off the track since, so not the
worst 33/1 in the world. Has won off a break.
*
Champagne
Lady
(100/1)
3rd
in
the Mares’ Novice last year, off the track since. Yet to win past 2
miles. Big ask.
*
Elimay
(20/1)
Beaten
by Good
Thyne Tara
last time on first run for Willie Mullins, step up in trip may suit.
**
Good Thyne Tara
(40/1)
Beat
Elimay
before being well beaten by Laurina at Punchestown. A 9yo now and is
overlooked.
**
Jester Jet
(33/1)
Another
9yo, who’s run 22 times over sticks. Not for me today.
*
Lackaneen
Leader (100/1)
Behind
a few of these last time and not good enough.
***
Lady
Buttons
(14/1)
Plenty
of racing in her and ultra consistent on all grounds and trips, over
fences and hurdles. Place chances.
**
Limini
(9/1)
3rd
in this 2 years ago. She’s now 8 and isn’t getting any better.
***
Mia’s Storm
(28/1)
Now
9, she’s also pretty consistent, she’s mainly been seen over 3
miles, so that has to be a worry.
*
Momella
(20/1)
A
fall and pulled-up in the last 2 races. Hard to recommend
***
Roksana
(15/2)
3rd
in Open company behind Buveur
D’Air last time. That was over 2 miles, so stepping back up will be
in her favour.
*
Slowmotion
(66/1)
Been
running over all sorts of trips and not winning. And she won’t be
winning here.
*
Stormy
Ireland
(9/1)
Beaten
by 2 Champion Hurdle contenders in the last 2 races, so 1 star is
terribly harsh, but she hasn’t won past 2m 2f and on softer ground
that’s a worry.
Conclusion
Its
hard to find anything to beat Benie Des Dieux. Literally,
nothing stands out, even in the without market.
Selection
No
bet at the moment.
CLOSE
BROTHERS NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE
2
Miles 4 Furlongs, 78 Yards, Listed Novice Chase
Overview
Usually
the tightest handicap of the meeting, the top band was raised to 145
(from 140) last year. Since the introduction of the JLT, the handicap
was hugely compressed. It’s
basically not a handicap.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.2 stars
2018
***** Mister Whitaker (13/2)
2017
*** Tully East (8/1)
2016
**** Ballyalton (12/1)
2015
**** Irish Cavalier (11/1)
2014
***** Present View (8/1)
2013
**** Rajdhani Express (16/1)
2012
*** Hunt Ball (13/2 fav)
2011
***** Divers (10/1)
2010
***** Copper Bleu (12/1)
2009
**** Chapoturgeon (8/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Had won at least a Class 3 Chase or Hurdle.
10/10
Had last run within the last 45 days.
9/10
Had finished in the top 3 last time they completed.
9/10
Had raced over fences between 3 and 5 times. [Hunt
Ball
(9)]
9/10
Hadn't won more than 2 chases. [Exception Hunt
Ball
won
6 as he went 50lbs up the ratings.]
8/10
Had not run in a Graded Chase so far. [Exceptions fell in a Grade 2
and 2nd of 3 in a Grade 3, 6th in a Grade 1.]
7/10
Aged 6 or 7. Horses aged 6 or 7. All 7 in the last 8 years. [Others
were 5, 8 & 9]
7/10
Had won over at least 2m 4f. [Exceptions won over 2m1 (twice) and
2m2]
Additionally
Only
1 horse that carried a penalty ran into a place.
Since
the start, 6 and 7 year olds have won 11 renewals from 160 runners,
all other ages are 3 from 114.
Horses
in first time head-gear have placed 6 times in the last 10 renewals.
(No such horses ran last year.)
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
1-1-12
6yo
4-7-43
7yo
3-11-75
8yo
1-7-49
9yo
1-4-17
10yo
0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 1-4-18
Paul
Nicholls 1-1-8
Philip
Hobbs 1-1-10
Gary
Moore 0-1-2
Colin
Tizzard 0-1-6
Contenders
***
Highway One O One
(12/1)
Had
6 chases and yet to win over this far. Consistent but has only run in
small fields, A good 2nd
on Trials day behind Kildisart
gives him a chance.
**
Red Indian
(20/1)
Only
won a Class 4 Chase, so plenty of improvement needed.
**
Cubomania
(11/1)
11
Chases and 4 wins in his career, so would be an unusual winner of
this, but has been well backed recently.
****
A
Plus Tard
(6/1
fav)
Got
a chance, his 2nd
in a Grade 3 last time has to be respected, even if its a negative in
this race. I don’t like that trend particularly. French form is on
bad ground.
***** Lough
Derg Spirit
(20/1)
Perfect
on trends, 25 length beating by Glen Forsa won’t seem so bad if
that one wins the Arkle. Won’t want the ground to go too soft.
***
Ben Dundee
(22/1)
Little
form to go on since his last win in November. Questions to answer
especially on soft ground.
***** Tower
Bridge
(8/1)
Former
Grade 1 winning Hurdler, but not won over fences so far. Not a
problem in this of course.
***
Militarian
(66/1)
9
year old with 3 wins in 10 runs. All negatives in this.
***
Walt
(20/1)
Won
over 3 miles last time. He’s a 2nd
Season Novice and prefers better ground. Difficult to recommend here.
****
The
Russian Doyen
(22/1)
Struggles
over this far, flattering 4 star.
***
Springtown Lake
(12/1)
75
days off the track and disappointing then. Will like the softer
ground though.
***** Roaring
Bull
(20/1)
Has
won on soft ground, but only over 2 miles. Perfect on the trends, but
ground is biggest concern.
*
Movewiththetimes
(12/1)
This
8 year old’s last 3 runs are PUF, hardly inspiring. Not won in his
6 chases and off since November.
****
Riders
Onthe Storm
(7/1)
Yet
to win past 2 miles and a way behind Hardline in a Grade 1 Chase on
Boxing Day. Short enough in the market.
***** Huntsman
Son
(25/1)
Improving
but is 9 now and only ran 10 days ago.
****
Shady
Operator
(16/1)
Only
4th
last time, but that was over 3 miles. If the ground goes boggy, that
stamina may prove crucial. Hasn’t actually won over 2m4 yet.
***** Good
Man Pat
(16/1)
3rd
in a Grade 2 last time. Hasn’t faced a big field yet. And has won
over 3 miles on heavy too, so they might be too quick for him if the
rain doesn’t come.
***
Solomn Grundy
(25/1)
9
year old with 7 starts now. Ran over 3m5 last time, so can’t
believe this will suit.
***** Quamino
(22/1)
Looks
a good profile, but been running on good ground. Not sure he’ll
stay in a bog.
***** Dell
Oro
(40/1)
Top
3 last time, but a 64 length beating behind Glen Forsa and
Kalashnikov isn’t quite what I had in mind. Another who’s been
running on Good ground.
Conclusion
Another
devilish handicap to solve. A lot of the trend horses have been
running on good ground over the winter, so anything soft or heavy
will mean a rethink. I do like A
Plus Tard,
but blimey he’s a bit short now. Good
Man Pat misses
out, form in small fields and I can’t remember the last festival
winner Alan King had.
Selections
Selections
HIGHWAY
ONE O ONE @ 12/1 general, 6 places Skybet
SHADY
OPERATOR @ 20/1 William Hill, 16/1 general.
NATIONAL
HUNT CHALLENGE CUP
AMATEUR
RIDERS’ NOVICES’ CHASE
3
Miles 7 Furlongs 170 Yards, Grade 2 Novice Chase
Overview
Rathvinden
became the first 10 year old to win for 16 years, beating our
selection, Ms
Parfois.
The quality of the horses has improved significantly over the last
few years, leading to an upgrade from a Class 2 race in 2014 to a
Grade 2 event in 2017. The last 8 renewals are the most relevant to
today’s race.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.4 stars
2018
**** Rathvinden (9/2)
2017
***** Tiger Roll (16/1)
2016
***** Minella Rocco (8/1)
2015
**** Cause Of Causes (8/1)
2014
*** Midnight Prayer (8/1)
2013
***** Back In Focus (9/4 fav)
2012
***** Teaforthree (5/1 fav)
2011
***** Chicago Grey (5/1 fav)
2010
***** Poker De Sivola (14/1)
2009
*** Tricky Trickster (11/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had raced over fences at least 3 times.
10/10
Had finished in the top 2 in a Chase over at least 2 miles 71/2
furlongs.
10/10
Had finished in the top 5 last time.
9/10
Had achieved a hurdles rating of 125 or more in their career.
[Midnight
Prayer
121 in 2014]
9/10
Had won over at least 3 miles in any sphere. [Cause
Of Causes
was
2nd the Festival before in a 3m11/2f
Chase]
8/10
Were aged between 6 and 8 years old. [Exceptions 9 & 10]
8/10
Had been off the track for between 24 and 78 days. [Exceptions 18 &
134 days]
8/10
Had raced in a Graded Chase. [Exceptions won Class 2 & 3 Chases]
8/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 154+. [The last 8. 7 of those were 159+] [OR
139+]
8/10
Had finished in the top 2 in one of their last 2 starts. [Exceptions
DNF & 5th]
8/10
Were rated within 8lbs of the RPR Top Rated horse. [Exceptions 12 &
18lbs]
Waiting
on the sidelines at this extreme trip is a Sire stat:
10/10
Were by a Sire who's stamina index was 11.7 furlongs or more. (Or
Dam’s Sire if no rating.)
Additionally
The
last 18 winners had at least 3 starts over fences.
19
of the last 20 winners had finished in the top 2 in a 3 mile Chase.
19
of the last 21 winners had finished in the top 4 in their last 2
starts.
18
of the last 19 winners has run between 4 and 8 times that season.
11
of the last 17 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.
Since
1989, only two 6 year olds had won the race (2009 and 2016)
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-0-1
6yo
2-2-21
7yo
3-9-73
8yo
3-7-54
9yo
1-1-16
10yo
1-1-8
12yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 3-0-7
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 2-3-13
Colin
Tizzard 0-2-2
Henry
Daly 1-0-3
Mouse
Morris (Ire) 0-1-3
Warren
Greatrex 0-1-4
Nicky
Henderson 0-1-4
David
Pipe 0-1-5
Contenders
***** Ballyward
(11/4
fav)
He’s
only had 2 Chase starts, that is the major stumbling block in backing
him at such a short price. If he’d got one more run inside him,
he’d be the pick. But he hasn’t.
**
Beyond The Law
(66/1)
Doesn’t
jump out as a 4 mile horse, as he’s been running over 2m5f or so.
Only ran 16 days ago and was a disappointing 6th.
Hard to recommend.
****
Chef Des Obeaux
(18/1)
Only
ran 17 days ago and has yet to race at Graded level.
*
Clondaw
Cian (200/1)
form
of 0PP300 doesn’t inspire me with any confidence.
***
Discorama (6/1)
Fell
last time, which knocks him down in the trends, but could have beaten
Ballyward.
Can’t be ruled out.
***
Gun Digger
(14/1)
Been
running over 21/2m
and is opposed.
****
Impulsive Star
(16/1)
Good
win in an open handicap last time out over 3m5f. 4th
in this last year. That experience will be very useful. Isn’t rated
as highly as most winners and is now 9 years old.
***** Jerrysback
(10/1)
5
stars, but only racing at 3 miles or more was in his Point-to-Point
career. Has to be passed over in this.
*
Johanos
(100/1)
4th
on only Chase start to date. Easily opposed.
*
Just
Your Type (40/1)
Doesn’t
win too much, and only ran 17 days ago. Another opposed.
****
Le Breuil
(14/1)
Jamie
Codd is on board. Not winning over about 2m4, so needs to prove
himself and Sire Stats say he won’t stay.
****
Mulcahys Hill
(33/1)
Not
rated high enough, and form over 3 miles is poor. Sire Stats say he
won’t stay as well.
****
Ok Corral
(10/3)
A
Favourite with only 2 Chase starts, beating only 6 horses in the
process, he has to be taken on. Although a 10 year old won last year,
I’m still opposing him on age grounds as well.
**
Plantagenet
(200/1)
Good
form at much lower levels, more required. Only ran 15 days ago.
****
Skipthecuddles
(40/1)
Found
wanting in graded company and won a match last time. More needed.
***
Warthog (100/1)
Form
is over 21/2m,
so a leap of faith required in this.
****
Whisperinthebreeze
(16/1)
Another
running over an intermediate trip, but has got placed form in his
only try at 3 m 1f. Won an open handicap last time, can’t be ruled
out.
****
Atlanta Ablaze
(14/1)
Hurdles
rating wasn’t good and only been running is Listed Mares Chases,
but is pretty experienced and should be on the shortlist. Gets a
handy 7lbs allowance.
Contenders
Experience
is a key and the 2 leading fancies have only 2 runs each. There are
holes is plenty of the others as well. Discorama fell
last time, but had a good chance of winning at the time.
Impulsive Star was 4th
last year and has been won an open company last time. Ballyward
is great on the trends apart from an important one.
Selection
IMPULSIVE
STAR @ 16/1, Bet365, Betfred, totesport, BetVictor all 4 places.
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