BALLYMORE
NOVICES’ HANDICAP HURDLE
(REGISTERED
AS THE BARING BINGHAM NOVICES’ HURDLE)
2
Miles
5
Furlongs
26 Yards, Grade 1
Novice
Hurdle
Overview
Samcro
tightened up the trends last year as FiveForThree
(**) dropped off.
Its
a strong trends race. Let’s find another Willoughby
Court. Favourite
Champ is
the oldest in the field and comes from a trials race that doesn’t
provide winners.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.9 stars
2018
***** Samro (8/11 fav)
2017
***** Willoughby Court (14/1)
2016
***** Yorkhill (3/1)
2015
**** Windsor Park (9/2)
2014
***** Faugheen (6/4 fav)
2013
***** The New One (7/2)
2012
***** Simonsig (2/1 fav)
2011
***** First Lieutenant (7/1)
2010
***** Peddler’s Cross (7/1)
2009
***** Mikael D’Haguenet (5/2 fav)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Were aged either 5 or 6.
10/10
Were rated within 9lbs of the RPR top rated.
10/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 152 or better. [OR
142+, 9 were 146+]
10/10
Had at least 2 runs over hurdles.
10/10
Had finished top 2 in a Graded Hurdle. 8 had won.
10/10
Were bred for National Hunt (Irish Point-to-Points or Bumpers or in
one case started in French Hurdles).
9/10
Had won at least 50% of their hurdle races. [Windsor
Park won 1 of 3]
9/10
Had not run at a previous festival, (ie last years bumper). [The
New One 6th in the bumper]
9/10
Had won a 2m4 or 2m5f hurdle [Peddler’s
Cross won a Point-to Point]
8/10
Had finished in the top 2 in all Hurdles so far. [Both exceptions
place 4th
in one]
Additionally
34
of the last 35 winners had finished in the top 2 last time out.
31
of the last 33 winners were from the top 6 in the betting.
25
of the last 26 winners were aged either 5 or 6.
18
of the last 20 winners were NH-bred.
No
winner aged 4 since 1991. All 21 unplaced.
No
winner aged 7+ since 1974.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
0-0-2
5yo
3-6-46
6yo
7-11-65
7yo
0-3-20
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-6-23
Mouse
Morris (Ire) 1-1-4
Ben
Pauling 1-0-2
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-0-3
Nicky
Henderson 1-0-12
Tom
George 0-1-1
Dan
Skelton 0-1-3
Contenders
***
Ask Dillon
(40/1)
No
Graded form in his 2 runs and rated accordingly.
***** Battleoverdoyen
(7/2)
Only
rated 151 by the Racing Post, and just 2 starts over hurdles. However
he has Grade 1 winning form (beating Sams
Profile
last time).
***** Beakstown
(12/1)
Grade
2 winning form, but also not rated by the RP or the handicapper this
time.
***
Brewin’upastorm
(15/2)
Is
rated higher than the previous 2, despite a 4l beating in the Challow
Hurdle by Champ
when cruising (finished 4th).
Fell last time and also looked like beating Birchdale. But looking
like winning isn’t the same as winning. So fails with only 1 win
from 3 hurdles, and is yet to win over this far. If you thought he
should have won either of those races, fell free to back him. Getaway
Trump beat him in the Challow and hasn’t franked that form at all.
***
Bright Forecast
(25/1)
All
starts over the minimum trip. Just behind Mister Fisher in the
Supreme Trial. Sire Stats don’t exactly cry out for a step up in
trip, so if its still soft I’ be amazed if he stays. Not rated to
win this. Trainer won with Willoughby Court 2 years ago.
***
Castlebawn West
(25/1)
Lacks
Graded Hurdle experience and was made to battle at Leopardstown last
time in a much lower grade.
***** Champ
(3/1
fav)
Nearly
ticks all the boxes, he’s a 7 year old. Worked hard to win the
Challow, before pulling away, fom not franked at the moment, but
won’t mind any ground.
****
City Island
(8/1)
Ran
out an easy winner last time in an Auction Novice Hurdle. Marked down
as he was disqualified at Galway in the summer over the trip. Lacks
Graded Hurdle experience buy can’t be ruled out.
**
Dunvegan
(40/1)
A
disappointing 10th
last time. Hard to recommend here.
***** Easy
Game (12/1)
Winner
of a Navan Grade 2 Hurdle in December when last seen. No winners have
come out of that race. Ground won’t be a problem, however Sire
Stats aren’t brilliant.
***
Galvin (16/1)
3
wins, all at a lower level. Hard to fancy here.
***
Jarveys Plate
(20/1)
Was
5/2 in the Ballymore Trial (where Brewin’upastorm
fell). But disappointed that day. Has only won 1 of 4 races this
season, but that was here, but overall hard to fancy.
***
Notebook (80/1)
2nd
in a Graded Hurdle last month. Yet to win over this far and rated
accordingly.
***
Sams Profile
(11/1)
2nd
to Battleoverdoyen,
yet to win over this far, yet also runner-up in a Stayers (3 mile)
hurdle this season. Racing Post doesn’t like the Irsih form so is
rated accordingly.
*
Seddon
(66/1)
12th
in the Bumper last year. Beaten by most of the Supreme Novices field
this season, stepped up in trip and a beaten favourite that day.
Definitely bred to stay this far and further. Probably shouldn’t be
this price but can’t be backed.
**
Valdieu
(66/1)
All
runs over 2 miles or so, put in his place last time in in his first
Grade 1 race.
Conclusion
The
2 favourites are the right ones, but Battleoverdoyen is
unproven on the ground and Champ is coming from the wrong race
and is the wrong age. No fun in that though. I’ve liked BEAKSTOWN
all season and I’m not deserting him at this price now.
Selection
BEAKSTOWN
@ 16/1, Ladbrokes, Coral, blacktype, Betvictor
RSA
INSURANCE NOVICES’ CHASE
3
Miles 80 Yards, Grade 1 Novice Chase
Overview
The
role of honour for this is impressive. providing many a future Gold
Cup winner. Weapon’s Amnesty, Bobs
Worth and Lord
Windermere in the last 10 renewals.
Presenting Percy
heads the betting for this year’s Gold Cup. Anyway back to the race
in focus.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.5 stars
2018
***** Presenting Percy (5/2 fav)
2017
**** Might Bite (7/2 fav)
2016
***** Blaklion (8/1)
2015
*** Don Poli (13/8 fav)
2014
***** O’Faolains Boy (12/1)
2013
*** Lord Windermere (8/1)
2012
***** Bobs Worth (9/2)
2011
***** Bostons Angel (16/1)
2010
***** Weapon’s Amnesty (10/1)
2009
***** Cooldine (9/4 fav)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Were horses bred for National Hunt racing, no flat runners here.
10/10
Were rated to within 15lbs of the RPR top rated horse.
10/10
Had been a Novice Hurdler the previous season. [Might
Bite was a 2nd season Novice Chaser,
but went chasing at the earliest opportunity]
9/10
Had finished top 2 in a Grade 1 or 2 Chase. [Might
Bite fell while cruising to victory
in the Grade 1 Feltham/Kauto Star Chase]
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 160. [Lord
Windermere (155)]
9/10
Had run within the last 39 days. [Don
Poli was off for 72 days in 2015,
the first for 50 years to win after not running that year.]
9/10
Had started between 3 and 5 Chases. [Don
Poli (2)]
9/10
Had finished in the top 2 last time. Lord
Windermere was 3rd
within ½ length of winner.
8/10
Were aged 7 years old. [Don Poli was
6, Might Bite
8]
8/10
Had won over 2m71/2f or more under rules. Exceptions: 2m3f and 2m5f
(with a 3m PtP win)]
Additionally
53
of the last 54 winners had run that year. Don
Poli, ran on 28th
December.
29
of the last 31 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.
23
of the last 25 winners had started at least 3 chases.
24
of the last 26 winners were British/Irish bred.
22
of the last 26 winners were Novice Hurdlers last season.
15
of the last 19 winners were aged 7.
No
horse older than 8 has won since 1992 [Minnehoma].
Only
3 6-year olds have won since 1978.
Only
1 5-year old has won since 1950.
No
ex-flat horse has placed since 1994.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-1-3
6yo
1-5-19
7yo
8-9-61
8yo
1-3-22
9yo
0-2-4
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 2-4-11
Rebecca
Curtis 0-1-2
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 1-0-4
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-1-4
Colin
Tizzard 0-1-4
Paul
Nicholls 0-1-10
Contenders
***
Count Meribel
(66/1)
Well
beaten in Grade 2 in December. Off since and pulled up only try over
this trip.
****
Delta Work
(5/2
fav)
Grade
1 winning Novice over 3 miles, beating Mortal
8 lengths (subsequent form of that is 0 places from 7 runners).
Ground won’t be a problem, nor will the course after his Pertemps
Hurdle win last year. A worry that he’s been off since Christmas
and he also is flat-bred, though obviously he stays this far.
****
Drovers Lane
(16/1)
Had
a wind operation and has been off since, lack of Graded chase form a
worry. Will need the ground to dry out if he’s gonna enjoy 3 miles
round here.
***** Mister
Malarky (14/1)
Solid
Grade 2 win in the Reynoldstown last time for this 6 year old. More
to find on offical ratings, but when has that every been a problem at
the festival.
****
Mortal
(14/1)
Beaten
by Delta Work
over 3 miles, but last of 6, when dropping back in trip in the Flogas
last time. That and a lack of form over the trip is a worry.
****
Now McGinty
(28/1)
Just
behind Mister Malarky
last time. This 8 year old just fails on the minimum APR. Trip/ground
not a problem, so one to consider if you like Mister
Malarky.
***
On The Blind Side
(12/1)
Just
2 runs and couldn’t have had a worse debut round here, beaten 85
lengths by Lostintranslation. Won last time in a Class 4 and that has
to be a worry at a short-ish price.
***
Santini (3/1)
Similar
to last years opposition in the Albert Bartlett, he’s only had 2
Chase starts. Beaten into 3rd
too last time, he’s a flat-bred off for 77 days. Plenty to dislike
at this price.
**
The Worlds End
(22/1)
Well
behind Santini
last time. Hard to fancy.
***** Topofthegame
(7/2)
2nd
in the Coral Cup last season, yet to win over fences, but quality
seconds behind Defi Du Seuil and La Bagua Au Roi (beat Santini/The
World’s End).
Off since that race is a negative, but goes on any ground.
***
Top Ville Ben
(33/1)
Well
beaten by Mister Malarkey/Now
McGinty
last time. Was favourite that day, but jumped left and was picked off
by the pack. Only knows one way of running and although he’s never
run here before, going this way is bound to help. He’s a flat-bred
who stayed over hurdles too long to be the type to win.
***
Drinks Interval
(100/1)
Mares
have a poor record, she’s been off since Christmas and has more
runs than most.
Conclusion
Delta
Work is a better favourite than Santini, who I just can’t
have. Topofthegame hasn’t won and is short enough, though he’s
respected. I’m taking a chance on MISTER MALARKY and
therefore Now McGinty right
in behind.
Selections
MISTER
MALARKY @ 16/1 general, 4 places betvictor
NOW
MCGINTY @ 33/1 Marathonbet, 25/1 general
CORAL
CUP HANDICAP HURDLE
2
Miles 5 Furlongs 26 Yards, Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
Overview
The
only open intermediate hurdle race for pro-jockeys at the festival.
Hard to find the winner, of course, but it does go to up and coming
horses stepping up in trip, rather than stamina-laden horses dropping
down.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.5 stars
2018
*** Bleu Berry (20/1)
2017
***** Supasundae (16/1)
2016
***** Diamond King (12/1)
2015
***** Aux Ptits Soins (9/1)
2014
***** Whisper (14/1)
2013
***** Medinas (33/1)
2012
** Son Of Flicka (16/1)
2011
***** Carlito Brigante (16/1)
2010
***** Spirit River (14/1)
2009
***** Nintieth Minute (14/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Carried no more than 15lbs than the bottom weight.
10/10
Had won at least a Class 3 hurdle or 8k race in Ireland or France.
10/10
Had run no more than 4 times that season. [Supasundae's
5
runs included a race at Punchestown on April 27th, theoretically the
season before]
10/10
Were aged between 5 and 8 years old.
9/10
Had a break of at least 24
days from the racetrack. [24-83
days] [Aux
Ptits Soins
(181 days) won in 2015]
9/10
Had only won at most 1 handicap hurdle. [Son
Of Flicka
won 2]
9/10
Had run in less than 10 hurdles.[Son
Of Flicka
(22)]
8/10
Had won between 2m11/2f
and 2m4f. [Exceptions won over just 2m]
9/10
Had won earlier in the season. [Son
Of Flicka's
record was awful (9090), Bleu
Berry
had just 1 run in 2018]
8/10
Were officially rated between 139-149. Exceptions 136 & 153]
8/10
Had a top 2 finish in 1 of their last 2 starts.
Additionally
19
of the last 23 winners carried less than 11-04.
19
of the last 25 winners had won that season.
16
of the last 18 winners had won no more than one handicap.
22
of the last 25 winners were all officially rated less than 149. [But
3 of the last 5 winners rated 150+]
Only
four horses aged older than 9 have placed since 1999.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
3-10-50
6yo
3-8-81
7yo
2-2-63
8yo
2-6-37
9yo
0-0-16
10yo
0-3-12
11yo
0-1-3
12yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 2-3-12
Nicky
Henderson 2-2-33
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 1-3-26
Paul
Nicholls 1-1-15
Dan
Skelton 0-1-2
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-1-3
Gary
Moore 0-1-3
Contenders
**
Wicklow Brave
(25/1)
Former
winner of the County Hurdle ‘back in the day’. Now a 10 year old,
this experienced top-weight shouldn’t be winning, but he was a
quality horse, and er.. um.. only 2 ½ lengths behind the Champion
Hurdle winner last time out. That was over 2 miles though, form over
further not as good.
**
Vision Des Flos
(16/1)
Trip
and ground will be fine, but high in he weights and only ran 17 days
ago.
***
William Henry
(33/1)
High
in the weights. This 10 year old was pulled up last time.
****
Scarpeta
(20/1)
Winning
form over 3 miles, this usually goes to a horse stepping up in trip,
not down. High in the weights.
***
Farclas (12/1)
Triumph
Hurdle winner last year, lost his way this year (placed 0/5). High in
weights and needs to prove he wants 2m5f.
***
Killultagh Vic
(14/1)
Has
had lots of injuries. Festival winner yonks ago, now a little old and
high in the weights. Money for him this morning.
*
Lil
Rockerfeller (40/1)
Old
favourite, won over 3 miles, but bit too old for me and again, high
in weights.
**
Diamond Cauchois
(20/1)
Off
for a year, too many runs and bit high in the weights. Drifted from
12/1 yesterday.
****
Cracking Smart
(14/1)
Been
losing in Graded hurdles so excuses for his ‘form’. Little bit
‘high in weights’. Last one I promise.
***
Monbeg Theatre
(100/1)
Too
old and experience to be winning.
****
Bleu Berry
(25/1)
Last
year’s winner. Lack of form due to running in Graded Hurdles. 5lbs
higher than last year. Chance, but maybe will find one or two better
handicapped.
****
Ballyandy
(20/1)
Been
around for ages, but still only had 8 hurdles runs. Unusually had 5
runs this season (including 2 chases). On his day he can be anything,
so can’t dismiss.
***** Brio
Conti (11/1)
Only
5 star in the race. Off for 15 months before having 2 runs last
month. Ground and trip fine. Doesn’t feel like this has been his
target all year, but respected.
***
Dancing On My Own
(16/1)
Form
boosted by a 7 length beating by Klassical
Dream
last time. He’s a maiden but has place form in big fields. First
try at past 2 miles. Interesting. [backed in from 25/1]
****
Burbank
(50/1)
Experienced,
at losing. Only win at a low level. 7th
last year in this, 2lbs better off, but can’t fancy.
****
Canadrier
(20/1)
Off
for 138 days and possible ground issues. However is a course and
distance winner. Makes handicap debut today (I don’t really that
like in Novices). Drifting (12/1 yesterday)
****
Apple’s Shakira
(16/1)
Flopped
favourite of the Triumph last season. 3rd
and pulled-up this season doesn’t inspire confidence. Off for 3
months and may not stay. Money for his this morning.
****
Knight In Dubai
(33/1)
Only
won a Class 4 and plenty of running at this trip. Second to last in
the Ballymore Hurdle last year and fell over fences here in October.
Was 16/1 yesterday.
****
Highest Sun
(20/1)
Lots
of form at 2 miles, now up 8lbs and tries this trip for the first
time. Only ran 18 days ago.
***
Tully East
(20/1)
Festival
winner over Fences. Badly out of form and is now 9.
***
Eragon De
Chanay (100/1)
7th
last year in the Fred Winter Hurdle. Had lots of running this season
and a couple of wins means he comes here in form, not sure he’s
classy enough.
****
Uradel
(5/1
fav)
Mullins
& Walsh. Ticks all the main boxes. Only 1 Hurdles run this season
(running on flat in summer) finishing 5th
when favourite. Short on what he’s done. NO TIPS in the Racing Post
Tipsbox!
****
Erick Le Rouge
(14/1)
4
wins in a row will find plenty of backers. Up from 112 to 137. Ran in
the Triumph Hurdle Trial last season so was fancied at one stage.
Only ran 18 days ago and has been running on good ground.
****
Calie Du Mesnil
(16/1)
Had
more runs than the usual winner, but only 3 in the season proper. I
do like Irish horses running well at the Galway Festival (she won).
**
Oscar Knight
(66/1)
Very
experienced and too old. Absolutely no form this season.
***
Joke Dancer
(33/1)
Solid
winning form over 2 miles. Only ran 18 months ago.
Conclusion
Obviously
we can’t be bullish about our bets in this, but I want to side with
another Supasundae rather than a Son Of Flicka. Bleu
Berry
won last year and can’t be dismissed easily. Dancing
On My Own
has franked form in the book but is unproven over this far, however
he’s by Stamina-laden sire Milan. Brio
Conti is
the 5 star horse. We haven’t even mentioned Ballyandy,
Calie Du Mesnil
and Cracking
Smart
who are all interesting on this sort of ground.
Selections
CRACKING
SMART @
14/1, Betway 6 places, Bet365, Skybet, Betvictor 5pl
DANCING
ON MY OWN @
16/1 Bet365, 14/1 general, paddypower, coral 7pl
BRIO
CONTI
@ 12/1 Skybet, totesport, blacktype.
BETWAY
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
1
Mile 7 Furlongs 199 Yards, Grade 1 Chase
Overview
The
best horse in training should win, but as yesterday show, the best
laid plans… etc
Last
10 Winners-
average 4.3 stars
2014
**** Altior (evs fav)
2017
*** Special Tiara (10/1)
2016
***** Sprinter Sacre (5/1)
2015
***** Dodging Bullets (9/2)
2014
**** Sire De Grugy (11/4 fav)
2013
***** Sprinter Sacre (1/4 fav)
2012
**** Finian’s Rainbow (4/1)
2011
**** Sizing Europe (10/1)
2010
**** Big Zeb (10/1)
2009
***** Master Minded (4/11 fav)
2008
**** Master Minded (3/1 fav)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had won over 2m1/2f
or 2m1f.
10/10
Were racing within the last 81 days. [8 ran within 53 days]
10/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 170.
10/10
Were younger than 11 years old.
10/10
Had won a Grade 1 Chase.
9/10
Had between 7 and 16 Chase starts. [Special
Tiara
had 22 starts]
9/10
Were rated within 9lbs of the RPR top rated. [Big
Zeb
was 19lbs off of the highly rated Master Minded]
8/10
Had run between 2 & 4 times in the season. [Sire
De Grugy
ran 6 times, Altior
just once after slight setbacks]
7/10
Won a Graded Chase last time out. [Exceptions were 2nd,3rd
and 5th
in Grade 1/2 races]
Additionally
32
of the last 35 winners had won over 2m2f or more, or were C&D
winners.
32
of the last 37 winners won at a single figure price.
23
of the last 34 winners were placed at a previous festival.
19
of the last 20 winners had 7 or more Chase starts.
16
of the last 17 winners were Grade 1 Chase winners.
16
of the last 17 Arkle winners to run in the following year's Champion
Chase all placed. [The pulled-up injured, Douvan,
being the exception]
15
of the last 16 champions were beaten. [Only Master
Minded retained
his title]
16
of the last 20 winners were 5/1 or shorter.
17
of the last 26 winners had won at a previous festival. (21 of last
34)
Only
1 winner aged greater than 10 since 1977.
Only
1 of the last 22 winners had run more than 4 times that season.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
1-1-5
7yo
2-3-18
8yo
2-4-26
9yo
3-2-22
10yo
2-6-14
11yo
0-3-8
12yo
0-0-2
13yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 4-1-10
Henry
De Bromhead (Ire) 2-4-11
Paul
Nicholls 2-0-13
Tom
George 0-3-6
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-2-9
Contenders
***** Altior
(2/5
fav)
Clear
favourite and a better preparation this year. If he stands up he
wins.
*
Castlegrace
Paddy (33/1)
Yet
to win at this level. Only 6 chase starts so a likely improver, but
easily ignored in this.
*
God’s
Own (33/1)
Lovely
3rd
at 40/1 last season, and still has ability at 11 years old, winning
the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter. Off since early December and with 27
Chases behind him, I’m not sure that’s gonna benefit him. Not a
bet this year.
*
Hell’s
Kitchen (33/1)
Best
form is in a Class 2 and best form over further. Easily overlooked.
***** Min
(4/1)
The
only horse to be near to Altior
on ratings. Warrants great respect. Should finish second.
*
Ordinary
World (66/1)
Behind
Min
last time. 1 win from 14 starts.
****
Politologue
(25/1)
Grade
1 winner last season at 2 miles, beaten into 4th
last year. Upped in trip this season and twice 4th
at 3 miles and 2m5f. Last year he tried to win, this season he’ll
be happy for a place and the price is pretty big.
**
Saint Calvados
(40/1)
Likely
pace angle, it killed his chance in the Arkle last season. Could
place if they let him get away.
***
Sceau Royal
(16/1)
Beaten
24 lengths by Altior in the
Tingle Creek. Beaten over hurdles by a Novice last time too. Better
chance than many of these.
Conclusion
Altior
wins, Min
2nd
and Politologue,
3rd.
Nice and easy. Grade 1 winner Politologue,
is
better value than many and if he’d ridden to place rather than win
he should get there.
Selection
Selection
POLITOLOGUE
@
25/1 general. Each-way definitely.
GLENFARCLAS
CROSS COUNTRY CHASE
3
Miles 6 Furlongs 37 Yards, Grade 2 Chase
Overview
Some
of the trends are holding up now that it's an level weight contest
(Handicap until 2016). Mainly because it’s such a unique contest
that experience of these fences and the course outweighs any weight
penalties.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.0 stars
2018
***** Tiger Roll (7/1)
2017
***** Cause Of Causes (4/1)
2016
***** Josies Orders (15/8 fav)
2015
** Rivage D’Or (16/1)
2014
**** Balthazar King (4/1)
2013
***** Big Shu (14/1)
2012
** Balthazar King (11/2)
2011
**** Sizing Australia (13/2)
2010
*** A New Story (25/1)
2009
***** Garde Champetre (7/2)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Had raced 3 or more times in the season.
9/10
Aged between 8 and 10 years old. [A
New Story
was 12]
9/10
Had won a Chase over 3 miles or more. [Sizing
Australia,
2m6f]
9/10
Had run in between 7 and 21 Chases. [A
New Story
(48)]
9/10
Had experienced between 1 and 6 Cross Country Chases in their
career. [exception debuted in 2015.]
8/10
Irish Trained. [Exception Philip
Hobbs]
8/10
Placed in a Cheltenham or Punchestown Cross Country Chase that season
or had won at a previous festival..
8/10
Top 5 last time out in a Chase. [One exception was carried out and
the other fell.]
Additionally
13
of the 14 winners had won over 3 miles or more.
13
of the 14 winners had raced no more than 5 times that season.
11
of the last 12 winners were aged 8-10.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
0-1-5
7yo
0-0-10
8yo
4-1-20
9yo
2-4-29
10yo
3-5-30
11yo
0-10-25
12yo
1-4-23
13yo
0-1-12
14yo
0-2-3
15yo
0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Enda
Bolger (Ire) 2-6-31
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 2-2-8
Henry
de Bromhead (Ire) 1-1-5
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-3-12
Emmanuel
Clayeux (Fra) 0-1-1
Contenders
**
Amazing Comedy
(28/1)
Very
expereinced with 20 runs in this field. 4th
here in December. Got 7lbs from winner, Fact
of The Matter,
that day. Not today.
***
Aubusson (66/1)
Never
gone well at the Festival and form is awful. Has to be overlooked.
****
Auvergnat
(7/1)
Rated
2nd
best and has to go close. Only fails on 1 stat. due to 8 runs over a
Cross Country course. Hardly a killer.
*
Ballycasey
(25/1)
Don’t
see the appeal myself, well beaten on his course debut.
**
Bless The Wings
(33/1)
Old-timer
at 14 with 50 starts. Runs well, but time has caught up with him.
*
Devils
Bride (100/1)
Won’t
stay the trip. Keep your money in your pocket.
****
Fact Of The Matter
(14/1)
This
is more like it. Won here in December, makes plenty of each-way
appeal. Had a wind-op since last run.
**
Hurricane Darwin
–
NON RUNNER
***
Jarob (40/1)
3rd
of 7 here in November behind Josies
Orders. Now
a 12 year old and is opposed.
***
Josies Orders (9/1)
11
years old. Not favoured in this level weights event. Former (lucky)
winner and place chance at best.
***
Kingswell Theatre (50/1)
Former
winner round here, but off for 453 days. The don’t go fast round
here, so his fitness may not be tested until the end. Hard to
recommend, but who knows. Had a wind-op since last run.
**
Tea For Two
(22/1)
7th
in the Gold Cup. Course debut, so I’m against him, but could have
the quality to place.
****
Tiger Roll
(6/5
fav)
Won
last year. Loses a point as he’s only had 2 runs this season. Last
year he was prepared for this, with the National to come, now I think
they are after the National double. The one to beat still.
*
Ultragold
(11/1)
Stepped
up in trip recently. He’s definitely better at Aintree over
shorter. Now he’s 11 and tries these fences for the first time.
*
Urgent
De Gregaine (11/1)
2nd
last year, but he was in form then. Pulled-up only start in France,
better than a one star, but now 11.
*
Vyta
Du Roc (40/1)
Can’t
remember Nicky Henderson having many in this. Decent horse a few
years ago, makes his Cross County debut here on the back of form of
PP.
Conclusion
Tiger
Roll and Auvergnat are miles clear on official ratings.
They both have ticks in all the right boxes. Josies Orders
will be popular, as a course specialist. Fact Of The Matter
has to find a bit on ratings too, but is a couple of years younger.
Selections
AUVERGNAT
@ 15/2 (win)
FACT
OF THE MATTER @ 16/1, betvictor 4
places, general 3 places
BOODLES
FRED WINTER JUVENILE
HANDICAP
HURDLE
2
Mile 87 Yards, Grade 3 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Overview
Big
priced winners abound, it’s time we found one.
Last
10 Winners- average 3.8 stars
2018
*** Veneer Of Charm (33/1)
2017
*** Flying Tiger (33/1)
2016
*** Diego Du Charmil (13/2)
2015
***** Qualando (25/1)
2014
**** Hawk High (33/1)
2013
**** Flaxen Flare (25/1)
2012
***** Une Artiste (40/1)
2011
* What A Charm (9/1)
2010
***** Sanctuaire (4/1 fav)
2009
***** Silk Affair (11/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had achieved a RPR rating of 110 or more.
9/10
Had an OR of 125-134. Exception far lower.
9/10
Had no more than 5 hurdle starts. [Flying
Tiger had
6]
9/10
Had finshed in the top 2 on one of their last 2 starts. 6 won.
9/10
Carried less than 11-03 in weight.
8/10
Had won a race.
8/10
Had run within the last 32 days (7 within 25). [Exceptions off for 53
& 133 days.]
8
/10 Had a flat rating of at least 83 (if rated). [Exceptions 70 &
79]
8/10
Were from a Group 1 winning flat sire. [Exceptions Group 3]
Additionally
12
of the 14 winners had run within 37 days.
10
of the 14 winners had just the 3 runs over hurdles.
4
of the 13 winners were fillies, and 3 places from just 19 runners.
Males: 9 wins from 281. [No fillies ran last year]
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Paul
Nicholls 3-6-18
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 2-2-12
Alan
King 0-4-16
Contenders
***
Torpillo (20/1)
Should
be too high in the weights and lacks that Grade 1 winning sire.
*
Fine
Brunello (11/1)
Too
high in the weights and yet to win over hurdles. Beaten in a Grade 1
by Fakir D’oudairies last time. Sire doesn’t fit.
***
Band Of Outlaws (5/1
fav)
Trends
don’t fancy him. Won last 2 races, that usually a bad sign. High in
weights etc.
*
Cracker
Factory (40/1)
7
runs, shit on the flat (rated 65), high in the weights. Has a 2nd
place in a Grade 2 behind Quel Destin, before being well humped by
him again. Ran on All-Weather last time (10th/13). Not for me.
*
Chief
Justice (20/1)
8
runs, fails lots of trends, weight, flat rating, etc.… just. Has
won a Grade 3 and 2nd
in a Grade 2, so 1 star is very harsh.
***
Naturelle (18/1)
French
Raider. Mainly fails the weight-test and only a Grade 3 Sire. Could
be interesting.
**
Got Trumped
(20/1)
Another
too high in the weights, would have preferred to be in better form.
Been running on good ground.
**
Fanfan Du Seuil
(14/1)
Off
for 88 days and high in the weights. All form is at a lower level.
Update: Backed in from 25/1 yesterday.
**
Beat The Judge
–
NON RUNNER
**
Our Power
(25/1)
The
last a bit too high in the weights, slight negatives in other areas,
but 4th
to Fakir D’oudairies not franked yesterday. Drifting this morning.
****
Fox Pro
(40/1)
Now
we’re getting a bit lower in the ratings. Only ran to a to a RPR of
110, on the low side. Stable won 2 years ago with another French
Import but that was a better horse (on what he’d done). Drifting
this morning.
**
Coko Beach
(11/1)
Sire
problems and nothing special in the form. In from 14/1
****
Prabeni
(25/1)
Won
last 2 races and a lower level. Britsh-bred horses don’t have a
great record in this.
****
Zizaneur
(50/1)
9
runs over hurdles his only problem. Form is in Class 4 hurdles.
Drifted from 25/1.
****
Dogon
(20/1)
6
runs not hiding from the handicapper. Pulled-up in a Grade 2.
**
Ciel De Niege
(9/1)
Off
for 6 months and yet to win. If anyone can win this, its Willie
Mullins (with Ruby). Punted in from 16/1.
***** Lethal
Steps
(15/2)
5
stars, but yet to win. Not a great RPR on what he’s done so far.
Elliott and Russell, so price is plenty short enough.
***** Star
Max (16/1)
German-bred
and bought from Germany. Got better with every race in big fields.
Since switching to JP O’Brien’s yard. Irish form on better
ground, but did win in Germany on soft/heavy.
**
Oi The Clubb Oi’s
(25/1)
Only
2 lengths behind Triumph entry, Quel Destin (Grade 2) last time in
December. However his flat form is nothing special and has been off
since that good run. Yet to win too and has been running on better
ground.
****
La Sorelita
(20/1)
Well
beaten recently, but would have got closer if she hadn’t made a
mistake 2 out. That was on good ground. Won in France on soft and
fillies have a great record in the race.
***** Praeceps
(22/1)
Flat
rating was 79. Don’t really care about that as it’s his only
‘problem’. 3rd in the Adonis behind Fusil Raffles. No form on
softer ground, but did win on Good/Soft.
**
King D’argent
(33/1)
Off
for 97 days, and not a great sire for this. Flat rating not too hot.
Difficult to see him featuring.
Conclusion
Bottom weight is 10-12, so maybe the weight won’t matter this year, however half the field is rated higher than the usual winner.
Bottom weight is 10-12, so maybe the weight won’t matter this year, however half the field is rated higher than the usual winner.
Selection
STAR
MAX @ 16/1, Bet365, skybet – 5 places
LA
SORELITA @ 22/1, Paddypower 5 places
PRAECEPS
@ 22/1, general 5 places
WEATHERBYS
CHAMPION BUMPER
2
Mile 87 Yards, Grade 1 Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race
Overview
In
the last 2 years we’ve pick out the winner, both mares who won the
Grade 2 at Leopardstown in early February. This year’s winner was
Santa
Rossa,
she
doesn’t run.
Last
10 Winners- average 3.8 stars
2018
***** Relegate (25/1)
2017
***** Fayonagh (7/1)
2016
**** Ballyandy (5/1)
2015
***** Moon Racer (9/2 fav)
2014
*** Silver Concorde (16/1)
2013
** Briar Hill (25/1)
2012
**** Champagne Fever (16/1)
2011
**** Cheltenian (14/1)
2010
*** Cue Card (40/1)
2009
***** Dunguib (9/2)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Won last time.
10/10
Hadn't raced for at least 33 days.
9/10
Had won at least half of their bumpers. [Silver
Concorde had
won 1 of his 3 runs spread over 3 seasons]
9/10
Were aged 5 or 6. [Cue
Card
was a 4 year old]
9/10
Had raced in less than 4 bumpers. [Ballyandy
(4)]
9/10
Had an A.RPR of 126 or more. [Exception had won their only start.]
7/10
Had won a bumper with 13 or more runners.
7/10
Had won a bumper worth at least £4,000.
Additionally
24
of the last 26 winners had won last time out.
20
of the last 21 winners were aged 5 or 6.
17
of the last 18 winners had won at least 50% of their bumper starts.
20
of the last 26 winners were Irish-bred.
20
of the last 26 winners had won a bumper with 14 or more runners.
19
of the last 26 winners were trained in Ireland.
18
of the last 26 winners were from the first 6 in the market.
14
of the last 17 winners had won a bumper worth £4k or more.
.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
1-2-28
5yo
5-16-146
6yo
4-2-54
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-6-41
Philip
Hobbs 1-1-8
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-0-4
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 1-0-7
Contenders
***** Abacadabras
(10/1)
Ran
out when 2nd
to Envoi Allen
last time. Wouldn’t have won.
***** Ask
For Glory (6/1)
Spot
on. Sire stats are a little low for this, but that’s not on my
trends. Backed in this morning from 9/1.
***** Envoi
Allen (7/2)
Another
Spot on with poor Sire stats (that aren’t on the trends).
****
Flic Ou Voyou
(33/1)
Slightly
fails on field size and just won a £2k bumper. Drifter from 20/1.
***
Jelski (50/1)
Not
got the desired rating and fails on field size and just a £2k bumper
win. Win was on soft though.
***** Master
Debonair (11/1)
Better,
won a Listed race beating Thyme
Hill.
The 4th,
5th,
6th,
7th
have all won since. Just fails field size but don’t care about that
(11 runners). Off since November is a bit concerning as it’s been a
mild winter.
***
Meticulous (17/2)
Didn’t
win last time (2nd
to Envoi Allen)
and hasn’t won 50% of races.
****
Sempo
(12/1)
Hasn’t
won half his races either. But did win by 15 lengths last time out.
**
Some Detail
(150/1)
Just
ran 18 days ago, not won half his races and not achieved the desired
rating yet.
**
Thor De Cerisy
(100/1)
Didn’t
win last time (8th)
and not rated high enough. Sire Index poor as well.
***
Thyme Hill (22/1)
Didn’t
win last time (just beaten by Master
Debonair)
and only won in small fields.
****
The Glancing Queen
(25/1)
Only
filly in the field, the last 2 winners were both girls.. Didn’t win
last time though.
***
Blue Sari (11/4
fav)
4
year old. 1 run. Only Mullins horse in the race. Won a small field
bumper on that start, but is was soft ground that day.
***
Cascova (50/1)
4yo,
didn’t win last time and has Sire Index problems.
Conclusion
Had
the winner, the last 2 years. No pressure like. Envoi Allen’s
form is probably the best, the horses in behind can also been
considered. British form is from is through Master Debonair.
Bumper king Willie
Mullins has just 1 runner. Blue
Sari who is fighting
favouritism. Lots of these are unproven on the soft ground. Glancing
Queen is the only filly in the
race, but lost last time.
Selection
ENVOI
ALLEN @ 9/2, Paddypower, Blacktype
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