SKY
BET SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE
2
Miles 87 Yards, Grade 1 Novice Hurdle
Overview
Last
year, Willie
Mullins’ Klassical
Dream drifted
like a barge in the run up to the race. He failed a couple of lesser
trends, but was 2 from 2 for Willie Mullins after coming over from
France. Strong Graded form still holds sway. This
years renewal looks a cracker on paper.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.4 stars
2019
**** Klassical Dream (6/1)
2018
***** Summerville Boy (9/1)
2017
** Labaik (25/1)
2016
***** Altior (4/1)
2015
***** Douvan (2/1 fav)
2014
***** Vautour (7/2 jt fav)
2013
***** Champagne Fever (5/1)
2012
***** Cinders And Ashes (10/1)
2011
**** Al Ferof (10/1)
2010
**** Menorah (12/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Had won over 2 miles.
10/10
Were aged 5 or 6. [1 placed horse from 20 runners outside of this age
group]
9/10
Had run between 4 and 5 times over hurdles. [Klassical
Dream had
7 runs (5 in France, 2 in Ireland)]
9/10
Had run less than 11 times in total in their career. [Labaik
had
15, but refused to start in 6 of the last 8, flat and jumps]
9/10
Had an Adjusted Racing Post Rating (A.RPR) of at least 150. All
had an Official Rating (OR) of 142+. [Al
Ferof,
A.RPR of 146]
9/10
Had run within the last 67 days. [Altior
(80
days]
9/10
Were not flat-bred horses. [Labaik
started on the flat, Klassical
Dream
did run on he flat as a 3 year old after Hurdles debut]
8/10
Had won last time out (LTO). [Menorah,
2nd in 2010 and Labaik
(RR),
but won his last 'race']
8/10
Were rated within 10lbs of the Top A.RPR rated horse.
8/10
Had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Hurdle. 8 of the last 9 winners had
achieved this. [Menorah
winning a Class 2 Hurdle. Labaik,
a Grade 3, had
refused in 2 Grade 1&2 races]
7/10
Had won at least 50% of their hurdles. [Exceptions the last 3 years,
2 had ‘reasons’]
Additionally
Only
one 4-year old has won in the last 45 years.[Hors
La Loi III in
1999]
41
of the last 45 winners were aged 5 or 6.
23
of the last 25 winners had run within the last 68 days. 19 of those,
within the last 45 days.
20
of the last 23 winners had won last time.
14
of the last 16 winners had run in 4 or more hurdles races.
Flown
(blinkered) in 1992, was the last horse to win with headgear. 35
horses beaten. He’s also the last horse to win after just one
hurdle run.
Ages
(Win-Place-Runs)
4yo
0-0-3
5yo
5-13-76
6yo
5-6-61
7yo
0-1-12
8yo
0-0-4
9yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Win-Place-Runs)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-3-27
Nicky
Henderson 1-8-19
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-1-6
Henry
De Bromhead (Ire) 0-1-4
Contenders
*****
Abacadabras
(11/2)
Only
beaten by Envoi Allen (Ballymore favourite) so far this season and
has Grade 1 winning form in the book. 4th in the Bumper
last season, so track should be fine, only slight worry is he’s
been off since Christmas, when he really need to be racing.
****
Allart
(18/1)
2
wins at a low level since a fall on debut, however the Supreme
winners of late have has at least 4 hurdles runs. Lack of Graded form
means he’s overlooked here.
*****
Asterion
Forlonge
(11/4
jt fav)
Cruised
to victories in both starts, the last by 9 length in a Grade 1 at the
Dublin Festival. 2 runs is a negative in the hustle and bustle of
this race.
*
Berkshire
Royal (33/1)
Not
seen a hurdle in public, so difficult to assess on that. You can’t
dismiss a Willie Mullins horse, but he’s been off the track for
nearly 2 years, so I will oppose him here.
***
Captain Guinness
(14/1)
Probably
needed another run, after he was just touched off in a Grade 2 on 2nd
and last start.
***
Chantry House
(13/2)
Beat
a next time Grade 2 winner on debut here, getting 6lbs. (Stolen
Silver
went on to win the Haydock Trail, beating Edwardstown
by
a neck.). A lack of Graded form and just the 2 runs are negatives.
***
Edwardstone
(16/1)
3
runs so far. Beat Fiddlerontheroof
on debut, and then the decent Harry
Senior
next time. Before beaten by Stolen
Silver
above.
***
Elixir D’Ainay
(22/1)
Front-runner
and looks all about stamina, with recent runs over further, you’d
imagine it would have to be a bog to be hitting the frame here.
*****
Fiddlerontheroof
(13/2)
Beaten
by horses on first 2 starts, but won last time in the Grade 1
Tolworth, at Sandown, by 6 lengths. Perfect trendswise. Will be up
with the pace in this hot contest.
*
Hollow
Sound (150/1)
Will
have to improve on debut 3rd.
Unlikely to do so in this.
*
Jabbaar
(200/1)
Should
be outclassed here.
**
Mario
Du Pail (100/1)
Beaten
in a Class4 last time, and not good enough.
****
Shishkin
(11/4
jt fav)
Fell
on debut, before 2 solid wins at a lower level. Drops off with a lack
of Graded win and just 3 starts. Ran at Huntingdon last time (as
Nicky Henderson has done with Get
Me Out Of Here
and Buveur
D’Air
before getting beaten in this race.) He may be quality, but he’s no
price in this.
***
Soviet Pimpernel
(33/1)
Won
a Grade 3 event last time, after a 20 length beating by Envoi
Allen
and Abacadabra
in a hot Grade 1. He may improve for that on softer ground here, but
will find a few too hot.
***
Whatsnotoknow
(100/1)
Better
than some at a price, but form is on better ground. Just not good
enough.
**
Heaven
Help Us
(100/1)
Beaten
by Abacadabras
2 runs ago (8 lengths). Only 3rd
in a Mares Listed event last time. Not good enough.
Conclusion
Looks
a hot heat with plenty of dross in it as well, lets hope they don’t
get in the way.
Probably
best to keep it simple and not look for a double figure price.
Selection
There
looks a lot of pace on in this and while Fiddlerontheroof is
perfect on trends, he may get taken on up front. I’ll oppose
Asteron Forlonge on his lack of experience and Shishkin
on lack of Graded form. ABACADABRAS (11/2) may have run into
the best 2 mile novice around this season, and without Envoi Allen
in this race, his
waited
with style is chosen to pick off the rest with a clear run.
Bookies
Offers
William
Hill offering 7 places for this race. Skybet giving a free
bet of up to £10 if your horse loses.
RACING
POST ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY
NOVICES'
CHASE
1
Mile 7 Furlongs 199 Yards, Grade 1 Novice Chase
Overview
Last
year’s race wasn’t a classic, the worthy winner has been dreadful
this season. Only 3 horses have won since (none of the first 7). This
year’s looks the same with only a couple of horses showing Arkle
winning form.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.5 stars
2019
*** Duc Des Genievres (5/1)
2018
***** Footpad (5/6 fav)
2017
***** Altior (1/4 fav)
2016
***** Douvan (1/4 fav)
2015
***** Un De Sceaux (4/6 fav)
2014
** Western Warhorse (33/1)
2013
***** Simonsig (8/15 fav)
2012
***** Sprinter Sacre (8/15 fav)
2011
***** Captain Chris (6/1)
2010
***** Sizing Europe (6/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Had run within the last 80 days.
10/10
Were not flat-bred horses.
10/10
Had won last time.
9/10
Top 2 in all Chase finishes.[Exception: Duc
Des Genievres
(3rd)]
9/10
Aged 6 or 7 years old. [Sizing
Europe won,
aged 8, in 2010.]
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 163 or more. (OR 151+) [Western
Warhorse
(148), but had only 1 chase
start]
9/10
Rated within 6lbs of the RPR Top Rated. [Western
Warhorse
(23lbs) in 2014]
9/10
Ran to a Hurdles rating of 149 or more. [Western
Warhorse
130]
8/10
Won a Novice Chase between 2m and 2m3f. Both exception won at 2m4 &
2m41/2f.
8/10
Had 3/4 Chase starts. Both exceptions less.
7/10
Had a course win or had a top 3 finish at a previous festival.
Additionally
31
of the last 33 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on their last start.
27
of the last 28 winners started at 9/1 or less.
20
of the last 22 winners had not unseated/fallen in their chase career.
19
of the last 21 winners were aged 5-7.
18
of the last 20 winners had a hurdles rating of 142+,
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-0-3
6yo
5-4-24
7yo
4-9-41
8yo
1-2-11
9yo
0-1-8
10yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-1-10
Henry
de Bromhead (Ire) 1-2-9
Joseph
O’Brien (Ire) 0-1-1
Contenders
***
Al Dancer
(16/1)
4
runs in small fields, been running in the right races, but just not
good enough so far.
***
Brewinupastorm
(11/2)
Off
the track too long, and no Graded form in his 2 runs. I'm not a fan at
this price.
**
Cash
Back
(6/1)
Ran
Notebook
to less than a length in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown, but he an 8
year old, and hasn’t experience of the track.
****
Esprit
Du Large (12/1)
Ticks
plenty of boxes, but has been off for 3 months. Winner of the Grade
1, Henry VIII Chase at Sandown, when last seen. Wasn’t a great
hurdler (only 3 in this race hit that trend this year). Plenty of
winners of this have stamina over further, and this could be on his
side here.
*
Fakir
D’Oudaries (4/1)
Only
a 5 year old, and looked great on first 2 starts, winning a Grade 1
by 22 lengths, but ran into Notebook
last time, getting 7lbs which he won’t get here. 1 star is very
harsh, but place chances at best.
**
Global
Citizen
(12/1)
Good
hurdler, and has beaten Rough Vif on his last run in December.
****
Notebook
(3/1
fav)
Hasn’t
done anything wrong so far. He wasn’t anything special over
hurdles, and his 12th
in the Ballymore last year (50/1 shot) means he has to prove it at
Cheltenham. Been very edgy before the start of his races, but the
best horse in this on what we’ve seen.
*
Our
Merlin (100/1)
Won
his only start in a handicap, and they have a poor record in Grade
1’s here. Easy to pass over.
***
Rouge Vif
(14/1)
Getting
better with every race, including a Grade 2 win last time. Also a
Grade 2 winner over hurdles, but last of 4 on first spin round here
on 2nd
start. Both wins have come on good to soft, with both his defeats on
soft.
***
Maire Banrigh
(11/1)
8
year old. She ran at Huntingdon on last start, but has won all 4 of
her races. Not sure she’s beaten anything though and this will be a
lot tougher.
***
Put The Kettle On
(18/1)
Won
the Arkle Trial in November (beating Al Dancer). Off since and
need more to win this.
Conclusion
There
looks to be a lot of pace on in this. The Arkle is usually a smaller
field so being up with the pace hasn’t been a problem, though the
went off far too fast in Footpad’s Arkle. I don’t think
you want to be too far behind though so some interesting decisions
will have to be made by the jockeys. It’s not a vintage renewal
this year.
Selection
NOTEBOOK
has done all that is asked of him so far, he’ll have earplugs in at
the start to calm him down. 3/1 is a fair price.
ULTIMA
HANDICAP CHASE
3m
1f, Grade 3 Handicap Chase
Overview
The
first handicap of the festival and the trends are opposing the
favourite Vinndication. Its a race where previous festival
form, especially in this race, is a big plus. Lovely stuff.
Last
10 Winners- average 3.9 stars
2019
*** Beware The Bear (10/1)
2018
***** Coo Star Sivola (5/1 fav)
2017
**** Un Temps Pour Tout (9/1)
2016
***** Un Temps Pour Tout (11/1)
2015
*** The Druids Nephew (8/1)
2014
***** Holywell (10/1)
2013
** Golden Chieftain (28/1)
2012
*** Alfie Sherrin (14/1)
2011
***** Bensalem (5/1)
2010
**** Chief Dan George (33/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Won over 2 miles 71/2
furlongs or more.
9/10
Aged between 6 and 9 years old [The last 9 winners.]
9/10
Had achieved a Chase RPR of 143. [Alfie
Sherrin was
the lowest
rated winner (135)]
9/10
Had run within the last 47 days. [Beware
The Bear was
off for 70 days having won here on New Year’s Day]
9/10
Had
run at a previous Festival.
[Exception: Golden
Chieftain.]
8/10
OR no bigger than 148. [Previous winner Un
Temps Pour Tout (155)
& Beware
The Bear
(151)]
8/10
Finished in the top 3 in one of the last 2 starts. 2 winners were
unplaced in decent Hurdle races last time.
8/10
Had run less than 10 times over fences. [None more than 14 starts.]
Additionally
The
last 14 winners had between 2 & 7 runs that season.
20
of the last 21 winners were aged between 7 and 10.
18
of the last 20 winners had won over 3 miles or more.
Only
two horses, aged 11 or more, have placed since 1997.
No
Irish-Trained winner since 2006. Only 2 since 1967.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
1-3-15
7yo
2-9-43
8yo
4-4-59
9yo
2-9-61
10yo
1-2-24
11yo
0-2-14
12yo
0-0-4
13yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Jonjo
O'Neill 2-1-13
Nicky
Henderson 1-3-13
Neil
Mulholland 1-1-8
Alan
King 1-1-8
Colin
Tizzard 1-0-12
Lucinda
Russell 0-2-3
Sue
Smith 0-2-7
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-1-4
Philip
Hobbs 0-1-4
Tom
George 0-1-6
Contenders
**
Vinndication
(6/1 fav)
Its
a race where a recent run is a major plus, he’s had just 1 run this
season and is too high in the weights after an 8lb rise for his win
in November.
***
Brave Eagle (20/1)
Another
off the track for over 3 months, and is high in the weights. His run
was disappointing in the Martin Pipe when he ran here in 2018.
*
Cepage
(16/1)
No
form over 3 miles and a few too many runs for this.
****
Vintage
Clouds (16/1)
Up
a few lbs and now 10, but placed the last 2 years, so a good run can
be expected. Can’t see him winning now.
*****
Mister
Malarky
(9/1)
He’d
have a lovely weight if he hadn’t won last time. Ticks all of the
boxes apart from that. He’s
been a hard horse to get right, and to win 2 in a9 row would be some
feat.
****
Kildisart
(8/1)
Consistent
without placing, needs help from the handicapper.
***
Discorama (8/1)
2nd
in the 4 miler last year, but has yet to win over 3 miles (won only
once so far). Been off since Christmas (and that was a hurdle), so
short enough in this.
***
Who Dares Wins (10/1)
Novice
Chasing after a decent flat career, so would be an unusual winner.
Lack of any form over this far means he’ll be passed over.
***
Atlanta Ablaze (22/1)
She
got pummelled 45 lengths last time, but steps back up to a preferred
3 miles. Seems to struggle in big fields, and has to be ignored.
*
Activial
(20/1)
Too
old (at 10) and out of form recently. Form is over shorter and
shouldn’t be winning)
*****
Mulcahys
Hill
(16/1)
Fell,
when tired in the 4 miler last year. Ticks all the right boxes, but
doesn’t want it drying out too much.
****
Burbank
(20/1)
Disappointed
in the Coral Cup last season and hasn’t shown a liking for 3 miles
yet.
***
Cogry (25/1)
Old
timer, who is ultra consistent. 33 runs now and if he was going to
win, it would have been 2 years ago when he was 11th.
Place chance though.
**
Townshend
(40/1)
Been
running ok, but with only 1 run so far this season, and no form here,
its hard to make a case for him today.
***
Cobra De Mai (16/1)
He’s
has a poor season, but is dropping down the handicap to a winning
weight. He’s had a lot of runs and no experience of the festival in
all these years.
***
Big River (25/1)
Now
a 10 year old, he’s better than a 3 star. Proven stamina and 4th
last year.
****
The
Conditional (9/1)
Had
a Gold Cup entry. That may have been a bit of a leap, but another who
is ultra consistent at this trip. He has no festival experience, but
won here in October (over C & D) and is a lovely weight.
*
Elwood
(16/1)
Had
a lot of runs this season, and is Irish-trained (poor record). Been
running well in Graded Chases over the sea, so not unproven at he
trip yet, but can’t recommend.
*
Soupy
Soups (33/1)
Plenty
of runs this season and in his career. 4 months off and no festival
experience.
****
Quarenta
(25/1)
Ticks
plenty of boxes. No festival experience and only visits were poor
over hurdles.
***
No Comment (20/1)
No
winning form at this trip, but has run well at previous festivals, so
no surprise to see him 5th
or 6th
here.
General
Principle
– non runner
*
Vivas
(66/1)
3lbs
out of the handicap. Shouldn’t be troubling the scorers here. No
for at this trip and basically not good enough on what he’s shown
us.
***
Ice Cool Champs (100/1)
4lbs
out of the handicap. Fares a little better but, not good enough as
well.
Conclusion
Obviously
its a hard race, but THE
CONDITIONAL,
looks far too big a price at 9/1 here. He has to go close, surely.
The other I’m picking is MULCAHYS
HILL,
who looks the tight profile, lets hope it does rain on monday to help
him out. Other who ran well last year are Vintage
Clouds
and Big
River.
Selections
THE
CONDITIONAL
is 9/1 at the moment with Bet365 and William Hill
MULCAHYS
HILL
is 25/1 e/w at Coral and William Hill (5 places at moment).
UNIBET
CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY
2
Miles 87 Yards, Grade 1 Hurdle
Overview
Espoir
D’Allen,
was a terrible advert for the trends, being only the 2nd
five year old to win in 34 years. There were many under-performances
and an early fall by the champion, but he won very easily in the end.
The 15 length victory being the largest in the race’s history. This
year’s renewal looks especially open - ie terrible - without the
new champion, who sadly died in the summer.
.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.7 stars
Last 10 Winners- average 3.7 stars
2019
* Espoir D’Allen (16/1)
2018
***** Buveur D'Air (4/6 fav)
2017
**** Buveur D'Air (5/1)
2016
**** Annie Power (5/2 fav)
2015
**** Faugheen (4/5 fav)
2014
**** Jezki (9/1)
2013
*** Hurricane Fly (13/8 fav)
2012
** Rock On Ruby (11/1)
2011
***** Hurricane Fly (11/4 fav)
2010
***** Binocular (9/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Had won at the distance.
9/10
Were rated within 8lbs of the RP Top Rated horse. [Espoir
D’Allen
(17lbs)]
9/10
Had between 5 and 12 Hurdle runs. [Hurricane
Fly
(19) was a previous winner.]
9/10
Had won a Class 1 Hurdle that season, 6 won a Grade 1. [Annie
Power had
just 1 prep run before winning]
8/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 169 or more. [9/10 OR 162+]. [Buveur
D’Air
(was Novice Chasing) and Espoir
D’Allen]
8/10
Had won a Grade 1 Hurdle. [Exceptions: Grade 3 & Listed]
8/10
Were aged between 6 and 8 years old. [Hurricane
Fly
(9) was a previous winner, Espoir
D’Allen
(5)]
8/10
Had run within the last 51 days. All ran within 79 days.
8/10
Had won last time out. [Exceptions were 2nd &
4th in Grade 1 Hurdles.]
Additionally
28
of the last 30 winners had won that season.
30
of the last 36 winners had won last time.
25
of the last 29 winners were from the first 5 in the betting.
23
of the last 28 winners had placed at a previous festival.
21
of the last 32 winners had won at Cheltenham.
Only
4 9
year-olds
have
won since 1951.
Sea
Pigeon
was 10 & 11
in
1980 & 1981. [Aged
10 and older are 0/28 since then]
Only
2 5 year-olds have won since 1985. From
102 runners.
No
reigning Supreme Novice Winner has won since 1971.
Since
1993, only 2 winners had not run in that calendar year.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
1-2-23
6yo
3-8-28
7yo
4-3-22
8yo
1-4-18
9yo
1-1-6
10yo
0-1-3
11yo
0-1-2
13yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-6-21
Nicky
Henderson 3-5-23
Gavin
Cromwell (Ire) 1-0-1
Jessica
Harrington (Ire)
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-6
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-1-2
Evan
Williams 0-1-2
Henry
De Bromhead (Ire) 0-1-3
Contenders
*
Ballyandy
(16/1)
Been
around for ages and not ran in this before (3rd
in Coral Cup last season).
Can’t see him winning now aged 9, but
did win a Grade 2 last time.
**
Call
Me Lord (20/1)
Beaten
last time out, no excuses either. Won the International Hurdle
(beating
Ballyandy)
here
but falls
short
on the
trends.
****
Cilaos
Emery (6/1)
Back
from an good novice chasing career (won G3 & G2 from 3 runs) as
this is such a poor renewal. Won the Novice Champion Hurdle 3 seasons
ago,. Fails perfection as his only hurdle run of the season (won a
Grade 3, beating Darasso
by 9 lengths) so his RPR isn’t as high as it needs to be.
**
Coeur Sublime
(14/1)
Only
a 5 year old (hmmm) and had wind surgery since last run (explains
absence), but short of top class at moment. 2nd
to Pentland
Hills
in Triumph Hurdle last season. Well beaten by Sharjah
and Petit
Mouchoir
at Christmas.
***
Cornerstone Lad (33/1)
Shocked
Buveur
D’Air
in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, ran
well in the Champion Hurdle Trial, when only just beaten by Ballyandy
and Pentland
Hills. Can't
be ruled out on ground he’ll relish..
**
Darasso
(40/1)
Not
good enough even in an event this open. Beaten by a few of these this
season.
***
Darver
Star (11/1)
Ran
really well at Leopardstown, going down to Honeysuckle
in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Hasn’t won too much so far but is
only a novice and has plenty of stamina, so could be staying on at
the end.
*
Fusil
Raffles (14/1)
Hasn’t
been seen since pulling up at Christmas, Juvenile Grade 1 winner and
won a Grade 2 this season. He’s only 5 so this experience will do
him well for the future if he’s as good as he looks.
*
Gumball (66/1)
Too
high for handicaps now, outclassed here.
*
Le Patriote (100/1)
Similar
profile to Gumball, and outclassed here.
*
Not So Sleepy (25/1)
Former
top class flat handicapper (won on Derby Day). Routed the field at
Ascot in December. Flat run in the Betfair Hurdle was down to the
standing start, and could be anything. May get taken on for lead with
Petit
Mouchoir. Fails
lots of the trends, but you never know.
*
Pentland Hills
(5/1)
Triumph
winner, could make it back to back five year old winners. However,
hasn’t done the business in his races so far, even
though he’s been cruising, so wind operation could sort it all out.
I want
him onside as he’s better than most of these.
**
Petit
Mouchoir (25/1)
Placed
in the race 3 years ago, before a novice chasing career didn’t take
off. Back for more but doesn’t win.
***
Sharjah
(10/1)
Too
bad to be true in the Irish Champion Hurdle (6th,
beaten 32 lengths). Brought down by
Buveur D’Air’s
fall last year, so plenty to prove at the track (8th
in 2018 Supreme)
*
Silver Streak
(20/1)
3rd
last year, consistent
this year, but still not ticking the right boxes. Open race and could
hit the frame again, but will need plenty to go right.
*
Supasundae
(10/1)
Now
10, and has good course form (won Coral Cup in 2017 and 2nd
in a Stayers Hurdle.) Also has top class form over 2 miles. Age is
always a barrier and was only 4th
in the Irish Champion behind Honeysuckle in only run of season. Better
than a one star of course and has place chances.
****
Epatante
(7/2fav)
Not
put a foot wrong all season, done what a Champion Hurdler would do.
Been off since Christmas Hurdle win is a negative, and only run at
course was 9th
in last years Mares Novices’ Hurdle when favourite, but trainer
puts that down to horse flu jab.
Conclusion
Interesting
to note that no horse in the race reaches the pre-race threshold that
8 of the last 10 winners had. An APR of 169+. Can’t put you off
anything, but EPATANTE
ticks more boxes than most. CILAOS
EMERY
has come back from a fruitful novice chasing career to be
supplemented for this and these are the only 2 bullets I’ll fire at
the race.
Selections
EPATANTE,
generally available at 7/2
CILAOS
EMERY is
7/1 with William Hill.
CLOSE
BROTHERS
MARES’ HURDLE
(REGISTERED
AS THE DAVID NICHOLSON MARES’ HURDLE)
2
Miles 3 Furlongs, 200 Yards, Grade 1 Hurdle
Overview
The
Willie Mullins benefit, would have had its 10th
winner in the 12 runnings of the race, but Benie
Des Dieux
did an “Annie
Power” and
with no 2nd
string sitting in behind, Roksana,
for
Dan Skelton,
scooped the prize. The
trends may still be skewed due to Quevega featuring 5 times, but
Mullins still runs his best mares here.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.6 stars
2019
*** Roksana (10/1)
2018
***** Benie Des Dieux (9/2)
2017
**** Apple’s Jade (7/2)
2016
***** Vroum Vroum Mag (4/6 fav)
2015
***** Glens Melody (6/1)
2014
***** Quevega (8/11 fav)
2013
***** Quevega (8/11 fav)
2012
***** Quevega (4/7 fav)
2011
***** Quevega (5/6 fav)
2010
**** Quevega (6/4 fav)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Aged between 5 and 7 years old or were a previous winner. [Quevega
won
as a 8,9 & 10 year old]
10/10
Raced between 4 and 17 times over Hurdles. [4-10 hurdles without
Quevega
and
a lucky Glenn’s
Melody.]
10/10
Rated within 14lbs of RP Top Rated. [9/10 Top Rated if the fallers
had stood up.]
10/10
Won over 2m4f or more.
10/10
Had won a race worth £22k.
10/10
Were either French or Irish-bred.
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 156. [OR 147+] [Roksana
153/142]
7/10
Won last time.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
0-0-2
5yo
2-1-22
6yo
1-8-50
7yo
4-4-44
8yo
1-6-35
9yo
1-0-8
10yo
1-0-3
11yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 8-5-20
Dan
Skelton 1-0-4
.
Contenders
*****
Benie
Des Dieux
(4/6
fav)
Worthy
favourite, a little older than I’d like, but best horse in the race
on ratings
*
Cap
Soleil
(66/1)
Outclassed
*
Crossgalesfamegame
(100/1)
Outclassed
*
Desaray
Girl
(100/1)
Outclassed
**
Elfile
(20/1)
Could
run into a place. But can’t win.
****
Honeysuckle
(9/4)
Up
and coming mare with plenty in her favour, has a little to find with
Benie
De Dieux,
but still improvement in her.
*
Lady
Buttons
(16/1)
Now
10 and could have run in the Champion Chase or other handicaps.
Plenty to find with the best of these. 4th
last year.
**
Popong
(100/1)
Sure
to be outclassed.
*****
Roksana
(9/1)
Lucky
to win last year, needs something similar to happen to win this year.
*****
Stormy
Ireland
(12/1)
2nd
last year, will be there or there abouts, but plenty to find with the
top 2 in the market.
Conclusion
A
much smaller field than normal, mainly because of the front 2 in the
market. Can’t see past BENIE DE DIEUX at this trip.
Honeysuckle for the forecast.
Selection
No
bet
NORTHERN
TRUST COMPANY
NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE
2
Miles 4 Furlongs, 78 Yards, Listed Novice Chase
Overview
A
Plus Tard
was a 4 star fancy last year, but has been regraded to 2 stars. This
sort of handicap, still in its infancy, is sure to be every changing.
Remember these are up and coming, in-form, Novices.
Not
quite good enough to run in the JLT, but luckily falling within the
correct
OR to run in
this easier contest. The Mares Chase (pencilled in for 2021) may well
replace this race, forcing more horses into the JLT/Marsh
or other Grade 1 Novice Chases.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.8 stars
2019
** A Plus Tard (5/1 fav)
2018
***** Mister Whitaker (13/2)
2017
*** Tully East (8/1)
2016
**** Ballyalton (12/1)
2015
**** Irish Cavalier (11/1)
2014
***** Present View (8/1)
2013
**** Rajdhani Express (16/1)
2012
*** Hunt Ball (13/2 fav)
2011
***** Divers (10/1)
2010
***** Copper Bleu (12/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Had won at least a Class 3 Chase or Hurdle.
10/10
Had last run within the last 59 days.
9/10
Had finished in the top 3 last time they completed. [Rajdhani
Express
was 7th]
9/10
Had raced over fences between 3 and 5 times. [Hunt
Ball
(9)]
9/10
Hadn't won more than 2 chases. [Hunt
Ball
won 6 as he went 50lbs up the ratings.]
7/10
Had not run in a Graded Chase so far. [3 of the last 4 had.]
7/10
Aged 6 or 7. [Others were 5, 8 & 9]
7/10
Had won over at least 2m 4f.
Additionally
Only
1 horse that carried a penalty ran into a place.
Since
the start, 6 &
7 year olds have won 11 renewals (and 26 places) from 174 runners,
all other ages are 4 from 120 (19
places).
Horses
in first time head-gear have placed 7 times in the last 11 renewals.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
1-1-12
6yo
4-7-47
7yo
3-12-71
8yo
1-6-47
9yo
1-4-19
10yo
0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 1-4-18
Colin
Tizzard 0-2-7
Noel
Meade (0-1-2)
Dan
Skelton 0-1-3
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-1-7
Venitia
Williams 0-1-8
Contenders
****
Precious
Cargo
(12/1)
Ticks
plenty of boxes, but no winning for at the distance a big worry, on
soft ground.
***
Hold The Note
(15/2)
Yet
to win anything special, and fails some trends by just a little.
****
Espoir
De Guye
(11/1)
Being
off for 80 days is a negative and has won just shy of the distance.
**
Torpillo
(12/1)
4th
and 5th
in out of form in this contest, and is not quite the age bracket I’m
after. Also more of a 2 miler.
****
Knight
In Dubai
(20/1)
Ticks
lots of boxes but yet to win a Class 3 or above race.
****
Jarveys
Plate
(33/1)
terrible
run last time, in fact out of the frame on last 3 starts.
*****
Champagne
Mystery
(25/1)
More
like it, perfect on the trends. Consistent as well, but untested in
big fields.
*****
Imperial
Aura
(9/2
fav)
Rock
solid form behind Simply
The Betts
here last time. Stamina not an issue.
****
Champagne
Court
(14/1)
5th
(21 lengths) in the Simply
The Betts
race, not enough pull in the weights to turn that around. Ticks the
rest of the boxes though.
***
Galvin
(7/1)
Off
for 3 months and form is at 2 miles.
***
Paint The Dream
(20/1)
Ludlow
is another poor performing prep run track, 5th
there doesn’t help matters.
****
Highest
Sun
(20/1)
Well
beaten the last 2 runs. Winning form over 3 miles, and none at this
trip.
***
Mellow Ben
(40/1)
Another
well beaten in last 2 starts. Look elsewhere.
****
Earlofthecotswolds
(25/1)
3
months is a long time off in this race, not sure he’ll be ready for
it, but plenty to like about him otherwise.
****
Beakstown
(12/1)
Grade
2 winning hurdler, and in his 3 chases has lost to Sam
Spinner,
Champ
and Mister
Fisher,
so hot company indeed. Similar to ‘The
Earl’
above, off for 3 months is not a positive here.
***
Mitchouka
(33/1)
Busy
this season and winning form is at 2 miles, though has raced over 3
miles at the end if his hurdling career (7th
and 16th).
****
Daly
Tiger (25/1)
Lack
of 2m4f form is a worry, but was 3rd
in a Graded Chase over the trip.
**
Lord
Schnitzel
(28/1)
No
wins of any description in his career. Difficult to recommend.
**
De
Plotting Shed
(40/1)
Punted
in favourite in this 2 years ago. Broke his duck in the summer,
beating Mellow Ben. Now a 10 year old with 14 chase starts, his time
has gone.
**
Trainwreck
(11/1)
Good
run over 2m5f last time, but busy this season, and is now 8.
***
Whatmore
(16/1) - Reserve.
*****
Sensulano
(20/1)
- Reserve. Interesting if she ran.
Conclusion
A
tough ‘handicap’ to solve. Just 7lbs between top and bottom.
Although the early winners hadn’t contested Graded Chases, 3 of the
last 4 had. Being considered good enough to enter then
run against
some
classy horses can’t be a bad thing, and I think that trend will
switch round soon.
IMPERIAL AURA
(9/2 fav) ran in a good race at Cheltenham last time. CHAMPAGNE
MYSTERY
(25/1) can make the frame. SENSULANO
has
decent form if a miracle let her in and she would also be a
bet.
Selections
Selections
IMPERIAL
AURA
@ 5/1 general, bigger on the day, I’d imagine.
CHAMPAGNE
MYSTERY
@ 33/1 with Ladbrokes. At least 5 places recommended.
NATIONAL
HUNT CHALLENGE CUP
AMATEUR
RIDERS’ NOVICES’ CHASE
3
Miles 5 Furlongs 201 Yards, Grade 2 Novice Chase
Overview
Its
now 9 renewals since the quality of runners started improving. No
more plodders! Last year, two horses managed to get round without
incident, but they’ve now chopped of 2 furlongs off the distance.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.5 stars
2019
**** Le
Breuil (14/1)
2018
**** Rathvinden (9/2)
2017
***** Tiger Roll (16/1)
2016
***** Minella Rocco (8/1)
2015
**** Cause Of Causes (8/1)
2014
*** Midnight Prayer (8/1)
2013
***** Back In Focus (9/4 fav)
2012
***** Teaforthree (5/1 fav)
2011
***** Chicago Grey (5/1 fav)
2010
***** Poker De Sivola (14/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had raced over fences at least 3 times.
10/10
Had finished in the top 5 last time.
10/10
Had finished in the top 2 in a Chase over at least 2 miles 71/2
furlongs. [Le
Breuil
was 3rd]
9/10
Had achieved a hurdles rating of 133 or more in their career.
[Midnight
Prayer
121 in 2014]
9/10
Had raced in a Graded Chase. [Exception: Midnight
Prayer won
a Class 3 Chase]
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 154+. [The last 9. 7 of those were 159+] [OR
139+]
9/10
Were rated within 9lbs of the RPR Top Rated horse. [Midnight
Prayer 12lbs]
8/10
Had won over at least 3 miles in any sphere. [Exceptions
were placed only]
8/10
Were aged between 6 and 8 years old. [Exceptions 9 & 10]
8/10
Had been off the track for between 24 and 78 days. [Exceptions 18 &
134 days]
8/10
Had finished in the top 2 in one of their last 2 starts. [Exceptions
DNF & 5th]
Waiting
on the sidelines at this extreme trip is a Sire stat:
10/10
Were by a Sire who's stamina index was 11.5 furlongs or more. (Or
Dam’s Sire if no rating.)
Additionally
The
last 19 winners had at least 3 starts over fences.
19
of the last 20 winners has run between 4 and 8 times that season.
20
of the last 22 winners had finished in the top 4 in their last 2
starts.
19
of the last 21 winners had finished in the top 2 in a 3 mile Chase.
11
of the last 18 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.
Since
1989, only two 6 year olds had won the race (2009 and 2016)
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-0-1
6yo
1-3-19
7yo
4-10-77
8yo
3-5-50
9yo
1-1-18
10yo
1-1-7
12yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 3-0-8
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 2-3-14
Colin
Tizzard 0-2-2
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-1-9
Contenders
*
Anteros
(100/1)
This
12 year old fails plenty of trends.
*****
Carefully
Selected
(7/4
fav)
Perfection.
Bred to stay. Very short in the market. Has 3 runs, I’d actually
prefer more.
**
Clondaw
Cian
(66/1)
4th
last year, or last of 4 as I’d prefer it. Benn not winnig lots of
chases since.
****
Forza
Milan
(8/1)
Ticks
lots of boxes, but still a maiden and has plenty to find with the top
rated pair. Top amateur on board.
**
Lamanver
Pippin
(16/1)
Was
an average hurdler and hasn’t done too much over fences. Just the 2
starts too and off for 4 months. All negative to his chances in this.
*****
Lord
Du Mesnil
(7/1)
Been
running in some top staying handicaps out of novice company,
including 3rd
in the Grand National trial at Haydock. On the shortlist.
*****
Newtide
(9/1)
Just
2 starts (won both) makes him a risky proposition. Passes all the
other trends.
**
Ocean
Cove
(50/1)
Another
with just the 2 runs over fences. No graded form means he’s had
little chance to improve his rating, so can’t be recommended here.
****
Ravenhill
(11/2)
Jamie
Codd
on board shaves a few points off his price. Yet to run in a Graded
Chase, like so many recent winners, he’s also been off for ages on
the back of a fall last time out. He’s 10, though Rathvinden,
2 years ago, was also 10.
***
Redzor
(50/1)
Needs
to improve to feature here.
***
Smoking
Gun
(25/1)
9th
in the Thyestes at Gowran Park in January is ok. Beat Early
Doors
before
that and has a chance.
*
Some
Can Dance (100/1)
Clearly
not good enough on what he’s shown so far.
***
Springfield
Fox
(15/2)
Ran
just 18 days ago. 2 starts and 2 wins. More needed here and is passed
over.
****
The
Hollow Ginge
(25/1)
Much
better terms with Lord
Du Mesnil
today. Outside chance.
Contenders
The
favourite, Carefully
Selected
is short enough in the market. LORD
DU MESNIL
is preferred with experience in open staying handicaps a big
positive. Smoking Gun, the best of the outsiders.
Selection
LORD
DU MESNIL
@ 7/1
general. Possibly bigger on the day.
No comments:
Post a Comment