BALLYMORE
NOVICES’ HURDLE
(REGISTERED
AS THE BARING BINGHAM NOVICES’ HURDLE)
2
Miles 5 Furlongs, Grade 1 Novice Hurdle
Overview
A
quality renewal, with the winner usually going on to better things.
Not many
Last
10 Winners- average 4.9 stars
2019
***** City
Island
(8/1)
2018
***** Samcro (8/11 fav)
2017
***** Willoughby Court (14/1)
2016
***** Yorkhill (3/1)
2015
**** Windsor Park (9/2)
2014
***** Faugheen (6/4 fav)
2013
***** The New One (7/2)
2012
***** Simonsig (2/1 fav)
2011
***** First Lieutenant (7/1)
2010
***** Peddler’s Cross (7/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Were aged either 5 or 6.
10/10
Were rated within 8lbs of the RPR top rated.
10/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 152 or better. [OR 142+, 9 were 146+]
10/10
Had between
2 and 4 runs
over hurdles.
10/10
Were bred for National Hunt (Irish Point-to-Points or Bumpers or in
one case started in French Hurdles).
9/10
Had finished top 2 in a Graded Hurdle. 7 had won.
9/10
Had won at least 50% of their hurdle races. [Windsor
Park
won 1 of 3]
9/10
Had not run at a previous festival, (ie last years bumper). [The
New One 6th
in the bumper]
9/10
Had won a 2m4 or 2m5f hurdle [Peddler’s
Cross won
a Point-to Point]
8/10
Had finished in the top 2 in all Hurdles so far. [Both exceptions
place 4th
in one]
Additionally
35
of the last 36 winners had finished in the top 2 last time out.
32
of the last 34 winners were from the top 6 in the betting.
26
of the last 27 winners were aged either 5 or 6.
19
of the last 21 winners were NH-bred.
No
winner aged 4 since 1991. All 21 unplaced.
No
winner aged 7+ since 1974.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
0-0-1
5yo
2-7-45
6yo
8-9-69
7yo
0-4-20
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 2-6-24
Ben
Pauling 1-1-3
Nicky
Henderson 1-1-12
Martin
Brassil (Ire) 1-0-1
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-0-5
Dan
Skelton 0-1-4
Contenders
***
Decor
Irlandais
(66/1)
Shouldn’t
be good enough on what he’s shown this far.
*****
Easywork
(22/1)
Perfect
on trends, but his sire suggests he may not stay the trip. A 9
length, 2nd
to Asterion
Forlonge
over 2 miles at the Dublin Festival. Won easily on heavy, over 2m4f,
the time before (no winners from that race) and maybe he’s avoiding
him in the Supreme.
*****
Envoi
Allen
(5/4
fav)
Should
be in the Supreme in my eyes. Sire index of 8.8 isn’t great. Won a
Naas Grade 1 over this distance. But on much better ground. Fails the
no festival experience stat, having won the bumper, but I won’t
hold that against him, but I think he can get beat here.
**
Getaway
Fred
(100/1)
Nothing
at this level so far, and shouldn’t be winning this.
***
Longhouse
Poet
(12/1)
Beaten
by Envoi
Allen over
2m4 at Naas (7 lengths). Fails a few trends ans he hasn’t won at
the top level and doesn’t win too often. This is probably his race,
but can’t see him being the one who turns over the favourite.
****
Mossy
Fen
(33/1)
Another,
who should find this more to his liking. A 7 length beating over 3
miles here at Cheltenham, where he has his excuses, All his winning
over this distance, so not ruled out.
**
Shakem
Up’Arry
(66/1)
Will
appreciate the step up to 2m5f and beyond, but with all his running
at 2 miles, he hasn’t shown himself as good enough to win this so
far.
*
Shan
Blue
(50/1)
Beaten
by Mossy
Fen,
difficult to see him turning that round today.
**
Son
Of Camas
(50/1)
Did
ok in a Grade 1 over 2 miles at Sandown (3rd of 7).
Avoiding
Fiddlerontheroof
more likely, as he doesn’t seen to be bred for this.
****
Sporting
John
(3/1)
Unproven
over this far, but bred to stay, and no Graded form. Short in the
market for that, but no ruled out.
****
The
Big Breakaway
(6/1)
2
starts is fine, but no Graded form, so difficult to assess and he’s
short enough in the market.
***
The
Big Getaway
(6/1)
Learnt
very quickly after debut 4th
to win impressively last time. No graded form, and yet to win over
this far, yet. Another short for what he’s achieved.
Conclusion
If
we want to take on Envoi
Allen,
we need to find something to take him on with. Lots of front-runners
here, so someone’s gonna have to cede the lead. Tempted by MOSSY
FEN
at a big price.
Selection
MOSSY
FEN @
50/1
e/w, William Hill
RSA
INSURANCE NOVICES’ CHASE
3
Miles 80 Yards, Grade 1 Novice Chase
Overview
This
is a race where a few have a bit to prove. Its a pointer to future
Gold Cup winners,
Last
10 Winners- average 4.5 stars
2019
***** Topofthegame
(4/1)
2018
***** Presenting Percy (5/2 fav)
2017
**** Might Bite (7/2 fav)
2016
***** Blaklion (8/1)
2015
*** Don Poli (13/8 fav)
2014
***** O’Faolains Boy (12/1)
2013
*** Lord Windermere (8/1)
2012
***** Bobs Worth (9/2)
2011
***** Bostons Angel (16/1)
2010
***** Weapon’s Amnesty (10/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Were horses bred for National Hunt racing, no flat runners here.
10/10
Were rated to within 15lbs of the RPR top rated horse.
10/10
Had been a Novice Hurdler the previous season. [Might
Bite &
Topofthegame
were 2nd season Novice Chasers, but went chasing at the earliest
opportunity]
9/10
Had finished top 2 in a Grade 1 or 2 Chase. [Might
Bite fell
when
cruising to victory in the Grade 1 Feltham/Kauto Star Chase]
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 160. [Lord
Windermere (155)][All
OR 144+]
9/10
Had started between 3 and 5 Chases. [Don
Poli (2)]
9/10
Had finished in the top 2 last time. [Lord
Windermere was
3rd
within
½ length of winner.]
9/10
Had won over 2m71/2f
or more under rules. [Lord
Windermere,
2m3f]
8/10
Had run within the last 39 days. [Don
Poli was
off for 72 days in 2015, the first for 50 years to win after not
running that year. Then Topofthegame
(77days)]
8/10
Were aged 7 years old. [Don
Poli was
6, Might
Bite
8]
Sire
stat:
10/10
Were by a Sire who's stamina index was 11.0 furlongs or more. (Or
Dam’s Sire if no rating.)
Additionally
53
of the last 55 winners had run that year.
30
of the last 32 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.
25
of the last 27 winners were British/Irish bred.
24
of the last 26 winners had started at least 3 chases.
22
of the last 27 winners were Novice Hurdlers last season.
16
of the last 20 winners were aged 7.
No
horse older than 8 has won since 1992 [Minnehoma].
Only
3 6-year olds have won since 1978.
Only
1 5-year old has won since 1950.
Delta
Work
is the only ex-flat
horse to
place since 1994.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-1-3
6yo
1-5-19
7yo
8-9-61
8yo
1-3-22
9yo
0-2-4
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 2-4-11
Henry
De Bromhead (Ire) 0-1-3
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-1-4
Colin
Tizzard 0-1-4
Contenders
***
Allaho
(9/2)
French-bred.
His 2 starts have been over shorter and not at Graded level, though
should stay after placing behind Minella
Indo
in novice staying hurdles last season.. He’s also a 6 year old.
Can’t be having him on what he’s done so far.
**
Aye
Right
(50/1)
Just
2 starts. Fell on debut when going ok. Won a match race the next
time. Difficult to assess, but can’t be backed today.
*****
Battleoverdoyen
(12/1)
Tired
fall over inadequate trip last time not ideal preparation. Looks a
bit soft to me.. Won 2 Graded Chases earlier in season, in small
fields. Pulled-up in the Ballymore last year so something to prove
round here.
***
Castlebawn West
(100/1)
Trip
may be a problem. 4th
in the Battleoverdoyen
fall race, and not exactly staying on.
****
Champ
(7/2
jt fav)
Not
gone right for him this season, solid debut, then next time, almost
went the wrong side in the run in (didn’t jump welleither), then
fell 2 out while cruising last time. Really needs another run to iron
out the mistakes but didn’t get it.
*****
Copperhead
(9/2)
Won
a Grade 2 last time after winning 2 handicaps. Stamina not an issue,
but he’s another young un, aged 6
****
Easy
Game
(12/1)
French-Bred,
Stamina an issue here however he was staying on behind Faugheen
(beating Castlebawn
West
and Battleoverdoyen).
Only 2 starts so far, beating Allaho
on debut.
***
Minella Indo
(7/2
jtfav)
Another
with starts. But bust Albert Bartlett trends last year with that
stat. Is all about stamina, but no Graded Chases so far and is
actually the 2nd
lowest rated horse in the race. Not to put you off or anything.
****
Pym
(40/1)
Pulled
up last time, made a few mistakes. Another without decent Graded
form. 4 stars is a bit generous.
***
Slate
House
(16/1)
3
mile Grade 1 winner of the Feltham on Boxing Day. Pulled up in open
company in the Cotswold, so can be forgiven that. This 8 year old is
a bit of a hype horse, with plenty of action under his belt. Could be
anything on his day, but
Conclusion
Champ
is surely the best horse in the race, but can he jump? Its a wide
open event
Selections
CORAL
CUP HANDICAP HURDLE
2
Miles 5 Furlongs 26 Yards, Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
Overview
William
Henry
came from well off the pace to pip
the
well-named
Wicklow
Brave, debunking
anything I’d written about the race. I’ll say it again though.
“The
only open intermediate hurdle race for pro-jockeys at the festival.
Hard to find the winner, of course, but it does go to up and coming
horses stepping up in trip, rather than stamina-laden horses dropping
down.” Weight doesn’t seem to be an issue any more, so don’t
get put off by 11 stone plus.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.2 stars
2019
** William
Henry
(28/1)
2018
*** Bleu Berry (20/1)
2017
***** Supasundae (16/1)
2016
***** Diamond King (12/1)
2015
***** Aux Ptits Soins (9/1)
2014
***** Whisper (14/1)
2013
***** Medinas (33/1)
2012
** Son Of Flicka (16/1)
2011
***** Carlito Brigante (16/1)
2010
***** Spirit River (14/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had won at least a Class 3 hurdle or 8k race in Ireland or France.
10/10
Had run no more than 4 times that season. [Supasundae's
5
runs included a race at Punchestown on April 27th, which
is really
the season before]
10/10
Carried no more than 15lbs than the bottom weight. [William
Henry
was 19lbs above].
9/10
Were aged between 5 and 8 years old.
9/10
Had a break of at least 24 days from the racetrack. [24-80 days] [Aux
Ptits Soins
(181 days) won in 2015]
9/10
Had only won, at most, 1 handicap hurdle. [Son
Of Flicka
won 2]
9/10
Had run in less than 10 hurdles.[Son
Of Flicka
(22)]
8/10
Had won between 2m11/2f
and 2m5f. [Exceptions won over just 2m]
7/10
Had won earlier in the season. [2 exceptions had one run]
7/10
Were officially rated between 139-149. Exceptions 136, 151 & 153]
7/10
Had a top 2 finish in 1 of their last 2 starts.
Additionally
17
of the last 19 winners had won no more than one handicap.
22
of the last 26 winners were all officially rated less than 149. [But
4 of the last 6 winners rated 150+]
19
of the last 24 winners carried less than 11-04.
19
of the last 26 winners had won that season.
Five
horses aged older than 9 have placed since 1999. [But all within the
last 10 years]
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
3-8-48
6yo
2-7-77
7yo
2-2-65
8yo
2-8-68
9yo
1-0-14
10yo
0-4-16
11yo
0-1-3
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 3-2-33
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 2-3-14
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 1-4-32
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-4
Noel
Meade (Ire) 0-2-5
Nick
Gifford 0-1-2
Dan
Skelton 0-1-3
Gary
Moore 0-1-3
Contenders
***
Kitfenora
(20/1)
Top
weight, always ging to count against you, but normal winners are very
lightly raced and he’s 12 runs and 3 handicap wins to his name.
****
Cracking
Smart
(16/1)
Won
a Grade 2 last time out. I tipped him last year, won’t make that
mistake again. He finished 11th, but with a conditional
jockey on board, I’d rather look elsewhere. He’s had a few more
starts and a busy season this time.
****
Eglantine
Du Seuil
(20/1)
Shock
winner of the Mares’ Novice Hurdle last season. Hasn’t won since,
but put up a decent run in her last race. No winning form at this
sort of trip.
****
Bachasson
(14/1)
Just
1 run in a year, not bad behind Cracking Smart, but the wrong
age for me.
****
Ballymoy
(25/1)
Been
chasing, back over hurdles last time out. Hasn’t won this season
and is in the handicapper grip still.
*****
Franco
De Port
(12/1)
More
like it. Really does have the sort of profile you are looking for in
this. Mullins and Townend partner up, so definitely respected.
*****
Top
Moon
(33/1)
Been
a bit busy this season, and disappointing last time.
****
Birchdale
(10/1)
Just
the one run this season (a chase), and off for nearly 4 months, so
obvious issues for him to overcome.
****
Canardier
(10/1)
Good
run in this last season. Up 4 lbs since, but another who’s been
chasing and is left alone.
*****
Coko
Beach
(25/1)
Terrible
in last 2 runs, so lots to be taken on trust.
***
Sayo
(33/1)
Well
beaten last time and tough to think he can bounce back in this.
****
Stratum
(18/1)
Strange
campaign, with so flat turf runs at the end of the flat season, so
been on the go for a long time and little form over this trip.
*****
Protektorat
(9/1)
Still
a novice, but ran as a juvenile. Has the Skelton’s on board, so
should be spot on for this.
****
Mister
Blue Sky (33/1)
Poor
on last 2 starts, so something to prove and this isn’t where you do
it.
***
Black
Tears
(16/1)
Had
a busy campaign, with her last run just 3 weeks ago, so not really
plotted to win this.
***
The
Mighty Don
(33/1)
Aborted
chasing career, fully exposed back over hurdles and is ignored.
****
Traffic
Fluide (20/1)
Great
run before tipping up in Ascot Chase. Classy, but has to be passed
over today.
*
Chesterfield
(40/1)
Old
star, who won’t be winning this at his age over this trip.
*****
Alfa
Mix
(10/1)
Nothing
wrong with him, and could easily see him win, but been ultra busy
this season and just fails to make the shortlist.
*****
Champagne
Well
(20/1)
Second
season Novice, who’s been running well over this trip and further
in Graded Hurdles. Not sure he’s been primed for this, but ran well
in a big feld handicap last season. Probable
place chance at best.
*****
Dame
De Compagnie
(7/1
fav)
Nicky
Henderson has a good record in this. Big field handicap winner when
last seen in December. A lay off is fine in this race, so a fair
favourite.
****
Honest
Vic (28/1)
Should
be too exposed to win this, but not going to fully rule him out.
*****
Thosedaysaregone
(14/1)
Winnier
of valuable handicap last time, so unlikely to have this on his
radar. Tick plenty of boxes, but a little too experienced now.
****
Golan
Fortune (50/1)
Been
running over 3 miles, don’t see it as a positive to drop back to
this.
*****
Burrows
Edge (16/1)
Decent
form at Kempton this season, mostly been racing left-handed. Aborted
chase career so probably not the first thing on Nicky Henderson’s
mind at the start of the season.
**
Fagan
(33/1)
1
run in 2 years. That was the Scottish Grand National. Not sure that
fits the right profile.
Bold
Plan
– Reserve
Everybreathyoutake
- Reserve
Conclusion
This
is always a nightmare to find the winner in this race. 20 horses fit
the trends. I may have to get rid of the ‘odd’ horses, who’ve
don’t fit what I would call a typical festival handicap winner.
Headgear
is not a positive in this race. Your up and coming horses, shouldn’t
really need sharpening up at this stage of their career. Shortlist is
of 4 horses, 3 pretty short and one bigger price. FRANCO
DE PORT
(12/1) ticks all the boxes. (and French 5 year olds having an
excellent record). PROTEKTORAT
(9/1) is another, trained by master plotter Dan Skelton (he hasn’t
won this yet though). He’s got a hood on, so you have to take that
on board. DAME
DE COMPAGNIE
(7/1 fav) also has a hood. CHAMPAGNE
WELL
(20/1) should be there or there about too at a bigger price.
Selections
FRANCO
DE PORT @
16/1
e/w, 4 places Bet365. Expect more places on the day, probably 6 but
maybe 12/1.
CHAMPAGNE
WELL @
20/1 e/w , general. Wait for the places.
BETWAY
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
1
Mile 7 Furlongs 199 Yards, Grade 1 Chase
Overview
This
looks a cracking renewal, possibly
the race of the week. With
the two-time champ, Altior,
coming up against 2 young pretenders in Defi
Du Seuil
and Chacan
Pour Soi.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.3 stars
2019
***** Altior (4/11 fav)
2018
**** Altior (evs fav)
2017
*** Special Tiara (10/1)
2016
***** Sprinter Sacre (5/1)
2015
***** Dodging Bullets (9/2)
2014
**** Sire De Grugy (11/4 fav)
2013
***** Sprinter Sacre (1/4 fav)
2012
**** Finian’s Rainbow (4/1)
2011
**** Sizing Europe (10/1)
2010
**** Big Zeb (10/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had won over 2m1/2f or 2m1f.
10/10
Were racing within the last 81 days. [8 ran within 53 days]
10/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 170.
[OR 159+]
10/10
Were younger than 11 years old.
10/10
Had won a Grade 1 Chase.
9/10
Had between 7 and 16 Chase starts. [Special
Tiara
had 22 starts]
9/10
Were rated within 9lbs of the RPR top rated. [Big
Zeb
was 19lbs off of the highly rated Master Minded]
8/10
Had run between 2 & 4 times in the season. [Sire
De Grugy
ran 6 times, Altior
just once after slight setbacks]
7/10
Won a Graded Chase last time out. [Exceptions were 2nd,3rd and 5th
in Grade 1 or Grade 2’s]
Additionally
33
of the last 36 winners had won over 2m2f or more, or were C&D
winners.
33
of the last 38 winners won at a single figure price.
24
of the last 35 winners were placed at a previous festival.
20
of the last 21 winners had 7 or more Chase starts.
17
of the last 18 winners were Grade 1 Chase winners.
16
of the last 17 Arkle winners to run in the following year's Champion
Chase all placed. [The pulled-up injured, Douvan,
being the exception]
15
of the last 17 champions were beaten. [Only Master
Minded retained
his title]
17
of the last 21 winners were 5/1 or shorter.
18
of the last 27 winners had won at a previous festival. (22 of last
35)
Only
1 winner aged greater than 10 since 1977.
Only
1 of the last 23 winners had run more than 4 times that season.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
0-0-3
7yo
2-4-17
8yo
2-5-28
9yo
4-2-22
10yo
2-5-13
11yo
0-3-7
12yo
0-0-2
13yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 5-0-10
Paul
Nicholls
1-1-12
Tom
George 0-3-7
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-2-9
Alan
King 0-1-2
Contenders
*****
Altior
(3/1)
Was
found to be lame yesterday and may not take part, which would be a
massive shame, but these things can clear up overnight and the horse
is fine to run at 100%.
Discovered
he wasn’t a Gold Cup horse on first run of the season. Perfect on
the trends, but this is his toughest assignment yet. Been hitting a
flat spot, before powering home, recently. This is a lot tougher and
he can’t afford to give Defi Du Seuil too much at the last.
**
Bun
Doran
(80/1)
Shocked
Sceaux Royal earlier in the season, for his first Grade 2 win.
Going to be outclassed here though.
****
Chacan
Pour Soi
(5/2)
Quality
horse, not run at Cheltenham before, and a little inexperienced with
just 5 starts.
*****
Defi Du Seuil
(7/4fav)
New
favourite after the injury news, won all the trails for this, this
season. Proper stayer, who could run in the Ryanair Chase, so he
won’t be stopping at the last. Also gets a bit flat in races.
Perfect on trends here.
*
Dynamite
Dollars (20/1)
Just
short of top class. May outrun his odds in this hot renewal
***
Politologue
(33/1)
2nd
last year, hasn’t won it by now, and unlikely to win it now.
****
Sceau
Royal
(33/1)
3rd
last year and lead over the last. Seems to have been around forever,
but still only 8. A better fit for each way purposes than
Politologue,
but will need to improve and I don’t think he can.
Conclusion
With
the injury news, it means my selection of DEFI
DU SEUIL
is shorter than I wanted. He’s got the stamina to fend off Altior
when he comes flying, and without the Cheltenham experience, I’m
not with Chacan
Du Soi.
Selection
Selection
No
bet at the current odds. May get a special price open up on the day
for an interest bet on Defi
Du Seuil.
GLENFARCLAS
CROSS COUNTRY CHASE
3
Miles 6 Furlongs 37 Yards, Grade 2 Chase
Overview
Some
of the trends are holding up now that it's a level weight contest
(Handicap until 2016). Mainly because it’s such a unique contest
that experience of these fences and the course outweighs any weight
penalties. Well
see if Tiger
Roll
can make this the first hattrick of the season.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.9 stars
2019
**** Tiger Roll (5/4 fav)
2018
***** Tiger Roll (7/1)
2017
***** Cause Of Causes (4/1)
2016
***** Josies Orders (15/8 fav)
2015
** Rivage D’Or (16/1)
2014
**** Balthazar King (4/1)
2013
***** Big Shu (14/1)
2012
** Balthazar King (11/2)
2011
**** Sizing Australia (13/2)
2010
*** A New Story (25/1)
10-year
Trends
10/10
Were rated within 11lbs of the RP Top Rated horse.
9/10
Had raced 3 or more times in the season. [Tiger
Roll,
twice]
9/10
Aged between 8 and 10 years old. [A
New Story
was 12]
9/10
Had won a Chase over 3 miles or more. [Sizing
Australia,
2m6f]
9/10
Had run in between 7 and 21 Chases. [A
New Story
(48)]
9/10
Had experienced between 1 and 6 Cross Country Chases in their career.
[exception debuted in 2015.]
8/10
Irish Trained. [Exception Philip
Hobbs]
8/10
Placed in a Cheltenham or Punchestown Cross Country Chase that season
or had won at a previous festival..
8/10
Top 5 last time out in a Chase. [One exception was carried out and
the other fell.]
Additionally
14
of the 15 winners had won over 3 miles or more.
12
of the last 13 winners were aged 8-10.
No
horse younger than 8 has ever won.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
0-1-5
7yo
0-0-9
8yo
4-1-20
9yo
3-4-29
10yo
2-4-28
11yo
0-10-26
12yo
1-4-25
13yo
0-1-10
14yo
0-2-4
15yo
0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 3-2-10
Philip
Hobbs 2-2-10
Enda
Bolger (Ire) 1-5-29
Henry
de Bromhead (Ire) 1-1-6
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-3-13
Emmanuel
Clayeux (Fra) 0-2-4
Contenders
*
Arlequin
D’Allier
(25/1)
Fails
plenty of trends, mainly he’s unproven over the trip or the course.
***
Chic
Name
(40/1)
Stays
and has run ok
on both starts over the fences. Outside squeak of a place.
**
Diesel
D’Allier
(18/1)
He’s
only 7, so plenty more to come in the future. Won in November, but
fell at the December fixture.
***
Easysland
(11/4)
Likely
to be the future champion, but is just 6. Won over these fences but
still something to find with Tiger Roll. This course is a leveller
and should be in the frame.
***
Fact
Of The Matter
(50/1)
Won
one of these last season, but well beaten this year.
*
Josies
Orders
(33/1)
Former
champ, but too old now.
**
Kingswell
Theatre
(33/1)
Won
a race in 2017, but well beaten on subsequent tries. Now 11 and hard
to fancy.
*
Might
Bite
(14/1)
This
11 year old is a former 3 mile Grade 1 winner and Gold Cup runner up.
Gone backwards since and this looks like a last throw of the dice
before retirement.
****
Neverushacon
(14/1)
Form
behind Yanworth, before being thrashed by Easysland.
But won at Punchestown last time . Has the right profile to run well,
but will find it tough to win.
*
Outlander
(25/1)
Former
3 mile Grade 1 winner. Another 12 year old and another having a last
hurrah before retirement. First attempt at the fences.
**
Out
Sam
(20/1)
Ran
a good 3rd
behind Easysland,
but didn’t run in the Punchestown Cross Country in February. Just
the wrong age and has plenty of miles on the clock.
**
Sumkindofking
(33/1)
Another
making his debut over this course. Does stay, and place chances if
taking to it.
****
Tiger
Roll
(evs
fav)
The
one to beat. Miles clear of the ratings. Had the same preparation as
last season, though not as impressive in that run this year.
*
Urgent
De Gregaine
(12/1)
Still
consistent, but now 12 with lots of runs under his belt. Place chance
at best.
*
Utility
(150/1)
No
form at a trip and first try here. Ignore.
****
Yanworth
(16/1)
Former
Graded winning Hurdler and Chaser, including here. Won earlier in
season in Ireland, before falling in first attempt here. Lively
outsider.
Conclusion
One
for Tiger
Roll
to win. Easysland
his biggest danger. Yanworth
and Neverrushacon
can
run well. This is a leveller of a race, but when the best horse is
also the best on the course its hard to back anything.
Selections
YANWORTH
@ 14/1 e/w
NEVERRUSHACON
@ 14/1 e/w
I
may go without the favourite(s) or get 4 places. I expect 20/1 to be
floating around on the day. I’m not taking 14/1 3 places at the
moment.
BOODLES
FRED WINTER JUVENILE
HANDICAP
HURDLE
2
Mile 87 Yards, Grade 3 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Overview
Big
priced winners abound, it’s time we found one.
Last
10 Winners- average 3.6 stars
2019
*** Band
Of Outlaws (7/2 fav)
2018
*** Veneer Of Charm (33/1)
2017
*** Flying Tiger (33/1)
2016
*** Diego Du Charmil (13/2)
2015
***** Qualando (25/1)
2014
**** Hawk High (33/1)
2013
**** Flaxen Flare (25/1)
2012
***** Une Artiste (40/1)
2011
* What A Charm (9/1)
2010
***** Sanctuaire (4/1 fav)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had achieved a Best RPR rating of 110 or more.
9/10
Had between 3 and 5 hurdle starts. 7 had just 3 starts. [Flying
Tiger had
6]
9/10
Had finshed in the top 2 on one of their last 2 starts. 7 won.
8/10
Had an OR of 127-134. [Exceptions 115 & 139.]
8/10
Carried less than 11-03 in weight. [Exceptions 11-8 & 11-5, 2 of
last 3]
8/10
Had won a race.
8/10
Had run within the last 32 days (7 within 25). [Exceptions off for 53
& 133 days.]
8
/10 Had a flat rating of at least 83 (if rated). [Exceptions 70 &
79]
8/10
Were from a Group 1 winning flat sire. [Exceptions Group 3]
Additionally
13
of the 15 winners had run within 37 days.
11
of the 15 winners had just the 3 runs over hurdles.
4
of the 15 winners were fillies, and 3 places from just 21 runners.
Males: 9 wins from 281.
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Paul
Nicholls 3-6-19
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 2-3-15
Nicky
Henderson 1-2-11
Nick
Williams 1-1-7
David
Pipe 0-2-6
Dan
Skelton 0-2-7
Alan
King 0-3-17
Contenders
**
Mick
Pastor
(7/1)
Most
juvenile don’t have 2 months off and win this. High in the weights.
Sire isn’t of the usual standard either. Oh and he ran at Ludlow
last time.
***
Aramix
(5/1
fav)
German-bred
hurdlers have a terrible recent record at the festival. Not sure why,
but only Arctic Fire has won from quite a few over the years.
He’s generally too high in the weights.
**
Palladium
(12/1)
The
Britsh-bred horses also have a terrible record and couple with being
a below average flat horse and high in the weights, is probably one
to leave.
***
Langer
Dan
(25/1)
Another
Ludlow lover, and a little too high in the weights.
***
Blacko
(16/1)
High
in the weights, and nothing special about his sire.
*****
Zoffee
(18/1)
Perfect
on the trends, but British-bred is a worry.
***
Clemencia
(40/1)
Beaten
quite a way last 2 runs, in hot Graded hurdles mind you. But 63
lengths over them is a little to far. No geat shakes on the flat
either.
*****
Galahad
Quest
(20/1)
Favourite
on debut ahead of Allmankind (Triumph Hurdle), but made an
error and wasn’t given a hard time. Won a Grade 2 beating Night
Edition by a length,
here in January. Off since, but the sort of horse we should be
looking at.
*****
Saint
D’Oroux
(16/1)
Form
in big fields is a plus, Sire drops off a little, but not too shabby.
Back to winning ways last time.
****
Thyme
White
(10/1)
Beaten
34 lengths by Goshen
(Triumph Hurdle) on debut, come back well and nothing too wrong with
him.
*****
Night
Edition
(14/1)
A
pound better off at the weights, for a length defeat by Galahad
Quest
in January. But then went to Ludlow, graveyard to Festival stars, and
won last time.
***
Bajan
Excell
(25/1)
Exposed
for this race and not great on the flat. One to ignore.
****
Fraser
Island
(20/1)
Not
great on the flat. Seen worse
****
Recent
Revelations
(12/1)
Not
a great flat horse, and Sire could be better.
***
Sacchoandvanzetti
(25/1)
Poor
flat horse and off the track for 11 weeks. Right old thumping at
Christmas
****
Group
Stage
(20/1)
Plenty
of bad flat horses in this and he’s no exception. Another
German-Bred.
****
Gerolamo
Cardano
(40/1)
British-bred
and well beaten last time.
***
Theatre
Of War
(18/1)
Off
since Christmas and poor flat horse.
**
Repetito
(16/1)
7
runs this season, and off for 3 months. Not great on the flat.
*****
Goa
Lit
(28/1)
Nothing
wrong with him. Beaten by Thyme White last time, gets 3lbs
back for a 5 length defeat.
****
Tronador
(9/1)
One
of the worst flat horses if he wins this.
***
Gealach
(25/1)
Time
off the track and his flat rating are poor here.
Manucci
– Reserve
Scorched
Earth
- Reserve
Conclusion
Plenty with little ability on the flat compared to the usual winner, so we may be looking away from that this year. There are a few I could back at, but one stands out. Grade 2 winner and favourite on debut, ahead of a Triumph hotpot. His trainers won it before too.
Plenty with little ability on the flat compared to the usual winner, so we may be looking away from that this year. There are a few I could back at, but one stands out. Grade 2 winner and favourite on debut, ahead of a Triumph hotpot. His trainers won it before too.
Selection
GALAHAD
QUEST @ 22/1 e/w with William Hill
WEATHERBYS
CHAMPION BUMPER
2
Mile 87 Yards, Grade 1 Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race
Overview
In
the last 3 years we’ve pick out the winner.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.1 stars
2019
***** Envoi
Allen
(2/1 fav)
2018
***** Relegate (25/1)
2017
***** Fayonagh (7/1)
2016
**** Ballyandy (5/1)
2015
***** Moon Racer (9/2 fav)
2014
*** Silver Concorde (16/1)
2013
*** Briar Hill (25/1)
2012
**** Champagne Fever (16/1)
2011
**** Cheltenian (14/1)
2010
*** Cue Card (40/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Won last time.
10/10
Hadn't raced for at least 33 days.
9/10
Had won at least half of their bumpers. [Silver
Concorde had
won 1 of his 3 runs spread over 3 seasons]
9/10
Were aged 5 or 6. [Cue
Card
was a 4 year old]
9/10
Had raced in less than 4 bumpers. [Ballyandy
(4)]
9/10
Had an A.RPR of 126 or more. [Exception had won their only start.]
8/10
Had won a bumper worth at least £4,000.
7/10
Had won a bumper with 13 or more runners.
Additionally
25
of the last 27 winners had won last time out.
21
of the last 22 winners were aged 5 or 6.
18
of the last 19 winners had won at least 50% of their bumper starts.
16
of the last 18 winners had won a bumper worth £4k or more.
20
of the last 27 winners were Irish-bred.
20
of the last 27 winners had won a bumper with 14 or more runners.
20
of the last 27 winners were trained in Ireland.
19
of the last 27 winners were from the first 6 in the market.
.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
1-3-28
5yo
6-16-143
6yo
3-1-47
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-7-34
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 2-0-6
David
Pipe 1-0-6
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 1-0-8
Margaret
Mullins (Ire) 0-1-1
Tony
Martin (Ire) 0-1-3
Contenders
****
Adrimel
(28/1)
Sire
isn’t good enough and only won a £2k race so far.
*****
Appreciate
It
(7/4 fav)
Grade
2 winner, so automatically shortlisted. Hasn’t won in a big field
and a worry about his Sire.
****
Ask
A Honey Bee
(33/1)
Forgiven
for only winning a £3k race. Not worried that his only won in a 12
runner field.
*
Brief
Ambition
(100/1)
Not
good enough.
*
Can
You Call
(100/1)
Also
not good enough
****
Eskylane
(18/1)
Won
in a field of 5. Thats poor in this full field. Hits everything else.
***
Femy
Hollow
(12/1)
I’d
be worried about his strike rate and ran 18 days ago.
*****
Five
Bar Brian
(40/1)
Debut
in December 2017. Next run in January. So had problems, but didn’t
stop him winning on return. Have to be worried about his sire.
***
Good Time Jonny (40/1)
Doesn’t
win very often, and only won a £3k race with 7 runners.
*****
Israel
Champ
(11/1)
Won
a Listed event, negative is winning v 10 runners. Not a problem and
must be shortlisted.
***
Julies
Stowaway
(40/1)
Just
the one win so far.
***
Linelee
King
(80/1)
Not
good enough on what we’ve seen so far.
**
Mahler
Allstar
(66/1)
Plenty
of negatives here.
***
One
True King
(50/1)
Just
the 1 run so far. Was a Ludlow over 1m6f. Plenty of experience in
Point-to-Points.
*
Snow
Piercer
(500/1)
No
Chance
*****
Third
Time Lucki
(20/1)
Won
at Huntingdon last time, so that to overcome. That was worth £2k.
Sire not great either.
*****
Darling
Daughter
(20/1)
Has
sire problems (Presenting isn’t the worst in general). Won a Mares
Grade 2, so another shortlisted.
****
Queens
Brook
(15/2)
One
run, one win. Only 25 days ago, but respected.
****
The
Glancing Queen
(20/1)
5th
in this last year, won a Grade 2 race last time, but has sire
problems. Each way chance.
*
Audacity
(50/1)
Itnot
the 4 year olds now. Has won a Listed race here, but that was on
heavy and turned over last time on good ground. Fails plenty of
trends.
*
Let
Me Entertain U
(50/1)
Needs
more after just one run.
****
Ocean
Wind
(14/1)
Overturned
Audacity
last time after going down a neck the time before.
****
Panic
Attack
(10/1)
A
4 year old filly, so gets double weight allowances. Won a Listed
contest on only start in January. Shortlisted.
Conclusion
Difficult
to chose from these youngsters. Picking a big race winner has proved
fruitful in the last 5 years and so we should stick to the same
principle. Thats down to 5 horses that fit other trends. Appreciate
It
looks a good favourite, but his sire Jeremy, drops a bit short.
Israel
Champ
looks the best of the Brits, but although David Pipe has won with
Moon
Racer, he’s
not got the horses anymore. Darling
Daughter
is perfection. Ocean
Wind
(Roger Teal isn’t reknown for his bumper runners) and Panic
Attack
(David Pipe) are both 4 year olds.
Selection
DARLING
DAUGHTER
@
20/1
e/w,
general
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