MARSH
NOVICES’ CHASE
(REGISTERED
AS THE GOLDEN MILLER NOVICES’ CHASE)
2
Mile 3 Furlongs 168 Yards, Grade 2 Novice Chase
Overview
We
now have 9 renewals in the bank and some strong trends are coming to
the fore.
Last
9 Winners- average 4.7 stars
2019
**** Defi
Du Seuil (3/1 fav)
2018
**** Shattered Love (4/1)
2017
***** Yorkhill (6/4 fav)
2016
***** Black Hercules (4/1 co fav)
2015
***** Vautour (6/4 fav)
2014
***** Taquin Du Seuil (7/1)
2013
***** Benefficient (20/1)
2012
***** Sir Des Champs (3/1)
2011
**** Noble Prince (4/1)
9-Year
Trends
9/9
Won over at 2m4 or 2m5f.
9/9
Had an Adjusted RPR of 161 or more.
9/9
Were aged 6 or 7.
9/9
Had between 2 and 5 Chase runs.
9/9
Won a Class
1 Chase or were 2nd
in
a Grade 1.
9/9
Had ran at a previous festival
8/9
Were in the top 4 all finishes. [Defi
Du Seuil was
5th
on debut]
7/8
Had run within the last 54 days. [Shattered
Love
76 days]
7/8
Won their last completed finish..[Noble
Prince
(2nd)]
Additionally
18
of the 26 top 3 finishers had won last time out.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-2-5
6yo
3-7-34
7yo
6-7-36
8yo
0-2-11
9yo
0-0-4
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-1-17
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-1-2
Jonjo
O’Neill 0-1-1
Nicky
Henderson 0-3-10
David
Pipe 0-1-3
Contenders
Conclusion
I’m
sure everyone wouldn’t
be upset if
Faugheen
went and won. He’s no ordinary 12 year old, however we trends
people would find it hard to comprehend. Mister Fisher ticks all the boxes. He's had one run (here) over trip and won, but I always see him as a flat track horse, so the other stand out ticker of
boxes is ITCHY
FEET. Samrco's launch into favouritism seems strange, when you see how he was slammed by Faugheen.
Selections
ITCHY
FEET
@ 5/1 - Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred
PERTEMPS
NETWORK FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE
2
Miles 7 Furlongs 213 Yards, Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
Overview
Becoming
everso tricky to find the winner in this. The Irish plots have won
the last 4 years, so it must be worth following those trainers.
Last
10 Winners- average 3.6 stars
2010
** Sire
Du Berlais (4/1 fav)
2018
*** Delta Work (6/1)
2017
***** Presenting Percy (11/1)
2016
***** Mall Dini (14/1)
2015
***** Call The Cops (9/1)
2014
*** Fingal Bay (9/2 fav)
2013
**** Holywell (25/1)
2012
***** Cape Tribulation (14/1)
2011
** Buena Vista (20/1)
2010
** Buena Vista (16/1)
10-Year
Trends
9/10
Had run within the last 61 days.
9/10
Weight carried within 12lbs of bottom weight. [exception Fingal
Bay (15lbs)]
9/10
Had won at least a Class 3 Hurdle or £6k Irish Hurdle .[Holywell
won in Class 4]
9/10
Officially rated between 138 and 148. [The last 9 winners]
9/10
Sire
was rated 11.0f or higher [Exception: Holywell]
8/10
Were either British or Irish-bred. [The
last 2 were French-Bred, so one to keep an eye on]
8/10
Were aged between 6 and 9. [Buena
Vista retained
his title aged 10, Delta
Work
was 5]
8/10
Between 6 and 10 Hurdle runs. [Buena
Vista was
a seasoned hurdler in both wins]
7/10
Finished Top 4 last time.
Additionally
15
of the last 18 winners were rated lower than 143.
12
of the last 16 winners were 10/1 or bigger, including two 50/1
winners.
12
of the last 24 winners had won last-time out from only a
quarter of the runners
4
of the last 7 winners were 6 year olds.
Delta
Work became
only the second 5yo to have won in the history of the race in 2018.
Delta
Work became
the first French-bred winner in 24 years.
Just
2 of the last 23 winners had won their qualifying race.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
1-2-12
6yo
4-9-57
7yo
1-10-64
8yo
2-5-48
9yo
1-2-29
10yo
1-1-15
11yo
0-2-10
12yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 2-3-8
Jonjo
O’Neill 1-1-12
Philp
Hobbs 1-1-19
Nicky
Henderson 1-0-12
Alan
King 0-3-6
Harry
Fry 0-1-3
Venetia
Williams 0-1-6
Contenders
Conclusion
A
truly horrible race to even try to comprehend. The
Story Teller
and Sire
Du Berlais
as Irish, former festival winners, deserve utmost respect, but they
don’t have a sexy price. The top 3 of the The
Cheltenham Handicap on New Year’s Day run
again:-
Skandiburg,
Rapper
and Kilbricken
Storm
(festival winner) and that race may provide the best of the British.
Keep any bets to small
very small stakes.
Selections
SKANDIBURG
@ 10/1 win, general
RAPPER
@ 25/1 ew, 6 places Skybet, Betfred
KILBRICKEN
STORM
@ 22/1 e/w, general. 6 places Betfred
RYANAIR
CHASE
(REGISTERED
AS THE FESTIVAL TROPHY)
2
Miles 4 Furlongs 127 Yards, Grade 1 Chase
Overview
Bryony
Frost lit up Day 3 of the Festival with a gutsy ride on gutsy Frodon.
He
never gives in and was a worthy winner, having been hard at it some
way out.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.3 stars
2019
*** Frodon
(9/2)
2018
*** Balko Des Flos (8/1)
2017
***** Un De Sceaux (7/4 fav)
2016
***** Vautour (evs fav)
2015
***** Uxizandre (16/1)
2014
***** Dynaste (3/1 fav)
2013
***** Cue Card (7/2)
2012
**** Riverside Theatre (7/2 fav)
2011
*** Albertas Run (6/1)
2010
**** Albertas Run (14/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had finished top 2 in one of their last 2 Chase finishes.
10/10
Had won over 2m4 or 2m5f.
10/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 170 or more [OR 162].
10/10
Were rated within 7lbs of the RPR Top rated horse.
9/10
Aged 7-9 [Exception Albertas
Run when
winning again]
9/10
Had less than 5 runs since October. [The
last 9 winners.]
8/10
Had run between 5 and 17 times over fences. [Both
exceptions had 22]
8/10
Had won at the course.
8/10
Had won a Grade 1 chase.
Additionally
11
of the 14 winners started at 6/1 or shorter.
11
of the 12 winners since the race was upgraded in 2008 were rated 161+
on official ratings.
11
of the 12 winners since the upgrade were rated 170+ by the Racing
Post A RPR.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
0-1-3
7yo
5-6-21
8yo
2-6-41
9yo
2-3-26
10yo
1-2-12
11yo
0-1-4
12yo
0-0-3
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 2-3-11
Henry
De Bromhead
(Ire) 1-1-7
Paul
Nicholls 1-1-10
Venetia
Williams 0-2-2
Contenders
Conclusion
A
Plus Tard
fails the trends, mainly due to his age. He’s no ordinary 6 year
old, and he should be upgraded. My personal opinion is its a 2 runner
race between A
Plus Tard
and Min.
Frodon
defied me last year and shouldn’t be rules out. Of the rest, Aso
was 2nd
last year but
has disappointed lately. Duc
Des Genievres
hasn’t fired at all this season after winning the Arkle. Saint
Calvados
is going to win a Grade 1, and Shattered
Love
hasn’t been in form. Ridersonthestorm
won the Ascot Chase, but that fell apart and has to step up again.
Purely on prices, FRODON and RIDERSONTHESTORM offer some value, but the market has it correct and its really a no bet race..
Selections
No bet
PADDY
POWER
STAYERS’ HURDLE
2
Miles 7 Furlongs 213 Yards, Grade 1 Hurdle
Overview
Paisley
Park confirmed he’s the best 3 mile hurdler
around last year, and he’s unbeaten this season too, he looks the
one to beat.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.4 stars
2019
***** Paisley
Park
(11/8 fav)
2018
*** Penhill (12/1)
2017
***** Nichols Canyon (10/1)
2016
***** Thistlecrack (evs fav)
2015
*** Cole Harden (14/1)
2014
*** More Of That (15/2)
2013
***** Solwhit (17/2)
2012
***** Big Buck’s (5/6 fav)
2011
***** Big Buck’s (10/11 fav)
2010
***** Big Buck’s (5/6 fav)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Aged between 6 and 9.
10/10
Had
a Sire/DamSire rating of 10.9f+.
9/10
2-4 runs since August.. [It was Penhill’s
first
run of the season]
9/10
Finished in the top 2 last time. [9 won] [Cole
Harden, 4th
in
2015]
9/10
Not out of top 2 in all hurdle finishes that season. [Cole
Harden (4th)]
8
/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 165. [Cole
Harden (162),
Penhill
(159)]
8/10
Were rated within 7lbs of the RP Top rated [More
Of That (14lbs),
Penhill
(10lbs)]
8/10
Had previous Grade 1 festival experience.
7/10
Had won a Graded Hurdle over 3 miles or more. [Exceptions: had won
Grade 1 &
2s over 2m4/5]
7/10
Had run in between 8 and 20 hurdle races. [Big
Buck's (23,28)
was the reigning champion twice, More
Of That had
just 4 starts]
Additionally
The
last 33 winners finished in the top 4 last time they completed.
27
of the last 30 winners were aged 6-8. Of the 3 9yos to win, 2 were
the current champion.
21
of the last 26 winners had run in the previous year's festival.
19
of the last 20 winners finished in the top 2 last time they
completed.
17
of the last 18 winners had been in the top 2 over hurdles all season
(incl Penhill)
17
of the last 19 winners came from the top 4 in the betting.
14
of the last 18 winners had won a Graded Hurdle over 3 miles or more.
No
winner came from out of the top 2 in the previous year's renewal
since 1981.
No
5-year old has ever won.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-1-5
6yo
2-8-26
7yo
4-3-37
8yo
2-3-33
9yo
2-2-17
10yo
0-1-10
11yo
0-2-5
13yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 2-3-23
Emma
Lavelle 1-0-1
Warren
Greatrex 1-0-4
Colin
Tizzard 1-0-4
Rebecca
Curtis 0-1-3
Nicky
Henderson 0-1-11
Contenders
Conclusion
Paisley
Park
will win, there’s really no other bet, but if Apple’s
Jade
(first time blinkers today) get back to even the form of 2 runs ago,
her price is way, way too big.
Selection
APPLE’S
JADE
@ 18/1 e/w, Bet365, 888bet.
BROWN
ADVISORY & MERRIEBELLE
STABLE
PLATE HANDICAP CHASE
(REGISTERED
AS THE MILDMAY OF FLETE PLATE)
2
Miles 4 Furlongs 166 Yards, Grade 3 Handicap Chase
Overview
The
Irish horses have really made this their own in the last 3 seasons.
Only 1 Irish-trained winner since 1951, and now 4
in a row. They must be respected from now on.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.0 stars
2019
***** Siruh
Du Lac (9/2)
2018
**** The Storyteller (5/1 fav)
2017
***** Road To Respect (14/1)
2016
***** Empire Of Dirt (16/1)
2015
*** Darna (33/1)
2014
*** Ballynagour (12/1)
2013
**** Carrickboy (50/1)
2012
*** Salut Flo (9/2 fav)
2011
*** Holmwood Legend (25/1)
2010
***** Great Endeavour (18/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had won at least a Class 3 Chase. [Incl 6k Irish]
10/10
Had won over a distance of 2m3-2m5f.
9/10
Had less than 13 Chase starts. [Carrickboy
(17)]
9/10
Officially Rated between 135-147. [Holmwood
Legend (130)]
9/10
Carried less than 11 stone. [The
Storyteller
(11-4)]
9/10
Aged between 6 and 9. [Holmwood
Legend
(10)]
7/10
Hadn't run in either of that season's Cheltenham’s big 2m4f
Handicaps.
7/10
Had run within the last 60 days.
Additionally
27
of the last 32 winners were rated less than 142.
22
of the last 25 winners carried less than 11 stone.
21
of the last 28 winners had a top 4 finish last time out. [Only 5 in
the last 10 years]
19
of the last 28 winners had raced at a previous festival.
16
of the last 19 winners were at double-figure odds. [2 exceptions were
both fav]
Only
4 Irish trained winners since 1951. But 3 of the last 4 winners were.
Only
1 of the last 19 winners had run more than 16 times over fences.
The
‘BetVictor’ Gold Cup winner (in November) hasn't won this in the
last 25 years.
The
last 5 year old winner was in 1999.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-0-2
6yo
3-4-19
7yo
2-4-39
8yo
1-12-60
9yo
3-4-46
10yo
1-5-37
11yo
0-2-15
12yo
0-0-5
13yo
0-1-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-1-4
Noel
Meade (Ire) 1-0-1
Nick
Williams 1-0-1
Gary
Moore 0-2-4
Philip
Hobbs 0-2-8
Ian
Williams 0-1-1
Dan
Skelton 0-1-2
Contenders
Conclusion
Imperial
Aura
complimented Simply
The Betts
in the Novice Handicap on Tuesday, but the market knows. He’s a
worthy favourite. Ben
Dundee
is the Elliott/Russell combination and with a hurdles prep last time
ignored, he can go close. He was 3rd
to A
Plus Tard
last year, so has course form. Deyrann
De Carjac
and Springtown
Lake
are respected. At a massive price. Charmant’s
usual rider, Brian Hughes is going for the Jockey’s Championship
and is riding elsewhere.
Selections
SIMPLY
THE BETTS @ 10/3 general
BEN
DUNDEE @ 12/1, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, 888bet
DAYLESFORD
MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE
REGISTERED
AS DAWN RUN MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE
2
Miles 179 Yards, Grade 2 Novice Hurdle
Overview
Willie
Mullins has won all 4 renewals, and our ‘trends’ have caught
three of his short-priced favourites. Last year his 50/1 outsider
gave the bookies a bit of a breather after a pummelling all day.
Last
4 Winners- average 4.0 stars
2019
* Eglantine
Du Seuil
(50/1)
2018
***** Laurina (4/7 fav)
2017
***** Let’s Dance (11/8 fav)
2016
***** Limini (8/11 fav)
‘Trends’:
Taking
a line from the Supreme Novice Trends, we have something to play
with.
Aged
5-6: All
4 winners were 5, with 7 of the 8 places in the age range.
Had
won over
2 Miles or more:
All 4
had won over 2 miles, 3 won over 2m 2f.
Had
run over hurdles at least twice:
Winners ran 2 (twice), 9 and 4 times.
Had
won at least 40% of their Hurdles:
All
4 had won at least 44%.
Had
won a Class 1 Hurdle:
3/4 winners had won a Grade 2/3 Hurdle.
Had
run within the last 2 months:
3 ran within 47 days. The other off for 180.
Has
an A.RPR of 145+ (OR 144+):
3 winners had APRs of 148, 153 & 155.
The other 134.
Finished
Top 2 Last Time:
3
had won their last 2 races. The other 3rd,
last time after 2 opening victories.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
0-0-3
5yo
4-3-30
6yo
0-4-28
7yo
0-1-6
8yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-1-15
Alan
King 0-2-3
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-2-5
Nicky
Henderson 0-1-8
Contenders
Conclusion
Any
Mullins horse has to be respected, but Henry De Bromhead’s Minella
Melody
holds the best form, with a few here in behind. I’d rather be with
horses that have a penalty and assume that last year was a blip
(Epatante
disappointed). Floressa
looks the best of the Brits but the ground may not be in her favour.
2 at an each way price that can outrun their odds. Ard
Abhainn
and Emmas
Joy.
Both stay further if required, but Ard
Abhainn
has form on this drying ground. Rain is forecast, so wait and see.
Selections
MINELLA
MELODY
@ 7/2, Paddy Power/Betfair
ARD
ABHAINN @ 16/1, Betfred, Betway
FULKE
WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP
AMATEUR
RIDERS’ HANDICAP CHASE
3
Miles 2 Furlongs, Class 2 Handicap Chase
Overview
Ah
great, amateur riders. Always look for the best amateurs, avoid
claimers, and get the pin ready..
Last
10 Winners- average 4.1 stars
2019
**** Any
Second Now (6/1)
2018
***** Missed Approach (8/1)
2017
**** Domesday Book (40/1)
2016
*** Cause Of Causes (9/2)
2015
** The Package (9/1)
2014
***** Spring Heeled (12/1)
2013
**** Same Difference (16/1)
2012
***** Sunnyhillboy (13/2 fav)
2011
***** Junior (10/3 fav)
2010
**** Ballabriggs (9/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Carried more than 11-00 in weight.
10/10
Were officially rated between 134-143.
10/10
Were rated within 6lbs of the RPR top rated horse.
9/10
Had run within 76 Days. [The
Package (96
days) in 2015.]
9/10
Aged between 7 and 9. [The
Package (12yo).]
9/10
Did not have a conditional jockey on board. Look for experienced
amateurs like Derek
O’Connor and
Jamie
Codd
(won 4 of last 9). [Exception 7lb claimer on Same
Difference
in 2013]
8/10
Had only won 1 or 2 Chases. [Ballabriggs
(3)
in 2010, Any
Second Now
was a Maiden.]
8/10
Had run over 2 miles 7 furlongs or more last time.
8/10
Had run in fewer than 12 chases. [Exceptions, 15 & 19]
Additionally
32
of the last 34 winners had run in a handicap last time out. [Cause
Of Causes ran
in a Grade 2 in 2016, and Any
Second Now was
3rd
in a Grade 2 last year.]
24
of the last 27 winners were aged 7 to 9.
18
of the last 20 winners had run over 2m 7f or more last time out.
13
of the last 15 winner were ridden by non-claiming jockeys.
Ireland
won this in 2014 for the first time since 1984, but also won in 2016
& 2019.
French-bred
horses are 0/59 since 2005.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
0-2-11
7yo
4-11-49
8yo
3-4-62
9yo
2-6-55
10yo
0-5-24
11yo
0-0-17
12yo
1-2-11
13yo
0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-4-9
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 1-2-12
Jonjo
O’Neill 1-2-17
Warren
Greatrex 1-0-3
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-2-6
Nicky
Henderson 0-2-10
Henry
Oliver 0-1-1
Ben
Pauling 0-1-1
Tony
Martin (Ire) 0-1-3
Neil
Mulholland 0-1-4
Venetia
Williams (Ire) 0-1-6
Charlie
Longsdon 0-1-10
Contenders
Conclusion
Top
2 in the market are ridden by Jamie Codd and Derek
O’Connor, the best 2 amateur jockeys. Not sure they are the
best horses for this. I really fancy Kilfilum Cross for this,
he’s been punted in. Bob Mahler wouldn’t want any rain and
would be a sound each way if it stays away. Ardlethen could
run well at a price, but runs have been in small fields.
Selections
KILFILUM
CROSS
@ 17/2 , William Hill, Paddypower/Betfair.
No fancy prices, it looks a really tough day in the handicaps. Keep your money in your pocket.
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