TURNERS NOVICES’ CHASE
(REGISTERED AS THE GOLDEN MILLER NOVICES’ CHASE)
2 Mile, 3 Furlongs, 168 Yards - Grade 2 Novice Chase
Overview
Envoi Allen fell early last year, and Chantry House turned out to be the best on the day. I’ve never warmed to him to be fair, so he was never on my radar. Apart from Benefficient (another winner for us) it’s usually won by the classier horse at the front of the market. Clearly this is now a farce with only 4 runners, though I reckon a few people would pay to watch a match with 2 quality horses.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.9 stars
2021 **** Chantry House (9/1)
2020 ***** Samcro (4/1)
2019 ***** Defi Du Seuil (3/1 fav)
2018 ***** Shattered Love (4/1)
2017 ***** Yorkhill (6/4 fav)
2016 ***** Black Hercules (4/1 co fav)
2015 ***** Vautour (6/4 fav)
2014 ***** Taquin Du Seuil (7/1)
2013 ***** Benefficient (20/1)
2012 ***** Sir Des Champs (3/1)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Won over at 2m4 to 2m51/2f.
10/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 161 or more. 163, the last 9. [OR 147+, Shattered Love 151 with allowance)
10/10 Were aged 6 to 8. [9 were 6 or 7]
10/10 Had ran at a previous festival.
10/10 Had last run between 29 and 77 days.
9/10 Won a Class 1 Chase or were 2nd in a Grade 1. [Exception: Chantry House hadn’t run in one.]
9/10 Had between 3 and 5 Chase runs.
9/10 Were in the top 4 all finishes. [Defi Du Seuil was 5th on debut]
9/10 Had won their last completed finish, [Exceptions: Samcro was 2nd]
8/10 Had won a Graded Hurdle. [Exceptions: won a Class 2, and the other 3rd in a Grade 1]
8/10 Were rated within 8lb of the Racing Post Top Rated. [Exceptions: 10 & 12lbs]
Additionally
21 of the 32 top 3 finishers had won last time out.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 0-2-6
6yo 3-8-34
7yo 6-7-40
8yo 1-2-12
9yo 0-0-6
Fate Of Favourites LSP: +2.00
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 4-4-2
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 2-1-3
Nicky Henderson 1-4-11
Nigel Twiston-Davies 0-3-5
Noel Meade (Ire) 0-2-3
Contenders
**** Bob Olinger (evs fav)
Great performance last year in the Ballymore, this is his trip, jumping got a lot better last time, would have preferred him to have another run to perfect it.
* El Barra (20/1)
Ran just 4 days ago, £20,000 for 3rd place would be nice, £10,000 for last not too shabby..
***** Galopin Des Champs (5/2)
Good winner of the Martin Pipe last year, could have gone for the 3 mile race, but kept here. Grade 1 win in the bag.
* Busselton (33/1)
Half decent Juvenile last year, this is obviously very tough.
Conclusion
It’s obviously going to be a match. Neither have run the three times I’d have liked. Bob Olinger looks the more natural 2m 4f runner, Galopin Des Champs has the Graded form. Perhaps, with the ground still wet, stamina will come into play with Galopin Des Champs. Just sit back and relax.
Selection
NO BET
PERTEMPS NETWORK FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE
2 Miles, 7 Furlongs, 213 Yards - Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
Overview
Irish trainers have won the last 6 renewals. It used to be the British exclusive hurdle of the meeting. It usually pays to concentrate on the Irish qualifiers as well, Sire Du Berlais is back to try for the hat-trick.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.2 stars
2021 ***** Mrs Milner (12/1)
2020 *** Sire Du Berlais (10/1)
2019 *** Sire Du Berlais (4/1 fav)
2018 ***** Delta Work (6/1)
2017 **** Presenting Percy (11/1)
2016 ***** Mall Dini (14/1)
2015 ***** Call The Cops (9/1)
2014 **** Fingal Bay (9/2 fav)
2013 *** Holywell (25/1)
2012 ***** Cape Tribulation (14/1)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Were aged between 5 and 8.
10/10 Were either British or Irish-bred or French-breds trained by Gordon Elliott.
9/10 Had run within the last 61 days. [Exception: Sire De Berlais, 76 days]
9/10 Had won at least a Class 2 Hurdle or £7k Irish Hurdle.[Exception: Holywell won in Class 4]
9/10 Sire Index is at least 11.2f. [Exception: Holywell; Sire - / DS 7.7 ]
9/10 Had won less than 2 Handicap Hurdles [Exception: Presenting Percy, 2 wins]
9/10 Between 6 and 10 Hurdle runs. [Exception: Sire De Berlais (14), when retaining his title]
9/10 Finished Top 4, last completion. [Exception: Sire De Berlais, 6th]
8/10 Officially rated less than 147. [Exceptions: 148 & 152]
Additionally
16 of the last 20 winners were rated lower than 143.
14 of the last 18 winners were 10/1 or bigger, including two 50/1 winners.
12 of the last 26 winners had won last-time out from only a quarter of the runners
5 of the last 8 winners were 6 year olds.
Delta Work became only the second 5yo to have won in the history of the race in 2018.
Delta Work became the first French-bred winner in 24 years. Now 3 of last, All trained by Gordon Elliott.
Just 2 of the last 25 winners had won their qualifying race.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-1-6
6yo 5-8-56
7yo 1-10-65
8yo 3-5-47
9yo 0-3-32
10yo 0-1-16
11yo 0-2-9
12yo 0-0-13
13yo 0-0-1
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -0.50
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 3-4-10
Patrick Kelly (Ire) 2-0-2
Jonjo O’Neill 1-1-11
Philp Hobbs 1-1-20
Nicky Henderson 1-0-12
Alan King 0-3-6
Paul Nicholls 0-3-11
Harry Fry 0-1-3
Henry de Bromhead (Ire) 0-2-4
Jessica Harrington (Ire) 0-2-5
David Pipe 0-2-15
Contenders
* Sire Du Berlais (5/1 fav)
He burst all my trends last time, and plenty before that. Goes for the hat-trick and I’m sure he’ll go close. He would be a bit too old normally, on top of all the other trends he ignored. Ground no problem.
* Ballyandy (16/1)
Exposed, too high in the weights, etc. Won his last 2 and this former Bumper winner may be back to near his best, though he’s now 11. Ground no problem either.
** Dallas Des Pictons (28/1)
Too old and out of form. Can’t see him staying on the ground.
Go Another One NON-RUNNER
* The Jam Man (20/1)
Likeable connections. Should be too old and poor run last time. Goes on any ground.
* Sassy Yet Classy (12/1)
Davy Russell on a Gordon Elliott handicapper. What’s not to like? Davy’s won this 3 times in the last 6 years. He won his qualifier, but hasn’t been seen since December, a one star for the shortlist. Ground will be fine.
** Honest Vic (28/1)
Been Novice Chasing, cleared the hurdle cobwebs last time. C&D winner last season. Another too old and exposed though. Ground problems.
*** Third Wind (25/1)
Bit better, 2 handicap wins and a few too many runs. Ground should be ok on Rendlesham victory last season.
**** Tullybeg (20/1)
Been off for 145 days, but he’s won twice off of 100+ day breaks. Not sure he appreciates softer ground.
* Dame De Compagnie (25/1)
Too old now. Will like softer conditions, but not bred to stay and hasn’t won over this far yet.
* Stoney Mountain (66/1)
Now too old and exposed and off the track since New Years Day. Not sure he’ll get trip in forecast conditions anyway.
**** Mill Green (40/1)
Ticks plenty of boxes, bit too old. The ground will be ok.
***** Alaphilippe (6/1)
5th in the Albert Bartlett. Perfect really. Wasn’t in the top 4 last time, but that was in his qualifier, so ignore that. Ground should be ok, but I’m not 100% sure he as honest as some others here and he’s short enough in the market.
** Winter Fog (7/1)
2nd in his qualifier on soft. Been off since. Yet to win over this far. Trainer switch may have brought out improvement and maybe more to come.
*** Whatsnottoknow (33/1)
Too exposed and only won 1 race. If he stays the trip, it won’t be in this ground.
** If The Cap Fits (33/1)
Doesn’t run often on soft ground, and certainly not over this trip. He’s too old and exposed anyway.
** Folcano (14/1)
Unlikely to get the trip in this ground. Been off for 3 months and only won a minor hurdle so far. He is a Gordon Elliott horse, but even so there will be better horses in this.
*** Pileon (28/1)
Heartbreakingly done on the line in the Martin Pipe in 2020. Just one win since, and uncertain to stay on this ground.
*** Born Patriot (20/1)
Not bred to stay 3 miles, especially on softer ground. Though did run ok to qualify. On balance its a no from me.
*** Coeur Serein (40/1)
Won 3 handicaps last season, will probably stay in the ground, but need a lot more here having only won a Class 3 race.
** Kansas City Chief (40/1)
Defying his age (13) and won easily 3 days ago, this is obviously tougher, but he’s in great form and could run well. Goes on the ground.
Didtheyleaveuoutto NON-RUNNER
**** The Cob (50/1)
Winning form on soft ground at 3 miles. Not won for 4 races now including a well down the field defeat in the Albert Bartlett. Can’t recommend.
*** Dunboyne (8/1)
Wil definitely stay on the ground, but well beaten in all races this season. Not won at a decent level yet. He could be plotted with for Gordon Elliott though and Jack Kennedy is on board.
Conclusion
You could rip through every horse here and find fault. 8 of the field are more exposed than your usual winner, 13 are too old, 8 coming back from a lay-off longer than usual. The shorlisted ones will be Sassy Yet Classy, Dunboyne and of course Sire Du Berlais. Keep it simple.
Selection
DUNBOYNE @ 8/1 (general)
RYANAIR CHASE
(REGISTERED AS THE FESTIVAL TROPHY)
2 Miles, 4 Furlongs, 127 Yards - Grade 1 Chase
Overview
The Championship race for the intermediate chasers. Looking for Irish-trained French-Breds seems to be the way forward, although Frodon won for Paul Nicholls 3 years ago. This looks Allaho’s to lose this year.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.4 stars
2021 **** Allaho (3/1 fav)
2020 ***** Min (2/1)
2019 *** Frodon (9/2)
2018 *** Balko Des Flos (8/1)
2017 ***** Un De Sceaux (7/4 fav)
2016 ***** Vautour (evs fav)
2015 ***** Uxizandre (16/1)
2014 ***** Dynaste (3/1 fav)
2013 ***** Cue Card (7/2)
2012 **** Riverside Theatre (7/2 fav)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Had finished top 2 in one of their last 2 Chase finishes.
10/10 Had won over 2m4f or further.
10/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 170 or more [OR 161].
10/10 Were rated within 6lbs of the RPR Top rated horse. 6 Top Rated
10/10 Had less than 5 runs since October.
10/10 Were Aged 7-9.
10/10 Were off less than 84 days
8/10 Had run between 6 and 15 times over fences. [Exception: Frodon had 22]
8/10 Had won at the course or placed at a previous festival.
8/10 Had won a Grade 1 Chase. [Exceptions: 2 had won a Grade 2 Chase, the other was 2nd in a Grade 1]
Additionally
13 of the 16 winners started at 6/1 or shorter.
13 of the 14 winners since the race was upgraded in 2008 were rated 161+ on official ratings.
13 of the 14 winners since the upgrade were rated 170+ by the Racing Post A RPR.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 0-2-5
7yo 6-5-23
8yo 2-7-37
9yo 2-3-23
10yo 0-1-10
11yo 0-1-4
12yo 0-0-3
Fate Of Favourites LSP: +7.58
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 4-3-15
Henry De Bromhead (Ire) 1-2-9
Nicky Henderson 1-2-11
Alan King 1-1-6
Noel Meade (Ire) 0-2-2
Venetia Williams 0-2-3
Contenders
***** Allaho (8/13 fav)
Easy winner last year, bang in form this term. Ground should be fine. The one to beat.
*** Conflated (10/1)
Shock win in the Irish Gold Cup, drops back in trip today. Ground no problems, especially at this trip. Lack of course/festival form..
**** Eldorado Allen (16/1)
Up in trip last time and won well. All soft ground form is over 2 miles. Needs a lot more to win, but could place.
* Fanion D’Estruval (25/1)
Will be outclassed here. Beaten 54 lengths (5th) by Allaho last year.
** Janidil (14/1)
Up in trip the last 2 races and did ok. Probably should come back down in trip and has place chance. No Cheltenham form to speak of (5th to Monkfish in Albert Bartlett in 2020.
*** Melon (18/1)
Won last time (first since 2019). He’s now 10 years old. Pulled up in this last year after a bad mistake. Will like the ground. Has 4 second places at the festival.
Mister Fisher NON-RUNNER
Saint Calvados NON-RUNNER
*** Shan Blue (10/1)
Only start this year when he threw away the Charlie Hall Chase (3m) at Wetherby. Well clear and cruising when fell 3 out. Was a heavy fall and taken time to get back. Talented horse, if he remembers how to jump.
Conclusion
This is obviously Allaho’s to lose. He should win well.
Selection
NO BET
PADDY POWER STAYERS’ HURDLE
2 Miles, 7 Furlongs, 213 Yards - Grade 1 Hurdle
Overview
An intriguing puzzle this year, with holes in all of those at the top of the market. Hopefully a shock is on the cards.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.0 stars
2021 **** Flooring Porter (12/1)
2020 ** Lisnagar Oscar (50/1)
2019 ***** Paisley Park (11/8 fav)
2018 *** Penhill (12/1)
2017 ***** Nichols Canyon (10/1)
2016 ***** Thistlecrack (evs fav)
2015 *** Cole Harden (14/1)
2014 *** More Of That (15/2)
2013 ***** Solwhit (17/2)
2012 ***** Big Buck’s (5/6 fav)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Aged between 6 and 9.
9/10 Had a Sire/DamSire Stamina rating of 11.6f+. [Exception: Penhill 9.9/10.4]
9/10 2-4 runs since August.. [It was Penhill’s first run of the season]
8/10 Finished in the top 2 last finish. [Exceptions: 3rd & 4th]
8/10 Had run in between 8 and 20 hurdle races. [Big Buck's (28) was the reigning champion, More Of That had just 4 starts]
7/10 Not out of top 2 in all hurdle finishes that season.
7/10 Had previous Grade 1 festival experience.
7/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 165. [Exceptions: 159, 162, 155] [OR 153 (9/10)]
7/10 Were rated within 7lbs of the RP Top rated [Exceptions: 10, 14, 21lbs]
7/10 Had won a Graded Hurdle over 3 miles or more. [Exceptions: 2 had won Grade 1 over 2m4f & a Grade 2 over 2m5f]
Additionally
The last 35 winners finished in the top 4 last time they completed.
29 of the last 32 winners were aged 6-8. Of the 3 9yos to win, 2 were the current champion.
22 of the last 28 winners had run in the previous year's festival.
20 of the last 22 winners finished in the top 2 last time they completed.
17 of the last 20 winners had been in the top 2 over hurdles all season (incl Penhill)
17 of the last 21 winners came from the top 4 in the betting.
16 of the last 22 winners had won a Graded Hurdle over 3 miles or more.
No winner came from out of the top 2 in the previous year's renewal since 1981.
No 5-year old has ever won.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 0-1-4
6yo 3-5-22
7yo 4-4-38
8yo 1-3-33
9yo 2-5-21
10yo 0-0-16
11yo 0-2-4
13yo 0-0-1
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -3.79
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 2-3-23
Paul Nicholls 1-3-13
Emma Lavelle 1-1-3
Rebecca Curtis 1-1-5
Alan King 0-2-5
Contenders
***** Champ (5/1)
Back over Hurdles this year and looked superb in the Long Walk Hurdle. Looked tired up the hill in the Cleeve Hurdle last time. He’s now 10 at that really is a negative, but he does only have 17 career starts. Goes on soft.
***** Flooring Porter (4/1 jtfav)
Won last year (we had him!). Got an easy lead never looked back. Was on soft ground. Not won since. Was going well at Navan before falling, then a clear 2nd behind Klassical Dream (who got a flying start) last time.
** Home By The Lee (40/1)
Good run last time behind Royal Kahala at a massive price. That was first time at 3 miles (over Hurdles) and on soft ground. Needs a similar effort to feature here.
**** Klassical Dream (4/1 jtfav)
Talented but fragile. Best runs have come off long breaks. Flopped last time. Looked fantastic at Punchestown last season (487 days off) at first try at 3 miles. Difficult to predict but ticks most of the boxes.
* Koshari (80/1)
10 year old. Should be outclassed in this. Taken out of Willie Mullins stable earlier in season.
*** Lisnagar Oscar (33/1)
Hasn’t won since success in this in 2020. Behind Paisley Park and Champ last time. Not sure he’s comfortable on bad ground too.
**** Paisley Park (8/1)
He’s 10 as well. Left at start last time in Cleeve Hurdle, before coming through to win. Probably need to do the same again. Won in 2019, but 7th and 3rd in last 2 runnings. Ground will be ok. Very difficult to predict.
** Song For Someone (33/1)
First time at this trip and in bad ground. Not bred to stay amnd not for me.
**** Thyme Hill (9/2)
Not won this year. Talented 3 miler. Always find one too good. Place chances, although 3 mile form is on better ground.
**** Royal Kahala (6/1)
First try at 3 miles (soft) lead to a victory over Home By The Lee and Klassical Dream. 3rd was Ashdale Bob who ran really well on Wednesday in Coral Cup. She just fails some categories and must be considered.
Conclusion
The ground may well have dried out a bit by now, the percentage call is the horse that is the right age and won well last time out. Royal Kahala of course.
Selection
ROYAL KAHALA @ 6/1 (Bet365, Paddypower, Betfair, William Hill)
CRAFT IRISH WHISKEY CO. PLATE HANDICAP CHASE
(REGISTERED AS THE MILDMAY OF FLETE PLATE)
2 Miles, 4 Furlongs, 127 Yards - Grade 3 Handicap Chase
Overview
The Shunter bagged a £100,000 bonus last year, after winning at Kelso, over hurdles, 12 days before. He was entered in half a dozen races, so whereever he ended up, he was going to be short. He was up the front the whole way, and prominent horses usually hold sway here…. usually.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.8 stars
2021 ***** The Shunter (9/4 fav)
2020 *** Simply The Betts (100/30 fav)
2019 ***** Siruh Du Lac (9/2)
2018 **** The Storyteller (5/1 fav)
2017 ***** Road To Respect (14/1)
2016 ***** Empire Of Dirt (16/1)
2015 *** Darna (33/1)
2014 ** Ballynagour (12/1)
2013 **** Carrickboy (50/1)
2012 ** Salut Flo (9/2 fav)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Had won at least a Class 3 Chase. [Incl 6k+ Irish]
10/10 Had won over a distance of 2m3-2m5f Chase.
10/10 Aged between 6 and 9.
9/10 Had less than 12 Chase starts. [Exception: Carrickboy (17)]
9/10 Officially Rated under 148. [Exception: Simply The Betts (149)]
8/10 Carried less than 11 stone. [Both exceptions carried 11-4]
8/10 Had won that season. [Both exceptions had just 1 run, but had won within 3 runs.]
7/10 Hadn't run in either of that season's Cheltenham’s big 2m4f Handicaps in November and December. [Those that did, din’t place, finishing 12th, pulled-up and 5th]
7/10 Had run within the last 60 days. [2 Exceptions were trained by David Pipe. 70, 96, 117 days]
Additionally
28 of the last 34 winners were rated less than 142.
23 of the last 27 winners carried less than 11 stone.
23 of the last 30 winners had a top 4 finish last time out. The last 3 won.
20 of the last 30 winners had raced at a previous festival.
16 of the last 21 winners were at double-figure odds. [Not the last 4 winners.]
Only 5 Irish trained winners since 1951. But 4 of the last 5 winners were.
Only 1 of the last 21 winners had run more than 16 times over fences.
The ‘BetVictor’ Gold Cup winner (in November) hasn't won this in the last 25 years.
The last 5 year old winner was in 1999.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 0-0-3
6yo 2-4-17
7yo 3-4-40
8yo 2-11-56
9yo 3-4-50
10yo 0-6-41
11yo 0-1-13
12yo 0-0-4
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -0.92
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
David Pipe 2-3-16
Colm Murphy (Ire) 1-1-2
Venetia Williams 1-1-14
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 1-0-5 (and Denise Foster 0-1-1)
Evan Williams 0-3-5
Nicky Henderson 0-3-15
Gary Moore 0-2-5
Nigel Twiston-Davies 0-2-11
Contenders
* Hardline (40/1)
Too old, exposed and out of form having not won since 2018.
Simply The Bets NON-RUNNER
Pistol Whipped NON-RUNNER
*** Imperial Alcazar (6/1)
Stays further and ground is fine. A little too high in the weights here, especially on heavy.
Fusil Raffles NON-RUNNER
** Wishing And Hoping (40/1)
Now a 12yo, this is going to be hard. Winning form over further, although ground will be ok.
**** Cavalry Master (33/1)
Ground is ok. Stays further. A little high in weights and off the track a bit too long. First time cheekpieces on today.
*** Coole Cody (25/1)
Hes’ now an 11yo and a little exposed. A fall (when going well) and a win before disappointing on the last 2 runs. All here this season over the trip. Has won a hurdle on heavy, but most of chase runs on decent ground.
**** Schiehallion Munro (40/1)
Slightly too high in weights, and 1 run more than most of the winners. Hardly a problem. Won his last 2 starts, albeit at lower level than this. Hardest race he’s run in so far. Goes on soft, but no course experience.
** Grand Paradis (8/1)
Yet to win over fences, so automatically fails 3 trends. Good enough to run in a Grade 1 on 2nd start, but jumped badly and was pulled-up. Last run was encouraging, well beaten in 2nd on heavy, but the 3rd was further back too. Should upgrade here.
*** Stolen Silver (22/1)
Yet to win at this trip and off since January and still too high in the weights to be ideal. Beaten by Edwardstone by 23 lengths. Would have put him 7th in the Arkle. Could outrun his price.
Presentandcounting NON-RUNNER
***** The Glancing Queen (4/1 fav)
Only beaten 10 lengths by yesterdays winner L’Homme Presse. Goes on the ground and should go close.
**** Celebre D’Allen (5/1)
Won his first start over fences last time (had raced in France over fences, before going back to hurdles when going to Philip Hobbs). But he is now a 10 year old. Lighlty raced and will handle the ground conditions better than most.
***** Adrimel (10/1)
Won last 2 chases on heavy. Perfect on trends at an each-way price. Shortlisted. Update was 18/1 when I typed this, now 10/1 “sigh”.
**** Born By The Sea (66/1)
Wins are over further, so no problem with stamina. All his wins are on better ground though, but has placed on soft. Others preferred.
***** Fancy Foundations (18/1)
Off nearly 3 months now, but runs well after a break, so no problem there. Novice Hurdle win on soft, but not run so well on heavier ground.
** Spiritofthegames (18/1)
Too old and exposed now, but run well in 2 previous renewals. 1 win from 17 starts, but consistent in his day. Form on soft, but never run on heavy before.
** Slate House (40/1)
Lost his way after Grade 1 winning start to career. Now too old and exposed and failed to win this season. Has won on heavy.
***** Fire Away (66/1)
Pulled-up his only attempt at a Graded Handicap chase and disappointed in his last 2 runs. Good form at a lower level, needs more here. Goes on the ground.
***** Chinwag (40/1)
All his chase starts on softer ground, been running ok at a lower level than this.
Guy NON-RUNNER
Conclusion
Well as written above, Adrimel (was 18/1) would have been a selection. 10/1 is too short for each way. The Glancing Queen is also too short really. I expect both to be in the frame. Get best odds guaranteed if you can and hold on to your hats.
Selections:
THE GLANCING QUEEN @ 4/1 (general)
ADRIMEL @ 10/1 ((Bet365, Paddypower, 888bet, Coral, Boylesports)
PARNELL PROPERTIES MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE
REGISTERED AS DAWN RUN MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE
2 Miles, 179 Yards - Grade 2 Novice Hurdle
Overview
We’ve had 6 renewals of this now and it’s dominated by Willie Mullins, French-breds. He didn’t win last year, as Henry de Bromhead and Rachel Blackmore couldn’t stop winning. Probably paying to stay with the Irish though.
Last 6 Winners - average 4.0 stars
2021 ***** Telmesomethinggirl (5/1)
2020 *** Concertista (9/2)
2019 * Eglantine Du Seuil (50/1)
2018 ***** Laurina (4/7 fav)
2017 ***** Let’s Dance (11/8 fav)
2016 ***** Limini (8/11 fav)
‘Trends’:
6/6 Aged 5-6. with 11 of the 12 places in the age range.
6/6 Had run over hurdles at least twice.
6/6 Finished top 3 last time.
5/6 Had won over 2 miles: 4 Had won over further. [Exception: Concertista was 2nd in a Grade 1]
5/6 Had won at least 37.5% of their Hurdles. [Exception: Concertista was a maiden]
5/6 Had run within the last 47 days. [Exception: Eglatine Du Seuil was off for 180 days.]
5/6 Had an A.RPR of 148+. [Exception: Eglatine Du Seuil (135)]
5/6 Rated within 4lbs of th RP TR. [Exception: Eglatine Du Seuil (13lbs)]
5/6 Had been placed in a Class 1 Hurdle: [Exception: Eglatine Du Seuil won a Maiden]
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo 0-0-6
5yo 4-7-42
6yo 2-4-41
7yo 0-1-14
8yo 0-0-2
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -0.33
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 5-2-23
Henry de Bromhead (Ire) 1-1-7
Alan King 0-2-5
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 0-2-7
Contenders
** Impervious (16/1)
Off the track since a 5th place in November. That was in The Royal Bond though, an open Grade 1. That was also on good and she’s won on soft.
**** Love Envoi (10/1)
3 wins on heavy, 2 over further. Of course she needs more to win. She not Irish-Trained.
**** Party Central (15/2)
Wins have come on better ground, too early to say she doesn’t act on heavy.
** Statuaire (25/1)
7 year old, beaten 56 lengths by Sir Gerhard last time. Wore are firtst time hood that day, and its back on today. She won The Royal Bond Grade 1 Hurdle in November. Probably more ground dependant than most here.
* Choice Of Words (33/1)
Another 7 year old. Hasn’t won in last 3 starts, beaten only 3 lengths by Journey With Me last time though. Ground should be fine but well short on ratings.
**** Nina The Terrier (40/1)
All wins have come on better ground, but at a lower level. She’s a bit behind some of the others on ratings and trained in the UK.
* Tweed Skirt (150/1)
Needs plenty more here, Won a 1m4f bumper on heavy, but all hurdle runs on better ground.
* Ahorsewithnoname (80/1)
7 year old, yet to win over hurdles. Ignore.
* Braganza (80/1)
7 year old. Disappointing in her last 2 runs. Hard to fancy even if trained by Willie Mullins. Sean O’Keeffe back on board and he did win on her, but unproven on softer ground.
Brandy Love NON-RUNNER
*** Dinoblue (9/4 fav)
Did you know Dinoblue is the only horse in this years race to hit the 148 A.RPR in this year’s race. Fails a few trends, as she’s only run once (won impressivly on heavy) back in January and doesn’t have any Graded form. Should go very close though.
* Grangee (9/1)
4th in an open Novices Grade 1 at Christmas. Need a lot more and uncertain about the ground.
*** Heia (28/1)
Just shy of some of these on ratings and lack of Graded form. Runs in the same colours as last years winner. Handles soft ground.
* Hidden Land (200/1)
Former flat racer. Now race 25 times in all. Fails plenty and not sure she’ll like the ground.
* Hors Piste (14/1)
Better over further. All runs on heavy. Only 1 win so far and in a bare maiden. You’ll know whe’ll stay if its still heavy and trained by Willie Mullins.
* Mayhem Mya (150/1)
Yet to win, doesn’t go in any ground. Ignore.
** Mighty Blue (22/1)
Yet to win in 5 races, 3rd here last year. Ground may suit better. But just 1 run this season (an unseat).Still rated higher than most of the field.
* Monishter Are Mwee (200/1)
Won one of her five races (on heavy). Plenty to find. Ignore.
*** Nurse Susan (20/1)
Done well at a lower level. Beaten by Love Envoi last time. Weighted to turn that around. British trained.
* Say Goodbye (28/1)
Just 1 win in 7 starts (over 2m4f). Beaten by a couple of these. Weighted to turn round form with Party Central. Robbie Power took over that day and she was certainly more competitive, he keeps the ride (Jack Kennedy not riding in this). Not sure he’ll want bad ground, but will probably be drier by then.
** The Player Queen (100/1)
Started off over further, won over 2 miles last time on soft. Stamina on her side, but lacks class form and needs a lot more.
Walk In Clover NON-RUNNER
Conclusion
Well as I type, Brandy Love is a non-runner, so a complete rethink is required and the prices above will be shorter. It’s time I picked an each way horse. I do think the favourite could be very good. But a chance it taken on Say Goodbye, for Gordon Elliott.
Selections
SAY GOODBYE @ 28/1 (Paddypower, Betvictor, 25/1 botrh 4 places; Betfair 5 places, 22/1 general, 5 places)
FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP
AMATEUR JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP CHASE
(Sponsored by JRL Group)
3 Miles, 2 Furlongs - Class 2 Handicap Chase
Overview
Ah great, amateur riders. Always look for the best amateurs, avoid claimers, and get the pin ready.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.4 stars
2021 **** Mount Ida (3/1 fav)
2020 *** Milan Native (9/1)
2019 **** Any Second Now (6/1)
2018 ***** Missed Approach (8/1)
2017 ***** Domesday Book (40/1)
2016 ***** Cause Of Causes (9/2)
2015 *** The Package (9/1)
2014 ***** Spring Heeled (12/1)
2013 **** Same Difference (16/1)
2012 ***** Sunnyhillboy (13/2 fav)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Were officially rated between 137-143.
10/10 Were not French-Bred. Only 2 of the 41 horses to run, have placed.
10/10 Had won fewer than 3 Chases. 8 of the last nine winners had never won a Handicap Chase.
9/10 Were rated within 6lbs of the RPR top rated horse. [Exception: Mount Ida, 10lbs]
9/10 Had run between 19 and 76 days. [Exception: The Package (96 days) in 2015.]
9/10 Aged between 7 and 9. [Exception: The Package (12yo).]
8/10 Did not have a conditional jockey on board. [Exceptions: Two 7lb claimers.]
8/10 Had run in fewer than 12 chases. [Exceptions: 15 & 19]
8/10 Had run in a Chase over 3m or further. [Exceptions: the last 2 years, both 2nd in a 2m4f, and 2m51/2f Chase]
7/10 Had previous festival experience [Exceptions: 2 were Irish trained]
Additionally
32 of the last 36 winners had run in a handicap last time out. The last 3 had not! 4 of of the last 6 had not!, all Irish-trained.
26 of the last 29 winners were aged 7 to 9.
18 of the last 22 winners had run over 2m 7f or more last time out.
14 of the last 17 winners were ridden by non-claiming jockeys.
Ireland won this in 2014 for the first time since 1984, but have won 5 of the last 8.
French-bred horses are now 0/70 since 2005.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 0-1-11
7yo 6-11-47
8yo 2-6-65
9yo 1-5-52
10yo 0-4-27
11yo 0-1-16
12yo 1-2-8
13yo 0-0-2
Fate Of Favourites LSP: +0.50
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 2-4-10 (and Denise Foster 1-0-1)
Nigel Twiston-Davies 1-2-12
Warren Greatrex 1-1-4
Jonjo O’Neill 1-1-13
Mich Channon 0-2-2
Henry Oliver 0-2-3
Willie Mullins (Ire) 0-2-6
Nicky Henderson 0-2-12
Contenders
**** Frontal Assault (7/1)
A typical Gordon Elliott horse, Novice maiden, probably trained for this after a couple of runs. He is top-weight though. Talented young claimer board.
*** Fakir D’Alene (28/1)
Another Elliott runner. French-bred. Needs a lot more after poor run last time. High in weights.
*** Ain’t That A Shame (8/1)
Another 3 raced maiden. High in weights and not sure he’ll get the trip in the ground.
Janika NON-RUNNER
*** Cat Tiger (22/1)
French-bred. A little exposed, but goes on the ground and could run a big race.
**** School Boy Hours (5/1 fav)
Big win at Christmas. Now 9. 8 of the last 9 winners were aged 8 or less, so while he does get a tick for that, I’d rather be on a younger horse. Derek O’Connor booked.
*** Elegant Escape (50/1)
10 year old Welsh National Winner four years ago. Will stay all day, but opposed.
**** Smoking Gun (12/1)
9 year old and plenty of experience. Jamie Codd rides for Gordon Elliott, but think he’ll need the ground to have dried out by now.
**** Mister Fogpatches (9/1)
Just 1 win in 12 for this 2nd season novice. Consistent this season without winning (well he won on 1st May). Will definitely stay, might find one or two too good.
*** Almazhar Garde (50/1)
French-bred with a few too many wins and runs. First time blinkers applied today may improve him.
*** Mister Coffey (12/1)
French-bred, not run over further than 2m41/2. Drying ground will defintely help. I’d rather have a proven stayer though.
Lord Accord NON-RUNNER
** Mindsmadeup (40/1)
11 year old, well exposed. Ignore.
**** Come On Teddy (10/1)
Placed in the Pertemps last year. Should stay, but hasn’t run over quite this far before.
***** Omar Maretti (10/1)
2 handicap wins, might not be quite what we want, but he goes on any ground. Been backed overnight.
***** Mint Condition (33/1)
Ticks most of the boxes, no festival form. Not proven at the trip though Maybe deserves another chance. First time cheek-pieces applied.
The Mighty Don NON-RUNNER
**** Glenloe (12/1)
Gordon Elliott runner, was off for 2 years and has been eased back into it in his 3 runs back. Still a maiden after 8 starts. Too short to back with confidence.
Rocco NON-RUNNER
* Chambard (40/1)
French-bred, 10 years old, been running in small fields. Nothing to like here.
*** Larry (50/1)
Now 9, he’s got a big race in him, but more off days than on.
**** Rightplacerighttime (18/1)
Ticks lots of boxes, only ran 11 days ago and that is off putting for me.
**** Powerstation Park (40/1)
Trip shouldn’t be a problem, ground needs to dry out. He is now 9 though and this is a big step up in class.
** Red Infantry (50/1)
Lots of chases now for this 12 year old. Out of form this season and not for me.
*** Didero Vallis (50/1)
Ran 9 days ago, very disappointing then. Can’t have him after that.
Conclusion
After saying I’d rather be on a younger horse, I may have to come back to School Boy Hours. Good amateur on board. Mister Fogpatches also should be there or thereabouts. Can’t really find an each-way and the ground may have dried out by the end of the day.
Selection
MISTER FOGPATCHES @ 9/1 (Bet365)
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