BALLYMORE NOVICES’ HURDLE
(REGISTERED AS THE BARING BINGHAM)
2 Miles, 5 Furlongs - Grade 1 Novice Hurdle
Overview
Hopefully we will get another classy horse winning this. Only one each-way winner recently (we were on it).
Last 10 Winners- average 4.7 stars
2021 ***** Bob Olinger (6/4 fav)
2020 ***** Envoi Allen (4/7 fav)
2019 ***** City Island (8/1)
2018 ***** Samcro (8/11 fav)
2017 ***** Willoughby Court (14/1)
2016 **** Yorkhill (3/1)
2015 **** Windsor Park (9/2)
2014 ***** Faugheen (6/4 fav)
2013 **** The New One (7/2)
2012 ***** Simonsig (2/1 fav)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 152 or better. [10/10 OR 146+]
10/10 Had between 2 and 4 runs over hurdles. 8 had 3 runs.
10/10 Won an Irish Point-to-Point or Bumper. 6 won both.
10/10 Had won a 2m4f or 2m5f Hurdle.
9/10 Were rated within 5lbs of the RPR top rated. [Exception: Yorkhill, 8lbs]
9/10 Were aged 6. [Exception: The New One (5)]
9/10 Had finished top 2 in a Graded Hurdle. 7 had won. [Exception: City Island won an 11k race in Ireland]
9/10 Had won at least two thirds of their hurdle races. [Windsor Park won 1 of 3]
9/10 Had finished in the top 2 in all Hurdles so far. [Windsor Park was 4th.]
8/10 Had not run at a previous festival, (ie last years bumper). [Both exceptions ran well in the Bumper, 6th and 1st.]
Additionally
37 of the last 38 winners had finished in the top 2 last time out.
34 of the last 36 winners were from the top 6 in the betting.
28 of the last 29 winners were aged either 5 or 6.
21 of the last 23 winners were NH-bred.
No winner aged 4 since 1991. All 21 unplaced.
Only 1 winner aged 7. [French Holly in 1998]
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo 0-0-1
5yo 1-6-41
6yo 9-9-68
7yo 0-4-15
Fate Of Favourites LSP: +1.30
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 2-7-24
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 2-1-7
Ben Pauling 1-1-5
Nicky Henderson 1-1-11
Alan King 0-2-5
Contenders
* Haxo (125/1)
5 year old maiden. Ignore.
* Hemlock (150/1)
5 year old maiden. Ignore.
* I Am Maximus (18/1)
Gonna need more to feature here.
*** Journey With Me (7/1)
Impressive in his two wins. I always want at 3 starts, but it seems you can get away with a couple in the intermediate Novice races, probably because the horses class shines through. Anyway, he fails the Grade winner stat and is behind Sir Gerhard on what he’s shown.
* Scarface (50/1)
5 year old maiden. Ignore.
**** Sir Gerhard (8/11 fav)
Yet to win over this trip, son of Jeremy, so stamina not guaranteed. He’s a 7 year old as well, all negatives for the best horse in the field. Should be running in the Supreme, but hey-ho what do I know, we have to take him on or leave the race alone.
***** Stage Star (9/1)
The only horse to get near Sir Gerhard on ratings. Ticks every other box. Won a Grade 1 when last seen, but remains to see what he beat.
** Three Stripe Life (13/2)
The only horse to get near Sir Gerhard last time. Bred for further, so could close the gap. Currently fails plenty of trends, mainly because he’s behind a Grade 1 winner each time. Upgrade him here.
** Whatdeawant (20/1)
Beaten 8 lengths at Christmas by Ginto (Albert Bartlett favourite). There should be better horses in here, but this is his trip, with others unproven.
Conclusion
Has Willie got it right? Sir Gerhard here instead of the Supreme. I’m not a fan, however we shall see. Three Stripe Life should get closer. Stage Star is the best on trends but I’d be wanting him each-way. I like Journey With Me, but I do think the market has it right. Even if I wouldn’t back Sir Gerhard, he is the best horse in the race and his class can get him over the line.
Selection
NO BET
BROWN ADVISORY NOVICES’ CHASE
(REGISTERED AS THE BROADWAY NOVICES’ CHASE)
3 Miles, 80 Yards - Grade 1 Novice Chase
Overview
A good guide to future Gold Cup winners, though none in the last 8 years with Monkfish out for the season.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.6 stars
2021 ***** Monkfish (1/4fav)
2020 ***** Champ (4/1)
2019 ***** Topofthegame (4/1)
2018 ***** Presenting Percy (5/2 fav)
2017 **** Might Bite (7/2 fav)
2016 ***** Blaklion (8/1)
2015 *** Don Poli (13/8 fav)
2014 ***** O’Faolains Boy (12/1)
2013 *** Lord Windermere (8/1)
2012 ***** Bobs Worth (9/2)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Were horses bred for National Hunt racing, no flat runners here.
10/10 Had been a Novice Hurdler the previous season. [Might Bite & Topofthegame were 2nd season Novice Chasers, but went chasing at the earliest opportunity]
10/10 Had raced within the last 25-77 days.
10/10 Were rated to within 10lbs of the RPR top rated horse.
9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 160. [Lord Windermere (155)][All OR 144+, 8/10 OR 150+]
9/10 Had finished top 2 in a Grade 1 or 2 Chase. [Might Bite fell when cruising to victory in the Grade 1 Feltham/Kauto Star Chase]
9/10 Had started between 3 and 5 Chases. [Don Poli (2)]
9/10 Had finished in the top 2 in their last completion. [Lord Windermere was 3rd within ½ length of winner.]
9/10 Had won over 2m71/2f or more under rules. [Lord Windermere, 2m3f]
9/10 Were aged 7 or 8 years old. [Don Poli was 6]
Sire stat:
10/10 Were by a Sire who's stamina index was 11.2 furlongs or more. (Or Dam’s Sire if no rating.)
Additionally
55 of the last 57 winners had run that year.
31 of the last 34 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.
27 of the last 29 winners were British/Irish bred. [French-breds are 0-36 since 2005]
26 of the last 28 winners had started at least 3 chases.
24 of the last 29 winners were Novice Hurdlers last season.
17 of the last 22 winners were aged 7.
No horse older than 8 has won since 1992 [Minnehoma].
Only 3 6-year olds have won since 1978.
Only 1 5-year old has won since 1950.
Delta Work is the only ex-flat horse to place since 1994.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 0-0-2
6yo 1-6-20
7yo 7-10-58
8yo 2-1-19
9yo 0-2-2
Fate Of Favourites LSP: +0.88
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky Henderson 3-3-11
Willie Mullins (Ire) 2-4-16
Paul Nicholls (1-1-9
Henry De Bromhead (Ire) 0-2-5
Colin Tizzard 0-2-10
Contenders
***** Ahoy Senor (7/1)
Very good novice chaser, but beaten by Bravemansgame at Kempton in the Kauto Star Chase. Don’t know if he’ll take to the course, but did beat the same horse at Aintree over hurdles last season.
*** Beacon Edge (12/1)
Just edged out by Faouk D’Alene last time. Should turn that around with this time. Tough ask for a 2nd season hurdler yet to win over this trip.
***** Bravemansgame (11/4 fav)
Such a good jumper. Ticks all my boxes. He’s a French-bred and they have a terrible recent record in the race. Half the field is French-bred this year, so it’s a stat that could be cracked.
*** Capodanno (7/1)
Fell early against Galopin Des Champs at the Dublin Racing Festival. Will have to improve to get involved here, but not out of the question. He’s only 6, which would put me off though. French-bred.
** Dusart (25/1)
2 low level victories. Needs more, lively outsider.
**** Farouk D’Alene (12/1)
Beat Beacon Edge last time but was getting weight. More required here. French-bred.
**** Fury Road (20/1)
Grade 1 winner over 3 miles. Strangely dropped back at the DRF behind Galopin Des Champs. Stamina assured, but another 2 season hurdler, so others preferred.
** Gaillard Du Mesnil (18/1)
6 year old, unproven at the trip. Ignore. French-bred too.
**** L’Homme Presse (7/2)
French-bred. Unproven at trip, but should get it on pedigree. Lkely to feature.
** Streets Of Doyen (150/1)
Ran just 11 days go. Too long over hurdles. Need plenty more. Ignore.
***** Threeunderthrufive (16/1)
The forgotten horse. Not bothered that Cobden rides Bravemansgame. Adrian Heskin usually rides here anyway. Ticks every box (of course). Grade 2 winner so needs a little more, but has Course winning form. A nice each-way price.
Conclusion
Excellent renewal, even without Galopin Des Champs. There’s going to be tons of pace on at the front and is likely to bet set up for a closer. I can’t believe they will all go forward over 3 miles. Likely pace comes from the market principles too. I’m hopng my selection either gets his own way or settles in behind. Threeunderthroughfive is too big a price here. I can’t rule too many out and the pace angle could set it up for a Farouk D’Alene, a Fury Road or a Capodano.
Just seeing Bravemansgame is out to 3/1 with one (small) firm. He must be backable if he is that price.
Selection
THREEUNDERTHROUGHFIVE @ 18/1 (William Hill)
BRAVEMANSGAME @ 3/1 (If he drifts with the big bookies)
CORAL CUP HANDICAP HURDLE
2 Miles, 5 Furlongs, 26 Yards - Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
Overview
The only open Hurdle over the intermediate trip at the festival. The last 9 winners
were unexposed sorts, with little handicap experience, but had contested Graded Hurdles.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.5 stars
2021 ***** Heaven Help Us (33/1)
2020 ***** Dame De Compagnie (5/1 fav)
2019 *** William Henry (28/1)
2018 **** Bleu Berry (20/1)
2017 ***** Supasundae (16/1)
2016 ***** Diamond King (12/1)
2015 ***** Aux Ptits Soins (9/1)
2014 ***** Whisper (14/1)
2013 ***** Medinas (33/1)
2012 *** Son Of Flicka (16/1)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Had won at least a Class 3 hurdle or 8k race in Ireland or France.
9/10 Had run no more than 4 times that season. [Heaven Help Us ran 7 times last season, but 6 were over fences; Supasundae's 5 runs included a race at Punchestown on April 27th, which is really the season before]
9/10 Had only won, at most, 1 handicap hurdle. [Son Of Flicka won 2] and ran in 5 or less handicap hurdles. [Son Of Flicka ran in 17]
9/10 Had run in less than 10 hurdles.[Son Of Flicka (22)]
8/10 Had won between 2m11/2f and 2m5f. [Exception: Bleu Berry won over the bare 2m]
9/10 Had won earlier in the season or had raced only once. [Exception: Son Of Flicka’s figures were 9090!]
10/10 Carried no more than 15lbs than the bottom weight. [William Henry was 19lbs above].
9/10 Had last run between 24-88 days ago. [Aux Ptits Soins (181 days)]
8/10 Were aged between 6 and 8 years old. [Exceptions: 5 & 9 years old]
8/10 Were officially rated between 135-149. Exceptions 151 & 153]
7/10 Had a top 2 finish in 1 of their last 2 starts.
Additionally
19 of the last 21 winners had won no more than one handicap.
24 of the last 28 winners were all officially rated less than 149. [But 4 of the last 8 winners rated 149+]
21 of the last 26 winners carried less than 11-04.
21 of the last 28 winners had won that season.
Five horses aged older than 9 have placed since 1999.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-5-46
6yo 2-7-72
7yo 4-5-67
8yo 2-8-44
9yo 1-0-15
10yo 0-4-16
11yo 0-1-2
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -6.00
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky Henderson 3-3-32
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 1-5-16
Willie Mullins (Ire) 1-5-38
Alan King 1-2-9
Paul Nicholls 1-2-13
Jonjo O’Neill 0-3-6
Noel Meade (Ire) 0-2-4
Nigel Twiston-Davies 0-2-7
Contenders
* The Bosses Oscar (40/1)
Pulled up the last twice over fences over 3 miles. Too high in the weights, but is always popular even if he doesn’t win often.
*** Ashdale Bob (22/1)
Been busy this year and is too high in the weights for me to consider. (Was 33/1)
** Commander Of Fleet (40/1)
Former runner up of the Albert Bartlett, splitting Minella Indo & Allaho. Not gone on since then and this looks too short and too hot for him.
**** McFabulous (16/1)
Used to be thought of as a Grade 1 winner in the making, but never went on. He clearly doesn’t stay 3 miles, so why they keep pursuing that route is beyond me. Makes his handicap debut here, but must be on the downgrade now
**** Saint Felicien (6/1)
Lightly raced French Import, who has’nt done much wrong. Gordon Elliott trains, so must be respected. Only 5 and this may come too early for him. (Was 10/1)
**** Grand Roi (22/1)
Quite like him, but he doesn’t win very often, and then its in small fields over 2 miles.
* Hang In There (100/1)
Plenty of runs in the summer, suggesting he doesn’t want it too soft. Been off for 5 months. Too exposed and best form over 2 miles.
** The Shunter (12/1)
Festival winner last year, very versatile. Now 9 and has a few too many runs to be the usual winner. He will run his race and every chance of a place.
**** Gowel Road (12/1)
Look a good fit for this, will appreciate the trip and further over time. Won 2 handicaps now, so maybe showed his hand.
**** Daly Tiger (80/1)
Too old and not won at a level I’d like for this.
*** Ganapathi (20/1)
Not been seen since the Punchestown Fesitval. Been running at a good level, but doen the field in the County Hurdle last year. Can’t be recommended.
*** Christopher Wood (66/1)
Consistent without winning. Looks too exposed for this.
* Drop The Anchor (9/1)
Out of form and exposed. Can’t have him at all.
** Dans Le Vent (33/1)
9 year old, not the type for this.
**** Unexpected Party (12/1)
One for the shortlist, he’s shown his hand to the handicapper by winning 2, but could be more to come.
***** Garry Clermont (85/1)
Gets a weight pull for the defeat by Unexpected Party last time and is weighted to turn it around. One to consider.
** Call Me Lord (28/1)
Another exposed 9 year old. I’m sure he’s still got another race in him, probably not this one though.
*** Fastorslow (16/1)
Bang out of form on both big-field runs this season. Only ran once the year before and was off 603 days before that. Can’t have him here.
*** Camprond (17/2)
Ultra-consistent hurdler. Been off for 4 months isn’t going to be a plus. Been busy this season another negative with just too many runs. (was 11/1)
***** Indigo Breeze (16/1)
Hasn’t won over further than the bare 2 miles. Only 4 starts and is bred to stay further.
*** Champagne Gold (20/1)
Well down the field in last years County Hurdle. Continued to be out of form this year, and yet to prove he’s competent over this trip. (was 40/1)
*** Top Moon (125/1)
Been very busy, mixing up chases and hurdles. Looks to have too much mileage under the belt for this.
*** Maze Runner (33/1)
Another not in form, been running over 3 miles, so drop back may help, but has’nt won over the intermediate trip before and Coral Cup winner usually go up in trip not down.
*** Tronador (40/1)
Off since July, hard to recommend on that pulled-up performance.
**** Fair Frontieres (50/1)
Won a couple of low grade affairs over further, drop back proably wont help him.
*** Mars Harper (28/1)
13 runs in a Novice season is a little unusual for a Cheltenham winner. Can’t recommend.
Conclusion
I m happy to rule out quite a few exposed horses out here. My big fancy didn’t get in as well. Keeping it simple and backing the 2 five star horses.
Selections
GARRY CLERMONT @ 28/1 (William Hill, 6 places, 25/1 general 7 places, Skybet 8 places)
INDIGO BREEZE @ 16/1 (William Hill, 14/1 general)
BETWAY QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
1 Mile, 7 Furlongs, 199 Yards - Grade 1 Chase
Overview
With Arkle winners having such a good record in this, top rated favourite Shishkin should be hard to beat.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.8 stars
2021 ***** Put The Kettle On (17/2)
2020 **** Politologue (6/1)
2019 ***** Altior (4/11 fav)
2018 ***** Altior (evs fav)
2017 ***** Special Tiara (10/1)
2016 ***** Sprinter Sacre (5/1)
2015 ***** Dodging Bullets (9/2)
2014 **** Sire De Grugy (11/4 fav)
2013 ***** Sprinter Sacre (1/4 fav)
2012 ***** Finian’s Rainbow (4/1)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Had won over 2m1/2f+.
10/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 170. [OR 159+.]
10/10 Were aged 7-10.
10/10 Had won a Grade 1 Chase.
10/10 Were rated within 10lbs of the RPR top rated.
10/10 Had won 5 or more Chases.
9/10 Were racing within the last 81 days. [Exception: Politologue, 95 days.]
9/10 Won a Graded Chase last time out or ran in either the Tingle Creek (December) or Clarence House (January) Chases. [Exception: Put The Kettle On was 3rd in a Grade 1]
9/10 Finished Top 4 in an Arkle or a previous Champion Chase . [Exception: Sire De Grugy]
8/10 Had between 7 and 16 Chase starts. [Special Tiara had 22 starts and Politologue, 19]
8/10 Had run between 2 & 3 times in the season. [Sire De Grugy ran 6 times, Altior just once after slight setbacks]
Additionally
35 of the last 38 winners had won over 2m2f or more, or were C&D winners.
35 of the last 40 winners won at a single figure price.
26 of the last 37 winners were placed at a previous festival.
20 of the last 21 winners had 7 or more Chase starts.
19 of the last 20 winners were Grade 1 Chase winners.
17 of the last 18 Arkle winners to run in the following year's Champion Chase all placed. [The pulled-up injured, Douvan, being the exception]
15 of the last 17 champions were beaten. [Only Master Minded retained his title]
17 of the last 23 winners were 5/1 or shorter.
19 of the last 29 winners had won at a previous festival. (23 of last 37)
Only 1 winner aged greater than 10 since 1977.
Only 1 of the last 23 winners had run more than 4 times that season.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 0-0-3
7yo 3-6-20
8yo 2-4-22
9yo 3-2-22
10yo 2-5-11
11yo 0-3-6
12yo 0-0-2
13yo 0-0-1
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -1.64
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky Henderson 5-0-8
Henry de Bromhead (Ire) 2-4-13
Paul Nicholls 2-2-11
Tom George 0-3-8
Willie Mullins (Ire) 0-3-9
Mick Channon 0-2-4
Contenders
***** Chacan Pour Soi (13/2)
2 flops when travelling to the UK. Back to his best at the Dublin Racing Festival. Trainer says he’ll train him differently this time.
**** Energumene (7/2)
Ran a great race against Shishkin last time, hard to see where he will turn it around, but still remains a good prospect.
**** Envoi Allen (18/1)
Not really been the same after his fall at last years festival. Won a Grade 1 last time, but only faced 2 rivals.
** Funambule Sivola (40/1)
Decent win last time in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. This requires more.
*** Nube Negra (14/1)
2nd last year, but flopped along with Chacan Pour Soi in the Tingle Creek when last seen.
** Politologue (80/1)
Winner 2 seasons ago in a weak renewal, but now 11 and hasn’t been seen since November.
***** Shishkin (5/6 fav)
Worthy favourite and 7 from 7 over fences. Epic battle with Energumene at Ascot in January. Perfect.
**** Put The Kettle On (33/1)
She’s the forgotten horse, after powering up the hill and winning last year. Well beaten on both starts this season, including a 42 length battering on New Years Day. Cheltenham may spark her again with a record of 4 from 5 in Chases.
Conclusion
Shishkin
should win. Hopefully is
will be a classic. Put
The Kettle is ignored
by the market again @ 33/1. Nope keep it simple.
Selection
NO BET
GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY CHASE
3 Miles, 6 Furlongs, 37 Yards - Grade 2 Chase
Overview
Ran over an ever-decreasing 3 laps, it breaks up the day quite nicely. Tiger Roll will be looking for his 4th win in the race before he retires.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.2 stars
2021 *** Tiger Roll (9/2)
2020 *** Easysland (3/1)
2019 ***** Tiger Roll (5/4 fav)
2018 ***** Tiger Roll (7/1)
2017 ***** Cause Of Causes (4/1)
2016 ***** Josies Orders (15/8 fav)
2015 *** Rivage D’Or (16/1)
2014 ***** Balthazar King (4/1)
2013 ***** Big Shu (14/1)
2012 *** Balthazar King (11/2)
10-year Trends
10/10 Had run in between 7 and 22 Chases.
10/10 Had won a Chase over 3 miles or more.
10/10 Had an A.RPR of 154 or more [(OR 134+). Since it became a level stakes race in 2016, the A.RPR has been 163+. (OR 142+)
9/10 Were rated within 10lbs of the RP Top Rated horse. [Excpetion: Easysland was 18lb, 2nd Top Rated behind Tiger Roll.]
9/10 Had experienced between 1 and 6 Cross Country Chases in their career. [Exception: Rivage D’Or debuted in 2015.]
8/10 Had raced 3 or more times in the season. [Tiger Roll, twice, twice!!]
8/10 Aged between 8 and 10 years old. [Easysland (6) and previous winner, Tiger Roll (11)]
8/10 Placed in a Cheltenham or Punchestown Cross Country Chase that season or had won at a previous festival.
7/10 Top 5 last time out in a Chase.
7/10 Irish Trained. [Exceptions: Philip Hobbs (twice) and Davis Cottin (Fra)]
Additionally
16 of the 17 winners had won over 3 miles or more.
12 of the last 15 winners were aged 8-10.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 1-1-6
7yo 0-1-9
8yo 4-0-17
9yo 2-4-29
10yo 2-6-31
11yo 01-9-25
12yo 0-3-25
13yo 0-0-6
14yo 0-2-4
15yo 0-0-2
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -3.88
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 3-4-11 (and Denise Foster 1-0-3)
Philip Hobbs 2-1-6
Enda Bolger (Ire) 1-4-24
Peter Maher (Ire) 1-1-4
David Cottin (Fra) 1-1-4
Willie Mullins (Ire) 0-3-13
Martin Keighley 0-2-5 (plus 1 DSQ)
Kim Bailey 0-2-5
Emmanuel Clayeux (Fra) 0-2-7
Contenders
Alpha Des Obeaux (66/1)
4th last year, but not run as well this season. Yet to win over 3 miles and pretty exposed now.
**** Back On The Lash (25/1)
Won one of this season races, and Martin Keightley has ‘won’ the race before. He’s a little short of Tiger Roll’s rating. One for the shortlist.
*** Brahma Bull (20/1)
Yet to run in conditions, and now older than any winner (bar Tiger Roll, last season).
**** Delta Work (6/1)
Very much like when Tiger Roll took over from Cause Of Causes, Delta Work will probably be given a light time on his first try at a Cross Country. So best watched.
** Diesel D’Allier (14/1)
Beat Potter’s Corner by a nose when last seen. 2 stars is very mean. He’s well short of Tiger Roll and a few others and a little exposed now. But course experience makes him a possible.
*** Easysland (12/1)
Winner 2 years ago, well beaten into 2nd last year. 2 poor runs over hurdles for new trainer Jonjo O’Neill don’t seem to have sparked him.
***** Midnight Maestro (20/1)
Won last time against Shady Operator. One for the shortlist.
*** Michouka (80/1)
Been around for ages, only 1 win past 2 miles. Ignore.
**** Plan Of Attack (25/1)
Decent runs on his first 2 tries. He’s not going to be good enough to win, but could get a place.
** Poker Party (20/1)
Yet to run over a course, hard to fancy on the form he’s been showing. Was 66/1 though.
** Potters Corner (40/1)
Good runs in his fledgling Cross County career. However he’s now 12 and it’s showed this season. On balance must be passed over.
*** Prengarde (8/1)
6 year old with a similar profile to Easysland (as a 6yo). Disappointed in his comeback run, but definitely needed it. French form is solid. Short enough in the market.
***** Shady Operator (11/1)
Beaten a neck by Midnight Maestro last time. Both are on the place shortlist.
** Step Back (66/1)
Now 12, his only attempt on the course was a creditable 6th on December 2020. Wonder why he’s not run in either of Cheltenham’s cross country races this season.
**** Tiger Roll (7/4 fav)
Should be his swansong and will be cheered home regardless of whether you’ve back him.
**** Tout Est Permis (33/1)
A few too many runs and not likely to win. 3rd behind Midnight Maestro and Shady Operator last time and badly off against them both this time.
Conclusion
We all want to see Tiger Roll win, he’s probably the right price. Delta Work surely won’t steal his crown today, but take over from him. 2 to look at are Midnight Maestro and Shady Operator, who both fought out a thriller over at Punchestown in a key Irish cross country.
Selections
MIDNIGHT MAESTRO @ 22/1 (betfred, 20/1 general)
SHADY OPERATOR @ 14/1 (currently 11/1 with Bet365 and William Hill, I want 14/1 I think. Skybet are doing 5 places if waiting until closer to the off.) No bet at 11/1 anyway.
JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL
CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP CHASE
1 Mile, 7 Furlongs, 199 Yards - Grade 3 Handicap Chase
Overview
Previously the final race of the festival, this will be the 2nd year on the Old Course on Day Two. The course is about 80 years shorter, but on the sharper track. Horses jumping is a bit more important. It will remain to be seen whether any of the Trends are affected. Sky Pirate kind of did miss quite a few last year. He won off of a handicap mark of 152. The highest in this since 1992.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.3 stars
2021 *** Sky Pirate (14/1)
2020 ** Chosen Mate (7/2 fav)
2019 **** Croco Bay (66/1)
2018 ***** Le Prezien (15/2)
2017 ***** Rock The World (10/1)
2016 **** Solar Impulse (28/1)
2015 ***** Next Sensation (16/1)
2014 ***** Savello (16/1)
2013 ***** Alderwood (3/1 fav)
2012 ***** Bellvano (20/1)
10-Year Trends
9/10 Hadn’t won a handicap that season. [Exception: Sky Pirate won 2 last season Chases]
9/10 Had won over 2 miles 1/2 furlong or more. [Exception: Chosen Mate (2m)] May change as the Old Course is a little shorter.
9/10 Were aged between 6 and 9 years old. [Croco Bay was 12]
8/10 Were officially Rated under 148. [Exceptions: 150 & 152]
8/10 Had raced at a previous festival. [4 in this race, plus another who was a NR]
8/10 Had raced less than 12 times over fences. [Croco Bay (25) & Sky Pirate (13)]
8/10 Finished in the top 3 in one of their last 2 completed races.
8/10 Hadn’t raced more than 4 times since August. [Exceptions: 5 & 6 times (1 Chase)]
8/10 Had a A.RPR of 161+ [Exceptions: 158 (twice)]
8/10 Were within 5lb of the RP Top Rated [Exceptions: 8lb (twice)]
Additionally
20 of the last 23 winners had raced less than 13 times over fences.
20 of the last 22 winners were aged 10 or less.
16 of the last 22 winners had carried under 11-01 (incl claimers)
23 of the last 31 winners had raced within 45 days.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 0-1-6
6yo 1-3-18
7yo 2-10-43
8yo 4-10-60
9yo 2-2-41
10yo 0-2-29
11yo 0-2-10
12yo 1-0-4
13yo 0-0-2
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -2.50
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Paul Nicholls 2-2-18
Nicky Henderson 1-5-20
Michael Scudamore 1-1-3
Gordon Elliott (Ire 1-1-4
Ben Case (Ire) 1-1-5
Jessica Harrington (Ire) 1-1-6
Jonjo O’Neill 1-1-10
Venetia Williams 0-3-13
Noel Meade (Ire) 0-2-2
Arthur Moore (Ire) 0-2-3
Joseph O’Brien (Ire) 0-2-4
Kerry Lee 0-2-5
Contenders
**** Sky Pirate (12/1)
Winner last year, 4lb higher now. Managed to go without a win the whole campaign, but doesn’t look like he is laid up for this.
**** Andy Dufresne (7/1 fav)
High in the weights, and only 1 run this season. I want more.
*** Editeur De Gite (10/1)
Two wins this season, and high in the weights.
*** A Wave Of The Sea (25/1)
Also won this season, and not really weighted to win this.
*** Exit Poll (40/1)
Poor run last time. Lack of festival form too.
**** Before Midnight (16/1)
2 season wins, one at the course though. Feels more like the winner than some of these above.
**** Embittered (11/1)
Last years favourite, fell. Second season novice, wouldn’t surprise me if he ran well
*** Buddy Rich (17/2)
These trends don’t do him any favours. Looks laid out for this by Gordon Elliott.
*** Elixir De Nutz (18/1)
Former Grade 1 winning novice hurdler. Won his last 2, but only in small fields. Passed over here.
*** Amarillo Sky (17/2)
2 Handicap wins and been a bit busy for the usual winner.
**** Dancing On My Own (18/1)
Pulled-up only appearance at festival, and well beaten this year.
*** Il Ridato (20/1)
Only 5, and won a handicap this year.
**** Thyme White (12/1)
Another with a handicap win. Ticking all the other boxes
**** Frero Banbou (14/1)
Handicap win and a little busy this campaign.
*** Poseidon (25/1)
All fallen apart since his handicap win in October.
***** Gumball (28/1)
Perfect on trends, I’ve always found him to be a little weak, perhaps its all been in the plan.
*** Capuccimix (50/1)
Very poor after summer handicap win, a few more starts than the usual winner.
***** For Pleasure (25/1)
Another one who’s been running in small fields. Lots of starts, lots of pace in this and he likes to be up there.
**** Hasankey (40/1)
Won his last 3 handicap starts. This his toughest assignment by far.
**** Global Citizen (40/1)
Hasn’t run over fences for over a year after finding it all too tough in big graded races. Been running well over hurdles since, and now switched back for this. Interesting.
Conclusion
I’m happy to rule out half the field (11) who have won a handicap this season. Previous to last year, the last 9 winners either didn’t win or were winning novice chases. This could be connected to the New Course or not, but I’ll take my chances.
Gumball is perfect on trends, I think he’s a bit weak. I will be putting him up and he was backed earlier in the week. Global Citizen is a big old price as he comes back to chases, he’s a little old now (10) but is quite lightly raced. He was running in the top chases and was 4th in an Arkle. He’s now 20lbs lower than when he beat Rouge Vif in a Grade 2. Another tough handicap, Buddy Rich deserves a mention but he is not served well on the trends. Lots of money for Andy Dufresne (10/1 → 7/1), who might be Pricewise.
Selection
GUMBALL @ 25/1 (Unibet 5 places, 22/1 general 6pl)
GLOBAL CITIZEN @ 40/1 (General 6 places)
WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER
2 Mile, 87 Yards - Grade 1 Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race
Overview
Last year’s race was a cracker. Sir Gerhard beat Kilcruit. This year we also have 2 fine looking horse for the future. We have a decent record in the race, Graded form is important.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.1 stars
2021 ***** Sir Gerhard (85/40)
2020 *** Ferny Hollow (11/1)
2019 ***** Envoi Allen (2/1 fav)
2018 ***** Relegate (25/1)
2017 ***** Fayonagh (7/1)
2016 **** Ballyandy (5/1)
2015 ***** Moon Racer (9/2 fav)
2014 *** Silver Concorde (16/1)
2013 ** Briar Hill (25/1)
2012 **** Champagne Fever (16/1)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Won last time.
10/10 Were aged 5 or 6.
10/10 Had won a bumper worth at least £4,000.
9/10 Hadn't raced for at least 33 days. [ Exception: Ferny Hollow (16 days)]
9/10 Had an A.RPR of 126 or more. [Exception: Briar Hill had won their only start.]
8/10 Had won at least half of their bumpers. [Exceptions: Silver Concorde and Ferny Hollow had won 1 of their 3 runs]
8/10 Had raced in less than 2 or 3 bumpers. [Exceptions: Briar Hill (1) and Ballyandy (4)]
7/10 Had won a bumper with 11 or more runners. [Exceptions won a PtP with 11, and 2 were 2nd in 13/20 runner bumpers]
Additionally
27 of the last 29 winners had won last time out.
23 of the last 24 winners were aged 5 or 6.
19 of the last 21 winners had won at least 50% of their bumper starts.
17 of the last 20 winners had won a bumper worth £4k or more.
22 of the last 29 winners were Irish-bred.
20 of the last 29 winners had won a bumper with 14 or more runners.
22 of the last 29 winners were trained in Ireland.
21 of the last 29 winners were from the first 6 in the market.
.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo 0-3-29
5yo 6-14-129
6yo 4-3-49
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -2.50
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 5-9-37
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 2-1-9
Philip Hobbs 0-2-6
Contenders
** Ain’t No Sunshine (150/1)
Won a poor affair on debut in February. Can’t recommend.
**** American Mike (5/2)
Lovely listed winner by 17 lengths last time. Off since December. Should go close.
* Authorised Speed (80/1)
4th last time, not shown anything so far.
*** Call Me Harry (150/1)
Won 2 low grade contests. Needs a lot more
* Cillians Charm (200/1)
Beaten on debut. Ignore.
** Esperti (200/1)
Well beaten last time. Not for me.
***** Facile Vega (13/8 fav)
Easy success in Grade 2 last time. The one to beat.
* Gadot (200/1)
3rd and 7th so far. Avoid.
**** Houlanbatordechais (16/1)
2 wins, both in October, both shorter than this trip. Short on rating.
**** James’s Gate (16/1)
Won on debut on heavy at Punchestown. This is completely different.
***** Joyeux Machin (33/1)
Beaten 6 lengths by Facile Vega on debut. Perfect on the trends.
**** Madmansgame (40/1)
Won only 1 run, 22 days ago. More required.
**** Music Drive (50/1)
Beaten by Redemption Day on debut. Won in a small field, just 17 days ago.
* Ocean Of Mercy (50/1)
3rd last time, not good enough so far.
***** Our Jester (50/1)
Won last 2 starts, last a Class 2, raced 4 times in total. Nico de Boinville rides.
**** Redemption Day (13/2)
Only won a race with 6 runners, short in the betting on that.
***** Seabank Bistro (50/1)
Won his only start, runner-up has won since. Well down the pecking order in the Mullins yard by jockey bookings. But sometimes they win. More to come at a price?
* Spanish Present (200/1)
No chance on what he’s shown.
**** Top Dog (66/1)
Being the 4th highest rated horse in the race, at 66/1, seems quite ridiculous. Won a listed contest last time, but his only victory in 4 starts. I do like the fact that he’s been at it a while. He shouldn’t be 66/1 anyway.
**** Viva Devito (50/1)
Been off for too long in my eyes, and doesn’t look good enough on what we’ve seen.
**** Poetic Music (50/1)
4 year old mare. Won a listed contest last time, but hard to recommend that age winning.
* Rosey Redrum (33/1)
Just behind Top Dog in a listed contest. Mares have had a good recent record in the race, but not 4 year olds. Usually goes to winners too and she needs a lot more here.
Conclusion
Looks like the market is saying its between 3 horses. I think it’s between 2. Facile Vega and American Mike are by far the best 2 horses on what we’ve seen. Joyeaux Machin, beaten by Facile Vega is perfect on the trends, but unlikely to reverse the form and I don’t want to be fighting for 3rd place (maybe 2nd). There are still some tasty prices around in the without favourite(s) market. Top Dog is the wrong price and can also be backed there.
Selection
JOYEAUX MACHIN @ 14/1 (without FV & AM) – Bet365 only bookie I’ve looked at for this market. Without FV is 20/1. William Hill may have better prices.
TOP DOG @ 28/1 (without FV & AM) Without FV is 40/1.
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