SKY BET SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE
2 Miles, 87 Yards - Grade 1 Novice Hurdle
Overview
What a great start to the festival, 3 possible superstars and no back numbers in behind.
Last 10 Winners - average 4.6 stars
2021 ***** Appreciate It (8/11 fav)
2020 ***** Shishkin (6/1)
2019 **** Klassical Dream (6/1)
2018 ***** Summerville Boy (9/1)
2017 ** Labaik (25/1)
2016 ***** Altior (4/1)
2015 ***** Douvan (2/1 fav)
2014 ***** Vautour (7/2 jt fav)
2013 ***** Champagne Fever (5/1)
2012 ***** Cinders And Ashes (10/1)
10-year Trends
10/10 Had won over 2 miles.
10/10 Had an Adjusted Racing Post Rating (A.RPR) of at least 150. All had an Official Rating (OR) of 142+. 8 of last 9 had an OR of 150 or more.
9/10 Were aged 5 or 6. Appreciate It was 7 last year.
9/10 Had run between 3 and 5 times over hurdles. [Klassical Dream had 7 runs (5 were in France)]
9/10 Had run less than 11 times in total in their career. [Labaik had 15, but refused to start in 6 of the last 8, flat and jumps]
9/10 Had run within the last 67 days. [Altior (80 days)]
9/10 Were not flat-bred horses. [Labaik started on the flat, Klassical Dream did run on the flat as a 3 year old after Hurdles debut]
9/10 Had won last time out (LTO) [Labaik (RR), but won his last 'race'.]
9/10 Were rated within 10lbs of the Top A.RPR rated horse. [Champagne Fever (13lbs)]
8/10 Had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Hurdle. [Labaik, a Grade 3, had refused in 2 Grade 1&2 races, Shishkin won a Listed Hurdle]
7/10 Had won at least 50% of their hurdles. [Of the exceptions, 2 had ‘reasons’]
Additionally
Only one 4-year old has won in the last 47 years.[Hors La Loi III in 1999]
42 of the last 47 winners were aged 5 or 6.
25 of the last 27 winners had run within the last 68 days. 21 of those, within the last 45 days.
22 of the last 25 winners had won last time.
14 of the last 18 winners had run in 4 or more hurdles races.
Flown (blinkered) in 1992, was the last horse to win with headgear. 36 horses beaten. He’s also the last horse to win after just one hurdle run.
Ages (Win-Place-Runs)
4yo 0-0-2
5yo 4-11-64
6yo 5-9-67
7yo 1-0-10
8yo 0-0-4
Fate Of Favourites Level Stakes Profit: -1.77
Top Trainers (Win-Place-Runs)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 5-3-29
Nicky Henderson 2-7-17
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 1-2-7
Olly Murphy 0-2-2
Henry De Bromhead (Ire) 0-2-7
Contenders
* Bring On The Night (33/1)
Made his debut for Willie Mullins, just a couple of weeks ago. He did it easily enough. Can’t hit the trends from that, but could easily come on for the run and a lively outsider.
***** Constitution Hill (9/4 fav)
2 comfortable wins at Sandown. I think only 2 runs is a negative in most of the races at the festival. I think he’s behind others here.
***** Dysart Dynamo (11/4)
Another with only 2 runs. Looked great on both his starts.
***** Jonbon (4/1)
Perfect on the trends, 3 from 3. Think he’s the real deal. We shall see.
*** Jpr One (100/1)
Well beaten in the Betfair Hurdle. Needs lot more to feature here.
*** Kilcruit (13/2)
Turned over at 1/14 fav and 4/9 fav, before breaking his duck at the 3rd attempt. Too short in the betting to be messing about with here
**** Mighty Potter (10/1)
A bit of a forgotten horse in this. Beaten at Fairyhouse in November on good ground, but his form seems better with some cut in the ground. Hasn’t been seen since Christmas win.
** Shallwehaveonemore (33/1)
Didn’t do his credentials in this any favours when not winning the Dovecote last time. Not good enough.
** Silent Revolution (66/1)
Won his only start, but that was back in November. Not seen since. Ignore.
Conclusion
It’s hard to see anything else winning this apart from the front 3 in the betting. I’m not convinced winning a Sandown Hurdle on heavy ground should make you favourite against a Willie Mullins horse. I’d rather be with Dysart Dynamo or Jonbon, and at the prices, Jonbon is going to be the pick at the prices. Maybe an opportunity to back both will arise.
Selection
JONBON @ 11/2 (Paddypower, Betfair)
SPORTING LIFE ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY
NOVICES' CHASE
1 Mile, 7 Furlongs, 199 Yards - Grade 1 Novice Chase
Overview
Ferny Hollow was the banker of the meeting before a setback ruled him out last month. It’s now a wide open affair.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.2 stars
2021 ***** Shishkin (4/9 fav)
2020 *** Put The Kettle On (16/1)
2019 *** Duc Des Genievres (5/1)
2018 ***** Footpad (5/6 fav)
2017 ***** Altior (1/4 fav)
2016 ***** Douvan (1/4 fav)
2015 ***** Un De Sceaux (4/6 fav)
2014 ** Western Warhorse (33/1)
2013 ***** Simonsig (8/15 fav)
2012 ***** Sprinter Sacre (8/15 fav)
10-year Trends
10/10 Were not flat-bred horses.
10/10 Had won last time.
10/10 Were aged 6 or 7 years old.
9/10 Had run within the last 77 days. [Exception: Put The Kettle On (114 days)]
9/10 Top 2 in all Chase finishes.[Exception: Duc Des Genievres (3rd)]
9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 165 or more. (OR 151+, Put The Kettle On +7lb mares allowance) [Western Warhorse (148), but had only 1 chase start]
8/10 Rated within 5lbs of the RPR Top Rated, 7 were Top Rated. [Western Warhorse (23lbs) & Put The Kettle On (9lb)]
8/10 Ran to a Hurdles rating of 149 or more. [Western Warhorse 130 and Put The Kettle On 128]. 6 had won a Grade 1 Hurdle.
8/10 Won a Graded Novice Chase between 2m and 2m3f. Both exception won over further, and not in Graded company.
8/10 Had 3 or 4 Chase starts. Both exceptions less.
7/10 Had a course win or had a top 3 finish at a previous festival.
Additionally
33 of the last 35 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on their last start.
28 of the last 30 winners started at 9/1 or less.
22 of the last 24 winners had not unseated/fallen in their chase career.
21 of the last 23 winners were aged 5-7.
19 of the last 22 winners had a hurdles rating of 142+,
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 0-1-4
6yo 6-4-21
7yo 3-8-35
8yo 0-0-9
9yo 0-1-7
10yo 0-0-1
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -1.53
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky Henderson 4-2-8
Willie Mullins (Ire) 4-1-10
Henry de Bromhead (Ire) 1-2-11
Joseph O’Brien (Ire) 0-2-2
Colin Tizzard 0-2-3
Contenders
**** Blue Lord (7/2)
The best Irish hope here. Fell when booked for 2nd in the Supreme Novices last year. Lucky to win last time after Riviere D’etel blunder at the last. She’ flat-bred, having run 3 times in France. They don’t have a great record recently, but this is a weak race.
* Brave Seasca (25/1)
Beaten by Edwardstone last time. Not good enough on that form, but could get a place. No course form always a worry.
** Coeur Sublime (16/1)
Beaten by Ferny Hollow twice this season, he came good last time, but will need more here. He was a good hurdler, so place chances.
**** Edwardstone (5/2 fav)
Very likely to win a sub-standard Arkle. He’s basically the wrong age (8yo) than the usual winner and his form at Cheltenham isn’t great. But he’s still got a great chance here.
* Gabynako (20/1)
Supplemented for the race. Don’t think he’ll be winning, but they’ve obviously seen how weak it is. 3rd last time (beaten 28 lengths). Didn’t get past the first fence in the Martin Pipe last year.
** Haut En Couleurs (8/1)
Won on debut, but fell early in the Blue Lord/Riviere D’etel race at Leopardstown.
5 year olds have a terrible record but this is an average Arkle. Certainly can’t be ruled out, but really, I can’t see him winning.
** Red Rookie (100/1)
Should be outclassed here.
* Saint Sam (8/1)
Made some mistakes when 3rd to Blue Lord & Riviere D’etel. Still only 4 ¼ lengths behind in the end. If he learns from that, he’ll definitely have a squeak of a place and maybe the win. Negatives are, he’s a 5 year old, and with only 2 chase starts.
** War Lord (40/1)
Beaten 16 lengths by Edwardstone. Should be out classed again.
* Magic Daze (16/1)
Mare, who will need more to get involved, even in this.
** Riviere D’etel (4/1)
Should have won last time. She’s only 5 and did start on the flat in France. Another one to consider, though only in a weak renewal like this.
Conclusion
Looks a match between Edwardstone and Blue Lord. My limit for backing is always 3/1, so there may be an opportunity to back both, but at the moment Blue Lord looks the only bet. Of the rest, nothing really stands out at a price, but it’s a below par renewal and I won’t put you off whatever you fancy.
Selection
BLUE LORD @ 9/2 (general)
ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
3 Miles, 1 Furlong - Grade 3 Handicap Chase
Overview
The first handicap of the festival, and usually one for the home trainers to take from their Irish counterparts. Horses with previous form in this race often run well again. There only seems to be 2 such horses this time around.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.1 stars
2021 **** Vintage Clouds (28/1)
2020 ***** The Conditional (15/2)
2019 ***** Beware The Bear (10/1)
2018 ***** Coo Star Sivola (5/1 fav)
2017 **** Un Temps Pour Tout (9/1)
2016 ***** Un Temps Pour Tout (11/1)
2015 **** The Druids Nephew (8/1)
2014 ***** Holywell (10/1)
2013 *** Golden Chieftain (28/1)
2012 **** Alfie Sherrin (14/1)
10-year Trends
10/10 Won over 2 miles 71/2 furlongs or more.
10/10 Had run within the last 71 days.
10/10 Had a British Trainer.
9/10 Aged between 6 and 9 years old [Vintage Clouds, aged 11, upset the applecart last year]
9/10 Had run between 3 and 5 times that season. [Golden Chieftain racked up 7 before winning this]
9/10 Had achieved a Chase RPR of 143. [Alfie Sherrin was the lowest rated winner (135)]
9/10 Wore headgear. [4 blinkers, 5 cheekpieces] The youngster, Coo Star Sivola, didn’t need them.]
8/10 Had run at a previous Festival. [Exceptions: Golden Chieftain & The Conditional, who had finished 3rd and 1st in a Cheltenham Chase that season.]
8/10 OR no bigger than 148. [Previous winner Un Temps Pour Tout (155) & the previously placed Beware The Bear (151)]
8/10 Finished in the top 3 in one of the last 2 starts. 2 winners were unplaced in decent Hurdle races on last appearance.
8/10 Had run less than 10 times over fences. [Only race specialist, Vintage Clouds, had more than 14.] Novice and Second Season Chasers do well.
Additionally
The last 16 winners had between 2 & 7 runs that season.
21 of the last 23 winners were aged between 7 and 10.
20 of the last 22 winners had won over 3 miles or more.
No Irish-Trained winner since 2006. Only 2 since 1967.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 1-2-14
7yo 2-9-42
8yo 4-6-66
9yo 2-10-53
10yo 0-1-26
11yo 1-2-13
12yo 0-0-2
13yo 0-0-1
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -7.00
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
David Pipe 2-2-10
Jonjo O'Neill 2-1-12
Sue Smith 1-2-9
Nicky Henderson 1-2-16
Neil Mulholland 1-1-11
Donald McCain 0-2-2
Kim Bailey 0-2-3
Lucinda Russell 0-2-4
Contenders
** Frodon (14/1)
Great servant to racing over the years, still only 10. However this will surely test all his resolve under top-weight over 3 miles plus. Can’t be selected.
*** Lostintranslation (20/1)
Was 3rd in the Gold Cup just 2 seasons ago, but has fallen off the radar. Won at Ascot in November, but this weight and his age should count against him.
**** Does He Know (7/1 jfav)
High in the weights, but ticks a lot of boxes. Kim Bailey stable form is a worry, on balance and at the price, I’m happy to look elsewhere.
*** Ben Dundee (18/1)
Been running well without winning, too old now. Place chance at best.
** Noble Yeats (9/1)
Seems like his 2nd behind the talented Ahoy Senor, has him at this short price. Hasn’t won over this far yet and has no course form in a race that throws up horses who’ve run in the race before. You should also fear that he’s been a little too busy this year.
*** Floueur (10/1)
Good 3rd behind Galopin Des Champs last year. 3rd behind Death Duty at a trip on heavy last time. Has yet to win over 3 miles and is Irish-trained.
*** Foxy Jacks (33/1)
Good 2nd in a 2m5 handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival. Don’t think he’ll stay.
**** Doctor Duffy (33/1)
Irish-trained and out of form, so I can’t have him here.
***** Tea Clipper (33/1)
Well beaten on 2 of his 3 starts, but in graded company. Has had a wind operation since that defeat to Bravemansgame. The fact that he doesn’t look a stayer is his only negative. It’s a big negative.
*** Death Duty (7/1 jfav)
Grade 1 winning hurdler, who never went on. Won over 3m 4f last time. The fact that he’s now 11 and Irish trained is not a positive.
**** Fantastikas (10/1)
Won last time over 3 miles. Ticks lots of boxes. Hasn’t run at the festival before.
**** Vintage Clouds (16/1)
Last year’s winner, at the age of 11. He’s just 1lb higher this year. Can go well again.
***** Rapper (33/1)
Novice, who’s been winning small field handicaps. Ran well for a while at the festival 2 years ago, before fading into 7th in the Pertemps.
*** Discordantly (20/1)
Won well to get into this, probably didn’t need to worry in the end. That was over 2m5f and just 9 days ago. That looks a very short turnaround here. Looks a little exposed and is Irish-trained. No.
**** Grumpy Charley (25/1)
3 starts for this Novice. Yet to win over 3 miles. Down the field, 6th, in the Supreme Last year. Not for me.
***** Kitealy Briggs (20/1)
Ticks most of the boxes, but the important one is the distance. All his wins over a lot shorter, so on balance, he’s passed over.
**** Full Back (14//1)
Course winner over a trip, albeit over the New Course. One for the shortlist.
**** Corach Rambler (12/1)
Unseated in Ascot race that Does He Know won. Was favourite that day. He shouldn’t be this price and another for the shortlist.
*** Run To Milan (40/1)
Won a Class 2 chase over 3 miles last time. He’s now 10 and at his highest ever rating. Difficult to recommend as he’ll need to improve more to win this.
**** Our Power (16/1)
Runs from 2lbs out of the handicap. Decent third in the Coral Trophy at Kempton last time. Hasn’t won over 3 miles or more yet, and should find a few too good. Place chance at best.
** One More Fleurie (50/1)
Only 2 runs this season and badly out of form. Off since being pulled up in the Ladbrokes Trophy in November.
* Belagus (40/1)
Fails plenty of trends, and should be ignored. First try at 3 miles was in a Pertemps Hurdle qualifier. Should stay on pedigree, but I’m not siding with him this time.
**** Oscar Elite (20/1)
Excellent 2nd in the Albert Bartlett last year, but still a maiden after 4 chase starts. Ticks a few boxes but 4lbs out of the handicap.
*** Gericault Roque (16/1)
5lbs out of the handicap. Fails a few trends here, but did come 2nd at Warwick over 3m 5f last time.
Conclusion
Usually you ignore the Irish Trainers and back a horse that ran well last year. Both runners have flaws this time. Would be nice to see the grey, Vintage Clouds, run well at 12 years old. Discordantly was 6th, but don’t fancy him this time, having only run 9 days ago. Course form is important here and Full Back ticks plenty of boxes, I’d be against Corach Rambler, just because I don’t really like ‘unseats’ last time out, but he’s similar to Full Back with a course win this season.. Of those who I’ve put up as a 5 star, Rapper looks the more likely. I’m much more bullish in this usually, but this looks a particularly wide open event this year
Selections
FULL BACK e/w @ 16/1 (general, 7 places William Hill & Betfair)
RAPPER e/w @ 50/1 (Paddypower)
UNIBET CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY
2 Miles, 87 Yards - Grade 1 Hurdle
Overview
Honeysuckle ran a lovely race last year and kick-started Rachael Blackmore’s (and Henry de Bromhead’s) fantastic festival. This year she seems to face little in opposition, with horses she’s already beaten and the usual under-achiving 5 year olds out of their juvenile campaigns. One she hasn’t faced is Appreciate It, who won the Supreme last year in impressive style, but has had a troubled campaign. If one can get them ready after a year off, it would be his trainer, Willie Mullins. Teahupoo looks the best of the 5 year olds.
Last
10 Winners- average 3.9
stars
2021 ***** Honeysuckle (11/10 fav)
2020 **** Epatante (2/1 fav)
2019 * Espoir D’Allen (16/1)
2018 ***** Buveur D'Air (4/6 fav)
2017 **** Buveur D'Air (5/1)
2016 **** Annie Power (5/2 fav)
2015 ***** Faugheen (4/5 fav)
2014 **** Jezki (9/1)
2013 **** Hurricane Fly (13/8 fav)
2012 *** Rock On Ruby (11/1)
10-year Trends
10/10 Had won at the distance. (9 over at least the extended trip)
10/10 Had run within the last 78 days.
9/10 Were rated within 8lbs of the RP Top Rated horse. [Espoir D’Allen (17lbs)]
9/10 Had between 5 and 12 Hurdle runs. [Hurricane Fly (19) was a previous winner.]
9/10 Had won a Class 1 Hurdle that season, 6 won a Grade 1. [Annie Power had just 1 prep run before winning]
8/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 168 or more. [10/10 OR 157+]. [Exceptions: Buveur D’Air, 163(was Novice Chasing) and Espoir D’Allen, 162]
8/10 Had won a Grade 1 Hurdle. [Exceptions: Grade 3 & Listed]
8/10 Were aged between 6 and 8 years old. [Hurricane Fly (9) was a previous winner, Espoir D’Allen (5)]
8/10 Had won all their hurdle that season. [Exceptions were 2nd & 4th in Grade 1 Hurdles.]
Additionally
30 of the last 32 winners had won that season.
32 of the last 38 winners had won last time.
27 of the last 31 winners were from the first 5 in the betting.
24 of the last 30 winners had placed at a previous festival.
22 of the last 34 winners had won at Cheltenham.
Only 4 9 year-olds have won since 1951. Sea Pigeon was 10 & 11 in 1980 & 1981. [Aged 10 and older are 0/29 since then]
Only 2 5 year-olds have won since 1985. From 107 runners.
No reigning Supreme Novice Winner has won since 1971.
Since 1993, only 3 winners had not run in that calendar year.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-1-23
6yo 3-6-24
7yo 4-5-24
8yo 1-5-21
9yo 1-1-8
10yo 0-1-4
11yo 0-1-2
13yo 0-0-1
Fate Of Favourites LSP: +4.69
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 3-8-24
Nicky Henderson 3-4-24
Gavin Cromwell (Ire) 1-1-2
Henry De Bromhead (Ire) 1-1-6
Contenders:
* Adagio (18/1)
Ran a good race behind Quilixios in last year’s Triumph. That form is not working out, but creditable 2nd in the Greatwood on seasonal debut in November and another 2nd behind Goshen last time. 5 year old who isn’t good enough yet.
*** Appreciate It (4/1)
Last year’s Supreme Hurdle Winner by a record margin. Was due to go chasing, but had a setback or two and has aborted those plans this season. Will have been off for the year since that success and will be tough to win this off that long. If he does, then he’s a super horse, but his price doesn’t allow many “ifs”.
* Glory And Fortune (80/1)
Betfair Hurdle winner. Pretty exposed now, so that didn’t improve him much for this and he’s still unlikely to trouble the judges.
* Not So Sleepy (100/1)
Quirky. So you never know, but now too old, considering he’s not featured in the finish in his 2 attempts.
* Saint Roi (40/1)
Shown very little since his County Hudle smash up 2 years ago. Regularly beaten by Honeysuckle or Sharjah.
** Teahupoo (9/1)
I quite liked him for the Juvenile races last year, but he didn’t run here and then got beaten by Jeff Kidder at Faityhouse in April. Done nothing wrong this year, but this 5 year old needs more. There’s no depth in this years race and could run to a place at a price.
* Tommy’s Oscar (33/1)
Not quite top level and fails plenty of trends, The Hamilton’s own and train, so the fairytale angle is there for TV.
* Zanahiyr (20/1)
5 year old, another who gets beaten by Honeysuckle or Sharjah every time. Fails too many trends to mention.
***** Epatante (14/1)
3rd last year and perfect on the trends this (I’m forgiving her 79 days off, and a 3rd place in April 2021). However the form of her dead-heat with Not So Sleepy at Newcastle, means she won’t be winning this. She beat Betfair Hurdle winer Glory And Fortune on Boxing Day, so you could say that form is franked. However she couldn’t beat Honeysuckle last year, so why should she this year.
***** Honeysuckle (8/13 fav)
Now won 14/14 over Hurdles, she’s basically perfect. I took a half a tick off because she’s had more than 12 runs, but that’s ok as she is the Champion. The one to beat.
Conclusion
Honeysuckle should be winning. Appreciate It should be the main danger, but its hard to select at the price. I do like Teahupoo of the 5 year olds, but he needs to improve lots, and price is right. Epatante could easily get a place again this year. Purely on her price, she’s the each-way pick.
Selections
EPATANTE e/w @ 18/1 (Paddypower, Betfair, William HIll)
CLOSE BROTHERS MARES’ HURDLE
(REGISTERED AS THE DAVID NICHOLSON MARES’ HURDLE)
2 Miles, 3 Furlongs, 200 Yards - Grade 1 Hurdle
Overview
A race dominated by the Irish trainers, with 9 of the last 10 winners coming from over the water. Willie Mullins (with Quevega) dominated the early years, but now he hasn’t won since 2016. The premise should be to stick to the quality Irish horses until further notice.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.1
stars
2021 *** Black Tears (11/1)
2020 **** Honeysuckle (9/4)
2019 ***** Roksana (10/1)
2018 *** Benie Des Dieux (9/2)
2017 **** Apple’s Jade (7/2)
2016 ***** Vroum Vroum Mag (4/6 fav)
2015 ***** Glens Melody (6/1)
2014 ***** Quevega (8/11 fav)
2013 ***** Quevega (8/11 fav)
2012 ***** Quevega (4/7 fav)
10-year Trends
10/10 Aged between 5 and 7 years old or were a previous winner. [Quevega won as a 8,9 & 10 year old]
10/10 Rated within 14lbs of RP Top Rated.
10/10 Won over 2m 4f or more.
10/10 Had won a race worth at least £22k.
9/10 Raced between 4 and 9 times over Hurdles or were a previous winner.. [Black Tears had 16 runs.]
9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 156. [OR 147+] [Roksanna 153, OR142]
8/10 Had won a Grade 1 or 2 Hurdle. [Exceptions won a Grade 3 and a Listed Hurdle]
8/10 Won last time out [Exceptions were 2nd in a Grade 1 and 3rd in an Open Liste Hurdle]
8/10 Had run over 2m 6f or more in their career (incl Point-to-Points)
8/10 Had raced in open company, 7 in Grade 1 Hurdles, rather than sticking to Mares’ races.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-2-14
6yo 1-5-37
7yo 5-5-46
8yo 1-5-35
9yo 1-3-12
10yo 1-0-2
11yo 0-0-1
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -3.31
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 6-8-24
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 1-1-4, also Denise Foster (1-0-1)
Dan Skelton 1-1-6
Alan King 0-2-6
.
Contenders
***** Burning Victory (6/1)
Elevated herself up to perfect status, beating Queens Brook and Dysart Dynamo last time. ‘Lucky’ Triumph Hurdle winner of 2020, she’s been running in open company over 3 miles this season, so 2m 4f looks perfect against the girls. Worth considering.
**** Echoes In Rain (10/1)
Thought to be a Champion Hurdle contender after an impressive Novice campaign, however regularly beaten by Honeysuckle and Sharjah this season, so this is a viable alternative if she stays.
*** Heaven Help Us (12/1)
Winner of the Coral Cup in impressive style last year. Out of form this year. Now 8 and too many runs to take a risk on here.
*** Indefatigable (33/1)
Another former Festival winner (Martin Pipe 2020). Started the season in good form, but found wanting since. She’s now 8 as well.
*** Marie’s Rock (11/1)
Been running well this season, but not achieved enough to win this. Could hit the frame
** Martello Sky (14/1)
Beaten a few of these this season, but yet to win at Grade 1 or 2 level. So not rated to the levels of some of these. Another who could hit the frame.
*** Mrs Milner (10/1)
Won the Pertemps Final comfortably last year. Shouldn’t be winning really as she’s not rated high enough.
* Nada To Prada (100/1)
Fails plenty. Not good enough.
** Queens Brook (5/1)
Wasn’t going to beat Burning Victory last time and that’s her best run by far. Hard to recommend, especially at this price.
**** Stormy Ireland (11/2)
8 year old with plenty of experience and failed to win this twice now. Liely to find one or two better this year.
**** Telmesomethinggirl (3/1 fav)
Won the Mares’ Novice Hurdle last year. Yet to win this season, but hadn’t won coming into last years either. As she didn’t win last time and now has 12 starts under her belt, she has a few holes in her profile to overcome.
** Western Victory (66/1)
9 year old and plenty exposed now. Unlikely to feature here.
Conclusion
A lot of these are decent against other Mares, but winners of this usually have good experience against the boys and over further. There are plenty who are just too old now or with too many races under their belts. Burning Victory is perfect on the trend and is the selection.
Selection
BURNING VICTORY @ 10/1 (Bet365, PaddyPower, Betfair)
BOODLES JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE
(REGISTERED AS THE FRED WINTER)
2 Miles 87 Yards - Grade 3 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Overview
A competitive handicap for 4 year olds who aren’t quite considered good enough for the Triumph Hurdle on Friday. Plenty of big priced winners over the years (Jeff Kidder anyone?). This year’s market revolves around a French Import for Willie Mullins, who hasn’t raced for him yet.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.7 stars
2021 ** Jeff Kidder (80/1)
2020 ***** Aramax (15/2)
2019 *** Band Of Outlaws (7/2 fav)
2018 **** Veneer Of Charm (33/1)
2017 **** Flying Tiger (33/1)
2016 ** Diego Du Charmil (13/2)
2015 ***** Qualando (25/1)
2014 *** Hawk High (33/1)
2013 **** Flaxen Flare (25/1)
2012 ***** Une Artiste (40/1)
10-Year Trends
10/10 We not GB-Bred horses. 6 Irish, 3 French, 1 German.
10/10 Had finshed in the top 2 on one of their last 2 starts. 7 won.
10/10 Had an OR of 125-139.
9/10 Had an A.RPR of 133+. [Exception: Hawk High 130]
9/10 Had between 3 and 5 hurdle starts. [Flying Tiger had 6]
9/10 Had won a race. [Exception: Diego De Charmil was 2nd in France (worth 18k)
8/10 Had run within the last 53 days (7 within 32). [Exceptions off for 80 & 133]
8/10 Had a flat rating of at least 83 (if rated). [Exceptions 67, 70 & 79]
7/10 Were by a Sire with Group 1 Form [Exceptions: all G3 horses]
Additionally
14 of the 17 winners had run within 37 days.
11 of the 17 winners had just the 3 runs over hurdles.
4 of the 17 winners were fillies, and 3 places from just 24 runners.
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -7.50
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 3-4-19
Paul Nicholls 2-7-21
Nicky Henderson 1-2-11
Nick Williams 1-1-6
David Pipe 0-2-5
Dan Skelton 0-2-9
Willie Mullins (Ire) 0-2-13
Contenders
***** Petit Tonnerre (28/1)
Seems quite high for what he’s done. 2 wins in France, then a low level 3 runner handicap on UK hurdles bow.
*** The Tide Turns (7/1)
British-Bred, it’s a negative here, for now. Gordon Elliott trained is a positive at least.. Only beaten 8 lengths by Vauban (Triumph favourite). But well thrashed by Teahupoo, albeit in open company, last time. Ground was heavy that day, so better ground would be appreciated. Not a price I’m interested in this.
***** Brazil (11/1)
Low level start, beaten by The Tide Turns in January. Won last time out.
**** Doctor Churchill (80/1)
Lowly rated on the flat. Ticks too many boxes for no reason. Luckily his win was on heavy, so we can ignore
*** Ebasari (14/1)
Won well on debut but beaten by Brazil last time. Davy Russell rides for Gordon Elliott (Davy’s not won this though). Not rated high enough on the flat and misses a few others little bits and bobs.
*** Britzka (25/1)
3rd behind Fil Dor at Christmas, then well beaten last time by White Pepper. Had a wind op since. Not for me.
***** Bell Ex One (33/1)
Moved to Paul Nicholls since last run, ticks lots of boxes, but won his last 2 and not escaped the handicapper (probably)
*** Gaelic Warrior (5/2 fav)
The talking horse out of France. Yet to be seen racing for Willie Mullins, but well thought of, and reckoned to be a handicap snip. Not for me at the price.
** White Pepper (66/1)
Been a little busy and misses a few lesser trends. On balance, others are preferred.
***** HMS Seahorse (12/1)
Been running in some hot Maidens won by The Tide Turns and Pied Piper (Triumph). All boxes ticked. One for the shortlist.
**** Prairie Dancer (20/1)
No problems with him realy, been running ok, but is still a maiden after 4 races, so will ignore him on that.
**** Feigh (66/1)
Sire is not of the standard to win this, passed over.
***** Iberique Du Seuil (50/1)
Weighted to beat White Pepper this time. Gordon Elliott trained, but low in the pecking order.
***** Saint Segal (18/1)
Saint Des Saint is his sire, the only negative. Beaten 8 lengths by Porticello (Triumph) on soft, his 2 wins are on better ground.
***** Champion Green (12/1)
Won well last time on the best ground he’s encountered. No graded form in profile.
*** Sea Sessions (40/1)
British-bred, wasn’t too good on the flat and easy to pass over here.
*** Milldam (80/1)
French Import with 3 3rd places to his name. Not seen since October.
** Doctor Brown Bear (25/1)
Moved to Martin Brassil Quietly fancied and was a lot bigger price than now.
**** Too Friendly (28/1)
British-bred. Beaten in the Adonis, and that winner shouldn’t be winning the Triumph.
** Forever William (40/1)
British-bred. Well beaten by Pied Piper in January, form not franked. Plenty to find fault with.
***** Swinging London (66/1)
Bang on my trends, but a huge price. I do like the fact he’s won against older horses and he’s come over from France.
**** Skycutter (100/1)
Pummelled by Porticello twice, other options look better.
Conclusion
I’m not really happy with the trends I’m using here. All but one horse passed 4 strong-ish trends. The Irish have won the last 4 renewals, so maybe it’ll pay to stay there. Jeff Kidder (last) ran within 10 lengths of the winner, Zanahiyr at Christmas in the Knight Frank Hurdle in 2020. This year’s renewal won by Fil Dor, but only had Lunar Power and Britzka within 10 lengths. 2 against the field for small stakes only With the ground good-soft, Saint Segal will have prime conditions. HMS Seahorse for Paul Nolan, is another with 3 runs, coming off a win. Small stakes.
Selection
SAINT SEGAL e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365 6 places, William Hill, 5pl), Coral, Betfred)
HMS
SEAHORSE e/w @ 11/1
(Bet365, 6 places)
UKRAINE APPEAL NATIONAL HUNT CHALLENGE CUP
AMATEUR JOCKEYS’ NOVICES’ CHASE
3 Miles, 5 Furlongs, 201 Yards - Grade 2 Novice Chase
Overview
The quality of the race gets better and better. Last years winner in now 2nd favourite for the Gold Cup. It used to be a race for plodders, but its now a Grade 2 race and with a reduced distance of 3m 6f for safety reasons. There are still each way winners to be had, but equally a lot of the winners can be found in the first half dozen in the betting. Gordon Elliott would have made it 4 winners for the last 7 renewals if he hadn’t had his abberation before the festival. Ian Ferguson took over with Galvin for the win, but Elliott’s record is really 4 from 10 runners. Update: 6 RUNNERS!!!!!
Last 10 Winners- average 4.5 stars
2021 ***** Galvin (7/2)
2020 **** Ravenhill (12/1)
2019 **** Le Breuil (14/1)
2018 ***** Rathvinden (9/2)
2017 ***** Tiger Roll (16/1)
2016 ***** Minella Rocco (8/1)
2015 **** Cause Of Causes (8/1)
2014 *** Midnight Prayer (8/1)
2013 ***** Back In Focus (9/4 fav)
2012 ***** Teaforthree (5/1 fav)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Had raced over fences at least 3 times.
10/10 Had finished in the top 5 last time.
10/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 154+. [The last 9. 7 of those were 159+] [OR 139+]
10/10 Had finished in the top 2 in a Chase over at least 2 miles 71/2 furlongs. [Le Breuil was 3rd]
9/10 Had achieved a hurdles rating of 134 or more in their career. [Midnight Prayer 121 in 2014]
9/10 Were rated within 9lbs of the RPR Top Rated horse. [Midnight Prayer 12lbs]
9/10 Were aged between 7 and 10 years old. [Exception: 6 year old Minella Rocco]
8/10 Had raced in a Graded Chase. [Exceptions: Won Class 3 and 16k Irish Chases]
8/10 Had won over at least 3 miles in any sphere. [Exceptions were placed only]
8/10 Had finished in the top 2 in one of their last 2 starts. [Exceptions DNF & 7th/5th]
7/10 Had been off the track for between 18 and 75 days. [Exceptions 107, 152 & 134 days].
Waiting on the sidelines at this extreme trip is a Sire stat:
9/10 Were by a Sire who's stamina index was 11.3 furlongs or more. (Or Dam’s Sire if no rating.) [Exception: Le Breuil - / 10.2, and only 4 finished that year.]
Additionally
The last 21 winners had at least 3 starts over fences.
21 of the last 22 winners has run between 4 and 8 times that season.
22 of the last 24 winners had finished in the top 4 in their last 2 starts.
21 of the last 23 winners had finished in the top 2 in a 3 mile Chase.
12 of the last 19 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.
Since 1989, only two 6 year olds had won the race (2009 and 2016)
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 0-0-1
6yo 1-3-17
7yo 4-11-76
8yo 2-4-44
9yo 1-1-16
10yo 2-1-9
12yo 0-0-2
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -0.75
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 3-0-8 (& Denise Foster (Ire) 0-1-1)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 2-3-15
Alan King 1-1-5
Colin Tizzard 0-3-4
Paul Nicholls 0-2-6
Contenders
*** Beathebullet (100/1)
Only horse outlassed in the field. Ignore.
**** Braeside (12/1)
Fell short in his hurdles career and needs to find more here.
**** Ontheropes - NON RUNNER
**** Pats Fancy (8/1)
Yet to run in a graded chase or win over 3 miles or more. Just missed the hurdle stat (RPR 133). Another who needs more.
***** Run Wild Fred (15/8 fav)
Plenty of experience for this, but with just 6 runners, that may not be as important as usual. 2nd in last years Irish National, so not only experience, but open company experience. Jamie Codd is on board is a huge plus.
***** Stattler (5/2)
Beaten into 3rd in last year’s Albert Bartlett. Beat Vanillier las t time and should go close. Just 2 runs, but field is only small this year. Patrick Mullins rides here.
**** Vanillier (4/1)
Albert Bartlett winner, not shone over fences so far and well beaten by Stattler last time and Run Wild Fred the time before. Derek O’Connor riding is a plus.
Conclusion
Wow, 7 runners. Can we start that again… Wow, 6 runners. Probably a watching race, but we’ll see. If Stattler went to 3/1 he would be a bet.
Selection
NO BET (Stattler if 3/1, currently 11/4, with Boylesports)
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