Saturday 19 July 2008

titles are for wimps....

Ah, my favourite betting day, where quality shines through in the big races.... and i don't win.

Well, I've missed the Channel 4's Boring Line thanks to a combination of oversleeping - GOOD and Sky not working - BAD . The show where pompous fools pat each other on the back whist never tipping anything outside the top 4 in the betting..... grrrrrr. There are a couple of exceptions, in the excellent John Francome and Tanya who likes a nice e/w pick and isn't afraid to say it. More ranting over the weeks I'm sure.... Right onto the betting..

Newmarket
1.30 Liberation Spirit (7/4) looks a pretty good favourite here but I don't like that so lets delve a little deeper. Andaman Sunset (5/1) beat Orchestration (12/1) as a 2yo, however hasn't gone on to better things this season. Orchestration hasn't run since and his delayed absence is interesting. His trainer is sending him down to the home of racing and he must think he has a chance. Definitely one for your placepot, whether he's solid enough to consider backing is a tricky one. I'd probably want bigger than 12/1 currently on offer from http://www.skybet.com/

2.00 Lake Windemere is another solid favourite in Division II of this race. Nothing else springs to mind.

2.35 Dar Re Mi is a quality horse, and http://www.ladbrokes.com/ 's 11/4 will look a huge price if he wins (the 3yo's get 12-15lbs over the older horses). Ronaldsay (8/1) is in form and is a danger. Folk Opera to make the frame. Can't have Arthur's Girl or Icon Project and i rate Pentatonic (12/1) to beat those.

3.05 Kal Barg (11/2) looks an outstanding price here stepping up to a mile.

3.35 If Cape (13/2) gets the luck, he'll win, if he doesn't he won't. FACT with added TRUE :D

4.10 2yo races... whoopie doo... great for the placepot... not. I don't do 'breeding bollox', if I'm at the races i'll do the paddock, but not from my armchair. I do like my trends though and only 1 double-figure drawn winner in the last 10. Worth noting... The favourites (with a run) all have decent draws.

4.45 Fregate Island (9/2jf) looks a tempting price. However has too much seconditis to be certain

5.15 Not in the placepot, a really competative handicap, time for a beer.

Leg1 Liberation Spirit, Orchestration
Leg2 Lake Windermere + 1
Leg3 Dar Re Mi, Ronaldsay
Leg4 Kal Barg
Leg5 Cape
Leg6 3 of the low drawn horses.

Not a great placepot, really need the favourites out of the frame in the first 2. Could put in another in the 3rd leg for protection. 24 lines is cheap enough.

Newbury
1.50 Nasty little race for placepot purposes, but if we can get Oratory out of the frame it will be an excellent start. Awinnersgame and upto any 4 of the other chances (except Kaiser Willie) in the placepot.

2.20 Corrybrough looks an excellent 3yo, but we must get him beat if the placepot is to pay. Stick in 2 others as insurance, Balthazaar's Gift is one, Strike The Deal isn't.

2.50 Not the most difficult Scoop6 race ever (that's next). Maghya (7/2f) has finished in the top 2 in every race she's run. The 2 2nd favs, Fragrancy and Lindelaan should be around. A bigger priced possible winner is Farley Star (12/1) now that she has some Class 2 experience.

3.25 Wow, good luck hehe...... no, ok.... Penny's Gift (3/1) is far too short... Stick in 4 others at the top of the market and hope for the best.... byeeee....

3.55 Can't put you off any. This is bloody tough and I wish you good luck in your quest, sir.

4.30 Is Bankable (13/8f), Bankable??. Beaten by the draw last time as they forgot they actually could have used the other side of the track. This time he should hose up. If he doesn't then the placepot is gonna be huge. Stick him in with 2 others. Halicarnasus (16/1) (http://www.bluesq.com/ , http://www.sportingbet.com/ ) backed last time has a chance and Wise Dennis (20/1) is class. Making his return this season after a sucessful stint in Dubai. Last year he won on his seasonal bow.

5.00 Looks a nice opportunity for Calculating (13/2) http://www.williamhill.com/ . All wins on AW but this looks a better race for him. The underrated Davie Probert on baord takes off 7lbs.

Leg1 Awinnersgame + 4
Leg2 Corrybrough, Balthazaar's Gift
Leg3 Maghya
Leg4 4 picks
Leg5 4 picks
Leg6 Bankable

Had to cut down and hope the bankers do the bizz. 160 lines, ideally another in legs 2,3 & 5. Possibly cut one off leg 1 to compensate.

knackered..... more later possibly... but the crickets on, the golf's on and i'm hungry...

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