Friday 16th March - Day 4
1.30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (4yo) – 2m1f – Grade 1
The race for future Champion Hurdlers. In recent years the winner hasn't even been on the racecourse until the new year. Since the introduction of the Freed Winter 7 years ago, the winner has come from the first day of the betting, possibly meaning the days of big-priced winners have gone
10 Year Trends
10/10 Last run was between 20 and 55 days ago. I'm not sure I want do get rid of Asaid because he ran 19 days ago.
Removes: Dysios
9/10 Had run in 2-6 Hurdles. Zarkandar had raced only once last year so we don't want to be getting rid of too hastily
Removes: His Excellency
9/10 Have won last time out. Celestial Halo was 2nd, but had won their penultimate race.
Removes: Arctic Reach, Countrywide Flame, Hollow Tree, Mattoral, Ut De Sivola, Wingtips
9/10 Had won 50% or more of their Hurdles. All winners since the Fred Winter came into existence.
Removes: Dodging Bullets, Hisabaat
9/10 From a Group 1 sire. Soldatino (2010) was not, but the percentage play is to find one.
Removes: Baby Mix (fav), Urbain De Sivola
8/10 Had achieved a RP Rating of 127 or more. The last 7 achieved this so its getting stronger.
Removes: West Brit
7/10 A SP of not more than 9/1. The last 7 since the Fred Winter started in 2005.
Removes: Asaid
7/10 Had made his hurdling début after December 1st. The trend is for the winners to début later in the season, Zarkandar, just 3 weeks before this race. 7 of the last 8 debuted later rather than earlier. This will only be used to whittle down 6 horses into something more manageable.
Removes: Balder Succes,
Selections:
If we assume that Darroun (12/1) is too big in the betting, then we are left with 4.
all shorties.
The 2 that didn't win last time out are Sadler's Risk and Shadow Catcher and I'm leaving them off.
GRUMETI (7/1) seems to be a bit weak in the market this morning. Not sure why, he's pretty perfect but,
PEARL SWAN (7/1), who was disqualified last time we saw him, beat Grumeti earlier in the season.
2.05 - Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle – 2m1f - Grade 3
Another great quality handicap to get my teeth into. I never pick the winner though, be warned. Master Of The Arts is a non-runner.
10 Year Trends
10/10 Had achieved a RP Hurdle rating of 129 or more on a Left-Handed course.
Removes: Ted Spread, Ifyouletmefinish, Ingleby Spirit and Court In Session.
9/10 Officially Rated between 128-144. Sporazene was 151 in 2004. Need to get these top rated horses beaten, they aren't set up to win.
Removes: Starluck, Clerk's Choice and Moon Dice.
9/10 Ran between 4 and 16 times over Hurdles. All at least 4 times. The last 9 fitted this stat.
Removes: Magnifique Etoile and Via Galilei.
9/10 Weight of less than 11-02. The last 8 were less than 11-00. However the bottom weight is 10-08, so I don't really want to be relying on it and will find something else to add for a removal.
9/10 Get rid of horses of bigger than 20/1. Silver Jaro (50/1) shocked punters 4 years ago. I will couple it with the weight-factor. Of course these sort of horses can place so I'm not ruling out a good run, it's just I want winners.
Removes: Ubi Ace, Desert Cry, The Bull Hayes, Dee Ee Williams, Alderwood, Lifestyle, Alarazi
8/10 Days off ranges from 13-68 days but the percentage is less than 37 days, but I want to take on horses out of the full zone to be sure.
Removes: Dirar and Snap Tie
7/10 5 and 6 year olds have won 7 of these. Certainly get rid of 10yo's or more.
Removes: Hell's Bay
Selections:
We have 8 runners to consider. Sailor's Warn (20/1) (11-05) is a little high in the weights. The same can be said of RAYA STAR (11/1), however he's a lot more consistent and won the Ladbroke Hurdle in December, and was 3rd in the Betfair Hurdle in February, the form being franked by Get Me Out Of Here and a running-on Zarkandar in the Champion Hurdle.
Local Hero (20/1) is German-Bred (0 wins from 64 in handicaps) and is no Raya Star.. out. Plan A (25/1) is a nice weight and was fav for the Fred Winter last year, so I won't rule him out of the places but has a few niggles trends-wise. If Paul Nicholls runners were in form (2 wins at fest and too many below-par runs) then Edgardo Sol (33/1) could be considered, but is now ignored.
The final 3 are all bets in my opinion.
Olofi (11/1), consistent this season and well fancied. But runs well without winning. Certainly one for the placepot .
REDARA (20/1) Been backed since yesterday and could be steamed a lot shorter later on. Has the perfect profile.
Citizenship (8/1) looks in great form and could be ahead of the handicapper. He's a worthy favourite, and a fair price, but Is too short for my each-way tendencies.
2 Bets but 4 fancies.
- - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Spa Novices Hurdle – 3m – Grade 1
Berties Dream made a certain West London pub dust off their champagne selection a couple of years ago, hopefully we can find another winner this year. Strong trends but only 7 renewals so far.
7-Year Trends
7/7 Achieved an RP Rating of 139 or more. No need to worry about a few in this field.
Removes: American Spin, Benheir, Big Occasion, Dawn Commander, Fill The Power, Fox Appeal, Grand Vision, Hard To Swallow, Meister Eckhart, Sivola De Sivola, The Bosses Cousin, The Druids Nephew and Tour Des Champs
7/7 Had run in at least 3 Hurdles.
Removes: Rocky Creek with just 2 runs, however he does hit every other trend.
7/7 Finished Top 4 in a Graded Hurdle in his last run.
Removes: Lovcen and Sea Of Thunder
Selections:
We are left with 4 runners, who pass all the remaining trends.
Boston Bob (6/4) is a very short favourite, he isn't a bet but a likely winner.
2nd favourite Mount Benbulen (13/2) is short too and I expect him to run a big race.
BRINDISI BREEZE (11/1, bet365) is a good e/w bet, he's also 11/2 “without fav”
My e/w bet is IPSOS DU BERLAIS (20/1) (16/1 w/o fav) who was behind Boston Bob and Mount Benbulen at Navan but I remember Berties Dream being the same type.
- - Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase – 3m21/2f – Grade 1
It's going to be immense. Long Run should outstay Kauto Star up the hill IF he jumps well enough. There plenty of good but not great horses in this so lets try and find a bet.
10 Year Trends
10/10 Had between 2 and 5 seasonal runs
Removes: Burton Port and Diamond Harry
10/10 Has a Grade 1 Chase win
Removes: Carruthers, China Rock, Knockara Beau, Midnight Chase, The Giant Bolster, The Midnight Club, Time For Rupert and Weird Al
9/10 Rated within 8lbs of the Top Rated horse (Long Run 187)
Removes: Quel Esprit, Synchronised and What A Friend
Selections:
The 2 favourites remain. LONG RUN (2/1fav) to beat Kauto Star (7/2).
Weird Al and Synchronised would be e/w bets if 12/1 or bigger.
Bets:
DIAMOND HARRY (w/o big 2) 18/1e/w with PaddyPower.
WHAT A FRIEND (w/o Long Run) 20/1ew with Coral
4.00 - Christies' Foxhunters' Chase – 3m21/2f – Class 2
The Gold Cup for amateur jockeys. No Baby Run this year. NR is Theatre Diva
10-Year Trends
10/10 Won at 3 miles or more.
Removes: Chapoturgeon (fav), Picaroon
9/10 Had an RPR of 130 or more.
Removes: Blackstaff, Bradley, Count Salzar, Enter Paradise, Not Before Eight, Rowdy Rampage, My Flora
9/10 Aged 6-10. Earthmover was 13 in 2004. 9/10 yo's have won 6.
Removes: Cloudy Lane, Eleazer, Keenan's Future
7/10 Rated within 11lbs of the RP Top Rated (Chapoturgeon).
6/10 Won last time out. 2 more were top 3. Serious consideration to remove horses that fail the last 2.
Removes: Herons Well, Surenaga
Selections:
10 left. Dumping Roulez Cool (not run for 2 years). Blackstaff (23lbs from Top Rated). With Paul Nicholls out of sorts, I have to leave Just Amazing out. Salsify (6/1cfav) is a little short to bet with but is perfect trends-wise. Turko was well thrashed by Chapoturgeon, and at 10 is going backwards. Boxer Georg has little for over 3 miles and is ignored too. Oscar Delta is out of form and is passed over. On The Fringe (9/1) is now a little short for e/w backers but is a contender. Now we have 2 e/w bets. MERCHANT ROYAL (14/1) and BARBERS SHOP (former Gold Cup hopeful) (14/1). Both are perfect and are a nice prices.
4.40 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle – 2m41/2f – Class 2
Just 3 runnings of this but from limited trends, we can give a couple of tentative small e/ws.
3-Year Trends
3/3 All 3 were 5 or 6 years olds. I can definitely remove any older than 7.
Removes: I'msingingtheblues, Like minded, Wolf Moon, Gormanstown Cuckoo, Art Professor
3/3 Officially Rated between 133-137. Tight I know, but it's a start.
Removes: Molotof (145)
3/3 Pre-race RP Rating of 137 or more
Removes: Toner D'Oudairies, Arab League, Oscar Nominee, Rigidity
3/3 Raced between 3-9 times over Hurdles. Get rid of exposed types.
Removes: Attaglance, Pateese, Street Entertainer, Ski Sunday, Bocciani (also German-bred)
Selections:
9 left. A couple of e/w bets hopefully. Tornado Bob is too high for handicaps at Cheltenham, (even with 3lbs claimed) Empire Levant is a Nicholls horse so is left alone. Bourne (11/2) won easily last time and can still be ahead of the handicapper, but is too short for me even if he is a good thing.
Headgear is a no-no in festival handicaps (except Pipe), so out go Knight Pass
Nigel Twiston-Davies has terrible handicap record (3 wins in 75), so bye-bye to Changing Times
I'm going to look towards Nicky Henderson as he's got the golden arm this week. He runs OPEN HEARTED (14/1) who fits the bill (also has Molotof and Oscar Nominee). David Pipe runs DAN BREEN (20/1) who is in form (good 2nd last time). The other two are Grandads House (16/1) and Make A Track (14/1) who are good for the placepot.
Low stakes please!!!! :-D
5.15 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap) – 2m1/2f – Grade 3
The get out stakes. Had the 1st, 3rd and 4th in the trifecta last year. Hmmmmm.
French Opera keeps a lot of Henderson horses low in the handicap, so watch out for them. French Opera won't be winning though even with 5lbs off his back, every other
horse will be carrying less than 11 stone.
10-Year Trends
10/10 A win at 2m1f or more is essential
Removes: Toubab
10/10 Carrying less than 11 stone.
Removes: French Opera
9/10 Ran in less than 13 Chases. Always a decent cut-off for handicaps here. Certainly not more than 20, Oiseau De Nuit last year (who stays in)
Removes: Cornas (21), Renard (22) and De Boitron (27)
7/10 No more than 4 runs since August
7/10 A Course winner
7/10 Has festival form
Removing horses that fail all 3 of these.
Removes: King Edmund, Tara Royal, Lucky William and Ultimate
Other Considerations:
Non UK, French or Irish-Bred horses don't win Cheltenham handicaps,
Removes: Bellvano (Ger) and Idarah (USA)
Blinkers:
Kumbeshwar ran superbly at the festival last year but..... blinkers for Alan King.. out!!
Free World and Norther Bay are running from out of the handicap so I will let them go (although 3 winners did defy it)
Astracad is a Twiston-Davies horse (bad handicap record), so is ignored.
Selections:
Kid Cassidy (6/1fav)is too short and has no Cheltenham experience. Last years winner Oiseau De Nuit (14/1) with 28 runs, can run well but is no 40/1 shot this year. I have to oppose.
TANKS FOR THAT (14/1) is Henderson/Geraghty so could be shorter come the start as people look for a winner. He should be on the shortlist. ANQUETTA (28/1) is the Henderson 2nd string but still hits all the trends you need, add to placepot. SLIEVEARDAGH (14/1) is ultra-consistent in Ireland and although has no course form has to be considered. ERADICATE (14/1) complete the hatrick of Henderson horses, but I've thought a lot about him all season and he's RP Top Rated if you like that sort of stuff. That's 4 for the lucky last..... I hope we don't need it.
No comments:
Post a Comment