Wednesday 14th March - Day2
A quick note about yesterday, 2 easy odds-on winners are not to be bragged about. 2 placed horses, but no winner and a break-even day for the blog. Today does not get any easier.
1.30 - Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Novices' Chase (for Amateur Riders) - 4m - Class 2
The longest race at the festival and certainly not the sort of race you want if you need a good start to the second day. I had Old Benny (9/1) and Poker De Sivola (14/1) in the last few years but the trends have taken a battering in between with Tricky Tickster and Chicago Grey popping up. I've had a look and to be honest I've halved the field. Not good enough. Hopefully the winner is in there and I will pick out an each-way selection
10 Year Trends
Before I cross some off... Most of the 10 year trends are imperfect thanks to one horse..... Butlers Cabin in 2007. He then went and won the Irish National in April of the same year. Nice stepping stone.
10/10 At least 3 Chase starts. I don't think this is a great place to begin with only 1 or 2 Chase runs under you belt, so it seems a logical place to start and rule out a few. Harry The Viking actually passes every stat apart from this, so you could allow him it off, but it's still going against 10 years of facts (even Butler's Cabin).
Removes: Ben's Folly, Bob N You, Daffern Seal, Harry The Viking (jfav) and Soll are too inexperienced.
9/10 9 winners had finished Top 2 in a 3mile Chase in their infancy. another logical event to scale down the field over 4 miles.
Removes: Allee Garde (jfav), Leggy Lad, State Benefit and Our Victoria
9/10 Won over 3 miles. Doesn't reduce the field by any but its there.
9/10 Top 5 last time. You could allow horses some wriggle room here but some sort of top 2 form in it's last 2 runs would be nice. Cottage Oak is one such beast and is expunged from our shotlist.
Removes: Cottage Oak
8/10 were 7 or 8 years old. They do provide most of the runners, but other ages are W2 Pl6 from 74 runners and it's the percentage call to look at this narrow band.
There are other trends to partially take into account but in the end I had 10 horses that can win this. I really don't want to take them apart on a bit of nothing and be left without the winner. The "perfect" horses are as follows: Blenheim Brook (20/1), Court Red Handed (66/1) and Universal Soldier (14/1).
I'm going to look for a little quality from my selections and pick horses that are within 12lbs of the RP Top Rated (Teaforthree).
Selections:
Teaforthree (7/1). I'm happy to recommend this for the placepot. I like the way he's gone about things, he does tick every box, but I don't really like 4 milers coming into the race off an 18 day break. He'd be in the book if was a nice each-way price that is for sure.
UNIVERSAL SOLDIER does tick all the boxes and I want to be onside at a nice each-way price. 14/1 is good for me and he will carry my money tomorrow.
Alfie Spinner (9/1) is pretty consistant and he's also one for the placepot for me.
Court Red Handed (66/1). Fits all the trends, but isn't really good enough on all known form.
Blenheim Brook (20/1) also fits all the trends but all his runs are in tiny field so don't be impressed ny all those twos.
Of the rest, if you are looking for Four Commanders (11/1, Irish steamer of the day) ,Iron Chancellor (33/1) and Our Island (33/1), I don't think they are good enough to win but have place chances.
My e/w bet is Universal Soldier, but only as a tentative pick. Good Luck!!!
2.05 - Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle - 2m5f - Grade 1
I'm not going to beat about the bush. I do only see 2 horses winning and i'm not going to give anything too extreme.
10 Year Trends
10/10 5 and 6 year old's hold sway, winning all 10.. Most runners are that age though. 5 4yo's have raced and none have placed yet. 3 7yo's have placed (from 29 runners) and older horses are 0-0-5.
Removes: Balderdash, Fiulin, Natural High, Sunny Ledgend and Secret Edge.
9/10 9 Winners have run to a RPR of 142 or more before the race. This hopefully is a great stat here as it kills all but 5 of the chances. Woop woop.. The only horse not to get to that rating was Fiveforthree (2008) who had only run in 1 Hurdle beforehand. The 1 hurdle stat (also for Galileo in 2002) gives us the excuse to chop off a lot of horses with some of the trends. So the following are either running over hurdles for the 2nd time or haven't hit the heady heights of 142 with the Racing Post.
Removes: Brass Tax, Close House, Cotton Mill, Double Ross, Felix Yonger, Make Your Mark, Nagpur, Nelson's Bridge and The Tracy Shuffle
5 are left.
9/10 Had won 50% of all hurdles. Massinis Maguire (a 20/1 shock winner in 2007 did not) and this will rule out Batonnier (8/1) and Sous Les Cieux (13/2). They have decent place chances, but are not for me.
3 against the Field. Beneficient (20/1) was a shock 50/1 winner, beating Sous Les Criux last time at Leopardstown and he won't get the soft lead he did then. That's what everyone says and it seems to be reflected in the price, but this looks weak and i think he deserves some respect. The 2 against the field are SIMONSIG (5/2fav) who looks very very solid indead and with Fingal Bay out, should seriously be considered. MONKSLAND is the 2nd favourite (11/2) and looks the part too trendswise. He hasn't beaten too much but you can only beat whats in front of you and has improved for every race.
2.40 - RSA Chase - 3m1/2f - Grade 1
This looks to revolve around the super novice Grands Crus but has to break a 10 year trend of having a run within the last 53 days. Newbury's abandonment forced him to miss his engagement, however he is the best horse here and should win. But I don't want to remove horses just because they were denied a run through bad weather. So horses will be failing 2 trends.
10 Year Trends
10/10 Did not come from the flat
10/10 Finished Top 2 last time out
Removes: Walkon
10/10 Had raced withing the last 53 days.
10/10 Ran in a Grade Chase
Removes:Join Together
10/10 Had run in 3-8 Chases
9/10 Were rated within 14lbs of the RP Top Rated horse
Removes: Call The Police, Canningron Brook and First Lieutenant
9/10 No more than 16 runs in whole career
Removes: Mr Moonshine
9/10 Were aged 7 or 8 year old. Chapoturgeon was 5. Avoid horses older than 8. (Call The Police)
Selection:
Bob's Worth (4/1) hits all the trends. He's not set the world alight this year but loves Cheltenham and hosed up in the Albert Bartlett last year. Too short for me
GRANDS CRUS (11/8fav) off for 79 days, has to crack that trend to win, but he should do and I'm on his side.
LAMBRO (25/1) hits many of the trends, he's not quite good enough according to the Racing Post but may run a big race. I can't recommend him as a bet though.
3.20 Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase - 2m - Grade 1
Doesn't look to be much depth to the Champion Chase this year and the top 3 in the market, especially Sizing Europe, looks to have it wrapped up between them.
10 year Trends
10/10 All have won over the extended 2m1f.
10/10 All had at leasy 8 Chases under their belt
Removes: Finians Rainbow
10/10 Have less than 4 seasonal runs.
Removes: Gauvain, Sizing Europe and Wishfull Thinking
9/10 Rated within 10lbs of the RP Top Rated
9/10 Aged 5-9. This goes against the 2 former champions, but I would not worry too much about that. Moscow Flyer came back and won at 11.
Removes: I'm So Lucky (fails the last 2 trends)
9/10 Had run a RPR of at least 166 pre-race.
Removes: Realt Dubh (also not within 10lbs of Sizing Europe
9/10 Had won a Grade 1 Chase. 4 of the field have Grade 2 wins under their belt but need to improve to win this one. They are Kauto Stone and (Gauvain, I'm So Lucky and Wishfull Thinking)
8/10 Had won a Graded Chase last time, this would knock out every horse bar, Sizing Europe,
Selections:
Sizing Europe doesn't fil all of the trends this year but is the best horse in the race, however he doesn't offer any value to me. I like BIG ZEB and he was travelling really well vs Sizing last time before losing by a false margin of 15 lenghs on heavy ground. This better ground will suit both but it will be a lot closer today. Finians Rainbow is a hype horse who won't get up the hill. I'm not confident that anything else is a banker each-way each-way. Wishfull Thinking can't do anything right and has ability on his day, but hasn't had one of those this season. Kauto Stone may win a race, but probably next season.
4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) - 2m5f - Grade 3
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A Competative 28 runners and with the bottom weight being 10-05, I wouldn't be ruling out too much at the top of the handicap, however the winner is usually plotted to win and horses on 11-03 or more aren't really plotted with. No 100% solid trends, so i will be looking for 2 fails before removing from my bets.
10 Year Trends:
9/10 Won at 2m2 to 2m6f
9/10 Won a Class 3 Hurdle or better.
Removes: Abergavenney
9/10 Racing weight is under 11-03 Sky's The Limit is one of only 3 Top-Weights to win a handicap in the last 10 years. (the other 2 in the Cross Country)
Removes: Get Me Out Of Here
9/10 Aged 5-7. Burntoakboy was 9 in 2007. Horses 8+ are 1-6-85 in this race.
Removes: Cockney Trucker, Shoreacres and Dare Me
9/10 Off the track for a month or more. Plots, plots and more plots...
Removes: Carlito Brigante, Third Intention, Final Approach, Megastar, Consigliere and Poole Master
9/10 OR of 128-144. Monkerhostin was 147 in 2004.
Removes: Featherbed Lane
9/10 Had won in the season. All of the last 9 had a seasonal win under their belts.
Removes: Stonemaster, Silverhand and Son Of Flicka
8/10 At least 5 hurdle runs, and not more than 9 please.
Removes: Balgarry
8/10 Top 6 in his last race if possible. 8 of last 9. Spirit River in 2010 was unplaced LTO,
Removes:Golan Way
Selections: 11 left. First of all the perfect profile comes from FIRST FANDANGO (33/1) who also has a claimer on board for Tim Vaughan and has 10 stone on his back. Of the others, former winner, Spirit River is interesting, but has been off the track for 110 days. He's 20/1. Tenor Nivernais (33/1) Saphir River (40/1)and Bally Legend (66/1) look a little exposed for this but still have place claims. If Veiled (28/1) was in better form from either of his runs this season then I could heartilly recommend, but doesn't and I'm against.
David Pipe handicap horses should always be respected at the festival. Star Of Angels (33/1) is 8 years old though and I do want to be agianst the older horses. ACT OF KALINISI (18/1) ticks a lot of boxed, hasn't won this year, but is in good form His trainer, Dr Richard Newland, has won this and I want to be onside.
Knight Pass looks a little inexperienced, having only 4 hurdle runs. He may run well but no horse this inexperienced has won this and is opposed. The final horse is CAPE DUTCH (18/1). His trainer John Ferguson has set the world alight in his first season as a jumps trainer and this ticks most of the boxes. Has 5 seasonal runs to his name, but they are all solid and the bare 10 stone he's going to be carrying gives him a great chance. Hopefully I've pointed you towards the winner... Good luck, you will need it.
4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle - 2m1/2f - Grade 3
Seven year of trends for this 4yo Handicap Hurdle, Pricewise has catapulted one of my fancies to the top of the market but more of that later.
7 Year Trends (removals will fail 2)
7/7 Didn't win in his first season on the flat. Hadn't won in first 2 starts ofer hurdles. A muddling stat that rules out half the field
7/7 Was from a Group 1 winning flat sire.
Removes: Kapga De Cerisy, Arnaud, Moujik Borget and Ulck Du Lin
7/7 Good enough to have a flat rating of 85 or more (if he qualified)
Removes: Sportsmaster, Kie, Kazlian, Dark And Dangerous, Une Artiste, Royal Bonsai, Chill
7/7 Officially Rated between 115-133 (ignored as the top rated is only 5lbs higher than this)
6/7 Not more than 5 Hurdle runs. Gaspara had 10 in 2007.
Removes: One Cool Shabra (12)
5/7 Had won last time out (other 2 ran in tough Graded Hurdle)
Removes: Soliwery, Ardlui, Blue Cannon
Selections:
VENDOR (5/1fav) is an obvious choice and for favourite backers has the right profile to win this. On the drift thanks to GORGEOUS SIXTY (8/1), he is now a nice price. Sixty is pricewise and had halved in price this morning. he was 8th in a Grade 1 last time and looks perfectly suited for this. My each-way pick is EDEYMI (16/1) who is a little high in the weights but is entitled to be there or there abouts. Others that I've rejected but can't be ruled out are. Argocat (20/1) wasn't good enough on the flat. Colebrook (80/1) wasn't either and looks a little exposed now. Bat Masterson (25/1) was 3rd in a Grade 2 race last time, but looks exposed and wasn't good enough on the flat. Lemon Drop Red (28/1) is another average flat runner but is US-bred and they have a poor handicap record at Cheltenham. High Samana (50/1) isnt good enough.
Jackies Solitaire (25/1) has too many doublts in a few boxes to be considered.
5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard NH Flat Race)
10 Year Trends
10/10 Won a Bumper with 13 or more runners.
Removes: Champagne Fever, Glenwood Present, Many Clouds, Piano Concerto, Pique Sous, The Romford Pele, Vilage Vic, Yes Way Hosay, Horatio Hornblower, Jezki, New Year's Eve and Virginia Ash
9/10 Only Cue Card was 4 years old. So each horse must be taken on merit nowadays.
9/10 Won last time.The last 8 have so its worth siding with.
Removes: Ifandbutwhynot.
8/10 Pre-race RP Rating of 118 or more.Cue Card and Cousin Vinny had only 1 race though.
8/10 Had won a Bumper worth £4,000 or more. The last 2 did not so this must be ignored.
7/10 Irish-bred.. Not the last 2 years, open your mind....
7/10 A month off is helpful but not necessary.
Selections:
7 are left from the 20. Circular Quay (40/1) has the same trend misses as Cue Card and can't be ruled out. But more is required (obviously) on a faster surface. Clonban Lad (20/1) is a strange one as he has only won a bumper with 11 runners, but has a point-to-point victory in a large field. Should be struck off but I don't want to take him out with a funny profile. Form is on heavy and soft so will need to prove he can take to faster ground. MOSCOW MANNON (15/2) has the perfect profile and I expect a good run for your money. Favourite New Year's Eve (6/1) has a terrible profile and he's lay material. Royal Guardsman (8/1) has a good profile but is too short for me compared to MM, and a 4th at Aintree to SIR JOHNSON (12/1) means my money is leaning towards him. COOL GEORGE (28/1) is a 4yo with just 1 run, very Cue Card-esque and is an each-way pick. Finally The New One (12/1) is 4, but hits all the other trends. He's a little short for a 4yo and although he's won both starts, the form doesn't look great and while he can run well, I won't include him
7 are left from the 20. Circular Quay (40/1) has the same trend misses as Cue Card and can't be ruled out. But more is required (obviously) on a faster surface. Clonban Lad (20/1) is a strange one as he has only won a bumper with 11 runners, but has a point-to-point victory in a large field. Should be struck off but I don't want to take him out with a funny profile. Form is on heavy and soft so will need to prove he can take to faster ground. MOSCOW MANNON (15/2) has the perfect profile and I expect a good run for your money. Favourite New Year's Eve (6/1) has a terrible profile and he's lay material. Royal Guardsman (8/1) has a good profile but is too short for me compared to MM, and a 4th at Aintree to SIR JOHNSON (12/1) means my money is leaning towards him. COOL GEORGE (28/1) is a 4yo with just 1 run, very Cue Card-esque and is an each-way pick. Finally The New One (12/1) is 4, but hits all the other trends. He's a little short for a 4yo and although he's won both starts, the form doesn't look great and while he can run well, I won't include him
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