Thursday 15th March - Day 3
1.30 - Jewson Novices' Chase (Golden Miller Chase) – 2m4f – Grade 2
It's inception last year hasn't turned out to be a particularly strong with Noble Prince and Wishfull Thinking not living up to star billing. If we take what Nopbel Prince has shown before thd race as a marker, then we hopefully can point to something
Noble Prince had:
Won a Chase over 2m4f
Ran to a RP Chase Rating of 156+
Was Placed in a Grade 1 Chase
Aged 7
Had run in 3 or more chases
Had won that season
Was Top 2 in all Chase finishes that season
On this evidence we have narrowed the field down to PEDDLERS CROSS (7/2fav). Not original but he is the best horse in the race and isn't a bad price. Yesterdays genius, Nicky Henderson, runs SOLIX (8/1) and I certainly won't be putting you off him. There is not a lot at a big each-way price that I fancy so if you go for those 2 against the field hopefully you may get a decent run for your money.
2.05 - Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) – 3m - Listed
Uber-competative staying handicap hurdle in which Buena Vista (10/1) goes for the hat-trick. Right lets look for something for the frame at least.
10-Year Trends
10/10 Officially Rated less than 142.
Removes: Restless Harry, Ashkazar, Our Father, Russian War, Pettifour, Rick, Sergent Guib's and Sir Kezbah
9/10 Aged 6-9, or are Beuna Vista..
Removes: Catch Me, Houblon Des Obeaux, Reindeer Dippin, and Kayf Aramis
9/10 Days since last run 20-48 or are Buena Vista
Removes: Sonovic, and Cantlow
9/10 Won a Class 3 hurdle. The last 6 have.
Removes: Pineau De Re, Barwell Bridge
9/10 Weight. 9 winners carried less than 11-02. The last 5 carried less than 10-10. And I will need to use this if I have too many contenders at the end.
9/10 Had winning form between 2m4 and 2m6. The last 7 winners had won over this shorter distance.
Removes: Scotsbrook Cloud
Selections:
7 left to pick from. Going to dump Bellflower Boy and the hattrick-seeking Buena Vista as they are a bit too exposed, not that exposed types can't or don't win. Prince Erik has a good profile, but is well out of sorts this season. Palace Jester and Thehillofuineach have form on softer ground and I have to dump them. CAPE TRIBULATION (20/1) is really interesting here and used to be well fancied in certain quarters. He has a good profile and is a very nice price. The other standout horse is ACROSS THE BAY (25/1), McCain and Maguire have had a good festival and this is a nice price.
2.40 - Ryanair Chase – 2m5f – Grade 1
I'd already decided who I was backing in this a while ago. But I will go through the trends anyway. Realt Dubh is a non-runner.
7 Year Trends
7/7 Best RP Rating of 158+
7/7 OR of 152 or more
Removes: Little Josh
7/7 Course winner. Could be broken this year as some big horses have failed this.
Removes: Kalahari King, Medermit, Riverside Theatre, Rubi Light, Somersby, Blazing Tempo
7/7 Aged less than 11 or is Albertas Run (won the last 2)
7/7 Top 2 in his either of his last 2 finishes.
Removes: Forpadydeplasters, Great Endeavour
Selections:
I'm ruling out Albertas Run (10/1). Hes been off for 145 days and is now 11. I backed him 2 years ago at a ridiculous 14/1, I hope he runs well but not with my money. Noble Prince (7/1) is drifting to a nice price, but the form of last years Jewson isn't working out well and lost to Big Zeb twice this season. 2 left. CAPTAIN CHRIS (12/1) looks huge if everything lands right for him and I will sugest him each-way. The horse I really fancy at 20/1 is POQUELIN. Loves the course and was 2nd 2 years ago. Also nice to see him not lumping a huge weight around in a handicap.
3.20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle – 3m – Grade 1
Big Buck's goes for his 4th World Hurlde and 16th straight win. We all want him to win, but its my job to find somwthing else. Lets be honest right now. He should win and I won't be oposing him in the outright market.
10 Year Trends
10/10 Top 2 last time out.
Removes: Carlito Brigante, Five Dream, Mourad, Thousand Stars
10/10 Less than 5 runs since August.
Removes: Mikael D'Haguenet
10/10 No Irish-Bred/trained winner.
Removes: Cross Kennon, Oscar Whisky, Voler La Vedette
10/10 Top 2 in every season's hurdle run
Removes: Dynaste (and So Young was 6th in May so is allowed a bit of lee-way)
10/10 No horse wearing headgear has won.
9/10 Have run to a RP Rating of 165 or more.
Removes: Smad Place and So Young
Selections: BIG BUCK'S (8/11fav). Best horse and lets hope he wins. I have to have a bet and it will be SMAD PLACE (16/1 without Big Buck's), who definitely has a chance of a top 4 place. If Voler La Vedette (9/1) was longer in the same market, then she would also be a bet.
4.00 - Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) – 2m5f – Grade 3
Lovely Handicap Chase with some strong trends. 2 non-runners, Rebel Du Marquis and Jack The Giant.
10 Year Trends
10/10 Won a Class 3 Chase
Removes: Schindlers Gold and The Cockney Mackem, (Mad Moose only won a Hurdle)
10/10 Won a race over 2m3f to 2m5f.
Removes: Crack Away Jack
10/10 Did not run in either Cheltenham's Paddy Power Gold Cup or Atlantic4 Gold Cup (in December) that season.
Removes: Matuhi, Finger on the Pulse, Divers, Holmwood Legend, Salut Flo and Fine Parchment
9/10 Finished in the top 5 last time out. All 8 of the last winners were in some sort of form.
Removes: Tartak, Gilbarry, Mad Moose, Charingworth, Glam Gerry and Radetsky March (his only fail).
9/10 Had taken part in at least 3 and no more than 15 Chases. Mister McGoldrick shocked the field with 33 Chases @ 66/1, 4 years ago.
Removes: Life Of A Luso (18 runs) (also out of the handicap). Kilcrea Asla (17) (also faild a couple of other)
8/10 A weight under 10-11 is desirable, but no winner carried more than 11-7.
Removes: Giorgio Quercus
Selections:
Of the 4 left, GANSEY (40/1) is 10, but that doesn't stop 3 winners in the last 10 years, but isn't ideal, however 40/1 is a huge price and just for that he's in my book. Hector's Choice (12/1) is a little high in the weights for me but I definitely won't put you off backing him. Notus De La Tour (14/1) is ultra-consistent and Connor O'Farrell takes off 3lbs. I expect him to be in the mix. My little star NICEONEFRANKIE (10/1) has got in and has been backed off the boards since yesterday morning (was 25/1). He's now not an e/w price but he is almost a perfect fit for this off a featherweight too.
4.40 - Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (for Amateur Riders) – 3m11/2f – Class 2
Tough handicap to end the day. I think I ruled out 1... lol... Non-runner is The Sawyer leaving 23.
10 Year Trends
10/10 Were rated within 8lbs of the RP top Rated (Summery Justice 155)
Removes: Your Busy, Brackloon High and Gurtacrue
10/10 Ran over 3 miles or more last time out.
Removes: Becauseicouldntsee, Benbane Head, The Hollinwell, Slippers Percy and Piraya
10/10 Were Officially Rated between 124- and 140
Removes: Up The Beat, Exmoor Ranfger and Sunnyhillboy
9/10 Aged 7-9 years old. The last 7. Certainly not older than 10.
Removes: Swing Bill and Faasel
8/10 Had won at 3 miles or more. The last 6 winners had.
Removes: Frontier Spirit, Fredo and Time For Spring
8/10 Top 3 run in one of his last 2 runs, unless trained by Martin (and possibly David) Pipe
Removes: Be There In Five.
Selections:
To be honest, as I said previously this is so open and think I definitely ruled out 5. I'm left with 6 after applying the trends.
Mostly Bob (18/1) has a course win this season and a 7lb claimer on board.
Midnight Appeal (14/1) has chances after being ultra-consistent this season. Blinkers worked well the first time, last time out. Blinkered horses don't have a good record in Cheltenham handicaps (unless David Pipe puts them on)
START ME UP (16/1). Don't discount. Comes over from Ireland and has a good record under Nina Carberry
Adams Island (20/1). 1st-time blinkers might fire him up, but they have a poor record at the festival.
SUMMERY JUSTICE (16/1) (RP top rated). A little inexperience, but stable in good form and is preferred.
SONA SASTA (22/1) is my hunch. Low weight but David Pipe has a really good strkie rate in handicaps at the festival and is the man to apply the blinkers at the right time.
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