William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle – Grade 1 - 2m 1/2f

Cinders And Ashes takes last year's crown.

Overview

A tough start to the festival, as the over-hyped favourites are torn apart by some sort of outsider and everyone groans “why didn't I pick that one out... the clues were there.” The trends are pretty strong, the bottom line is you want a good horse that had definitely run within the last couple of months, Its a fast opener and race-fitness is pretty key.

10-year Trends

10/10 Won at least 50% of their Hurdles.

10/10 Had won at the Distance.

10/10 Had an Official Rating (OR) of at least 136, or were un-rated.

9/10 Had run within the last 52 days. 8 within 41 days.

9/10 Aged either 5 or 6.

9/10 Had achieved a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of at least 137.

9/10 Had run between 2 and 5 times over Hurdles.

9/10 Had run less than 11 times in total in career.

8/10 Were rated within 12lbs of the RPR Top Rated.

8/10 Won last time out (LTO)

7/10 Had run in a Graded Hurdle.

Additionally

34 of the last 38 winners were aged 5 or 6.

Only one 4 year-old has won in the last 40 years. [Hors La Loi III in 1999]

17 of the last 18 winners had run within the last 68 days.

15 of the last 18 winners had run within the last 45 days.

14 of the last 16 winners had won last time.

14 of the last 15 places had been filled by ex-bumper runners

Contenders – winners averaged 4.4 stars.

Cause Of Causes 33/1 *** Good Ladbroke Hurdle handicap win at Ascot, but thrashed by My Tent Or Yours at Newbury last time. Looks over-raced for this and doesn't win enough.

Champagne Fever 8/1 ***** Won both Grade 1 bumpers last season. Beaten by Jezki and Rule The World (over 2m4f) over hurdles, but plenty to like about him. Was 16/1 at the end of the week.

Cheltenian 25/1 * Fails plenty of the trends, but ran superbly on hurdles début almost 2 years after winning the bumper. Interesting to see how he goes.

Dodging Bullets 9/1 ** Triumph Hurdle 4th last year, but fails plenty of trends. Hasn't raced since Boxing Day's 3^rd to Darlan, too risky at that price.

Fire King 500/1 * No chance.

Jezki 5/1 **** Bought for around £400k by JP McManus since his last run. Fails 1 major trend he's without a run this year, otherwise he'd be a real threat.

My Tent Or Yours 2/1f ***** Impressive winner of the Betfair Hurdle, but plenty short enough. Is perfect trends-wise and is the one to beat.

Ostentation 500/1 * No chance.

Pique Sous 16/1 *** Had a strange campaign and hasn't raced over the sticks since October. Could be anything, but I can let him win without my money.

Puffin Billy 16/1 ***** Reportedly injured after defeat last time. The trainer says he hasn't missed any work at home so he's a player at an each way price. Stamina should come into play on the forecast soft ground.

River Maigue 16/1 **** Behind Dodging Bullets in November here. Doesn't fail any trends but will probably find 2-3 too good.

Un Atout 7/1 ***** Done absolutely nothing wrong in Ireland, what he has beaten is another matter. Backable if he was double the price.

Conclusions

Looks a cracking renewal, We have four 5-star selections and two, just in below. MY TENT OR YOURS (2/1fav) looks the one to beat, but isn't a price I'm interested in. The money has come for Champagne Fever (16/1 → 8/1), so PUFFIN BILLY (25/1 → 14/1) is interesting at an each-way price if he's over his injury fully. He's got stamina about him, but on the soft ground he can make that pay. Look out for bookies to see if they are paying 4 places. (William Hill are paying 5 today, but with only 12 runners that must change.)