Ladbrokes Irish Grand National (Handicap Chase) – 3m 5f - Grade A

Lion Na Bearnai causes a shock last year. This year he may cause one in the English version.

Overview:

I almost picked the 33/1 winner last year, Lion Na Bearnai, but found others too strong to select him, but he did get a mention. The trends are strong and the going heavy, so we are going to want a thorough stayer to win this renewal.

10-Year Trends:

10/10 Carried 10-12 or less.

10/10 Officially Rated between 121 and 136.

10/10 Had run between 6 and 13 times over fences.

10/10 Had achieved a RPR of 134 or more over fences.

10/10 Had won a race going Right Handed.

9/10 Had won a Chase over at least 2m 5f.

9/10 Had raced in a Chase over 3 miles or more.

9/10 Had run within the last 51 days.

9/10 Were aged between 7 and 10 years old.

8/10 Had raced in a handicap worth £42,000 or more.

8/10 Had finished in the top 3 in one of his last 4 starts.

Contenders:

Junior 25/1 **** Carries too much weight, in fact he gives the field upwards of 13lbs.

You Must Know Me 20/1 ** Is rated too highly, but that doesn't matter with Junior in the field. But he only has 3 runs under his belt and hasn't won over 2m 5f yet. His time may come later in his career.

Magnanimity 12/1 *** Promising Novice who's lost his way in the last couple of years. Not proven this far and is overlooked.

Sweeney Tunes 12/1 *** Not sure I want an inexperienced horse who hasn't run as far as 3 miles before, certainly not one as short as this.

Competitive Edge 20/1 ** He's a 6yo, with no form over the longer distances and is passed over for this.

Cootamundra 25/1 *** Another without a win past 21 furlongs, hasn't won right-handed over fences, and there are better horses out there.

He'llberemembered 25/1 *** He hasn't run over 3m before, nor in a big handicap. May run a good race, but I think there are better options.

Home Farm 14/1 ** Bit too young and inexperienced and has yet to encounter anything as tough as this so far.

Jacksonlady 25/1 ** Inexperienced without any form at a distance. He's ignored even with Geraghty on board.

Muirhead 33/1 ***** He passes all the trends (a little too highly rated), but doesn't seem to be the horse over fences that he was over hurdles. I think he'll find it tough on the ground.

Whodoyouthink 40/1 ***** finished 7^th in this last year, fading on the home run. Almost perfect trendswise, but another that might find it tough on the ground.

Rich Revival 8/1f **** Great start to his chasing career, with 3 wins from 3. Will love the ground. His inexperience (and thus no big handicap experience) may count against him. He's no value at the price but is an interesting horse for next season.

Marasonnien 10/1 ** Ruby Walsh's ride, but there are a few holes in his profile. Consistent, but has never won a chase. I find it difficult to see him starting here.

Away We Go 33/1 ***** Hits all the trends, but I can't have him. Campaigned exclusively over hurdles this season and not great on the ground. He's won over 2m6f, but doesn't seem one for a longer trip.

Romanesco 12/1 ***** 15 Chase starts is irrelevant in terms of experience. I do worry that he had a hard race at Cheltenham (3^rd in Kim Muir) and although he's won on heavy, that was over a lot shorter.

Cross Appeal 33/1 **** Pulled-Up in this last season, not seen since the turn of the year. I don't like form of PP0 either. He has form on heavy and won the Paddy Power Cup last season so has a chance on old form.

Jadanli 33/1 **** His main negatives are that he's 11 and is a little exposed. He was 9^th at Cheltenham (JLT) and has less than 3 weeks to recover. Doesn't mind the ground and has a chance.

Questions Answered 25/1 **** No win past 2m5f and off the track a little longer than ideal. I'm not sure the ground is in his favour either.

Blazing Beacon 28/1 ** Too old, and not a 3m horse.

Panther Claw 14/1 ***** Has a penalty for his win 2 weeks ago, but hits all the trends. The ground is fine and looks the likeliest winner as long as his last run hasn't taken it out of him. Jadanli beat him in January so he should be in the mix too.

Start Me Up 33/1 *** Pulled-up last year, fails a couple of mini-trends (not won a RH Chase yet nor ran since 9^th Jan. The ground is a big worry and he's out of form because of it.

Carlingford Lough 14/1 * No idea why he's 14/1. He is, trends-wise, the worst horse in the race.

Imperial Shabra 66/1 *** Thoroughly exposed, he's done nothing recently and is easily opposed especially on ground he's never won on.

Liberty Counsel 40/1 **** Hasn't achieved anything so far and looks outclassed.

13^th in the Kim Muir, he'd prefer better ground.

Rapidolyte De Ladalka 25/1 ** Hasn't beaten much as is readily opposed.

Carloswayback 40/1 **** Achieved nothing of note out of Novice company. Would be a major surprise if he was good enough.

Goonyella 14/1 ** Former point-to-pointer, hasn't done anything wrong in his Hunter Chases. Could go well, but 14/1 is short enough for a 6yo.

Our Victoria 33/1 *** All her form is over shorter. Pulled-up here over the distance in December and hasn't been seen since.

Paddy Pub 25/1 **** 4^th last year, has a chance but the ground is a worry.

Place chance at best.

Quietly Fancied 25/1 **** Hasn't won past 2m5f, no win on heavy and blatantly not good enough.

Conclusions:

While a lot of horses a 4-stars about, we have to worry about horses that don't look stayers on the forecast heavy ground. Of the 5 'perfect' horses, 2 have ground worries and 2 have trip worries on the ground. The one that survives is PANTHER CLAW [16/1, Ladbrokes (4pl)] who looks a winner on paper. There are a couple of other horses to look out for. JADANLI [33/1, betvictor (5pl)] beat Panther Claw in January and is better off at the weights, however Panther Claw is up and coming, Jadanli is down and going. Rich Revival is the 8/1 favourite, so he isn't a bet, but is worth watching with next season in mind. Perhaps a cheeky exacta, trifecta is in the offing.