Skybet Supreme Novices' Hurdle – Grade 1 - 2m 1/2f

Champagne Fever defeats My Tent Or Yours in the 2013 renewal.

Overview

A fantastic start to the festival. Last years was a classic. This years isn't too shabby either.

The most important thing here is race fitness and a little bit of class. You definitely don't want something that's been put away over the winter like Dunguib and Cue Card were when turned over as well-backed jollies. Even if it's been heavy ground for months you still need to blow away the cobwebs. In my opinion the market just about has it spot on. Paddy Power's offer of “money-back if you're horse is 2^nd, 3^rd or 4^th“ seems like just the ticket.

10-year Trends

10/10 Had an Official Rating (OR) of at least 136, or were un-rated.

10/10 Had won at the Distance.

9/10 Won at least 50% of their Hurdles. The last 9 had.

9/10 Had run within the last 52 days. 8 within 41 days.

9/10 Had achieved a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of at least 137. Or an Adjusted RPR of 144 or more.

9/10 Had run between 2 and 5 times over Hurdles.

9/10 Had run less than 11 times in total in career.

9/10 Aged either 5 or 6.

8/10 Were rated within 13lbs of the RPR Top Rated.

8/10 Won last time out (LTO). One was 2^nd and another 3^rd.

7/10 Had run in a Graded Hurdle. 6 had won.

Additionally

35 of the last 39 winners were aged 5 or 6.

Only one 4 year-old has won in the last 40 years. [Hors La Loi III in 1999]

18 of the last 19 winners had run within the last 68 days.

16 of the last 19 winners had run within the last 45 days.

15 of the last 17 winners had won last time.

17 of the last 18 places had been filled by ex-bumper runners

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

4yo 0-1-6

5yo 4-13-88

6yo 5-5-70

7yo 1-1-20

8yo 0-0-2

9yo 0-0-1

Contenders - 10 year trends winner averaged 4.4 stars.

Fantasy King 100/1 *

Exposed, too old, outclassed, you name it he is it.

Garde La Victoire 33/1 ***

Off the track for 59 days is a little long in this, but basically he isn't good enough on what we've seen. Drying ground will help though.

Germany Calling 100/1 **

Yet to win and this looks a very tough ask, so can't see him anything but tailed off here.

Gilgamboa 12/1 *****

Shaped like he wants further, but that didn't stop him winning a Graded Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown in January. He's spot on with the trends. If the ground dries out, they may go a bit too fast for him.

Irving 5/2fav *****

He would have been a lay without a run 2 weeks ago, but a worthy favourite on all known form, (beat Splash of Ginge convincingly 2 runs ago). Perfect at the trends. All his hurdles racing has come right-handed so far, if you want to find a reason to take him on.

Josses Hill 16/1 *****

2^nd in the Tolworth Hurdle, where The Liquidator disappointed, he's been off the track since (59 days), so if you forgive him that and the fact that he didn't win that last race, then he is good on all the other trends.

Sgt Reckless 33/1 **

Not shown to be good enough so far and the fact that he's a 7yo means he's a no no.

Sky Khan 150/1 *

Basically not good enough, will relish better ground and has been kept fit on the all-weather.

Splash Of Ginge 25/1 ***

Shock (ish) winner of the Betfair Hurdle, and a decent 3^rd behind Irving before that. Has a squeak of a chance of a place based on that form, but a Supreme winner is usually better than him, so a pass from me.

The Liquidator 20/1 ****

Was one of the favourites before a bad run (5th) at an unsuitable Kempton in the Tolworth Hurdle. Trainer is trying to get him back in time for the Festival, which suggests he isn't ready to me. His been off the track longer than I'd want for this, so sadly I'll leave him alone, but place chances at a nice price.

Three Kingdoms 50/1 **

Won his last 2, but exposed and just not good enough.

Un Ace 50/1 ***

Won his only hurdle run so far, but not to a standard that will win this.

Valseur Lido 16/1 ***

Not run for 80 days, and hasn't beaten much in his 2 hurdle wins.

Vaniteux 10/1 ****

Fits all the trends, but hasn't run it a Graded Hurdle, looks like he'll like the drying ground, could cause a surprise.

Vautour 3/1 *****

Everything to like about the way he took apart The Tullow Tank last time. Perfect trendswise and will be a worthy winner.

Western Boy 18/1 ****

Had decent claims, with just a few 'not quites' on the trends. Off for 59 days is ok, but didn't win last time (2^nd in a Grade 2 Hurdle to Vautour, ¾ l).

Wicklow Brave 13/2 *****

Looks a major player, 'only' winning a Listed Hurdle is the only glitch, which I don't really care about. Has a good chance.

Wilde Blue Yonder 25/1 ***

2 falls in 3 starts. Fits many trends, but can't see that sort of jumping succeeding here.

Conclusions

This looks like a match between IRVING (5/2fav) and VAUTOUR (3/1), 2 favourites who are perfect on my trends. Wicklow Brave (13/2) had winning claims as well. Josses Hill (16/1) has been off for longer than ideal but I won't put you off. My pick at a price is GILGAMBOA (12/1) who won well in Ireland in January and if the ground doesn't dry out too much will be able to use his stamina to good effect.