Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders' H'cap Chase) – Class 2 – 3m 11/2f

Can Same Difference (right) win back to back renewals.

Overview:

Strong trends, but weight not so much an issue this year. Should be able to find something competitive.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Were rate within 8lbs of the RPR top rated horse.

10/10 Had run over 3 miles or more last time.

10/10 Had won a Chase.

10/10 Had run within 78 Days.

9/10 Were rated officially between 124 and 140.

9/10 Aged between 7 and 9.

8/10 Had won a Chase over at least 3 miles.

8/10 Finished in the top 3 last time.

7/10 Had run in fewer than 12 chases. The last 7 winners.

Additionally

15 of the last 20 winners were aged 8 or 9.

The last 13 winners had run over 3 miles or more last time out.

Ireland haven't won this in the last 30 renewals.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 0-0-1

6yo 0-2-15

7yo 2-9-53

8yo 2-3-55

9yo 5-8-48

10yo 1-7-33

11yo 0-0-15

12yo 0-0-10

13yo 0-1-4

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.1 stars

Roberto Goldback 18/1 **

Too old and too high in the weights, probably. Trip/Ground are fine, but at 12 he's is TOO old.

Tranquil Sea 20/1 **

Form of his win in a Veteran's chase not working out (Time For Rupert flopped) and is also 12.

Twirling Magnet 14/1 ****

Off for 131 days is not good. But avoided bad ground in the meantime. Won here on the ground and the distance in the autumn. Chance.

Our Father 20/1 ***

All wins on softer, looks a bit of a plodder who wants further. First time blinkers *shrug*

Buddy Bolero 16/1 *****

Not a great run on good ground in December, so trust will have to taken on that. First time blinkers are on.

Same Difference 18/1 ****

Won last year, and now only 4lbs higher. Ground will be fine and can run another big race.

Indian Castle 13/2fav ***

Ground, trip, course no problem, but is only 6. All winners in the last 10 have come from at least 3 miles last time, however with the bad ground around, maybe they wanted him to get a run in and not kill him.

Cause Of Causes 15/2 **

How short is this one. 6 year old, no win in 7 chases and only ever won at about 2 miles. Good run last time at 3 miles though but fails many trends.

Lost Glory 40/1 ***

Trip fine,ground fine, but very poor last 2 on good ground. Off for 89 days as well.

Swing Bill 40/1 **

He must want further (2 good runs in Grand National), but too old (13) and too exposed and off for 3 months.

Spring Heeled 16/1 *****

Out of form on conditions that should suit. No wins past 2m5 either.

Dursey Sound (NR)

Balnaslow 10/1 *****

Only point-to-point form at this distance, but place chances on his latest form.

Saint Are 40/1 ***

Don't think he's a 3 miler at Cheltenham, and off for nearly 4 months.

Mumbles Head 66/1 **

13 year old, who's been off for ages. Ground/trip fone, but not run at Cheltenham since him bumper days.

Fine Parchment 50/1 *

Doesn't look good enough at 11yo and exposed, but has form on ground and trip this season but last time wasn't inspiring.

Pickamus 66/1 ***

Trip/ground fine, but humped last time and record at Cheltenham doesn't inspire confidence for this 11yo.

There's No Panic 16/1 ****

Off the track for 96 days is a negative, but isn't too bad and is shortlisted.

Night Alliance 33/1 *****

Perfect on the trends. Pulled-Up last time on heavy, but has a chance today.

Tabhachtach 33/1 **

looks about ½ mile too far for him. No thanks.

Gas Line Boy 33/1 ****

85 days off not great, loos short of expereince, and well humped last time. No ins on ground this fast either.

Quinz 33/1 **

Too old now and no wins for 3 years.

Hunting Party 25/1 ***

Don't think he'll get the trip

Problema Tic 33/1 ***

Out of form. Should get the trip on the ground, but has had it this season and flopped. Also off for a tad too long.

Conclusions

Narrowed it down to 5 for the shortlist.

SAME DIFFERENCE (18/1, bet365, 5 pl) is weighted to repeat the feat or at least get pretty close.

THERE'S NO PANIC (16/1, bet365, 5pl) has been off for long than any of the last 10 winners, but has a chance if he's fit.

NIGHT ALLIANCE (33/1, Bet365, Stan James, 5pl) is perfect, but needs to bounce back today, but at 33/1 its a chance we can take.

Balnaslow (10/1) is too short to bet e/w, so just a watching brief there.

Indian Castle (13/2fav) is also too short but is placepot material.