DAY
ONE
Skybet
Supreme Novices' Hurdle – Grade 1 - 2m 1/2f
Overview
I
actually think this is the best race of the day, an intriguing
contest to start the four days, with plenty of future talent on
offer. The last 3 renewals have been a benefit for Willie Mullins and
Ruby Walsh and a bane for the bookies. The assumption is that this
years’ turn will be Min. People
are knocking him, for what he has (or hasn’t done), but he looks
good to
me along with Altior.
The
top 2
in the market are both
5 star horses, but neither
have run within the last 2 months. A leap year and the festival
dropping back a week could allow for a little leeway here and there.
10-year
Trends
10/10 Had
won over 2 miles. The last 5 had won over 2m 1/2f
or further.
10/10 Won
at least 50% of their Hurdles.
10/10 Had
run between 2 and 5 times over Hurdles.
10/10 Had
run less than 11 times in total in career.
9/10 Had
run within the last 59 days. [Exception Captain Cee Bee, 115
days in 2008]
9/10 Had
achieved an Adjusted Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 144+. [Exception
Ebazayan, 121 in 2007]. All had an Official Rating (OR) of
137+ or hadn't yet achieved a rating.
9/10 Were
aged either 5 or 6. [Exception Captain Cee Bee, aged 7]
9/10 Won
last time out (LTO). [Exception Menorah, 2nd in
2010]
8/10 Were
rated within 13lbs of the RPR Top Rated.
8/10 Were
not flat-bred horses, and Captain Cee Bee actually ran in a
bumper before his flat career.
7/10 Had
won a Grade 2+ Hurdle. The other 3 had not run in one, one won a
Class 2 Hurdle, the other 2, an Irish Maiden Hurdle.
Additionally
37
of the last 41 winners were aged 5 or 6.
Only
one 4 year-old has won in the last 42 years. [Hors La Loi III
in 1999]
20
of the last 21 winners had run within the last 68 days.
17
of the last 21 winners had run within the last 45 days.
17
of the last 19 winners had won last time.
Only
1 placed horse [Binocular] ran on the flat since 2008, from 48
qualifiers.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo 0-1-5
5yo 5-12-86
6yo 4-6-63
7yo 1-1-20
8yo 0-0-3
9yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-1-20
Nicky
Henderson 0-8-17
Alan
King 0-1-3
Contenders
- 10
year trends winner averaged
4.5
stars.
Altior 7/2
Bellshill 12/1
Buveur
D'Air 13/2
Charbel 25/1
Holly
Bush Henry 66/1
Min 15/8fav
Mister
Miyagi 40/1
North
Hill Harvey 33/1
Penglai
Pavilion 40/1
Petit
Mouchoir 50/1
Silver
Concorde 16/1
Supasundae 14/1
Tombstone 12/1
William
H Bonney 66/1
Conclusions
Very
difficult to put anyone off Min
and Altior.
Of
the others, I thought Bellshill
and Tombstone
would go for the Neptune Hurdle and think its a bit too speedy for
them, Buveur
D’Air
hasn’t contested a Graded race yet, so i’m overlooking that. With
Yanworth all the rage for the Neptune, it may pay to look towards the
horse he beat 23/4
lengths
(heavily eased mind) at Ascot in December. The time was pretty decent
and CHARBEL
(25/1
or 16/1 w/out Min, bet 365) looks
to be a little bit of value.
Racing
Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase – Grade 1 - 2m
Overview
Just
the 6 rivals take on Willie Mullins Douvan
(2/5fav), it looks a no bet race to me.
10-year
Trends
10/10 Aged
between 5 and 8 years old. Five older horses have failed to make the
frame. 6/7 year olds have won 8 of the last 9.
10/10 Top
2 in all Chase finishes
10/10 Had
run within the last 80 days.
10/10 Were
bred for a jumping career.
9/10 Rated
within 6lbs of the RPR Top Rated. [Exception Western Warhorse
(23lbs) in 2014]
9/10 An
Adjusted RPR of 160 or more. (10/10 OR 147+ or unrated.) [Exception
Western Warhorse 148]
8/10 Ran
to a Hurdles rating of 143 or more. [Exceptions, 128 & 130]
8/10 Had
3-5 Chase starts. Both exceptions less.
8/10 Won
a Novice Chase between 2m and 2m3f. Exceptions won at 2m4f and
2m41/2f.
7/10 Had
won at Cheltenham or had a top 4 at a previous festival. 2 exceptions
hadn’t run at the course and the other was 2nd in a
Handicap Hurdle.
Additionally
27
of the last 29 winners had finished 1st or 2nd
on their last start.
23
of the last 25 winners started at 9/1 or less.
16
of the last 18 winners had not unseated/fallen in their chase career.
14
of the last 16 winners had a hurdles rating of 142+,
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-3-14
6yo 2-2-30
7yo 6-8-46
8yo 1-5-18
9yo 0-0-3
10yo 0-0-1
12yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 2-3-9
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 1-1-9
Henry
de Bromhead (Ire) 1-0-2
Contenders
–
10 year trends winner
averaged 4.4
stars.
Aso 66/1
Baltimore
Rock 66/1
Douvan 2/5fav
Fox
Norton 40/1
Sizing
John 8/1
The
Game Changer 12/1
Vaniteux 11/2
Conclusions
Its
very hard to see past the odds on hotpot, Douvan, for Willie
Mullins and Ruby Walsh in this. He won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
with aplomb last year and so far hasn’t been troubled in any of his
3 chase starts to date, although he hasn’t been perfect. With just
7 runners, there’s no each-way bet either. Vaniteux look
most likely to fill the runner-up spot, with Sizing John
beaten on all 3 contests with Douvan in his career. No bet for
me.
Ultima
Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 3m 1f
Overview
The
first handicap of the festival and one for the up and coming
unexposed staying chasers. Ideally you will be looking of a 2nd
season chaser with proven stamina at 3 miles who is carrying a decent
weight, who has raced within the last 6 weeks. An interesting little
factoid that I read before this years renewal of the Cleeve Hurdle
(won by Thistlecrack) was that it’s a great prep race for this
particular race at the festival. Trainers looking for a 3 mile run
for their horse whilst protecting their chase handicap mark. Chief
Dan George (10th), Bensalem (5th) and last
year, The Druids Nephew (5th) have all won this race after
running in the Cleeve. This year The Young Master (5th)
ran in this year’s renewal.
10-year
Trends
10/10 Aged
between 7 and 10 years old.
10/10 OR
between 129-146.
10/10 Won
over 2 miles 71/2
furlongs or more.
9/10 Carried no more than
11-03 in weight.
8/10 Had run within the
last 47 days.
8/10 Had run 5 times or
less that season.
7/10 Finished in the top 3
last time. 2 winners ran in decent Hurdle races last time.
7/10 Had
run less than 10
times over fences.
Additionally
The
last 17 winners were aged between 7 and 10.
14 or
the last 16 winners were official rated no more than 143. exceptions
the last 2 years were rated 145 & 146.
Only
two horses aged 11 or more have placed since 1997.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 0-3-14
7yo 3-10-42
8yo 4-2-49
9yo 1-8-47
10yo 2-3-31
11yo 0-2-23
12yo 0-0-5
13yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Jonjo
O'Neill 3-0-11
David
Pipe 1-3-14
Neil
Mulholland 1-0-2
Colin
Tizzard 1-0-6
Henry
de Bromhead (Ire) 0-1-2
Philip
Hobbs 0-1-7
Paul
Nicholls 0-1-9
Venetia
Williams 0-1-13
Contenders
–
10 year trends winner
averaged 3.9
stars.
Shanahan’s
Turn 25/1
Holywell 7/1jtfav
Carole’s
Destrier 12/1
Southfield
Theatre 20/1
Theatre
Guide 14/1
Morning
Assemby 14/1
Double
Ross 40/1
The
Young Master 14/1
Kruzhlinin 8/1
Un
Temps Pour Tout 14/1
Fox
Appeal 40/1
Katenko 40/1
Spring
Heeled 33/1
Beg
To Differ 16/1
Regal
Encore 16/1
Algernon
Pazham 33/1
Out
Sam 7/1jtfav
O
Maonlai 50/1
Ballykan 33/1
Doing
Fine 50/1
Indian
Castle 33/1
Band
Of Blood 50/1
Audacious
Plan 50/1
According
To Trev 100/1
Conclusions
I’ve
whittled it down to 2 horses. Some of those 5 stars at the bottom
flatter them in a strange handicap. I can’t believe that some of
those running over hurdles are protecting a handicap mark the
wouldn’t have got them into the last few renewals. Anyway, while
THE YOUNG MASTER (14/1, general, 5 places) looks little high
in the weights, Sam Waley-Cohen takes off 3lbs and Neil Mulholland
won this last year with The Druid’s Nephew. OUT SAM
(7/1jtfav, general) is a progressive type at the right end of the
handicap and is trends perfect.
Stan
James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy – Grade 1 – 2m 1/2f
Overview
Last
year’s front 2, Faugheen and Arctic Fire have picked up injuries
that rule them out of this renewal, so the race looks pretty open and
there are trends doubts about all of the runners. Annie Power
(9/4f) has been supplemented
for the race (along with Lil’ Rockerfeller,
33/1).
10-year
Trends
10/10 Had
won at the distance.
9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of
166 or more.
9/10 Had won a Class 1
Hurdle that season, 6 won a Grade 1, 1 won a Grade 2 and 2 won a
Listed race.
9/10 Were rated within 8lbs
of the RP Top Rated horse.
8/10 Had run within the
last 51 days. All ran within 79 days.
8/10 Had achieved a RP Top
Speed of 151 or more.
8/10 Were aged between 6
and 8 years old. One exception was a previous winner. No horse aged
10 or more since Sea Pigeon in 1980 & 1981.
8/10 Had between 5 and 12
Hurdle runs. 2 exceptions had more, one being a previous winner.
8/10 Had won a Grade 1
Hurdle.
7/10 Had won last time out.
Exceptions were, 2nd, 3rd and 4th in
Graded Hurdles.
Additionally
26
of the last 32 winners had won last time.
24
of the last 26 winners had won that season.
21
of the last 25 winners were from the first 5 in the betting.
20
of the last 24 winners had placed at a previous festival.
19
of the last 28 winners had won at Cheltenham.
The
only 5-year-old to win since 1985 was Katchit in 2008.
Since
1951, only 4 winners were 9 or older. Only 2 winners were aged 10+
No
reigning Supreme Novice Winner has won since 1971.
Since
1993, 2 winners had not run in that calendar year, including Faugheen
last year.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-6-28
6yo 3-5-34
7yo 4-2-26
8yo 1-4-15
9yo 1-2-8
10yo 0-0-4
11yo 0-1-5
12yo 0-0-4
13yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 2-6-16
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-3-11
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-3
Contenders
– average winner 4.3
stars
Camping
Ground 20/1
Lively
outsider who ticks lots of boxes, beaten by Thistlecrack in the 3m
Cleeve Hurdle last time on heavy, so doubts that he has the pace to
win this although place chances aren’t out of the question.
Hargam 25/1
Looks
outclassed in this, but only 7 lengths behind Faugheen last time.
Identity
Thief 13/2
Not
run since December, when 2nd to Nichols Canyon.
If he’s fit enough he could go close.
Lil
Rockerfeller 33/1
Supplemented
after an impressive win in the National Spirit Hurdle (Grade 2) at
Fontwell. He could place but Camping Ground beat him 11
lengths earlier in the season, needs to improve to place, but that’s
not out of the question.
My
Tent Of Yours 10/1
Off
for 2 years since beaten just a neck by Jezki in 2014, if he’s fit
he could go close, but he’s now 9 and that’s another negative.
Nichols
Canyon 11/2
Only
horse to beat Faugheen, then he beat Identity Thief,
before Faugheen thrashed him 28 lengths in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
Has a big chance, but Ruby Walsh is on Annie Power.
Peace
And Co 25/1
Triumph
winner last year, truly awful this year, pulling his head off in his
first race. This looks like it will have a decent pace and that will
help him settle. It has to if he has a chance.
Sempre
Medici 25/1
Beaten
little this season, but has a place chance at best.
Sign
Of A Victory 100/1
Shown
no form since his novice season 2 years ago.
The
New One 6/1
Has
his chance gone? 3rd and 5th in the last 2
renewals. But ticks all the boxes and this is not a classic.
Top
Notch 16/1
Beaten
in all 3 Graded Hurdles so far, so likely to find a few too good.
Annie
Power 9/4fav
Supplemented
for the race after Faugheen’s injury (same owners), must go close
but only 2 defeats in 15 race career are here. Handy 7lb mares
allowance may tip the balance. Fails the “won a Class 1 Hurdle in
the season” trend, but only ran once as a prep for the Mares race,
this is tougher and is she fit enough.
Conclusions
The
New One is the only 5 star horse in the race, but it doesn’t
look a great renewal and possibly a watching brief should be adopted.
Annie Power looks a fair price but no more. No bets for me at
this moment, but split stakes on The New One and Nichols
Canyon a possibility.
OLBG
(David Nicholson) Mares’ Hurdle – Grade 2 – 2m 4f
Overview
With
Annie Power supplemented for the Champion Hurdle, the spotlight
switches to Vroum Vroum Mag as the Willie
Mullins horse to follow this season. It looks fairly straight forward
as she has beaten many in this field on her previous runs.
8-year
'Trends'
8/8 Aged
between 5 and 10 years old. [5yos have the best win record, but only
1 has placed]
8/8 Raced
between 5 and 17 times over Hurdles.
8/8 Rated
within 23lbs of RP Top Rated.
7/8 Won
over 2m4f or more. [Whiteoak won over 2m1f]
7/8 Had
an Adjusted RPR of at least 156.
7/8 Had
won a race worth £12k. [Whiteoak won a £6k race]
7/8 Won
last time.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo 0-0-3
5yo 2-1-24
6yo 1-6-40
7yo 2-5-35
8yo 1-2-20
9yo 1-1-8
10yo 1-0-3
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 7-1-10
Nicky
Henderson 0-3-9
Harry
Fry 0-1-2
.
Contenders–
8
year
trends
winner averaged
4.5
stars
Aurore
D'Estruval 12/1
Bitofapuzzle 12/1
Desert
Queen 33/1
Fairytale
Theatre 50/1
Flementime 100/1
Flute
Bowl 20/1
Gitane
Du Berlais 25/1
Keppols
Que en 33/1
Legacy
Gold 50/1
Lily
Waugh 25/1
Melbourne
Lady 100/1
Morello
Royale 50/1
Pass
The Time 66/1
Polly
Peachum 6/1
Rock
On The Moor 50/1
Rons
Dream 50/1
Stephanie
Frances 33/1
Tara
Point 16/1
The
Govaness 16/1
Vroum
Vroum Mag 11/10fav
Conclusions
With
the Quevega/Mullins factor still in full effect, our trends aren’t
too helpful. Vroum Vroum Mag should win and Polly Peachum
looks the best of the rest. I’m toying with a few bets even though,
there really isn’t a strong one. GITANE DU BERLAIS (14/1,
bet 365 w/o VVM market) will appreciate drier ground than when 4th
to Polly Peachum in her last hurdle race (her first try at
2m4f). Polly Peachum (3/1) and The Governess (8/1) both
without VVM are also value in that market.
146th
Year Of The National Hunt Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders' Novices'
Chase) – Listed – 4m
Overview
Since
the race opened up in 2010 into a level weights amateur Novice Chase,
the horses have got better and the winners are easier to spot.
Instead of an A.RPR of 131 or better, the mini-trend is to look for
horses rated 154+ or actually 159+ as 5 of the last 6 winners were. 4
of the last 5 winners are also within 2lbs of the RPR top rated as
well.
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
raced over fences at least 3 times.
9/10 Had
finished in the top 2 in a Chase over at least 2 miles 71/2
furlongs.
9/10 Had
achieved a hurdles rating of 119 in their career.
9/10 Had
finished in the top 5 last time.
9/10 Had
an A.RPR of 131 or better. [The last 6 154+]
8/10 Had
been off the track for between 30 and 78 days.
8/10 Had
won over at least 3 miles in any sphere.
8/10 Were
aged either 7 or 8 years old. Exceptions aged 6 and 9.
8/10 Had
finished in the top 2 in one of their last 2 starts.
Additionally
The
last 13 winners had at least 3 starts over fences.
10
of the last 14 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.
Since
1989, only one 5 or 6 year old has won the race (Tricky Trickster
in 2009)
All
11 horses aged 10 and above were unplaced in the last 10 years.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 1-1-27
7yo 5-10-69
8yo 3-7-58
9yo 1-2-26
10yo 0-0-8
11yo 0-0-1
12yo 0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 2-0-3
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 1-1-8
Rebecca
Curtis 1-0-2
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 1-0-7
Jonjo
O’Neill 1-0-10
David
Pipe 0-2-6
Venetia
Williams 0-1-5
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.0
stars
Bally
Beaufort 50/1
Definitely
Red 16/1
How
About It 100/1
Johnny
Og 100/1
Local
Show 16/1
Measureofmydreams 10/1
Minella
Rocco 9/2fav
Native
River 8/1
Noble
Endeavor 7/1
Pleasant
Company 25/1
Pont
Alexandre 8/1
Shantou
Flyer 25/1
Southfield
Royale 8/1
Vicente 16/1
Vieux
Lion Rouge 25/1
Vintage
Vinnie 50/1
Viva
Steve 50/1
Waldorf
Salad 40/1
Warrantor 40/1
Ballychorus 16/1
Conclusions
Plenty
of potential talent in this renewal, and with the race favouring
better horses nowadays, some of the stars flatter some of the horses
and mini-trends from the last 6 renewals help narrow the field. First
of all if we remove horses that don’t have a rating of 158+ with 3
or more chase starts, are aged 7 or above and haven’t raced in a
Grade 2+ Chase we are left with: Defintely Red, Noble Endeavour
and Pont Alexandre. I think the win bet is NOBLE
ENDEAVOUR (7/1, coral, WHill) who has leading amateur Jamie Codd
on board and is trained by Gordon Elliott, who has won it twice from
only 3 runners. But DEFINITELY RED (16/1) can’t go unbacked
as he’s trends perfect and a nice each-way price.
Close
Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase – Listed – 2m 41/2f
Overview
When
is a handicap, not a handicap? I guess it’s when just 4lbs cover
the top and bottom runners of the 20. This is the case
this year, after
just 6lbs last year, so trainers kind of know where
they have to be throughout the season when training a horse for the
race. Some of the trends are becoming irrelevant.
10-year
Trends
10/10 Aged
under 9. Horses aged 6 or 7 have won 8 renewals.
10/10 Official
Rating of 132-142.
9/10 Had finished in the
top 2 last time out.
9/10 Had raced over fences
between 3 and 6 times.
9/10 Had last run within
the last 45 days.
9/10 Carried a weight
within 9lbs of the bottom weight.
9/10 Hadn't won more than 2
chases.
8/10 Had won over at least
2 ½ miles.
8/10 Finished top 4 in all
completed chases.
Additionally
Only 1
horse that carried a penalty ran into a place.
6 and
7 year olds have won 8 from 105 runners, all other ages are 2 from
71.
Horses
in first time head-gear have placed 5 times in the last 7 renewals.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-1-16
6yo 3-7-34
7yo 5-7-71
8yo 1-6-37
9yo 0-4-14
10yo 0-0-3
11yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Rebecca
Curtis 1-0-2
Paul
Nicholls 1-0-13
Willie
Mullims (Ire) 0-1-1
Colin
Tizzard 0-1-4
Tom
George 0-1-6
Charlie
Longsdon 0-1-7
Jonjo
O'Neill 0-1-8
Contenders
– 10
year trends winner
averaged 4.1
stars
Ballyalton 12/1
Aloomomo 6/1fav
Bridgets
Pet 25/1
Thomas
Brown 14/1
Domesday
Book 20/1
Amoe
Alato 22/1
McKinley 14/1
Javert 14/1
Killala
Quay 20/1
Racing
Pulse 28/1
On
Tour 25/1
Willow’s
Saviour 10/1
Twelve
Roses 33/1
Double
Shuffle 12/1
Bouvreuil 12/1
Jayo
Time 40/1
Rezorbi 16/1
Katgary 20/1
Fourth
Act 25/1
Five
In A Row 20/1
Conclusions
Looks
fairly open, but my selection is THOMAS BROWN
(16/1), who was hugely punted into favourite in the BetBright Chase
at Kempton, where he blundered while in contention. First time
blinkers should help him focus and 16/1 looks very generous. Others
to consider for the placepot or forecast purposes are Twelve
Roses (33/1), Fourth
Act (25/1) and Five
In a Row (20/1).
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