JLT
(Golden Miller) Novices' Chase – Grade 2 – 2m 4f
5-Year
Trends
All
5 winners had:-
Won
at least a Grade 2 Chase or were 2nd in a Grade 1.
Won
over at 2m4 or 2m5f.
Had
an Adjusted RPR of 161 or more.
Aged
6 or 7.
Had
between 3 and 5 Chase runs.
Were
in the top 4 all season.
Had
achieved a season win.
Had
run within the last 54 days.
Additionally
10
of the 15 top 3 finishers had won last time out.
10
of the 15 top 4 finishers had run well in a festival handicap hurdle.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 0-0-3
6yo 2-2-18
7yo 3-6-22
8yo 0-2-7
9yo 0-0-4
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 2-1-9
Philip
Hobbs 0-1-3
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-1-4
Contenders
- 5
year trends winner
averaged 5.0
stars
As
De Mee 28/1
Black
Hercules 5/1
Bristol
De Mai 5/1
Garde
La Victoire 4/1fav
King's
Odyssey non-runner
L'Ami
Serge 9/1
Mount
Gunnery 125/1
Outlander 6/1
Three
Musketeers 12/1
Zabana 9/1
Conclusions
Looks
an intiguing contest, the 5 year trends are fairly strong. There’s
no bet here, but Garde La Victoire looks a worthy favourite
having beaten Bristol De Mai earlier in the season.
Pertemps
Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) – Listed - 3m
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
run within the last 61 days.
10/10 Weight
carried within 15lbs of bottom weight.
10/10 We
either British or Irish-bred.
9/10 Were
aged between 6 and 9. [Buena Vista retained his title aged 10]
8/10 Had
won over 3 miles or more.
8/10 Officially
rated between 129 and 142.
7/10 Had
won at least a Class 2 hurdle.
Additionally
13
of the last 14 winners were rated lower than 143.
10
of the last 12 winners were 10/1 or bigger, including 2 50/1 winners.
{Last 2 9/2 & 9/1]
11
of the last 20 winners had won last-time out from only 20% of
runners.
7
of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or older.
Only
1 5yo has won in the history of the race.
Just
2 of the last 19 winners had won it's qualifying race.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 0-3-19
6yo 2-6-50
7yo 1-8-56
8yo 4-8-49
9yo 2-2-27
10yo 1-1-17
11yo 0-1-13
12yo 0-0-2
13yo 0-1-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 1-1-11
Jonjo
O’Neill 1-1-18
Venetia
Williams 1-0-6
Nicky
Henderson 1-0-12
Paul
Nicholls 0-2-9
Jessica
Harrington (Ire) 0-1-2
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.3
stars
Taglitelle 16/1
Flintham 40/1
Ruacana 50/1
If
In Doubt 11/1
Arpege
D’Alene 16/1
Missed
Approach 11/1
Un
Ace 25/1
Warriors
Tale 22/1
Join
The Clan 28/1
Kilfinichen
Bay 50/1
Our
Kaempfer 10/1
Cup
Final 10/1
Mall
Dini 20/1
Oscar
Sam 22/1
Padge 40/1
Broxbourne 28/1
Leave
At Dawn 7/1fav
Westren
Warrior 22/1
Dubawi
Island 50/1
Saddlers
Encore 18/1
Rolling
Maul 50/1
Box
Office 22/1
All
Hell Let Loose 28/1
Rathpatrick 40/1
Conclusions
Another
fiendishly difficult handicap, but the Irish trainers have a terrible
record in it so some of those 5 star horses can be struck off (not
confidently). With the ground drying out, my shortlist is CUP FINAL
(10/1, 5places, genral), SADDLERS
ENCORE
(18/1, 5pl, gen) and BROXBOURNE
(28/1, 5pl gen).
Ryanair
(Festival
Trophy) Chase –
Grade 1 – 2m 4f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
an Adjusted RPR of 165 or more.
10/10 Aged
10 or younger.
10/10 Had
finished top 2 in one of their last 2 Chase finishes.
9/10 Had
won at the distance. Uxizandre had won over 2m4f
9/10 Had
won at the course. Riverside Theatre the
exception.
9/10 Had
less than 5 runs since October.
8/10 Were
rated within 5lbs of the RP Top rated horse.
8/10 Had
won a Grade 1 chase, all since the race was upgraded to a Grade 1.
Fondmort won a Grade 2, when it was a Grade 2 Chase and is
incuded.
8/10 Had
run between 5 and 17 times over fences. 1 with 22 Chases had won
before.
6/10 Had
finished in the top 3 last time out. 3 that did not ran in the King
George Chase, Uxizandre unseated in a Grade 2.
Additionally
8
of the 10 winners started at 6/1 or shorter.
7
of the 8 winners since the upgrade were rated 161+ on official
ratings.
7
of the 8 winners since the upgrade were rated 170+ by the Racing
Post.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 1-2-5
7yo 2-5-15
8yo 3-7-35
9yo 1-3-28
10yo 3-2-15
11yo 0-1-7
12yo 0-0-3
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 2-2-12
David
Pipe 2-1-5
Alan
King 1-2-6
Paul
Nicholls 1-2-13
Philip
Hobbs 0-1-6
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-1-7
Contenders
–
10
year trends winner
averaged 4.6
stars
Al
Ferof 6/1
Annacotty 66/1
Captain
Conan 125/1
Champagne
West 66/1
Dynaste 40/1
Gilgamboa 40/1
Josses
Hill 25/1
Oscar
Rock 125/1
Road
To Riches 8/1
Smashing 28/1
Taquin
Du Seuil 20/1
Valseur
Lido 12/1
Vautour 11/10fav
Vibrato
Valtat 40/1
Village
Vic 33/1
Conclusions:
This
all revolves around whether a ‘90% fit’ Vautour
is still good enough to with a Grade 1 over his optimum trip at
cramped odds. After Sprinter Sacre and Any Currency’s wins for the
elder statemen, maybe AL FEROF
(14/1) can do it again today, although I don’t really think he has
much to prove to anyone and this is his perfect race. TAQUIN
DE SEIUL (20/1), he didn’t
jump well in last years renewal so will have to jump better, but
there are too many shorties in here who were going for the Gold Cup
and I want to be with proper 2m5f horses on this quicker ground.
DYNASTE (40/1)
looks a little too big here.
He’s 16/1 in the without Vautour market with Bet365, one of those
must be worth a dabble.
Ryanair
World Hurdle – Grade 1 - 3m
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Aged
between 6 and 9.
10/10 Less
than 5 runs since August.
9/10 Finished
in the top 2 last time. [9 won]
9/10 Top
2 in all hurdle runs that season.
9/10 Had
previous festival experience. (8 in Grade 1s)
8/10 Had
an Adjusted RPR of at least 165.
8/10 Had
won a Graded Hurdle over 3 miles or more. (both exceptions had won
Grade 2 or better over shorter)
7/10 Had
run in between 10 and 20 hurdle races. (Big Buck's last 2 wins
excepted)
Additionally
18
of the last 22 winners had run in the previous year's festival.
11
of the last 14 winners had won a Graded Hurdle over 3 miles or more.
No
Champion Hurdle contender has won since 1992.
No
winner came from out of the top 2 in the previous year's renewal
since 1981.
The
last 28 winners finished in the top 4 last time.
15
of the last 16 winners finished in the top 2 last time.
14
of the last 15 winners came from the top 4 in the betting.
13
of the last 14 winners had been in the top 2 over hurdles all season.
No
5-year old has ever won.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 0-2-8
6yo 4-9-35
7yo 1-4-37
8yo 2-2-30
9yo 3-4-18
10yo 0-1-8
11yo 0-0-5
13yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Paul
Nicholls 4-3-15
Warren
Greatrex 1-0-1
Rebecca
Curtis 0-1-2
David
Pipe 0-1-7
Nicky
Henderson 0-1-11
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.0
stars
Alpha
Des Obeaux 8/1
At
Fishers Cross 40/1
Aux
Ptits Sons 16/1
Bobs
Worth 50/1
Cole
Harden 7/1
Kilcooley 22/1
Knockara
Beau 200/1
Lieutenant
Colonel 50/1
Martello
Tower 28/1
Saphir
Du Rheu 22/1
Thistlecrack 5/4fav
Un
Temps Pour Tout non-runner
Whisper 12/1
Conclusions:
Thistlecrack
looks a worthy favourite, it’s
hard to find something to beat him. Whisper
and Cole Harden need
to get back to their spring form if they are to challenge and don’t
offer any value. Aux Ptits Sons
won the Coral Cup last year off a 6 month break, there’s more to
come from him, but I’d like to see a bit more of him before I bet.
Martello Tower won
the Albert Bartlett last year, but their record is particularly poor
in this. KILCOOLEY
(14/1, Ladbrokes, w/o Thistlecrack) could be a little bit of value in
this.
Brown
Advisory & Merriebelle Stable (Mildmay
Of Flete) Plate Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 2m 5f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
won at least a Class 3 Chase.
10/10 Had
won over at least 2m3f.
9/10 Had
less than 17 Chase starts.
9/10 Officially
Rated btween 130-140.
8/10 Carried
less than 10-11.
8/10 Aged
between 6 and 9.
7/10 Hadn't
run in either of that season's Cheltenham Gold Cup Handicaps.
7/10 Had
run within the last 42 days.
7/10 Had
run at a previous festival.
Additionally
26
of the last 28 winners were rated less than 142.
19
of the last 21 winners carried less than 11 stone
19
of the last 24 winners had raced at a previous festival.
18
of the last 24 winners had a top 4 finish last time out. (not the
last four, so treat with caution)
14
of the last 15 winners were at double-figure odds.
Only
1 Irish trained winner since 1951.
Only
1 of the last 16 winners had run more than 16 times over fences.
The
Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (in November) hasn't won this in the last
22 years.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 0-1-4
6yo 1-3-20
7yo 1-3-39
8yo 4-13-65
9yo 2-6-44
10yo 1-4-32
11yo 1-1-17
12yo 0-0-3
13yo 0-1-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Venetia
Williams 3-2-17
David
Pipe 3-2-20
Sue
Smith 1-1-5
Nicky
Henderson 1-1-18
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-7
Paul
Nicholls 0-2-15
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 3.5
stars
Ballynagour 25/1
Tenor
Nivernais non runner
Baily
Green 40/1
Kings
Palace 12/1
Tango
De Juilley 33/1
Bear’s
Affair 40/1
Ballycasey 20/1
Johns
Spirit 6/1fav
Niceonefrankie 20/1
Dare
Me 33/1
Art
Mauresque 14/1
Darna 25/1
Little
Jon 33/1
Empire
Of Dirt 20/1
Stilletto 10/1
Fingal
Bay 10/1
Buckers
Bridge 22/1
Salubrious 20/1
Sew
On Target 28/1
Kings
Lad 66/1
La
Vaticane (5x) non runner
Quincy
Des Pictons 125/1
Full
Shift 12/1
Astracad 50/1
Conclusions
Ah
good, another impossible handicap I can’t pick the winner of,
FINGAL BAY (10/1) will always run his race, but might find one
or two too good. Darne won last year and has place chances too.
ART
MAURESQUE (14/1, 5pl, gen) only fails the Ratings trend, which
most of the field does, his weight is ok and he doesn’t fail
anything too bad. He’ll love the ground and can run a bold race.
Trull
House Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Dawn Run Novices’ Hurdle) –
Grade 2 – 2m 1f
Overview
A
new race to fill out the thursday to 7 races. The favourite is Willie
Mullins’ Limini, though
the top rated horse is actually Smart Talk.
Without anything to go on, this should be a small stakes race,
however I’ve applied trends from a similar race ie the Supreme
Novices’ Hurdle in an effort to reduce the field.
Aged
4-6: Although 4yo’s don’t win the SNH, I don’t want to rule
anything out although juvenile girls have an excellent record against
the boys in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle and I really expect the
5/6 to be on top here. Girly Girl is a 7yo and is the only horse to
fail the first trend.
Had
won at the distance, ideally over an extended 2m 1/2f,
rther than the bare 2 miles. This rules out Bantam, Dusky Legend and
Jaune Et Bleue.
Had
won a Class 1 Hurdle: I will give leeway to Class 2/3 winners who
may be unexposed and on the upgrade. We lose Bloody Mary, Awesome
Rosie, Chocca Wocca, Danielle’s Journey, Robins Reef and Water
Sprite.
Had
run within the last 2 months: Out goes Tea In Transvaal.
Has
an A.RPR of 145+: Similar to
the SNH, we lose Whistle Dixie and
Why Wait.
Finished
Top 2 Last Time: Bye Bye to
Actinpieces and
Tara Flow (6th).
Had
run over hurdles, 3-5 times: Leeway will be given but the only
ones outside of 2-6 have already been ruled out.
Bloody
Mary 12/1
Limini 4/5fav
Smart
Talk 7/1
Tea
In Transvaal 22/1
Actinpieces 66/1
Awesome
Rosie 40/1
Bantam 50/1
Chocca
Wocca 16/1
Danielle’s
Journey 66/1
Dusky
Legend 50/1
Girly
Girl 40/1
Robins
Reef 25/1
Tara
Flow 40/1
Water
Sprite 100/1
Whistle
Dixie 33/1
Why
Wait 125/1
Jaune
Et Bleue 66/1
Conclusions
We
are left with Limini and
Smart Talk. SMART TALK
(7/1) is the obvious value especially when he’s top rated.
Fulke
Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase) –
Class 2 – 3m 11/2f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
run over 2 miles 7 furlongs or more last time.
9/10 Were
rate within 8lbs of the RPR top rated horse.
9/10 Had
run within 78 Days.
9/10 Aged
between 7 and 9.
9/10 Were
rated officially between 124 and 140.
8/10 Had
won 1 or 2 Chases. Exceptions 3 and 5 wins.
8/10 Had
run in fewer than 12 chases.
8/10 Not
had a conditional jockey on board.
8/10 Had
won a Chase over at least 3 miles.
7/10 Finished
in the top 3 in one of last 2 starts.
Additionally
20
of the last 23 winners were aged 7 to 9.
The
last 30 winners had run in a handicap last time out.
The
last 16 winners had run over 3 miles or more last time out.
Ireland
won this in 2014 for the first time since 1984.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 0-3-14
7yo 3-8-49
8yo 1-2-58
9yo 5-8-53
10yo 0-8-31
11yo 0-0-16
12yo 1-1-11
13yo 0-0-3
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
David
Pipe 2-2-22
Jonjo
O’Neill 1-2-17
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-3-3
Venetia
Williams (Ire) 0-3-10
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-2-4
Tony
Martin (Ire) 0-2-6
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.5
stars
Mon
Parrain 50/1
Knock
House 20/1
Perfect
Candidate 28/1
The
Job Is Right 25/1
Cause
Of Causes 6/1
Midnight
Prayer 25/1
Splash
Of Ginge 40/1
Doctor
Harper 11/2fav
Lost
Legend 33/1
Upswing 9/1
Sambremont 16/1
The
Giant Bolster 11/1
A
Good Skin 25/1
Capard
King 40/1
Silvergrove 14/1
Top
Wood (5x) 22/1
Alternatif 33/1
Grandads
Horse 33/1
Ericht 40/1
Amigo 40/1
Corrin
Wood 40/1
Indian
Castle 20/1
Your
Busy non-runner
Waldorf
Salad non-runner
Conclusions
A
GOOD SKIN (25/1, 5pl Bet365) is the best on the trends and the
ground is ok. Hopefully he’ll run a good race, one down-side is his
claiming jockey on board. Others for the shortlist are Upswing,
Top Wood and Indian Castle. Favourites,
Doctor Harper and
Cause Of Causes both
didnt run in a 3 mile handicap last time out, although we know Cause
Of Causes has the stamina for
this.
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