DAY
TWO
Neptune
Investment Management (Baring Bingham) Novices' Hurdle –
Grade 1 – 2m 5f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Were
aged either 5 or 6.
9/10 Had
an Adjusted RPR of 145 or better. (Exception had raced just once)
9/10 Had
at least 2 runs over the sticks.
9/10 Had
won, or at least, placed in a Graded Hurdle. (Exception once raced)
9/10 Were
rated within 9lbs of the RPR top rated.
9/10 Were
bred for National Hunt (Point-to-Points or Bumpers)
8/10 Had
won at least 40% of their hurdle races.
8/10 Had
not run at a previous festival, (ie last years bumper).
8/10 Had
won over at least 2m4f. 1 exeption won a 3 mile Point to Point.
7/10 Had
finished in the top 2 in all Hurdles so far.
Additionally
31
of the last 32 winners had finished in the top 2 last time out.
28
of the last 30 winners were from the top 6 in the betting.
22
of the last 23 winners were aged either 5 or 6.
15
of the last 17 winners were NH-bred.
No
winner aged 4 since 1991. All 21 unplaced.
No
winner aged 7+ since 1974.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo 0-0-5
5yo 4-6-49
6yo 6-11-63
7yo 0-3-22
8yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-5-13
Dermot
Weld (Ire) 1-1-3
Nicky
Henderson 1-0-11
Alan
King 0-1-8
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.6
stars
A
Toi Phil 8/1
Bello
Conti 20/1
Ghost
River 150/1
Its'afreebee 50/1
O
O Seven 25/1
Thomas
Hobson 20/1
Vigil 25/1
Welsh
Shadow 50/1
Yala
Enki 50/1
Yanworth 6/4fav
Yorkhill 5/2
Conclusions:
Not
really a race to find an each-way winner and Yanworth is a
rock solid favourite, with Yorkhill an able 2nd
fav.
RSA
Chase – Grade 1 – 3m 1/2f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Were
horses bred for National Hunt racing.
10/10 Had
finished top 3 in a Grade 1/2 Chase.
10/10 Were
rated to within 15lbs of the RPR top rated horse.
10/10 Had
raced over hurdle AND fences between 9 and 16 times.
10/10 Had
been a Novice Hurdler the previous season.
9/10 Had
run within the last 47 days. Don Poli was off for 72 days last
year.
9/10 Had
an Adjusted RPR of at least 159. Exception was Lord Windermere
(155).
9/10 Had
started between 3 and 5 Chases. Don Poli (2 chases)
9/10 Had
finished in the top 2 last time. Lord Windermere was 3rd
within ½ length of winner.
8/10 Were
aged 7 years old. Don Poli was 6. Other exception, Star De
Mohaison, was 5 but the
10lb weight allowance is now only 1lb.
Additionally
50
of the last 51 winners had run that year. Don Poli, last year,
ran on 28th December.
26
of the last 28 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.
20
of the last 22 winners had started at least 3 chases. Don Poli
(2) an exception.
21
of the last 23 winners were British/Irish bred.
20
of the last 23 winners were Novice Hurdlers last season.
13
of the last 16 winners were aged 7.
No
horse older than 8 has won since 1992 [Minnehoma].
Only
3 6-year olds have won since 1978.
Only
1 5-year old has won since 1950.
No
ex-flat horse has placed since 1994.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-1-6
6yo 1-4-19
7yo 8-11-64
8yo 0-3-21
9yo 0-0-12
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 2-2-14
Paul
Nicholls 2-1-12
Nicky
Henderson 1-3-7
Jonjo
O’Neill 1-0-2
Tom
George 0-1-1
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-1-2
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-1-5
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.4
stars
Blaklion 10/1
Le
Mercurey 33/1
More
Of That 2/1fav
No
More Heroes 5/2
Roi
Des Francs 12/1
Seeyouatmidnight 12/1
Shaneshill 20/1
Vyta
Du Roc 10/1
Conclusions:
Don
Poli broke a lot of trends last season and that could continue with
former World Hurdle winner More Of That as they both haven’t
run this calendar year and have only 2 chase starts, in addition More
Of That hasn’t been tested at Graded level. The trouble is
Jonjo O’Neill ain’t in great form (won 4 miler tuesday), while
Willie Mullins always is. I’d rather be on No More Heroes,
who has jumped like a stag in his races and could still go off
favourite. Blacklion has been running well this season, but
this looks too hot, I thought he might go for the 4 miler on tuesday
and the drying ground might go against him here. Seeyouatmidnight
beat him earlier in the season, but jumping will be put to the test
here. The form has been franked with Vyta Du Roc closely
matched with Minella Rocco (1st) and Bouvreiul (2nd)
on tuesday, however can he win? Doubtful, but he can place
definitely, but at 10/1, it’s a little tight if he can’t win.
Shaneshill can’t win and should be in the JLT. Looks like a
quality renewal and probably just a watching brief. If Vyta
goes 12/1 he may be an each-way bet.
Coral
Cup (Handicap Hurdle) – Grade 3 – 2m 5f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Carried
no more than 15lbs than the bottom weight.
10/10 Had
won at least a Class 3 hurdle or 12k race in Ireland or France.
9/10 Had
a break of at least 32 days from the racetrack. [32-102 days] Aux
Ptits Soins won last year and is the only horse to win a Handicap
Hurdle in the last 10 years off form more than 102 days.
9/10 Had
won between 2m11/2f and
2m6f .
9/10 Had
won earlier in the season.
8/10 Had
between 5 and 9 runs over hurdles.
8/10 Had
run no more that 4 times that season.
8/10 Were
officially rated between 128-144.
8/10 Had
a top 2 finish last time out.
7/10 Were
aged either 5 or 6 years old.
Additionally
12
of the last 15 winners carried less than 11-03.
13
of the last 15 winners had won no more than one handicap.
17
of the last 22 winners had won that season.
21
of the last 22 winners were all officially rated less than 149.
Only
two horses aged older than 9 have placed since 1999.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 4-11-57
6yo 3-8-72
7yo 1-4-58
8yo 1-4-37
9yo 1-1-23
10yo 0-1-14
11yo 0-1-5
12yo 0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 2-1-29
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-2-7
Paul
Nicholls 1-2-13
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-2-13
Contenders
– 10
year trends winner
averaged 4.4
stars
Volnay
De Thaix 33/1
Call
The Cops 33/1
Rock
The Kasbah 12/1
Commissioned 50/1
Brother
Tedd 25/1
Arbre
De Vie 12/1
Theinval 33/1
Diamond
King 8/1fav
Blood
Cotil 12/1
Ubak 33/1
Avant
Tout 25/1
Mister
Fizz 66/1
Beast
Of Burden 33/1
Waxies
Dargle 33/1
Politologue 10/1
Qewy 33/1
Days
Of Heaven 33/1
Blazer 14/1
Three
Kingdoms 40/1
Sgt
Reckless 40/1
One
For Harry 33/1
Long
House Hall 14/1
The
Romford Pele 28/1
Baoulet
Delaroque 14/1
Baron
Alco 20/1
Hunters
Hoof 25/1
Conclusions:
Don’t
think I’ve ever had the winner of this and with every runner a 3
star or better, the trends aren’t helping, however the last 3
runners have been unexposed French-breds who are in good form, so
that’s where my shortlist starts and ends. POLITILOGUE
(10/1, 5 places general) is an obvious place to start and looks to
give Paul Nicholls and Sam Twiston-Davies a double after Aux Ptits
Sons victory last year. Nicholls other horse is BAOULET DELAROQUE
(14/1, 5pl general), who’s racked up a 3 timer to get in and is a
nice weight. The 3rd selection is BARON ALCO (20/1,
6pl Coral). That’s it, i’ll put the pin away and move on to the
next race.
Betway
Queen Mother Champion Chase – Grade 1 - 2m
Overview
It
looks like the young pretender Un De Sceaux vs the old guard,
as last year’s Arkle winner lines up against the last 3 Champion
Chasers. With Special Tiara likely to take them along at a
decent clip, it will depend on whether Un De Sceaux want to
take him on and possibly cut his own throat, or sit in behind and
concentrate on his jumping which has let him down twice in the past.
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
won over extended 2m 1/2f
trip.
10/10 Had
between 7 and 14 Chase starts.
10/10 Were
younger than 10 years old.
9/10 Had
run no more than 4 times in the season.
9/10 Had
an Adjusted RPR of at least 170.
9/10 Were
racing within the last 56 days.
8/10 Had
won a Grade 1 Chase. Exceptions had won a Grade 2 Chase
8/10 Were
rated within 9lbs of the RPR top rated.
7/10 Won
a Graded Chase last time out. [Exceptions were 2nd;3rd
; and unseated, but won the race before]
Additionally
30
of the last 32 winners had won over 2m2f or more, or were C&D
winners.
30
of the last 34 winners won at a single figure price.
20
of the last 31 winners were placed at a previous festival.
15
of the last 23 winners had won at a previous festival. (19 of last
31)
14
of the last 17 winners were 5/1 or shorter.
13
of the last 14 winners were Grade 1 Chase winners.
The
last 14 winners of the Arkle to run in the following year's Champion
Chase all placed.
Only
1 winner aged greater than 10 since 1977.
Only
1 of the last 19 winners had run more than 4 times that season.
13
of the last 14 champions were beaten. [Only Master Minded retained
his title]
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-0-1
6yo 2-2-9
7yo 2-2-14
8yo 2-2-25
9yo 3-3-25
10yo 0-7-13
11yo 0-3-7
12yo 0-0-2
13yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Paul
Nicholls 3-0-14
Nicky
Henderson 2-1-8
Henry
De Bromhead (Ire) 1-3-7
Gary
Moore 1-0-2
Mick
Channon 0-2-3
Tom
George 0-1-2
Contenders
– 10
year trends winner
averaged 4.1
stars
Dodging
Bullets 14/1
Last
year’s winner, but not been the perfect year for him. I’m not too
worried about his distant 2nd to Top Gamble on his
comeback, but last years renewal wasn’t the greatest with Somersby
so close to him. Price is about right.
Felix
Yonger 16/1
In
decent form and always runs his race. He’s now 10, which is a
little old for a winner of this, but could stay on past tiring horses
if the go mental at the front.
God's
Own 28/1
Got
to Un De Sceaux over the last in the Arkle last year, before
being beaten up the hill. But hasn’t won for 18 months. Sure to run
his race and a place isn’t out of the question.
Just
Cameron 150/1
Outclassed
in this, was a 3 length 2nd to Un De Sceaux at the
Punchestown Festival, if you do fancy him.
Sire
De Grugy 14/1
Champion
2 years ago, troubled season last year, consistent this year, but
beaten by Sprinter Sacre and Un De Sceaux and may have
lost to Special Tiara in the Tingle Creek after interfering
with him over the last. He’s now 10 and place chance at best.
Sizing
Granite 33/1
Likely
to be outclassed in this.
Somersby 66/1
2nd
in the last 2 renewals, but if he’s placed, it will be due to
failures elsewhere, now a 12 year old.
Special
Tiara 16/1
Front-runner,
who finished 3rd last year after running out of puff up
the run-in. Could be taking on Un De Sceaux for that role this
year, which will harm his place chances.
Sprinter
Sacre 5/1
The
star of 2013 is hopefully back to something near to his best. He’s
won 2 Grade 2’s this year. I hope he runs well, but at 10 year’s
old, he’s on the downgrade and place chances at best.
Un
De Sceaux 4/5fav
The
best horse in the race, last year’s Arkle winner will take all the
beating if he stands up. Should really settle in behind Special
Tiara and then concentrate on his jumping, which has let him down
twice before.
Conclusions:
While
Un De Sceaux is very much the likeliest winner, is there
anything that is value to beat him, or place at a big price. I have
to be against Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy, fair
play if they do it, but they won’t be carrying my money. Special
Tiara will front run them into the ground, but isn’t likely to
win it, with place money more likely, so he’s a possibility. Felix
Yonger and Gods Own are more likely to sit it out and wait
to pick up those who’ve gone too fast, and then you never know if
they pick up more than place money. Last years winner Dodging
Bullets, has has problems this year, 14/1 looks a little big. The
tentative bet is a staying on FELIX YONGER (16/1, general),
with GODS OWN (12/1, w/o UDS, bet365) another alternative.
Glenfarclas
Cross Country Chase – Class 2 – 3m 6f
The
Cross Country race is now a level weights contest, so two of the
trends have been removed. We’ve added another.
10-year
Trends
10/10 Aged
between 8 and 12 years old.
9/10 Had won a Chase over 3
miles or more.
9/10 Had run in between 7
and 21 Chases.
9/10 Had experienced
between 1 and 6 Cross Country Chases in their career. [exception
debuted last year]
8/10 Top 4 last time out in
a Chase. (One exception was carried out and the other fell.)
8/10 Placed in a Cheltenham
or Punchestown Cross Country Chase that season.
8/10 Irish Trained.
[Exception Philip Hobbs]
Additionally
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 0-1-5
7yo 0-0-5
8yo 2-4-22
9yo 2-4-29
10yo 4-5-35
11yo 0-9-25
12yo 2-2-21
13yo 0-2-12
14yo 0-4-4
15yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Enda
Bolger (Ire) 3-8-28
Philip
Hobbs 2-2-9
Paul
Nicholls 0-1-11
Martin
Keighley 0-2-3
Gordon
Elliott 0-1-3
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-3-10
Contenders
– average winner 3.8
stars
Any
Currency 11/1
Ballyboker
Bridge 14/1
Balthazar
King 13/2
Bless
The Wings 33/1
Cantlow 20/1
Dolatulo 25/1
Josies
Orders 11/4fav
Love
Rory 40/1
Quantitativeeasing 8/1
Rivage
D’Or 25/1
Rossvoss 40/1
Sire
Collonges 11/1
Third
Intention 22/1
Uncle
Junior 33/1
Utah
De La Coquais 66/1
Valadom 80/1
Conclusions
Josies
Orders (11/4, general) is the standout horse and should win.
BALLYBOKER BRIDGE (14/1, general) is a consistent type, who
looks overpriced. I can’t let LOVE RORY (40/1, WHill) go
unbacked at that price, he’s still an 8 year old with race
experience even if his course record isn’t the best.
Fred
Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4yo)
– Grade 3 - 2m 1/2f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
achieved a RPR rating of 110 or more.
10/10 Had
run within the last 32 days (8 within 25).
9/10 Had
a flat rating of at least 83 (if rated).
9/10 Were
from a Group 1 winning flat sire. [Exception Group 3]
9/10 Had
an OR of 124-133.
9/10 Had
no more than 5 hurdle starts. (7 had just 3).
8/10 Had
won one of their last 2 starts.
7/10 Had
not won in their first 2 hurdles starts. The last 3 had.
Additionally
4
of the 10 winners were fillies, from just 17 runners. Males 6 wins
from 217.
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Paul
Nicholls 2-5-15
David
Pipe 1-4-12
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 1-1-7
Nicky
Henderson 1-0-9
Tim
Easterby 1-0-1
Alan
King 0-5-16
Tim
Vaughan 0-1-3
Jonjo
O’Neill 0-1-7
Contenders
– 10 year trends
averaged 4.1
stars
Fixe
Le Cap 14/1
Campeador 9/1
Voix
Du Reve 14/1
Chic
Name 50/1
Duke
Of Medina 33/1
Kasakh
Noir 16/1
Wolfcatcher 33/1
Romain
De Senam 25/1
Le
Curieux 18/1
Akavit 28/1
Doubly
Clever 40/1
Jaleo 12/1
Paddys
Runner 33/1
Diego
Du Charmil 7/1fav
Missy
Tata 12/1
Coo
Star Sivola 20/1
Messire
Des Obeaux 14/1
Ardamir 16/1
Harley
Rebel (5x) 25/1
Pillard 25/1
Duke
Street 25/1
Our
Thomas 20/1
Conclusions:
No
5 star horses, and I’ve tried to find an extra handle to go with,
Usually we’d go with a low weight horse, but apart from Fix Le
Kap and Campeador, I wouldn’t be hugely worried about
the weights. Ideally we want a horse that has run within the last 33
days, with a Grade 1 winning sire. That rules out all but 9 horses.
But they all have holes in. The ground is now Good, Good/Soft in
places, so I’m not going to be put off by horses that may have
avoided winter ground and have been off the track longer than usual.
MISSY TATA (14/1, Whill) and COO STAR SIVOLA (25/1,
5places, Bet365) are both such horses and are tentative selections.
JALEO (12/1, 5places, bet365) will take to the ground, however
German-bred hurdlers have a terrible record at the festival,
something like 0-100. Caveat Emptor and all that.
Weatherbys
Champion Bumper – Grade 1 – 2m 1/2f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Won
last time.
9/10 Had
won at least half of their bumpers.
9/10 Were
aged 5 or 6.
8/10 Hadn't
raced for at least 33 days. [Hairy Molly (17) and Cousin Vinny (22)]
8/10 Had
an A.RPR of 126 or more. (Exceptions had won their only start).
7/10 Had
won a bumper with 13 or more runners.
7/10 Had
won a bumper worth at least £4,000. (2 exceptions had won their only
start)
Additionally
21
of the last 23 winners had won last time out.
18
of the last 23 winners were Irish-bred.
17
of the last 23 winners were trained in Ireland.
17
of the last 23 winners had won a bumper with 14 or more runners.
16
of the last 23 winners were from the first 6 in the market.
17
of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or 6.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo 1-3-37
5yo 5-15-144
6yo 4-2-49
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-2-38
Dermot
Weld (Ire) 1-1-7
Philip
Hobbs 1-1-9
Jessica
Harrington (Ire) 1-0-2
John
Ferguson 0-1-3
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 3.8
stars
Avenir
D’Une Vie 10/1
Bacardys 14/1
Ballyandy 7/1fav
Ballymalin 50/1
Battleford 25/1
Castello
Sforza 10/1
Coeur
Blimey 16/1
Compadre 25/1
Criq
Rock 40/1
First
Figaro 14/1
Geordie
Des Champs 80/1
High
Bridge 12/1
Jot’em
Down 125/1
King
Uther 100/1
New
To This Town 11/1
Onthewesternfront 40/1
Pride
Of Lecale 40/1
Rather
Be 50/1
Spirit
Of Kayf 66/1
Turcagua 28/1
Very
Much So 20/1
Westend
Story 20/1
Winsome
Bucks 66/1
Augustus
Kate 9/1
Conclusions:
The
two horses near the top of the market who are proven on better ground
are BALLY ANDY (8/1fav, WHill) and HIGH BRIDGE (12/1,
general, 4 places). The perfect trends horses, New To This Town
and the filly Augusta Kate, are unproven on the ground, but
will be hard to stop if taking to it.
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