Sunday 21 June 2009

Trainers to follow

Richard Fahey's record this season has been pretty immense. Since March, he's sent out 369 flat runners with a 18.4% strike rate with a LSP of +£92 to a £1 stake or ROI of 125% (although this is boosted by a 66/1 at Ascot in Cosmic Sun).

If we concentrate on his top 3 jockeys his record improves even more.
Paul Hanagan 181 rides, 33 wins, ROI 133%
T Hamilton 65 rides, 12 wins, ROI 120%
Fred Tylicki 38 rides, 12 wins, ROI 229%

Hanagan has 4 rides this week for Fahey. Smarterthanutyhink, Bo McGinty and Starla Dancer at Beverley, Tuesday and William Morgan at Carlisle, Wednesday.
Tylicki rides Swinbrook at Newcastle, Friday.
Hamilton rides Starla Dancer at Hamilton, Thursday (if he runs).

The Barry Hills/ Richard Hills combination has also been pretty strong.
Since the start of the year Richard has ridden 20 horses for his father and has 8 wins. for a ROI of 256%. Michael Hills makes a profit too. 110 rides, 26 wins for 120% ROI.

So backing the Hills/Hills blindly gives a sound profit. However Barry Hills stats were immense in April/May and have tailed off a little, but after his successful Royal Ascot its certainly worth backing him in the big races.
Richard Hills record in Class 1 or 2 races is pretty hot, 6/14 with an ROI of 317%.
Michael Hills has 10/45, SR of 22% and ROI of 168%.

Michael Hills has 6 rides this week for Barry.

The final trainer to look at is Mark Johnston who has a fantastic record for getting his horses back to winning form after a break.
Horses tend to keep their fitness for a cetain period of time, about a month is generally the latest before they drop off. Johnston's record this year is 12/51 runners and a SR of 23.50%, generating an ROI of 134%. If you only look at his handicap runners his record is 10/38, SR of 26% and an ROI of 153%

His record after 90+ days off is pretty decent. 8/35 runs for an SR of 22.9% and returns of 116%, pretty decent back after a 3 month break.

Combining handicaps with 90+ days off and we have a 30% SR (167% ROI), his record being 7/23.
If you want to ge one step further his record for handicap 2 or 3 yo's male horses since March is as follows:
5/13, SR of 38.5% and a ROI of 232%, but that's getting a bit too fancy.

back Fahey with P Hanaghan, F Tylicki or T Hamilton on board.
back Michael or Richard Hills especially, riding for their father, especially in Class 1 or 2 races.
back Mark Johnston's horses in handicaps if they have been off for 90 days.

night.
VH

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