Tuesday 16 June 2009

Wednesday's Royal Ascot


A quick recap of tuesday...
Paco Boy
does stay. super run, Gladitorus was very disapointing.
Scenic Blast won as did Mastercraftsman who looked beat 1/2 a furlong from the finish, but came back superbly to beat Delegator.
Canford Cliffs hosed up too and is the horse to beat in the 2,000 Guineas next season.
Gala Evening was 4th for a nice e/w return.
And Little Scotland was 4th, so you got a payout with totesport or bet365, but not elsewhere. Yet I give mentions to the 2nds and 3rd in Di Steffano and Fratellino.. oh well. hope someone got lucky

Just a little over 2pts profit for the meeting. Happy with Gala Evening's run. Shame about Little Scotland. That cost me the placepot. Hope you took 4 places @ 14/1.

Right, onto Wednesday

2.30 Jersey Stakes - 7f for 3yo
A tricky renewal here. The winner usually comes from the top of the betting. Indicating Infiraad (5/1f) having a cracking chance. The Hills/Hills combination has been hot in recent weeks, but I don't think he's done too much in his 2 wins this term. Loch Linnhe (6/1) needs to step up for his debut win in May, and I'm happy to take him on too. Richard Hills prefers the favourite to stablemate Ouqba (10/1) although he is third top-rated. The joint top-rated horses, Gallagher (9/1) and Donativum (10/1), both decent 2-yo's. This is Gallagher's 1st run of the season and it remains to be seen whether he has trained on. Donativum ran poorly on his seasonal bough and I can't be with him. Dettori chooses Ashram (10/1) who disappointed in the Guineas. This should suit better but I'm not convinced. One that does fit the trends at a bigger price is Instalment (25/1, Stan James), however his record over 7f is 0-3, and looks a 6f horse.
I'm going to look at 2 horses to take them on with. Ocean's Minstrel (16/1) is improving with every run. His win at the Derby meet was decent enough and should bowl along in front from his low draw and his proven stamina can get him in the mix. Total Gallery (25/1, Lads) comes from a 5f race at Haydock against older horses, but both his excellent 6f wins also indicated (by way of in-running comments) that 6f is his limit. His trainer reckons he's a 5f horse, so I'm a little perplexed as to why he would run him at 7f for the first time and not the King's Stand over 5f on tuesday. A conundrum indeed, Watson.
Selection - Ocean's Minstrel (16/1 e/w, bet365, betfred).

3.05 Windsor Forest Stakes - 1m for Fillies
Looks a straight shootout between Lush Lashes (13/8f) who finally got some deserved wins at the end of last season, and Heaven Sent (5/2f). A 3rd horse to throw into the equation is Eva's Request (9/1, vcbet, Ladbrokes), however will like it a bit wet in the morning as she has no form on good-firm. Difficult decision. If the ground softens, then I'd take a punt on Eva's Request, but can't make a decision until then.
No selection

3.45 Prince Of Wales' Stakes - 1m2f
Never be afraid of foreign horses.. They usually end up a bigger price than they are entitled to be due to good old English xenophobia. Now the 2 with impressive French form are Vision D'Etat (7/2, vcbet) and Never On Sunday (4/1). Both excellent horses with results to match. Favourite Tartan Bearer (7/4f) of course has his chances but I'm not keen. I'd be happy to back Twice Over (8/1) but he doesn't win too much either.
Selection - Never On Sunday (4/1) as his stable is in form and Vision D'Etat may want further.

4.20 Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap) - 1m
30 runners up the straight mile. We must avoid horses drawn in the middle say 9-21 as thay have an awful record of even getting in the frame. Forgotten Voice (9/2f), great draw, great form, great chance. Far too short for me, remember handicap good thing Bankable from last year!!!
A few of these have won me money so I mustn't get sentimental over them. I could mull for hours over most of the field but this is a good trends race so if we combine form and stats we can only come up with one horse from 30. Mia's Boy (14/1). The draw is good and he is always there or there abouts. Ryan Moore rides him today and I'm pretty hopeful.
Selection - Mia's Boy (14/1, bet365 - 5places) Others to pay 5 places are totesport, boylesports, paddypower and stan james.

4.55 Queen Mary Stakes - 5f for 2y0 Filles
Another race where bare form and trends lead to only 2 selections. Don't Tell Mary (9/2, vcbet, Ladbrokes) and Misheer (11/1, vcbet, bluesquare). The favourite, Rose Blossom (4/1f), doesn't impress me too much.
Selection - Split stakes between Don't Tell Mary (9/2) and Misheer (11/1).

5.30 Sandringham Handicap - 1m for 3yo Fillies
Tough race to finish. I do like the top 2 in the market on Photographic (5/1f) and Moneycantbuymelove (15/2). Some of the would be challenger have somew good form on soft. But it ain't soft, so they are too risky. Sigh. Leave it alone is the best advice I can give.
Selection - Moneycantbuymelove (15/2) and Photographic (5/1f.


So that's that. Mia's Boy is my best bet, very little to be too confident about in the other races. I'll try and find some winners at the other meetings but that will probably be nearer 1pm if I make it at all.
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